Complicated Simplicity

[TheNegotiator 13]

You know, I hear lots of people saying stuff these days (and probably it’s always been the same really) about how it’s important to “simplify your trading” and I agree whole-heartedly. However, I think it’s also important to clear some points up first. In the same way that pointing out that you need to find a strategy that fits your personality (which also is kind of silly imo) is about as useful as a chocolate teapot, to tell someone to simplify their trading is also not especially useful. Perhaps it’s a little different for automated traders but given that a good proportion of the users here will be discretionary traders, it's important to expand upon.

 

There are two reasons I believe this to be true and first off is that trading and the markets are not simple. A thorough trading plan needs to account for so many different circumstances which many more experienced traders do almost automatically. With a plan and over time, you might be able to as well. What time of day are you trading, are there any big options expirations due, is the market trending or bracketing, what is the volume like, are there any central bank speeches, is there data due out, are you near to your daily stop limit (if you even have one), how much sleep did you get, are there any distractions at home, yada yada yada. Such things are indeed fairly simple however, their cumulative effect is to complicate trading.

 

Second off and perhaps most importantly is that a simple solution to any problem complex or otherwise (trading included) usually comes about by having a detailed and thorough understanding of the problem itself. What I’m suggesting is that to cut out all the crap from your trading and “simplify” it you must first understand what the “crap” is and off course what really matters. This takes time, effort, dedication and a little bit of common sense. It’s not easy and therefore most people are unable to do it.

 

So when someone says to you again “simplify your trading” realize that you must pick your plan apart and try to understand it better. Understand the market and its nuances as best you can. Study market data. Study your own trading data. Do all you can to understand yourself and your interaction with the market. Then simplify your trading.

[equtrader 10]

Good points. I think simplicity and complexity have many levels. What was simple for Einstein was very complex for other people. These are relative concepts. I think these concepts are more qualitative than quantitative and of course relative to circumstances.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Good points. I think simplicity and complexity have many levels. What was simple for Einstein was very complex for other people. These are relative concepts. I think these concepts are more qualitative than quantitative and of course relative to circumstances.

 

Absolutely. The idea of making things simple is to be able to work with your strategy in real time. If you're some really smart, super-focused trader, your workable capacity may be much higher than someone else.

[ForexTraderX 10]

You know, I hear lots of people saying stuff these days (and probably it’s always been the same really) about how it’s important to “simplify your trading” and I agree whole-heartedly. However, I think it’s also important to clear some points up first. In the same way that pointing out that you need to find a strategy that fits your personality (which also is kind of silly imo) is about as useful as a chocolate teapot, to tell someone to simplify their trading is also not especially useful. Perhaps it’s a little different for automated traders but given that a good proportion of the users here will be discretionary traders, it's important to expand upon.

 

There are two reasons I believe this to be true and first off is that trading and the markets are not simple. A thorough trading plan needs to account for so many different circumstances which many more experienced traders do almost automatically. With a plan and over time, you might be able to as well. What time of day are you trading, are there any big options expirations due, is the market trending or bracketing, what is the volume like, are there any central bank speeches, is there data due out, are you near to your daily stop limit (if you even have one), how much sleep did you get, are there any distractions at home, yada yada yada. Such things are indeed fairly simple however, their cumulative effect is to complicate trading.

 

Second off and perhaps most importantly is that a simple solution to any problem complex or otherwise (trading included) usually comes about by having a detailed and thorough understanding of the problem itself. What I’m suggesting is that to cut out all the crap from your trading and “simplify” it you must first understand what the “crap” is and off course what really matters. This takes time, effort, dedication and a little bit of common sense. It’s not easy and therefore most people are unable to do it.

 

So when someone says to you again “simplify your trading” realize that you must pick your plan apart and try to understand it better. Understand the market and its nuances as best you can. Study market data. Study your own trading data. Do all you can to understand yourself and your interaction with the market. Then simplify your trading.

 

Nails man. F'ing Nails. That's EXACTLY the problem with the whole "KISS" approach to trading.

 

Look. Seriously. Anyone who wants to trade is competing in an industry that literally has more money in it than any other industry in the world (maybe more than EVERY OTHER INDUSTRY COMBINED)... That type of money buys a lot. It hires the best, and the brightest, some of who create self dividing and self managing algo's referred to as "genetic" algos. We're talking about the guys who literally write the books that your graduate level professors teach from. They also can afford better speed and data mining operations, develop and test more ideas, more strategies, with more thorough testing that most of us will ever be able to imagine.

 

On the other hand, you have the independent retail trader. The successful one. Who is successful because they have the ability to look at an infinate number of variables, and somehow identify which 3 or 4 of those variables are relevent right now, and what would or could alter that, and to what degree. They have memorized every chart pattern, every candlestick arrangement, and every form of support and resistance that has been thought up. They are probably familiar with literally hundreds if not thousands of different indicators, and they usually have a good working knowledge of data and news releases, how they may affect any particular market, and how they plan to trade in each case.

 

 

Oh, I almost forgot. They have also been practicing this for years. literally. years. Just like a guy who can juggle 4 gas powered spinning chainsaws and make it look easy, the independent successful retail trader probably spent triple the amount of time learning to do what they do, just to get a 55%-60% edge in the markets, than the guy who can juggle 4 gas powered spinning chainsaws.

 

Oh, they also have a talent for it. A mind that is "built" to understand and make sense of the endless stream of input, quotes, correlated markets, trend, etc... most of which will hurt your trading, rather than help it.

 

The guys who really do this for a living are not usually the guys who have 2 moving averages, a daily and 1hr chart, and a bolllinger band... who wait for A and B and C and D to all show up, when X is also there.

 

They are usually the guys that know enough about the markets, that they could literally sit down and write out new formulas that would work...every day. They don't follow a recipe. They create new recipes every day from an near limitless selection of ingredients.

 

But, like some top chefs, because they just have the talent and experience and love for trading as chefs do food... they just know how food WORKS. they know what ingredients can be mixed with what other ingredients to achieve a taste like such and such.

 

A chef knows food. literally. He has such an understanding of food that he can pick and choose the right ingredients for any course (appetizers, desserts, entree's...etc...) and he can usually just look at how much goes in a pot to know if it's a cup of this, or if it's only 7/8 of a cup, and you need to put more of it in.

 

His measurements are in his head. His recipe is being created as he cooks. His ingredients may be differerent every day, and yet he can still make amazing food, every day, without ever having a "formula" or recipe to work off of.

 

Once you can trade like a top chef can create amazing culinary creations... then... then you can "simplify" your trading.

 

Because only then will you be good enough at trading, to know what "ingredients" you need to use to acheive the best outcome for the opportunities being presented.

 

Until you can trade like a top gourmet chef can cook.... trying to "simplify" is basically the equivilent of trying to teach yourself to be a top chef, but then deciding your going to :"simplify" your cooking and just never cook dessert or meats. Because you don't know how. and besides, you always mess those things up.

 

In such a case, simplification is really just a code word for " I really have no clue about what i'm doing, why i'm doing it, or how markets work at all."

 

K.I.S.S. - This asinine acronym only works when you are overcomplicating something simple. It has no place in a world where you need to learn a completely new set of vocabulary words, just to be able to understand the most basic questions people post up in the "beginners" section of this website.

 

K.I.S.S... hmpf. My ass.

 

FTX

[ForexTraderX 10]

As a follow up post... I was thinking more and more about how rediculous the whole "KISS" concept is when applied to trading. I started considering more careers where "KISS" is really just "S.T.U.P.ID."

 

Imagine the following:

 

Callling up Obama or Romney political strategiests, and telling them "you guys really don't know what your talking about. your trying to do too much, and understand too much data. just use the KISS approach, and your candidate will win for sure!!!!" :doh:

 

Or how about "Look General Martin Dempsy. Just because your job says your the head of the U.S. military joint chiefs of staff doesn't mean you need to overthink this whole war on terrorisim/ 9-11 / afghanistan / bin laden thing. Just, you know... K.I.S.S.! and you will win the war and bring peace and security to all those you are sworn to protect!!!

 

Of course, the K.I.S.S. approach works outside of giving government employees advice. You can take it to the private sector as well:

 

"Well, Mark Zuckerberg, I know your stock is crashing into the shitter these days... and I think I know your problem. You don't "K.I.S.S." enough. your like, trying to do to much with your website, and your employees are probably confused, and you probably are too. Well, just use KISS, and your stock price will come back in NO time!"

 

Or Even...

 

"What? what do you mean to become a brain surgeon you need to get a college degree, and then go to medical school, and then spend a year or two at least working as an apprentice for a doctor at a hospital?? Look buddy, your overcomplicating it. Just go grab yourself a cadaver... craigslist might have one... and then go sharpen your best knife from your kitchen. Read this book here on the human brain, give it a try, and you'll be good to go in no time! Somebody obviously didn't tell you the secret to becoming a successful neurosurgeon is you just need to K.I.S.S.!!"

 

Or Maybe...

 

"Well Ms. JK Rowling... I know you want to write some really good books about some kids who have magic and go to boarding school and fight evil... but, seriously, that's just where you are going to fail. Epic Fail. Because everyone knows the secret to truly innovative and compelling literary mastery and sucess is really just about K.I.S.S. If you just stick to the basics in your story, you'll do a lot better than if you try to write some big old long novel or something. Just KISS, and you'll fulfill your dream and alter the literary world... because, well, you just KISS'ed!!!" :crap:

 

 

I could probably go on and on.

 

K.I.S.S. ... I think acronym was invented by a person looking for an excuse to justify their stupidity to the rest of the world.

 

FTX

[TheNegotiator 13]

The problem is like with everything, people don't elaborate enough on the point. KISS for example is appropriate if used in the context of keeping your actions streamlined enough to remain efficient in your current activity having prepared thoroughly beforehand. Not doing so will mean "Keep It Simple Stupid" becomes "You Are F*ing Stupid" (YAFS for short )

[TheNegotiator 13]

Another thing is when people talk about sport. I like football (or soccer if you're american (or welsh)) so I'll use that as an example - but it's definitely appropriate to other sports. In football, there's always talk of how "keeping things simple" is really great and how "doing the basics well" can win you games. I absolutely agree with that. But most of the YAFS who bang on about it fail to recognise the years of work put in by the players and coaches to know what they should be doing. Which simple pass is the right pass? When do I shoot? When is it right to play it down the wing? Blah blah blah. What about all the technical work which goes on in preparation for the game? The amazing sports science like diet or movement analysis to help make players fitter stronger and less injury-prone? Is that simple? REALLY????

[ForexTraderX 10]

The problem is like with everything, people don't elaborate enough on the point. KISS for example is appropriate if used in the context of keeping your actions streamlined enough to remain efficient in your current activity having prepared thoroughly beforehand. Not doing so will mean "Keep It Simple Stupid" becomes "You Are F*ing Stupid" (YAFS for short )

 

"used in the context of"...and "having prepared thoroughly beforehand" taht's the crux of your statement... but I'm betting most will miss that point. And of course they will. Many will assume "prepared enough beforehand" will consist of having read a book about trading, a book about economics, and they know what a moving average cross over is.

 

The day a person can pick the high or low of a market on a daily chart, within a few ticks or pips or whatever... and get it right over 50% of the time... THAT person PROBABLY has prepared enough beforehand. At least they display some evidence that leads me to conclude they are probably successful, if they have their head right, and have the rest of the knowledge and experience to put that skill of picking highs/lows to work for them.

 

I'm sure there is another yardstick that someone could apply other than picking tops and bottoms... but just as I type this.... most people who read this will simply say "but that's impossible. i know it is, because someoen told me once you can't pick tops and bottoms. So, it's impossible as they say" If this is even remotely close to a persons thinking.. then they are so far from being able to make a full time career as a retail trader that it isn't funny. I suppose it's profitable (for me, and others like me)... but it's a reality that this actually isn't an impossible task. It's very realistic to pick say, a 20 pip "zone" and say, "this will be the high of the EUR/USD today"...and be correct 50%+ of the time.

 

But that's just one part of it. Then, a person needs risk management skills, trade management skills, and immense amount of time reading price action (to know when to get out, add more, reduce, etc) they would be best if they also had a clear view of sentiment, market intentions, and longer term charts, so they can know whether this really could be the low for the next 300+ pips, or if it's just too hard to tell, and 50 pips is about all they can count on. And by the way, if you can say with a degree of accuracy that your 70% likely to get 50 pips, but only 35% likely to get 300.... you SHOULD hold on to at least some of the trade for the 300, even if you think that you will NOT get that over 50% of the time.

 

And of course, you better have your estimates pretty good. Can't imagine yourself successfully doing these things that I talk about here? Then I can't imagine you know enough to be able to trade for a living.

 

And on... and on... There is just so much to know. And then so much to prioritize. And then so much to test. and THEN FINALLY, so much to eliminate. And it's never really done. Your always learning more, prioritizing more, testing, testing, fixing your own flaws, then eliminating.

 

Ya know Neg... on 2nd thought. I think i'm gonna stop posting in my thread, and instead, i'm just going to tell everyone "hey folks, it's really about keeping it simple. Just K.I.S.S. and you'll be fine!"

 

I mean, after all... I shouldn't work so hard to reduce my own personal paycheck.

 

FTX

 

PS. - YAFS. LOL. I'm gonna start using that.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Aren't you two carrying things a bit far? You're exhibiting the same hindsight bias that the emotion people do, that however you did/do it is the best/only way to do it, and anyone who doesn't see it that way is "fucking stupid".

 

I'm not impressed by arguments that complicated analyses are necessary when the analyses are so often wrong. And while I'm not trying to pick a fight, I do want to point out to beginners who might read this stuff that none of it is necessarily true. If one has been persuaded that trading absolutely must be complicated, talk to thalestrader's daughter.

 

Fucking Stupid

[TheNegotiator 13]

Aren't you two carrying things a bit far? You're exhibiting the same hindsight bias that the emotion people do, that however you did/do it is the best/only way to do it, and anyone who doesn't see it that way is "fucking stupid".

 

I'm not impressed by arguments that complicated analyses are necessary when the analyses are so often wrong. And while I'm not trying to pick a fight, I do want to point out to beginners who might read this stuff that none of it is necessarily true. If one has been persuaded that trading absolutely must be complicated, talk to thalestrader's daughter.

 

Fucking Stupid

 

I think you've entirely missed my point Db. I absolutely think that keeping things simple is entirely necessary but coming to the correct conclusion about what should be done isn't necessarily a simple process. Your example of thalestrader's daughter I can only assume was made because she is either learning to trade simply and possibly effectively which is great. But I'd counter that with two points. One is that she has someone to learn from who has probably gone through a hell of a lot in order to simplify his own trading. Speculation? Perhaps. Second is that if she is young and this is more speculation (but if you will use examples without clarifying the situation then all anyone can do is speculate), but if she is then you will appreciate that the levels of psychological baggage from years of everyday adult life will weigh much less on her. Perhaps the YAFS comment was rather excessive, although I'd like to point out that it was said with more than a hint of tongue in cheek. However, my point still stands imho that coming to a simple and effective process for trading, for whatever reason is rarely simple in itself.

 

read line 1 of op:

 

You know, I hear lots of people saying stuff these days (and probably it’s always been the same really) about how it’s important to “simplify your trading” and I agree whole-heartedly.

[DbPhoenix 42]

No, I did not miss your point. I understood your point. I disagree with your point. But that does not make me or anyone who agrees with me stupid. Your "you are fucking stupid" remark was indeed excessive. Whether or not it was said with tongue in cheek is irrelevant.

 

As for thales' daughter, since your emini thread referenced his in the first post, I had assumed you had read it. If you haven't, I suggest you do so and learn something about what can be accomplished via simplicity.

 

And please note once and for all that "simple" and "easy" are not the same thing.

 

Db

[TheNegotiator 13]

No, I did not miss your point. I understood your point. I disagree with your point. But that does not make me or anyone who agrees with me stupid. Your "you are fucking stupid" remark was indeed excessive. Whether or not it was said with tongue in cheek is irrelevant.

 

As for thales' daughter, since your emini thread referenced his in the first post, I had assumed you had read it. If you haven't, I suggest you do so and learn something about what can be accomplished via simplicity.

 

And please note once and for all that "simple" and "easy" are not the same thing.

 

Db

 

No, I don't think you do understand what I'm saying at all. I am advocating for simplicity, but also suggesting that coming to such simplicity is rarely a simple (or easy) process. Nevertheless, it's important that views are clear so people are not misled as you so rightly pointed out.

 

For the record, the YAFS comment:-

 

The problem is like with everything, people don't elaborate enough on the point. KISS for example is appropriate if used in the context of keeping your actions streamlined enough to remain efficient in your current activity having prepared thoroughly beforehand. Not doing so will mean "Keep It Simple Stupid" becomes "You Are F*ing Stupid" (YAFS for short )

 

was really just and attempt to point out that following anything (KISS or otherwise) without thinking things through thoroughly is not a good idea. It categorically was not in any way whatsoever suggesting that anything less than complicated trading ideas makes anyone stupid. Again the point was made tongue in cheek. Either way, thanks for your comments.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Aren't you two carrying things a bit far? You're exhibiting the same hindsight bias that the emotion people do, that however you did/do it is the best/only way to do it, and anyone who doesn't see it that way is "fucking stupid".

 

I'm not impressed by arguments that complicated analyses are necessary when the analyses are so often wrong. And while I'm not trying to pick a fight, I do want to point out to beginners who might read this stuff that none of it is necessarily true. If one has been persuaded that trading absolutely must be complicated, talk to thalestrader's daughter.

 

Fucking Stupid

 

Hmm.... I didn't say it HAS to be complicated... but I did say it is much more complicated than the vast majority of people make it out to be.

 

none of it is hard per se.... but complicated, yes I think so. Remember, it does literally require you to add dozens (if not 100+) new words with new definitions to your vocabulary just to be able to understand many newbie questions. That's not to know answer, but just to literally understand the question.

 

Of course, one can trade in a fairly simplfied manner. Take you for instance DB.... if i'm not mistaken, your a big VSA and market profile guy.

 

I'm not sure if you do anything else for analysis, but lets say for a moment that you don't.

 

It takes probably a few hundered hours at least watching price and volume at a S/R level just to start to recognize when a volume climax is occuring, and what a reversal candle looks like. Just because I can draw a perfect bearish engulfing candle, doesn't mean that there aren't many similar looking candles or "candle groups" that take a long bit of chart watching to start to be able to really understand the many patterns that can occur that essentially all mean the same thing, some will look very much like the perfect bearish engulfing, and others... well, it really takes time to add it all up (reversal)

 

Then, if said bearish engulfing candle occurs after price has moved up 4 days in a row, after it's been trending up for the last 3 months...but the last month was choppier, with greater volatility... then it's a pretty good bet that this will go your way.

 

But, if your trying to short that bearish engulfing candle as price moves up to resistnce... but after it has been selling off for 4 straight days, and is in a longer term down trend... then... well, that's NOT so good.

 

Of course, that is different if we are vastly oversold, and bad news is everywhere, and the market is now ignoring bad news altogether...then you may get some short movement...but the odds are becoming low that it'll go "far" (if your target is "far away..." you could be in trouble)

 

And so on, and so forth. First of all, it's important to realize that if a layman read what I just described, they would literally have no clue as to what I was saying? "oversold" "ignoring bad news" "short movement" "bearish engulfing" "candle" etc... a person needs to learn what this is just to be able to speak or think about trading.

 

Mind you, all of this is description above is qualitative...so there is a necessary element of judgement for each one.

 

And that's just to apply VSA well and get good results. Can this be effective with less complication and consideration? Sure. I think it probably can.

 

But I think ones success rate will decrease as well. And then with a lower success rate, requires more interpersonal development on the cliche issues of patience, and discipline...etc.. because a lower win rate generally will mean longer losing streaks, and shorter winning streaks. And both of these combine to add stress to a person when they are trading their life savings, or retirement, or even their "chump change"...because we are still talking hundreds of dollars per trade in most cases... just to be able to make enough to live of off. And streaks of losing hunderds of dollars at a time is stressful...which causes people to make worse decisions because it negatively affects their judgement.

 

And since nearly all of what discretionary traders measure is a judgement call... well, most are never prepared for this additional dimension of complication. Particularly when dealing with the stress of a losing streak.

 

So either way you look at it, every aspect of trading for most retail traders is NOT a "no brainer"

 

OF course, if you trade an automated system, it literally is that cut and dry. But, I know how to trade myself, and I still am yet to come up with an automated system that produces satisfactory results.

 

Of course, for a new trader to want to do that...well, again, a lot to learn.

 

As for thalestraders daughter... Assuming thalestrader is a very successful retail trader... and his daughter is pretty young (or pretty inexperienced, whatever) his daughter has an enormous advantage that I don't think your considering.

 

First of all, her father has reached the point where he actually CAN "simplify" and use a K.I.S.S. approach! He has attained a breadth and depth of market knowledge that gives him the ability to distill the best or most relevent aspects of his method and approach, and can spoon feed that to his daughter. When she makes a mistake, he can immediately correct her, which will re-enforce the "proper" way not just to do things, but to THINK about things in the markets.

 

Also, there are millions of questions that she will never even ask, because she already has something working for her.

 

Also, not sure how long thalestrader has been trading, but if I assume it has been for a good portion of his daughters life, growing up around a trader as a father, you can't help but experience the world in part as he sees it. Comments he may make, ways he deals with problems or complications in life in general. Lessons he specifically would tell his daughter that have importance not just in the original lesson, but in trading as well.

 

So by the time she looks at a chart, she has had literally years of observation and experience of "what a real trader should act like/look like/think like, etc" in the attitude, emotional control, the way he went about his work day, and even casual conversations he may have with his wife or older kids about his job, and what its all about.

 

She also has intimate and overt contact with the fruits of the job, so to speak. Maybe daddy was at every dance recital she ever did in part because of his great flexible job as a trader. Maybe daddy also has a ferrari, or at least a nice car. Maybe she doesn't want for much, or lives a very comfortable life.

 

If any or all of these things are true, she literally has a massive advantage because she not only has the perfect person to model in behavior, as well as in his specific instruction, but she doesn't have to "have faith" that the rewards are there. She has lived with those rewards. Don't underestimate the power of not needing faith. She has so many millions of reasons to like and trust that what daddy does is correct, most of which are subconcious thoughts.

 

She never has to KISS, because her dad has not only learned enough and filtered enough of the nonsense out to give her a very potent formula that he is also second to none at instructing on how to interpret and use it (it is his formula, after all...who better to teach it than it's "inventor). And, she does LIVE with or has constant access to said teacher, so she can ask any endless number of questions and not just receive answers, but anwers that she knows is true, because hey, after all, dad has a ferrari and sent her to college without a loan or a grant, so yea, i don't need to wonder if he knows what he is talking about. he does. I trust it...etc...

 

So this excludes the need for her to even consider looking further or deeper or learning more.

 

For many aspiring traders without such a role model, even once the "answer" (whatever that is) is presented to them. and even after they learn it, AND use it... they need to have enough talent, or skill, or experience, or inner personal development, or all of the above, to know to stick with it when times are hard, and also to recognize if something is really wrong and to stop using it all together.

 

Even the possibility of this happening can be enough for a trader to doubt what they do, and that alone can kick off a losing streak... and if it doesn't, then this person tends to look elsewhere if they start to experience a losing streak.

 

Bottom line, I don't agree at all with you that it isn't complicated. Maybe not terribly difficult or enormously challenging, ok, fine. But complicated? Absolutely.

 

I learned how to read and write and speak another language when I was just a child. But does that mean learning a language is uncomplicated because every 6 year old can do it? Absolutly not. If so, everyone could pick up an instructional language book, read it, and know the language. But some people spend a year or two to learn a new language..dpendikng on them, the language, their comittment, their age and place in life when trying to learn...etc.

 

With only 1 type of exception, I've never met a single person who was ever able to make money as a day trader in less than 1 year. Incredibly smart people too...doctors, lawyers, engineers...etc. Not a one of them ever made money as a trader in under 1 year... UNLESS they had regular or constant access to someone who already is a very successful full time trader. Like thalestraders daughter. Or paul tudor jones's uncle. Or even an aquaintance of mine who had a lot of money (made over $200K a year at their regular job), and hired a full time trader "on retainer" to teach them how to trade. And it took them about a year to get it down.

 

If it were NOT complicated, it would not take the best and the brightest a minimum of 1 year to achieve success, under optimal conditions.

 

Without direct and uninhibited access to such a professional trader, I've never heard of anyone doing it in less than 2. It seems the average is about 5 years.

 

I don't want to use too big of a logical fallicy here... but, if it was really not complicated, then it wouldn't take PHD's and intellectual property attornys 2-5 years to learn how to do it profitably.

 

It IS complicated DB. If you have the luxuery of having a connection to a person who has been able to distill down the finer points of trading, so you never have to waste time or learn misinformation... then good, your lucky, and you can get it down in probably a year or so...

 

but that doesn't mean it isn't complicated.

 

FTX

[johnw 10]

hi there,

 

Does anyone read Sun Tzu ...he is as relevant now as 2500 years ago, which I imagine means that whilst things change, People do not.

 

Sun Tzu says that it is good to confuse your enemy ... well just let us take a moment to look around at all the countless threads and posts here at TL ... all we see is confusion confusion confusion.

 

Complicity versus simplicity .... all I see is confusion.

 

We buy into a rising market ... we sell into a falling market ... that is all I know and it is all I need to know.... and that is not discipline, it is common-fucking-sense.

 

buen fin de semana

[ForexTraderX 10]

No, I don't think you do understand what I'm saying at all. I am advocating for simplicity, but also suggesting that coming to such simplicity is rarely a simple (or easy) process. Nevertheless, it's important that views are clear so people are not misled as you so rightly pointed out.

 

For the record, the YAFS comment:-

 

 

 

was really just and attempt to point out that following anything (KISS or otherwise) without thinking things through thoroughly is not a good idea. It categorically was not in any way whatsoever suggesting that anything less than complicated trading ideas makes anyone stupid. Again the point was made tongue in cheek. Either way, thanks for your comments.

 

I think Neg brings up good points here (obviously I think that, as my earlier posts demonstrate)... I'll add to that I've heard some good traders who are already successful and making money saying things like "I just KISS, it works."

 

but never once have I ever seen a trader who is not yet profitable, who says to themselves (or me)

 

"you know...I think i'm just going to start using KISS more... i'm just trying to do too much..."

 

and then by simplifying things, suddenly becomes successful and can now trade full time.

 

I've just never seen it. Seasoned traders who are already past the learning curve and are successful and have all (without exception, ever... ever) invested at least 12 months or more, who use a KISS approach can and often do have more success! But for the rest? It's a complete oversight that thinking simple will produce results. Knowledge and experience will produce results. Simple without knowledge and experience will produce failure, and, it is foolish (or stupid) to think otherwise.

 

In the spirit of disclosure, I actually KISS'ed in a major way this year. 10 years of trading, almost 4 years of full timje, and I threw away my entire trading plan, and now have a single page with only 3 rules on it:

 

1. Only trade what I want, when I want, how I want, for as long as I want...and never any more than I want to.

 

2. Don't blow a whole in my account.

 

3. Consider what I did wrong last week. Pick only 1 or 2 things. And just fix those things for this coming week.

 

That's it. That's my entire trading plan. ANd u know what? I AM trading a bit better, and my life is MUCH less stressful and I have more time to do other things than my trading prep.

 

But I had a much bigger plan for years. And I could get that only after I spent a few years learning just enough to know how to write my plan.

 

Again. KISS is cool to improve a system that is underperforming due to inefficient or distracting components. But there are lots of reasons systems (*trading or otherwise) don't work. And nearly all of them are NOT due to distraction or inefficiency. In these cases, you can KISS all you want, your just KISS'ing success goodbye.

 

FTX

[ForexTraderX 10]

hi there,

 

Does anyone read Sun Tzu ...he is as relevant now as 2500 years ago, which I imagine means that whilst things change, People do not.

 

Sun Tzu says that it is good to confuse your enemy ... well just let us take a moment to look around at all the countless threads and posts here at TL ... all we see is confusion confusion confusion.

 

Complicity versus simplicity .... all I see is confusion.

 

We buy into a rising market ... we sell into a falling market ... that is all I know and it is all I need to know.... and that is not discipline, it is common-fucking-sense.

 

buen fin de semana

 

Ya know john... I do both. and they both work for me. I think i sell into rising markets more than I buy into them... but that's just me. But forget me for a moment.... lets talk about you, since you brought it up.

 

Once upon a time when you first started trading. You sit down (or maybe you stood up...in a pit or on the floor...of course that environment is a huge leg up on the learning curve alone)... and you want to trade.

 

Now say I came to your house, knocked on the door, and said "Hey John. I know your trying to trade right now. Tell you want. It's really simple. Just buy into a rising market, and sell into a falling market"

 

And then I shut the door, and walked away.

 

Would this in any way ever help you to actually be able to make a full time income trading any market in the world (I mean any, as in ....would it even work in a single one?)

 

I mean. Would it? Really? Because I'll tell you. I did get that advice pretty early on. probably in the first few months of my attempting to trade.

 

And i'm actually a pretty smart guy. Definately have an IQ over 70.

 

And yet it never helped me make a dime. Sure... it helps now. I use that concept a lot. Every day in fact. But it took a few years before it ever helped me.

 

This is exactly my point, and I believe Neg's point. I fyou post that statement of buy rising and sell falling in any newbie thread... I can almost guarnatee that 100% of people from now until the end of time who read it will not be able to then trade successfully.

 

heh... I almost hope your saying this tounge in cheek, and i just missed the joke...because if not John, I think you proved my point, if not the point of this thread.

 

FTX

[DbPhoenix 42]

Hmm.... I didn't say it HAS to be complicated... but I did say it is much more complicated than the vast majority of people make it out to be.

 

That is your opinion. It is not demonstrable fact.

 

Of course, one can trade in a fairly simplfied manner. Take you for instance DB.... if i'm not mistaken, your a big VSA and market profile guy.

 

I am neither.

 

It takes probably a few hundered hours at least watching price and volume at a S/R level just to start to recognize when a volume climax is occuring...

 

This may be time-consuming, but it is not complicated. Nor is it particularly difficult

 

And so on, and so forth. First of all, it's important to realize that if a layman read what I just described, they would literally have no clue as to what I was saying? "oversold" "ignoring bad news" "short movement" "bearish engulfing" "candle" etc... a person needs to learn what this is just to be able to speak or think about trading.

 

A layman may have no clue as to what you were saying, but so what? None of this is necessary.

 

So either way you look at it, every aspect of trading for most retail traders is NOT a "no brainer"

 

Simple is not simple-minded.

 

Repeating something many times does not make it so. If you want to believe that trading is complicated because that has been your experience, great. But that does not make it true for everyone.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

heh... I almost hope your saying this tounge in cheek, and i just missed the joke...because if not John, I think you proved my point, if not the point of this thread.

 

Don't let it bother you, John.

 

Anybody else looking to be insulted?

 

Db

[ForexTraderX 10]

 

 

This may be time-consuming, but it is not complicated. Nor is it particularly difficult

 

nothing is ever difficult once a person knows how. Algebra is pretty darn easy for me these days. As is speaking the english language, as is investing in real estate, as is starting a business, as is rock climbing a grade of 5.10b

 

And that pretty much goes the same for complicated.

 

 

Maybe we should start with a definition of "difficult" and "complicated" Here is what popped up with a google search:

 

COMPLICATED:

 

1. Containing intricately combined or involved parts.

2. Not easy to understand or analyze.

 

with regard to trading, I think definition #1 may or may not apply. It would completely depend on someones trading style.

 

Definition 2 may or may not apply. I do think it is easy to understand, on a conceptual level. Actually quite easy. If this is what you are referring to, then I give you credit for your point, and concede this.... as far as the analysis and thought process behind it, it might be complicated, it might not.

 

So i'll grant you that the question of "complicated" is a matter of opinion and style with regard to trading. But, LEARNING to trade is complicated. Driving a car is not. Baking a cake is not. Although the learning may be sequential, and no single aspect of it may be challenging to understand or grasp, the "complication" is in learning what exactly to learn about, and what emphasis you should give each of the concepts that you've learned, and then applying them successful over a long duration of time with consistency... this is all complicated for most people. And unless you have professional instruction, this aspect IS complicated, at least it was for me. If not for you, kudos. But I think that you would be in a small minority.

 

But now onto difficult...

 

DIFFICULT:

1. not easy to do; requiring effort a difficult job

2. not easy to understand or solve; intricate a difficult problem

3. hard to deal with; troublesome a difficult child

4. not easily convinced, pleased, or satisfied

5. full of hardships or trials difficult times ahead

 

 

I think successful trading will fit definition 1. It does require effort, and by the attrition rate, it can be reasonably concluded that it is "not easy to do". Driving a car, on the other hand is something that I would NOT consider difficult, because the vast majority of people who attempt to do so are successful at it and are able to legally drive for many years of their lives.

 

It MAY or MAY NOT fit definition 2. However, I believe anyone that didn't have a specific methodolgy taught to them by a successful trader who is also a dedicated and proficient teacher would find LEARNING to trade was not easy to understand, and was intricate and a difficult problem. Now, once past the "learning phase" ok, successful trading can be simple, even easy. It may be much more complicated of course, but it can be easy. But learning to trade? I think that sans great mentorship, it fits the definition #2 of "difficult"

 

3. not relevent.

4. not relevent

 

5. It does NOT fit this defintion of difficult. Is this what you are defining as difficult?

If so, well, ok. But that's a pretty obscure one to go with, and even if so, it does not negate the points I bring up above.

 

Repeating something many times does not make it so. If you want to believe that trading is complicated because that has been your experience, great. But that does not make it true for everyone.

 

Db

 

I agree, repeating something does not make it so, but I think that a failure rate of over 90% for the retail day trading industry, and the fact that the vast majority of mutual fund managers underperform the broader index (after fees), and that even the average hedge fund manager does not improve upon this much if you look at risk adjusted gains...

 

I'm going to go ahead and say "yep. that task is probably a difficult thing for a human being to do. There must be something more complicated about it than the majority of those who try it understand."

 

Going back to my whole "chef" analogy....

 

Sure, the vast majority of dishes that a chef creates at a 5 star restaurant ARE simple, and require little if any practice to do, even for someone who has no culinary experience other than basic home cooking. But that doesn't mean cooking at a 5 star restaurant is easy or simple.

 

Look. I think I know where you are coming from with this "not complicated or difficult" bit. And I think I understand your point. And I even think I agree to a point. But just because it makes logical sense, and is actually even easy to apply, still does not make it easy.

 

The component parts of a whole do not always equal the whole. Even when they clearly seem like they should.

 

But I can't deny the relevance of the attrition rate, or the time it takes for a person to learn how to trade successfully once they decide to try it, or the amount of "KISS" systems and "KISS espousing" traders i've come across who are failure waiting to happen.

 

KISS works great for traders who have learned what it takes, how it works, and how to apply it.

 

and it's the KISS of death for those who apply it before they are thoroughly versed in the proper trading knowledge, and have had the appropriate amount of experience to apply that knowledge as it needs to be applied.

 

And the process of gaining experience and acquiring the proper knowledge I believe fits to a large degree the definition of "complicated", and it fits completely the most frequently applied definitions of "difficult"

 

 

If you doubt my points, just contact a few people you have connected with via your instructional posts on this site... contact any dozen of them... and see how many of them are trading successfully full time or are well on their way to getting there. I'm willing to bet that most people who read your work here will never be successful. If I'm correct, then either something is missing in the explaining, or the understanding.

 

And from what very very little i've seen, you seem to explain things pretty well in your posts...

 

FTX

[ForexTraderX 10]

Don't let it bother you, John.

 

Anybody else looking to be insulted?

 

Db

 

Huh... interesting. I thought more of your emotional fortitude than this. You were neither addressed directly, nor is Neg's or my points even relevant to you (I'm assuming you are a profitable full time trader). Furthermore, John as far as I could see thought our discussion was unnecessarily neuanced and possibly trite (i absoultely disagree with him, but that's another topic)... so I was going out of my way to illustrate back to him that he WAS indeed oversimplyfying things.

 

but you managed to somehow put yourself into what you assume johns place would be, and then took my offhanded and half joking jab quite personally. As if he had been wronged in the first place, and as if I meant it as an insult (I made that offhanded remark as a device to illustrate to John that the cliche he uses doesn't work well as he used it. NOT to diminish his character or trading ability).

 

Futhermore, you didn't make such a statement as john did, so you did not get such a response from me, or anyone else. How or why you related to it personally is beyond me.

 

I'm all for open ended discussion, debate, disagreement, even arguement over various trading viewpoints... but to take an abstract philisophical disagreement personally and then announce to the world "hey, i'm taking this discussion personally, because that guy over there said something i don't like"... well, I'm not sure what to say, other than obviously I noticed your offense, and I don't see how it is relevant to the point of this discussion... and furthermore I question whether you will take anything I wrote seriously since you draw emotional connections to yourself from things that are completely unrelated.

 

I hope we can get to the end of this and see all points of view before the walls that our egos build block that from happening.... I've taken everything you've said seriously, but not personally. I intend to continue this stance during this conversation.... Do you?

 

FTX

[DbPhoenix 42]

So i'll grant you that the question of "complicated" is a matter of opinion and style with regard to trading. But, LEARNING to trade is complicated.

 

Not necessarily, if one knows how to tell up from down.

 

...I can't deny the relevance of the attrition rate, or the time it takes for a person to learn how to trade successfully once they decide to try it, or the amount of "KISS" systems and "KISS espousing" traders i've come across who are failure waiting to happen.

 

None of which is particularly pertinent. The fact that many people cannot do something simple does not make it not simple unless one equates "simple" with "easy". And if someone spends 10 years trying before he is able to make a little money, perhaps the problem lies within the individual rather than "complexity" of the task.

 

If you doubt my points, just contact a few people you have connected with via your instructional posts on this site... contact any dozen of them... and see how many of them are trading successfully full time or are well on their way to getting there. I'm willing to bet that most people who read your work here will never be successful. If I'm correct, then either something is missing in the explaining, or the understanding.

 

They may or may not be successful, just as you may or may not be successful. But none of that has anything to do with whether or not trading, or "learning to trade", is simple.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

I'm all for open ended discussion, debate, disagreement, even arguement over various trading viewpoints... but to take an abstract philisophical disagreement personally and then announce to the world "hey, i'm taking this discussion personally, because that guy over there said something i don't like"... well, I'm not sure what to say, other than obviously I noticed your offense, and I don't see how it is relevant to the point of this discussion... and furthermore I question whether you will take anything I wrote seriously since you draw emotional connections to yourself from things that are completely unrelated.

 

I suggest that you and Neg review your comments regarding KISS and "YAFS" and how those relate to those, like me, who believe that trading is far simpler than the two of you insist that it is. If the prompt for my remarks remains a mystery to you, then that's that.

 

I hope we can get to the end of this

 

Unless you continue to pursue it, we are.

 

Db

[Gringo 10]

"Make things as simple as possible but no simpler" - Albert Einstein

 

It seems certain tasks can be categorized as being simpler than others. That being said simplicity in itself is a relative term and not an absolute.

 

Without simplicity there would be no love, and without love there would be no complication. Without complication there would be no simplicity.

 

Gringo

Edited October 20, 2012 by Gringo

[ForexTraderX 10]

I suggest that you and Neg review your comments regarding KISS and "YAFS" and how those relate to those, like me, who believe that trading is far simpler than the two of you insist that it is. If the prompt for my remarks remains a mystery to you, then that's that.

 

 

 

Unless you continue to pursue it, we are.

 

Db

 

No DB... It's plain we are done here. We disagree. Your offended... there is no mystery. Slight surprise yes, but that's all. We've both made our points, maybe we'll meet eye to eye on the next, maybe not. But yea...here? We're done.

 

Good trading to you

 

FTX

[Patuca 13]

shoot boys..flip a coin. heads go long. tails short..slap a stop loss in there and a profit target ...take a ride on the moto ...results will be there soon enough.