Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

torero

Week 11

Recommended Posts

Finally a setup appeared after waiting so long from vacation! Taking a short here at the break of the bear flag. Looking for 9140 as possible target. 8933 is measured target for this bear flag.

 

FOREXPLANE-GBPUSD-240-MIN-BEAR-FLAG-BREAKDOWN-SHORT.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn;t realize we were already at 50% retrace on daily. Wow, getting rusty from vacation. Being on vacation sure takes the routine out of doing the right thing.

 

FOREXPLANE-GBPUSD-DAILY-50-RETRACE.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, doesn't take long to slip out of the groove huh?

 

These major European pairs are good buy candidates on pullbacks. Nothing has changed out there to offer the Dollar a leg up really.

 

I guess if you're jobbing then maybe it's a slightly different perspective, but you gotta be fleet of foot taking that option in current circumstances.

 

On a side not, I see this place now has a FX chat facility. Looked in on it earlier, but no-one home. I guess most folks on here are heavy indx ftrs players judging by the content, does that FX room ever attract personnel?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It just opened up so no one knows about it yet. I haven't gone there myself until there is someone else I can chat with (I can chat with myself in the comfortable of my chair without the chat room thank you LOL).

 

Yes, the action has been very messy lately, no direction. I saw a bear flag but it turns out there are lots of resistance sitting just below the flag. I take it was a consolidation/reversal working. I'll be looking for buys now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It just opened up so no one knows about it yet. I haven't gone there myself until there is someone else I can chat with (I can chat with myself in the comfortable of my chair without the chat room thank you LOL).

 

Gotcha. Yeah if it's new I guess it'll take a while for folks to cotton on.

 

Agree, not much outside range activity on the European's. The cute cookies are merely soaking up the supply under these topside stop builds. If those blow, we'll get a decent run no doubt.

 

Yen's been the place to be of late. Plenty goin on across there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, been watching GBPJPY and it's trending quite nicely. Unfortunately, I'm a one-woman, oops, one-currency man (LOL) so I can watch but can't touch it HA HA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:) I hear ya.

 

I'm not so loyal. If it lifts it's skirts, I'll pay it some attention!!

 

Hey, looks like we christened the FX room just now. Anna-Maria sprayed the walls with dubious grafitti. I best report that dishonorable behaviour to the site boss man!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I missed it the chat room, it's empty now. I just came back from running some errands. I see tex is still lurking about although she's been silent for past week or so. Serious business to attend to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ha ha ha, yeah she's under pressure! :eek:

 

Buk's back home Stateside till mid 2nd Quarter, so she's on double shifts LOL.

 

Nah, as is evident, there's been plenty volatility of late on the Yen stuff, so lots to keep on top of. No doubt she'll slope back in when it all exhales.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wish her lots of luck from me if she ever take a break or move her eyes from the screen.

 

I should move over to GBPJPY until GBPUSD gets out of this consolidation. Let's see what I can pick up tomorrow at London open.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There was your trigger on that 4 hour bar at the dble bottom, no?

 

They've been accumulating (adding to) this along with the Euro all month. Dollar's in a hole against these 2 European majors, not a Bull in sight at present.

 

This is the run for the week now. Dollar longs are well out of sight on this step up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I prefer to wait for the pullback back to the peak if possible to confirm the breakout is real. It's possible it might be over for other pairs but never know... I have to follow what I see, the entry and the target. Possible the pullback might not happen until early next week. We'll see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fair play.

 

Buddy of yours JimmyMac (McErney) from "the other place" say's Hi ;)

 

He thought you'd gotten yourself kidnapped or somethin?!

 

I guess he's been lonesome over there LOL :D

 

 

That'll teach him to hang out in darkened dingey back alley flop houses!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I prefer to wait for the pullback back to the peak if possible to confirm the breakout is real.
An interesting dilemma, not just in FX either.

 

I am a very cautious trader and I also used to wait for a re-test and confirmation of new S or R before taking the trade. These days, although I still class myself as ultra-cautious, there is an added factor I take on-board. And that it momentum.

 

Momentum is a tough one on FX where you don't get Volume to play with and though I have played with using tick pressure as a proxy for Volume, it does not in my view come close to 'real' Volume. And that's discounting the argument over just how reliable any data vendor's tick data is going to be on FX anyhow.

 

So, in my increasingly tough battle to get things simpler rather than more complex I decided to use (for FX only) an additional criteria for these potential re-test areas. You'll need to test this in your own timeframe to see if it makes sense for you, but I work from a daily down through an hourly, 15 min and then finally 5 min execution level chart.

 

If the bar through the potential re-test level is 'strong' i.e. has a H-L range at least three times the 5 period MA of H-L then I don't wait for a re-test. Sure, it still catches me out, but less than it doesn't. Stop is always for me 5 pips away from the S/R level I'm trading. Very, very tight.

 

If the bar through the potential re-test level is 'weak'i.e. has a H-L range no greater then the 5 period MA of H-L then I do wait for a re-test. Again, stop at 5 pips away from the S/R level I'm trading. Again, this isn't always going to break for me, but it does more than it doesn't.

 

By factoring in this additional interpretation (and that's all it is) of momentum, I get into far more FX trades than I would by simply waiting for a re-test regardless of current market action.

 

Where I refer to S & R levels of course you can imply I am talking about any basic charting break (triangles, rectangles, triples, doubles - whatever).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Fair play.

 

Buddy of yours JimmyMac (McErney) from "the other place" say's Hi ;)

 

He thought you'd gotten yourself kidnapped or somethin?!

 

I guess he's been lonesome over there LOL :D

 

 

That'll teach him to hang out in darkened dingey back alley flop houses!

 

Ah, tell him I say hi and that I'll be joining the dingy flop houses again soon LOL!

 

Been getting rusty and trying to get back in slowly.

 

Hi Bramble, FX is tricky when it comes to breakouts. S/R are reliable but those announcement bursts can ignore these levels so easily that sometimes we have to be careful. Never know where this thrust will stop and start. I always want to make sure there is a higher high forming before taking that long to have smart money behind me instead of in front of me. I'll review your method diligently to see how it works. Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Bramble, FX is tricky when it comes to breakouts. S/R are reliable but those announcement bursts can ignore these levels so easily that sometimes we have to be careful. Never know where this thrust will stop and start. I always want to make sure there is a higher high forming before taking that long to have smart money behind me instead of in front of me. I'll review your method diligently to see how it works. Thanks.

 

This is wise advice. I can give you an excellent example of this in the following chart. I pieced it together from another analysis I completed recently, but it's of relevance to the current discussion, so I thought I'd publicize this part of it. I apologize for some of the text being truncated. I shrunk the image and inserted the current chart in it so that it would all fit here for easy viewing. The truncated text basically said that after the pull-back, a larger thrust up is observed.

 

These two patterns are, as far as I'm concerned, very close to identical. They're quite common, particularly on the faster time frames (although less reliable on the faster frames too). This chart is based on the 4-hour time-frame, so it's quite reliable. The basic features are illustrated. What we saw on Friday fits this pattern almost precisely, and would suggest the next move will be higher.

 

68445fbcef04d26e.gif

 

Hi Bramble. You will notice that, just as Torero suggested might occur, there was a pull-back after this breakout - precisely as this pattern suggested there would be. The depth of the pull-back might not have been as large had this breakout not occurred at the end of a week. I suspect profit taking and pre-weekend position scuttles were probably to blame more than the CPI news that came out earlier. However, the important point here is that price did in fact retrace all the way back and touch support. If you take a quick look at the hourly charts at the end of the day, you will see that a pinochio (pin-bar) pattern formed, possibly opening the door on Sunday for a move back up the ladder to resume this leg higher.

 

I can also see your point. Sometimes, these breakouts don't return back to prior support levels and it pays to catch the ride as soon as you can. In these cases, if you play the pull-back game, you'd just have to wait for the next train. But then, as we all know, there are a never-ending stream of trains to ride.

 

Whatever works best for you is the best to use.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great charts, cowpip, and nice to see you back. It´s one thing I´ve learned over and over from past mistakes is I used to get in early (yes, your average eager beaver), end up paying for the risk higher, thus lowering my R-R ratio. So, better to see the pullback form instead of guessing where my stop order should be. I´ll be watching closely on Sunday night for this setup to work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • VRA Vera Bradley stock watch, pull back to 5.08 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?VRA
    • MU Micron stock watch, pull back to 102.83 gap support area with high trade quality at https://stockconsultant.com/?MU
    • ACLX Arcellx stock watch, trending at 84.6 support area with bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?ACLX
    • Here’s something few are talking about: The Chinese are printing money like it's going out of style. Not that you'd hear about it in the mainstream news. But Bitcoin knows.   Bitcoin always knows.   Here’s the thing…   When the Chinese government prints money to paper over the cracks, their smart money doesn't sit around waiting to get devalued.   It usually flows into three things: Bitcoin, gold, and dollars.   After years of being beaten down, gold's having one of its best years in decades. But here's the secret -- whatever gold does, Bitcoin's going to do it bigger.   Much bigger.   Since last November, when China started their printing spree, Bitcoin's been moving in near-perfect correlation with the People's Bank of China's balance sheet. Over 80% correlation, maybe even 90%.   Again, few are talking about it.   But here's why this matters right now: This could be the beginning of a huge breakout in the crypto markets.   Bitcoin broke above its July high, and historically, that's led to new all-time highs over 90% of the time. The only times it failed? COVID and the 2022 bear market.   That's it.” – Chris Campbell   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/     
    • Originally Answered: How can I compete with people who are better than me in every way?   So you want to outcompete people who are smarter, better looking and more experienced than you?   No problem!   All you have to do is outwork them.   Will Smith said, "if we both get on a treadmill either you're going to get off first or I'm going to die trying."     Most people just aren't willing to work that hard. Sure, they'll show up for the job interview and maybe practice in front of the mirror for a few minutes, but they won't do hours and hours of research and prepare for weeks. They won't wake up early and stay up late working on their dreams.   So while all those smart, good-looking, experienced people are waiting around for the next opportunity to come their way, you can outwork them and create your own opportunities.   In a few years, you'll be that "smart" person everyone looks up to. But you'll be different. You'll know it was your hard work, your inner strength and your commitment to living a great life that made you successful and brilliant - not luck or good genes.” – Tom Corson-Knowles, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.