[s&r levels] Leading/lagging Pairs or Illusion

[ARTjoMS 10]

Hello,

 

here I am going to look on possible technical (support and resistance type only) reasons that could have helped to have anticipated recent eur/usd retrace right where it was (I am talking about the retrace that started on 17.09)

 

Market had rallied sharply and came into price zone where it had stayed for 15 weeks (end of January - end of April), however none of those obvious horizontal resistance levels were reached and price decided to retrace right away. So.. how one could anticipate retrace right there before it started!?

 

So I want to examine reliability (or possible illusion) of 3 reasons that I found. (I went through other charts as well, but I might have missed something too).

 

Retrace from upper channel. Channel lines gets built on recent market bottom, support in late 2010 and resistance on 2012.02.26 (can probably count 2010.10.31 as well). Weekly chart.

 

USDINX - support level. Ok, I like to think this works like following not leading chart, but... price reached significant 5 months old support level.... and bounced off.

 

 

AUDUSD - resistance................. Price moved into 5 week old resistance level and penetrated it for healthy 10 pips to bounce back.

 

I am not sure for what kind of input I am looking for, but if you feel like you can add some value then go, please, ahead.

 

Good luck. :missy:

[Obsidian 10]

you may not find logical/mathematical answers to the things happening...but in eur/usd case maybe it was 38.2 fibo level..now you can blame fibonacci