China GDP ---> AUD ---> What Do?

[lastninja2 10]

Anyone got thoughts on the upcoming GDP data out of China, expected 7.4%?

I am considering getting up early (UK 3am) to possibly take a shot at AUD.

 

Just not quite sure of my plan yet. Last data release was in July, GDP came out marginally below expectation.(7.6% vs 7.7% Exp I think it was).

 

I've looked over the charts and the main initial move was a powerful rally of AUD. I cannot quite recall the market sentiment at that time but my reasonable assumption is, the market was looking forward to PBOC bringing out further stimulus.

 

Actually, it seems the sentiment this time around is somewhat different - I am doubting the ability of PBOC to take action any time soon... keep reading that they are after yuan stability, particularly with leadership transition upcoming, not only in China but US too.

 

So provisionally I am looking to play it straight: If it beats expectations, buy AUD, if it falls short, sell AUD.

 

But welcome any alternative ideas ....?

[Obsidian 10]

keep an eye on Australian CPI and HSBC manufacturing PMI data on Wednesday...1.04 is not easy to break