Daily Candlestick Triggers

[MrPaul 10]

Hey Everyone,

 

I'm going to post a chart here every time a valid day trade-able candlestick trigger appears on the Russell 2k futures. This thread is intended for people who want to learn about day trading with candlesticks and also because I am bored easily and this is fun for me.

 

All charts I post here will be off actual signals I take during the trading session so thats why it will be mostly limited to the ER2 contract. But if anyone has any other ideas feel free to post up.

First chart May 13th 2007 10min period ER2

 

Within the red circle we see a shooting star candle, confirmation of this bearish candle is made with the second red arrow 2 candles later. This is important; In order for the shooting star candle to be deemed valid it must have a candle close below it, not just penetrate the lows "intra-candle". The stop is placed mentally above the shooting star.

 

If you miss that because you were takin' a pee and then your grandma called and you had to chat just for 40 minutes that's okay because there was a continuation pattern OR for you a second chance signal made by a doji and a close below it marked by the third and fourth red arrows. Remember for any signal to be made valid a CLOSE must be made by the candle after it. This is the technical signal to take action. The stop here is a few ticks above the doji high.

 

Second chart May 13th 2007 30min period (for you patient people:p )

 

A spinning top/Doji type candle form showing indecision among us traders exemplified by the blue arrow. The next candle makes a close below that low signaling a short. Why is this? Because doji's show indecision and we have made up our minds that price is better off below that point by closing it below the doji (there are still many of us waiting to join in that sentiment!) shown by the green arrow.

 

Notice that on the 30 minute price never closes above it's previous 30min high!

 

 

Okay, thats it for today these post should get better as time goes on and I become less stupid...

[walterw 10]

Nice and simple Mr Paul, as at this point I am thirstie of simplification... I atach another setup there... could that also be valid ? cheers Walter.

[trader273 10]

I'd be careful of using candle patterns as reversal of the trend. I did this for a while and got killed. Had some ups, but mostly downs. The trick is to use the candle patterns to go with the overall trend. It is weird since all the books and websites show candle patterns as calling tops and bottoms. But if you look at a chart they do call tops and bottoms, but how many false signals were in between. If you fight the path of the train you will get run over.

Just my .02

[walterw 10]

trader you have a good point, now candles patterns is one of the many ways to see price action, if you add to that volume analisis plus key levels I believe you would have something more robust.... now unfortunatly more complicated too... jejejeje what Mr Paul is showing is how the overrall market sentiment was clearly talking thru price action.... not necesarily a candle pattern... I think there is a great diference to look for price action THRU candle patterns than looking just for candle patterns by itself, we all know it want make you succesfull... cheers Walter.

[MrPaul 10]

Thanks for the input guys

 

I will typically only take a reversal trade on a confirmed long wicked hammer,shooting star, or engulfment at a cluster of S/R, pivot levels, or range fade.

 

I have a good example from Friday. Range bound day with premarket news. Market forms a high wave and then shooting star candle (blue arrow) indicating lacking demand for higher prices, I wait until a lower close confirms the star (red arrow) and go short.

 

Price trades down until long wicked hammer forms showing demand accelerating and supply drying up near that area, price trades up until a bearish engulfing (blue arrow) takes over indicating that supply is greater than demand and short sellers have stepped in. I will typically trade the close of an engulfing candle but in a low volume environment it is often best to get extra confirmation of momentum through a closing candle (red arrow).

 

Once again price trades down unto an area of known temp support and a hammer forms(blue arrow) confirmation is made a couple candles after that (red arrow) and short sellers get squeezed into the close.

 

Hope that helps the people who are still getting an idea of how to use candles intra day. The important thing Walter and Trader273 mentioned was that price is not reacting to the candles and you always must consider the overall sentiment and trend of the market.

 

Price does not reverse because of a hammer, thats just the imprint price leaves behind when an overwhelming number of buyers enter the market and the sidelined players then join in to fuel the momentum upward.

 

The secret to candlestick trading is not just being able to identify a hammer vs a flying zebra (haha), it is knowing when to use them as a tool in an overall scheme.

[MrPaul 10]

Today was a great day to be using Candlestick and volume analysis. There were many setups today that could have been taken, some very high probability,some medium...Looking at a few charts here you may notice something interesting.

First chart May 14th 2007 5min period ER2

 

Right at the open on a 5 minute chart we see a rejection of price formed by a hanging man candle (red arrow). A hanging man candle shows that although price traded lower during that period long positions were accumulated by some of us and if price trades any lower we might have to liquidate therefore fueling any downward momentum. In the case of a hanging man it is essential like all other candle patterns that you wait for confirmation. That confirmation was made by a close below the low of the hanging man (blue arrow), basically putting any one who was long in a bad spot. A good place to take profits was when the supply started to dry up and demand began to pick up forming a hammer like candle near the bottom on the swing.

 

The next pair of red arrows shows us that higher prices are not really making us feel good and we wanted to wait and see what might happen before committing too much money. A few narrow range candles kept us waiting until we finally decide that lower prices is where it's at. This is indicated by a close below the doji (blue arrow).

 

Second chart May 14th 2007 10min period

 

Lets look at that second trade on a 10min chart, it's much more clear and is the reason I like to monitor the 5,10,15, and 30 minute charts at the same time. You never know on what time frame the best signal will appear. On this chart we see much more clearly a doji candle form (red arrow) and a close below it (blue arrow) indicate a trigger to sell. It is also very clear that price at that level was not attracting the attention it wanted because volume was like "See ya later, I'd rather be headed South..catch ya' then". Of course if your charts actually talk to you that may be a cause for concern.

 

None the less I wanted to stress the importance of watching multiple time frames in real time together to find where the clearest signals for that day are being produced throughout the day.

 

Third chart May 14th 2007 30min period

 

Speakin' of, remember yesterday where the 30min popped off a doji and never closed above it's last period highs after closing below it? Today it was on vacation and didn't feel like giving much indication at all. The 30 minute time frame trader was left scratching their head while the 5 and 10 minute traders were filling bank bags. Much the opposite of yesterday...

 

Oh and on a side note some of you may be thinking well that's great but what about all that other action that happened after the moves you pointed out! Well all I can say is that movement really caught me off guard and as I read on Dr. Steenbargers blog earlier today you shouldn't be confusing market movement with market opportunity.

 

[walterw 10]

Very good stuff MR Paul ¡¡¡ simple and powerfull, the best of two worlds perfectly combined.... Candles (price action) and Volume (Smart money analisis ).... in a very neet simple presentation.... I perfectly agree on looking on multiple time frames, you know, probably this week has been the first in years I am looking and enjoying time based charts... they show much better this candle and volume patterns.... I honestly enjoy the 5 min chart as I like to trade more small time frames... please keep sharing, very good educational inputs ¡¡ thanks Walter.

[walterw 10]

Mr Paul : can you add on the next charts you post the S&R levels you are taking into acct... (horizontal lines of pivots, mp levels, etc) that could show the entire trio... S&R, Candle and Volume... cheers Walter.

[Robert2617 10]

I just bought this book.

 

Candlestick Charting Explained: Timeless... - Google Book Search

[walterw 10]

you can also find a very simple and clear introduction to candles here Chart Analysis - StockCharts.com

[MrPaul 10]

Mr Paul : can you add on the next charts you post the S&R levels you are taking into acct... (horizontal lines of pivots, mp levels, etc) that could show the entire trio... S&R, Candle and Volume... cheers Walter.

 

Good Idea Walter, I'll do that from now on...

[brownsfan019 17]

If you guys are going to get serious about candlestick trading, you need to read Steve Nison's books. Just start there. He has the best books on candlesticks hands down.

 

Idea for MrPaul and others looking/trading with candles and volume - if you like the combo, simply use Volume Based Charts instead of time based charts. You will find:

• Time based charts will NOT allow you to participate in fast moving markets as the candles can become VERY skewed.
  
• Do you normally stare at your watch while trading? If not, time based charts have a fundamental flaw.
  
• Why take up screen space with a chart that has candles and volume separated, when it can be combined into one neatly presented chart?
  

Keep in mind guys, candlestick trading is my bread and butter. If you are new to this, make sure you study it first and get confident before placing real money on the line.

 

A few pointers:

• Decide if you are trading with the trend or against it. Candles can be used in both scenarios.
  
• If you trade against the trend, make sure you have a hard stop in place and honor that stop.
  
• On an intra-day basis, be 'flexible' with your candle patterns. In other words, do not sit and wait for the picture perfect hammer.
  

I'm sure that a simple volume based candlestick chart will not be 'enough' for some people reading this, so good luck with finding the right indicator(s) to use in conjuction with this. There's always going to be trades that the indicator(s) 'save' you from and others that prevent you from making money.

 

Once again, the key is consistency.

[walterw 10]

Brow : if you use volume based charts you are not able to measure the diference on volume from bar to bar.... time based will let you see on the same period what diferent volume you got on each bar... also as ( I am ) making a paralel study of vsa on all this cant switch to volume based bars... now what I supose you are looking to (maybe) is how the volume in each bar had diferent spreads (h-l) wich could tell you what was the volume performance on price action... wich is beyond this thread an I think we want to keep it on Mr Paul candle stick /volume stuff here.... Brow I encourage you to start a thread on what you are doing, I think you got good valuable information to input, we are a growing comunity, all aproaches are very usefull indeed and we are all somehow interacting and coming to what individually fits best on its trading plan... cheers Walter.

[brownsfan019 17]

Brow : if you use volume based charts you are not able to measure the diference on volume from bar to bar.... time based will let you see on the same period what diferent volume you got on each bar.

 

Walter - I see how the immediate reaction is that you will not be able to see large volume surges. Allow me to explain how the volume based bars do in fact 'show' you the volume surges - when candles are printing quickly, that in turn means volume is surging. When candles are taking a while to print, you 'see' that volume is just not there.

 

I think I mentioned this before here, but volume based charts were by far the one thing that took my trading to a high level. I was using time based charts and while it was decent, slightly adjusting the chart to reflect volume and not time, took my trading to the next level.

 

I understand that most traders want a purely mechanical way of trading, but in my experience that is very difficult to do. You have to be able to visually look at a chart and make a snap decision. I have no idea how some guys here are able to do that with indicators galore on their screens, along with a couple charts, etc. Paralysis by Analysis at it's best.

 

I would suggest MrPaul and others that are able to, also test your strategies on a volume based chart as well. The worst thing that happens is that you are unable to use Volume charts. The best thing that happens is that your trading catapults to the next level, as it did for me. I'll take that risk to reward setup all day!

[Robert2617 10]

Brownsfan, I am interested in what you are sharing with us. What volume per bar do you use or how do you determine what volume per bar to use? I'm very new to day-trading so I'm not set in my ways or locked into any particular style yet. I think your points are well stated and merit their own thread. This could be a huge breakthrough for me and others. Let the market tell you what it is going to do through volume candles. I like it.

 

Maybe SoulTrader or another mod will be so kind as to split this thread into a new topic so we don't hijack MrPaul's thread.

[Soultrader 12]

Tingull started a new thread on volume based candles so any topic related to it should be posted there for now. Very interesting topic brownsfan... I am definitely going to look into this myself. Just wondering if TS has this feature? I am actually a little familiar with this as Ive seen charts with fat candles and narrow candles (high volume vs low volume) so I am assuming it is the same.

[walterw 10]

Soul noup... volume bars brow is telling have the same volume each and every bar, the fat or smaller candle are equivolume candles, wich are time based candles wich take diferent size of volume per bar to take size of candle, wich happens to be I am about to introduce a new indicator that will do a sort of equivolume thing.... but still working on it, it will show the best of this two worlds (candle/volume).... wich finally also will intergrate some vsa concepts, but easier to read.... cheers Walter.

[MrPaul 10]

Today was quadruple expiration but Candles did light the way.

 

I did not trade today but these signals were good and could have been taken advantage of. The 15min chart today was the winner, the 5,10, and 30 were more foggy and didn't print clear signals like the 15 minute did.

 

Chart for March 16th 2007 15min ER2

 

An hour into the trading day price approached the "Previous days high"(black line) and formed a shooting star (red arrow) and was confirmed with a lower closing low (blue arrow) therefore displaying that demand for higher prices had dried up at a resistance level.

 

Price traded lower until the daily S1 was reached (black line), breached S1 trapping late sellers and forcing them to liquidate forming a hammer (red arrow) then confirming the hammer with a higher closing high (blue arrow).

 

Although it must be noted that momentum was weak after the hammer so smarter/quicker profit taking was warranted.

 

Thats all for the day hope everyone has a fun weekend

[Anonymous 11]

If you guys are going to get serious about candlestick trading, you need to read Steve Nison's books. Just start there. He has the best books on candlesticks hands down.

 

Idea for MrPaul and others looking/trading with candles and volume - if you like the combo, simply use Volume Based Charts instead of time based charts. You will find:

• Time based charts will NOT allow you to participate in fast moving markets as the candles can become VERY skewed.
  
• Do you normally stare at your watch while trading? If not, time based charts have a fundamental flaw.
  
• Why take up screen space with a chart that has candles and volume separated, when it can be combined into one neatly presented chart?
  

Keep in mind guys, candlestick trading is my bread and butter. If you are new to this, make sure you study it first and get confident before placing real money on the line.

 

A few pointers:

• Decide if you are trading with the trend or against it. Candles can be used in both scenarios.
  
• If you trade against the trend, make sure you have a hard stop in place and honor that stop.
  
• On an intra-day basis, be 'flexible' with your candle patterns. In other words, do not sit and wait for the picture perfect hammer.
  

I'm sure that a simple volume based candlestick chart will not be 'enough' for some people reading this, so good luck with finding the right indicator(s) to use in conjuction with this. There's always going to be trades that the indicator(s) 'save' you from and others that prevent you from making money.

 

Once again, the key is consistency.

 

Just a couple of questions and observations:

 

1. BF, what do you think about Mark's approach? His knowledge of candle trading is far beyond what most sites have to offer? (Mark ((NA)) is a trader on another forum-I am sure you know of whom I speak)

 

2. Have you done any research into WRB's - Wide Range Bodies ?

 

* I like the idea of a chart picking up speed as activity picks up. But one needs to be able to compare volume in x period of vs volume in period x+1. Time is the fourth dimension. It is not a random concept.

 

Your body knows when to sleep and when to be hungry. Your body knows when to age and when to die. Time is elemental.

 

If you are looking at volume candles and you say the chart is speeding up, are you measuring distance X time ? So time plays a role in the perception of the chart being created. But with no way to make relative comparisons. Plus, the close of a period (1 min , 2 hour, or day) is the last agreed upon price for that TIME. Note a certain volume number. That is, the emini closes at 4:15 regardless of contracts traded. And since this the last price that buyers and sellers come together, certainly it is of some import.

[Anonymous 11]

Here's a nice example of a bullish white hammer pattern and an invalid hammer pattern (as per the pattern being discussed) .

 

Remember: a hammer is hammer line until and only if it completes thus transforming into a hammer pattern.

[brownsfan019 17]

Just a couple of questions and observations:

 

1. BF, what do you think about Mark's approach? His knowledge of candle trading is far beyond what most sites have to offer? (Mark ((NA)) is a trader on another forum-I am sure you know of whom I speak)

 

2. Have you done any research into WRB's - Wide Range Bodies ?

 

* I like the idea of a chart picking up speed as activity picks up. But one needs to be able to compare volume in x period of vs volume in period x+1. Time is the fourth dimension. It is not a random concept.

 

Your body knows when to sleep and when to be hungry. Your body knows when to age and when to die. Time is elemental.

 

If you are looking at volume candles and you say the chart is speeding up, are you measuring distance X time ? So time plays a role in the perception of the chart being created. But with no way to make relative comparisons. Plus, the close of a period (1 min , 2 hour, or day) is the last agreed upon price for that TIME. Note a certain volume number. That is, the emini closes at 4:15 regardless of contracts traded. And since this the last price that buyers and sellers come together, certainly it is of some import.

 

Pivot - I'll do my best to answer...

 

1) I've chatted with Mark and have visited his site many times. I've never purchased his manuals, so can't speak on that.

2) I've learned and studied 'traditional' candlestick trading, which does not do much with WRB's. So, can't say much on that either.

 

Re: chart speeding up, what I mean is (and I like to keep things simple) is that I know what a 'normal' morning 'should' look like in terms of how many candles printed. By knowing this, when I see many more OR less than normal, it grabs my attention. I am a VERY visual person, so the charts tell me everything I need to know.

 

Not sure if that answers your questions completely, but I am a pretty simple trader. My chart (which I posted on here) is volume based candles and 2 moving averages. That's it.

[brownsfan019 17]

Tingull started a new thread on volume based candles so any topic related to it should be posted there for now. Very interesting topic brownsfan... I am definitely going to look into this myself. Just wondering if TS has this feature? I am actually a little familiar with this as Ive seen charts with fat candles and narrow candles (high volume vs low volume) so I am assuming it is the same.

 

Soul - TS does have this feature, they call them Share Bars.

 

And as mentioned, I am NOT using equivolume candles. Those just look funny to me!

[MrPaul 10]

While I planned only to create a post when there was a valid Candle signal for the day I wanted to make this post about when not to trade. Even if there is a valid candlestick trigger, there are instances where it is better to stand aside. Or better yet maybe we should get down to defining what a valid Candle signal is?...

 

First Chart May 19th 2007 ER2 15min

 

As we can see in this chart Price gapped up and formed a doji 45 minutes into the trading day(red arrow) and was confirmed with a close below it shortly after(blue arrow). This is a classic textbook example of a signal to go short, we have a doji displaying indecision amongst us traders and the next bar displays outright bearish sentiment by closing below it, what a classic trade! Well, not quite...What a still chart cannot give you is the markets subtleties, those meta communications that are essential to understand if Candlestick analysis is to be applied correctly. If one was to witness the market live they could say that there was a lack of sustainable smooth volume flow.

 

This is important, Knowing your edge is only half the equation. The real mastery of an edge is knowing when Not to apply it. When looking at Candles from a supply/demand complex it is essential that there is sustaining volume flow. That is what carries momentum within the market so that you can exploit an edge.

 

Someone may point out the fact that there was a Gravestone Doji that formed later in the day(red arrow) and price did in fact verify that candle by closing below it(blue arrow) and even trading about a point lower before reversing! But that really doesn't mean much to me, volume had left the building(black arrows) and there was no momentum present...

Second chart May 19th 2007 ER2 30min

 

Here's another example on a higher time frame of a Candlestick trade signal gone bad. We have a nice friendly "hey how are ya, hows the wife n' kids?" pullback forming an indecisive Doji with a higher close on the next candle .Boy those 15min charts sure are deceiving, but not the ole 30min thats where the big guns hang out and a valid candle signal to go long there is the ticket even if there is low volume, look it's a pullback too, what a classic!...Not Quite.

 

I Hope this helps out!

 

I have included a rare picture of one of the disgruntled low volume Candles from today, obviously you don't want to be taking signals from these guys...

[brownsfan019 17]

If one was to witness the market live they could say that there was a lack of sustainable smooth volume flow.

 

When looking at Candles from a supply/demand complex it is essential that there is sustaining volume flow. That is what carries momentum within the market so that you can exploit an edge.

 

MrPaul - I'm curious to what "sustainable smooth volume flow" is...

[MrPaul 10]

MrPaul - I'm curious to what "sustainable smooth volume flow" is...

 

Just Institutional contribution throughout the session. For instance today's session volume was 180,400ish on the day. I documented in my notes that @ 9:25am CST we only had a volume level of 39.854, on a day where there is a flow of Institutional Volume that is price move sustaining we would see 2 to 3 times that (on the ER2). Today we basically were playing a game of ping pong, the volume wasn't smooth it was often jerky and intermittent leading to unsustainable price moves.

 

Perhaps I should have just said Institutional volume flow, but I read the term "sustainable volume flow" somewhere and it kinda stuck in my head