Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

lastninja2

Spanish Downgrade - Risk On or Risk Off?

Recommended Posts

Welcome some thoughts on this:

 

The market spotlight is pretty firmly focused on Spain right now, and the rising prospect of an official bailout request - thus paving the way for ECB bond buying intervention. That in itself, I can say with confidence, would be a "Risk On" move, and I'd be happy to buy up EUR.

 

But in the meantime, what if a major rating agency i.e. Moody's downgrades Spain?

 

On the surface that would be bad news for Spain and a "Risk Off" development. But surely such a downgrade would make a Spanish bailout request all but inevitable - therefore paradoxically the downgrade is "Risk On".

 

I'm fascinated to see how the markets respond to a downgrade - but I'm not sure whether I want to be long or short EUR....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6E sold off after S&P did their 2 notch downgrade of Spain after US cash close... damn shame I was not at my trading platform, I probably had turned off around 9:30pm, but who knew right?

 

But 6E has now rallied powerfully, recouping the losses and plenty more besides.

 

My take is this:

 

Big players are buying 6E whenever it dips, in anticipation that Spain will eventually concede they need a bailout. I recently drew comparison between the Spanish bailout officials and Baghdad Bob - do you remember him? Spain insist that they don't need a bailout and that the downgrade is not justified... peh... we'll see.

 

All that said, if Moody's downgrade Spain, and I am at my desk, I will be spamming sell 6E as fast as possible. The sell-off won't carry on forever... because the big guys will step in to buy it, confident in the knowledge that a bailout is due. But the knee jerk reaction will definitely be a sell. Just my view.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6E sold off after S&P did their 2 notch downgrade of Spain after US cash close... damn shame I was not at my trading platform, I probably had turned off around 9:30pm, but who knew right?

 

But 6E has now rallied powerfully, recouping the losses and plenty more besides.

 

My take is this:

 

Big players are buying 6E whenever it dips, in anticipation that Spain will eventually concede they need a bailout. I recently drew comparison between the Spanish bailout officials and Baghdad Bob - do you remember him? Spain insist that they don't need a bailout and that the downgrade is not justified... peh... we'll see.

 

All that said, if Moody's downgrade Spain, and I am at my desk, I will be spamming sell 6E as fast as possible. The sell-off won't carry on forever... because the big guys will step in to buy it, confident in the knowledge that a bailout is due. But the knee jerk reaction will definitely be a sell. Just my view.

 

Someone probably knew or more likely anticipated it. Look at the markets over the last few days. Fed and ECB are totally committed to destroying the value and confidence of currency (amongst others) so my view is that any selloff will be bought back and move us higher ultimately. Still I could be wrong. But you don't need to be 'right' to make money ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Here’s something few are talking about: The Chinese are printing money like it's going out of style. Not that you'd hear about it in the mainstream news. But Bitcoin knows.   Bitcoin always knows.   Here’s the thing…   When the Chinese government prints money to paper over the cracks, their smart money doesn't sit around waiting to get devalued.   It usually flows into three things: Bitcoin, gold, and dollars.   After years of being beaten down, gold's having one of its best years in decades. But here's the secret -- whatever gold does, Bitcoin's going to do it bigger.   Much bigger.   Since last November, when China started their printing spree, Bitcoin's been moving in near-perfect correlation with the People's Bank of China's balance sheet. Over 80% correlation, maybe even 90%.   Again, few are talking about it.   But here's why this matters right now: This could be the beginning of a huge breakout in the crypto markets.   Bitcoin broke above its July high, and historically, that's led to new all-time highs over 90% of the time. The only times it failed? COVID and the 2022 bear market.   That's it.” – Chris Campbell   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/     
    • Originally Answered: How can I compete with people who are better than me in every way?   So you want to outcompete people who are smarter, better looking and more experienced than you?   No problem!   All you have to do is outwork them.   Will Smith said, "if we both get on a treadmill either you're going to get off first or I'm going to die trying."     Most people just aren't willing to work that hard. Sure, they'll show up for the job interview and maybe practice in front of the mirror for a few minutes, but they won't do hours and hours of research and prepare for weeks. They won't wake up early and stay up late working on their dreams.   So while all those smart, good-looking, experienced people are waiting around for the next opportunity to come their way, you can outwork them and create your own opportunities.   In a few years, you'll be that "smart" person everyone looks up to. But you'll be different. You'll know it was your hard work, your inner strength and your commitment to living a great life that made you successful and brilliant - not luck or good genes.” – Tom Corson-Knowles, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • @sxiqxx, Well done on making your first post a promising strategy. @everyone, post up if you want this coded into an EA. Although I switched to TradeStation, I still have an active MT5 demo with MetaEditor. I can code it without referencing object oriented programming which should be retroactively compatible with MT4. Let me know...
    • Please allow me to retort (in jest): RESPONSE 1 : Get a job supervising others where you're in control of performance reports and ride those others 100%. This makes your performance 100% with little to no effort.   RESPONSE 2: Feel free to piss off your boss but stay nonviolent. When the side effects of his viagra and testosterone boosters cause him to physically assault you, you have the legal upper hand. This can result in a boatload of trading capital.   RESPONSE 3: Feel free to have intimate relations with your boss if she finds you attractive. Rest assured that mum's the word because once again, you have the legal upper hand. This can also result in a boatload of trading capital.   RESPONSE 4: Don't be fake friends with any enemies... unless you need information from them. Being fake friends with everyone will cause you to become an empty shell of a person with no direction in life.   REPONSE 5: Get your boss to become reliant on your performance (really, just the performance of your subordinates), and then plan an "overheard" conversation wherein you fake an interview with another potential employer. You'll probably get a pay increase or a promotion.   RESPONSE 6: If you can give your 75% percent to a project, give 50% and rely on your legal upper hand(s). Learn to write trading algo's during your other 50%.   RESPONSE 7: Take all of the office boys out to nightclub where you merely sip soft drinks on a weeknight. Upon your return to the office in the morning, inform the security guards that all of the office boys are intoxicated. Your boss will love you for it.   RESPONSE 8: Never try to prove your client wrong or find faults in their processes, but do secretly collect their information in case you jump ship or "someone you know" decides to start his own company.   RESPONSE 9: Never stay in a firm for too long. Instead, use your ill-gotten capital to exit the rat-race and start trading.   RESPONSE 10: Trading pays more than your career. Interpersonal skills are now irrelevant. Use your technical skills for trading. Never stop learning and keep updating your technical skills.😁
    • There are a lot of trading strategies like elliot waves, wyckoff etc so we need to apply those who best suited to our need and are understandable too.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.