Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

torero

Week 11

Recommended Posts

Finally a setup appeared after waiting so long from vacation! Taking a short here at the break of the bear flag. Looking for 9140 as possible target. 8933 is measured target for this bear flag.

 

FOREXPLANE-GBPUSD-240-MIN-BEAR-FLAG-BREAKDOWN-SHORT.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn;t realize we were already at 50% retrace on daily. Wow, getting rusty from vacation. Being on vacation sure takes the routine out of doing the right thing.

 

FOREXPLANE-GBPUSD-DAILY-50-RETRACE.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, doesn't take long to slip out of the groove huh?

 

These major European pairs are good buy candidates on pullbacks. Nothing has changed out there to offer the Dollar a leg up really.

 

I guess if you're jobbing then maybe it's a slightly different perspective, but you gotta be fleet of foot taking that option in current circumstances.

 

On a side not, I see this place now has a FX chat facility. Looked in on it earlier, but no-one home. I guess most folks on here are heavy indx ftrs players judging by the content, does that FX room ever attract personnel?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It just opened up so no one knows about it yet. I haven't gone there myself until there is someone else I can chat with (I can chat with myself in the comfortable of my chair without the chat room thank you LOL).

 

Yes, the action has been very messy lately, no direction. I saw a bear flag but it turns out there are lots of resistance sitting just below the flag. I take it was a consolidation/reversal working. I'll be looking for buys now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  torero said:
It just opened up so no one knows about it yet. I haven't gone there myself until there is someone else I can chat with (I can chat with myself in the comfortable of my chair without the chat room thank you LOL).

 

Gotcha. Yeah if it's new I guess it'll take a while for folks to cotton on.

 

Agree, not much outside range activity on the European's. The cute cookies are merely soaking up the supply under these topside stop builds. If those blow, we'll get a decent run no doubt.

 

Yen's been the place to be of late. Plenty goin on across there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, been watching GBPJPY and it's trending quite nicely. Unfortunately, I'm a one-woman, oops, one-currency man (LOL) so I can watch but can't touch it HA HA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:) I hear ya.

 

I'm not so loyal. If it lifts it's skirts, I'll pay it some attention!!

 

Hey, looks like we christened the FX room just now. Anna-Maria sprayed the walls with dubious grafitti. I best report that dishonorable behaviour to the site boss man!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I missed it the chat room, it's empty now. I just came back from running some errands. I see tex is still lurking about although she's been silent for past week or so. Serious business to attend to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ha ha ha, yeah she's under pressure! :eek:

 

Buk's back home Stateside till mid 2nd Quarter, so she's on double shifts LOL.

 

Nah, as is evident, there's been plenty volatility of late on the Yen stuff, so lots to keep on top of. No doubt she'll slope back in when it all exhales.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wish her lots of luck from me if she ever take a break or move her eyes from the screen.

 

I should move over to GBPJPY until GBPUSD gets out of this consolidation. Let's see what I can pick up tomorrow at London open.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There was your trigger on that 4 hour bar at the dble bottom, no?

 

They've been accumulating (adding to) this along with the Euro all month. Dollar's in a hole against these 2 European majors, not a Bull in sight at present.

 

This is the run for the week now. Dollar longs are well out of sight on this step up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I prefer to wait for the pullback back to the peak if possible to confirm the breakout is real. It's possible it might be over for other pairs but never know... I have to follow what I see, the entry and the target. Possible the pullback might not happen until early next week. We'll see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fair play.

 

Buddy of yours JimmyMac (McErney) from "the other place" say's Hi ;)

 

He thought you'd gotten yourself kidnapped or somethin?!

 

I guess he's been lonesome over there LOL :D

 

 

That'll teach him to hang out in darkened dingey back alley flop houses!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  torero said:
I prefer to wait for the pullback back to the peak if possible to confirm the breakout is real.
An interesting dilemma, not just in FX either.

 

I am a very cautious trader and I also used to wait for a re-test and confirmation of new S or R before taking the trade. These days, although I still class myself as ultra-cautious, there is an added factor I take on-board. And that it momentum.

 

Momentum is a tough one on FX where you don't get Volume to play with and though I have played with using tick pressure as a proxy for Volume, it does not in my view come close to 'real' Volume. And that's discounting the argument over just how reliable any data vendor's tick data is going to be on FX anyhow.

 

So, in my increasingly tough battle to get things simpler rather than more complex I decided to use (for FX only) an additional criteria for these potential re-test areas. You'll need to test this in your own timeframe to see if it makes sense for you, but I work from a daily down through an hourly, 15 min and then finally 5 min execution level chart.

 

If the bar through the potential re-test level is 'strong' i.e. has a H-L range at least three times the 5 period MA of H-L then I don't wait for a re-test. Sure, it still catches me out, but less than it doesn't. Stop is always for me 5 pips away from the S/R level I'm trading. Very, very tight.

 

If the bar through the potential re-test level is 'weak'i.e. has a H-L range no greater then the 5 period MA of H-L then I do wait for a re-test. Again, stop at 5 pips away from the S/R level I'm trading. Again, this isn't always going to break for me, but it does more than it doesn't.

 

By factoring in this additional interpretation (and that's all it is) of momentum, I get into far more FX trades than I would by simply waiting for a re-test regardless of current market action.

 

Where I refer to S & R levels of course you can imply I am talking about any basic charting break (triangles, rectangles, triples, doubles - whatever).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  milliard said:
Fair play.

 

Buddy of yours JimmyMac (McErney) from "the other place" say's Hi ;)

 

He thought you'd gotten yourself kidnapped or somethin?!

 

I guess he's been lonesome over there LOL :D

 

 

That'll teach him to hang out in darkened dingey back alley flop houses!

 

Ah, tell him I say hi and that I'll be joining the dingy flop houses again soon LOL!

 

Been getting rusty and trying to get back in slowly.

 

Hi Bramble, FX is tricky when it comes to breakouts. S/R are reliable but those announcement bursts can ignore these levels so easily that sometimes we have to be careful. Never know where this thrust will stop and start. I always want to make sure there is a higher high forming before taking that long to have smart money behind me instead of in front of me. I'll review your method diligently to see how it works. Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  torero said:
Hi Bramble, FX is tricky when it comes to breakouts. S/R are reliable but those announcement bursts can ignore these levels so easily that sometimes we have to be careful. Never know where this thrust will stop and start. I always want to make sure there is a higher high forming before taking that long to have smart money behind me instead of in front of me. I'll review your method diligently to see how it works. Thanks.

 

This is wise advice. I can give you an excellent example of this in the following chart. I pieced it together from another analysis I completed recently, but it's of relevance to the current discussion, so I thought I'd publicize this part of it. I apologize for some of the text being truncated. I shrunk the image and inserted the current chart in it so that it would all fit here for easy viewing. The truncated text basically said that after the pull-back, a larger thrust up is observed.

 

These two patterns are, as far as I'm concerned, very close to identical. They're quite common, particularly on the faster time frames (although less reliable on the faster frames too). This chart is based on the 4-hour time-frame, so it's quite reliable. The basic features are illustrated. What we saw on Friday fits this pattern almost precisely, and would suggest the next move will be higher.

 

68445fbcef04d26e.gif

 

Hi Bramble. You will notice that, just as Torero suggested might occur, there was a pull-back after this breakout - precisely as this pattern suggested there would be. The depth of the pull-back might not have been as large had this breakout not occurred at the end of a week. I suspect profit taking and pre-weekend position scuttles were probably to blame more than the CPI news that came out earlier. However, the important point here is that price did in fact retrace all the way back and touch support. If you take a quick look at the hourly charts at the end of the day, you will see that a pinochio (pin-bar) pattern formed, possibly opening the door on Sunday for a move back up the ladder to resume this leg higher.

 

I can also see your point. Sometimes, these breakouts don't return back to prior support levels and it pays to catch the ride as soon as you can. In these cases, if you play the pull-back game, you'd just have to wait for the next train. But then, as we all know, there are a never-ending stream of trains to ride.

 

Whatever works best for you is the best to use.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great charts, cowpip, and nice to see you back. It´s one thing I´ve learned over and over from past mistakes is I used to get in early (yes, your average eager beaver), end up paying for the risk higher, thus lowering my R-R ratio. So, better to see the pullback form instead of guessing where my stop order should be. I´ll be watching closely on Sunday night for this setup to work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.