Tupapa's Log

[tupapa 10]

When prices reach your levels, do you look for actionable patterns (DB, DT, HL, LH, Hinges and SBs?

 

I have found that looking for these kind of patterns on the tick chart when price reaches S/R helps me avoid some of the chop.

 

I have not tested that extensively, but for example, when approaching R a DT followed by a break of DL increases the probability of success, besides, entering in the tick gives you razor thin stops. The problem I am dealing with now is how to get out of the tick and manage the trade following longer term waves.

 

Just my 2 cents.

 

Yes, that's exactly what I do, taking a reversal at resistance as an example;

 

01-Price approaches the level and it gets rejected, there is a downwave that is stronger than any previous downwave,

 

1- then this wave runs out of steam, and comes back for a test, this is when I look to place my entry. Price must retrace 2/3s of the downwave, and it must allow for a maximum 5 tick stop, according to my risk tolerance.

 

3- I pull the trigger once I see a an offer that holds the bid, for this I look at the ladder instead of the tick chart.

 

 

 

For the time being I only want to trade reversals at S/R or pullbacks once price breaks above support or below resistance. I am having less success trading the latter.

[tupapa 10]

Bund update, on the daily the weakness is still evident, after a strong rejection of the lower limit of the range on friday.

 

IF we break below 141.27 the next target to the downside is 140.20.

 

Tomorrow's plan is based on reversals and pullbacks, depending on where we open. If we break below 141.30, the next levels are:

 

141.02

140.92

140.64

1400.42

140.23

[Niko 10]

 

3- I pull the trigger once I see a an offer that holds the bid, for this I look at the ladder instead of the tick chart.

 

 

How do you see that?

[tupapa 10]

How do you see that?

 

Just Looking an the DOM, I will see a price that buyers bid, but the offer stays there, meaning there are still sellers that are willing to sell at this price, and they can't get their fills, so if my hypothesis is correct, and there is no buying pressure, sellers will have to offer their contracts at lower prices, initiating the reversal.

 

They will have to compete between each-other, for the remaining bids below the current price.

 

Ditto all of this for a reversal at support.

[tupapa 10]

The last few days have been hard and since its the last few days I feel like I've somehow lost the motivation. Once I get back on the live account I will be accountable for everything and I will need to exercise the discipline to follow the plan, with regards to trade management:

 

1- I'm not sure about when to move my stop to Breakeven, if ever.

2- I struggle with re-entries.

 

This is something I must work on, and the problem is I don't have a clearly defined set of rules, so I will study my old charts and try to find an acceptable method that I can use as a template.

[Niko 10]

I guess that at this stage if you don´t have a clear and specific set of rules, your mind is going to take over during RT and screw you up. We were talking about that with G at the chat, and how objective setups can help overcome this flaw in human hardware.:haha:

 

I am currently defining the odds for every setup I am going to trade, I started with hinges some weeks ago and got very interesting results.

 

What I am trying to get here is, what are the odds of a DT not to fail when I spot it in the 1 min, for example, if I get that 80% of DTs don't fail around R, then I will trade DTs in Real life, but if i get that 80% of DTs fail, then perhaps I will end up fading the DTs .

 

But first I have to do the back testing and calculate the odds.

 

My 2 cents.

[tupapa 10]

Yes Niko, it is true what you say about not having a clearly defined setup and the testing is invaluable, at the moment I am doing this on the way, because I don't have much time for testing, and I am trying to define this from day to day.

 

The entry is vital, but as I mentioned above, the management is key to the profitability of the entry. I will be very interesting in reading any progress you make with your testing and definition. As for me, I am observing as a I trade, and making notes and as I build something more concrete, I will post it here for whoever might be interested. Like yourself, I am using 15/30m/daily for S/R and 1m bar for entry, also trying to keep it simple, by focusing solely on the lenght, and duration of the buying and selling waves, like Db has taught us..

 

These are the levels for tomorrow, the plan for the time being is:

 

Short rejection of B

Buy rejection of A

 

If we open above B, Short rejection of C, buy rejection of B

 

If we Open Below A, Long rejection of D, short rejection of A.

 

I will upload this tomorrow around 7ish, to take into account any overnight action and the opening print.

[tupapa 10]

Yes, that's exactly what I do, taking a reversal at resistance as an example;

 

01-Price approaches the level and it gets rejected, there is a downwave that is stronger than any previous downwave,

 

1- then this wave runs out of steam, and comes back for a test, this is when I look to place my entry. Price must retrace 2/3s of the downwave, and it must allow for a maximum 5 tick stop, according to my risk tolerance.

 

3- I pull the trigger once I see a an offer that holds the bid, for this I look at the ladder instead of the tick chart.

 

 

For the time being I only want to trade reversals at S/R or pullbacks once price breaks above support or below resistance. I am having less success trading the latter.

 

 

Here is an example of this setup, it literally just took place:

 

 

Last night I posted my plan,l that showed how I wanted to go long on a rejection of 61, and this is what happened:

 

At 1 price reaches my level, the bids are holding but I don't want to enter just yet.

 

At 2 we get a rejection of this level, an up-wave that is stronger than any previous up-wave.

 

At 3 we get a test, that retraces more than 2/3s of the up-wave, and allows for a maximum 5 price stop, which is my risk tolerance.

 

So all my conditions are met, know I look at the ladder, and I could see how the sellers, couldn't make 62 bid, so instead of placing a bid at 62, and risking not getting filled, I go to market at 63.

 

Hope this illustrates the setup more clearly

[tupapa 10]

In the Morning price found S at A, then R at C and then we broke below and found some S at D, although the level didn't hold and turned to Resistance.

 

Then we found R at 54, which was a VPoc from yesterday and kept trending lower, until just now it reversed at 141.05.

 

For the afternoon, the Plan is:

 

Sell Rejection of 142.16. If we break above, buy a pullback, and look for shorts at 142.33 or 142.45.

 

Buy Bounce of 141.95. If we break below, sell a pullback and look for reversals at 141.84 and 141.78

[tupapa 10]

Tomorrow;s levels, will update in the morning

[Niko 10]

Hi,

 

I am testing this setup, have not finished yet but so far looks good, perhaps you could use it in the bund and tell me how it looks. The example is for a short, but it works in the same way on the long, just in the opposite direction.

 

[tomerok 10]

is it just me?, none of the images at this thread are visible

 

Tomer.

[tupapa 10]

You need to login every time u wana view an image, should probably contact an admin....

 

Niko, regardin ur entry, it seems you are entering the reversal when price breaks the lsl. Where do you place your stop??

 

The main problem I see with this.is you need a very wide stop. I would rather enter around the Lh, so I can have a stop above resistance, and I am increasing the profit potential.

 

 

I assume you are testing the setup only at S/R???

[tomerok 10]

I'm with tupapa, I enter right as lh is established, if i'm wrong and it's not a rev i'll know it straight away, with your entry technique Niko, you might find yourself at the end of the reversed move in no time.

 

Tomer

[tupapa 10]

Tomorrow's plan:

 

Initially I am looking for shorts at rejection of 67/76 and longs at rejection of 49/40

[Niko 10]

I'm with tupapa, I enter right as lh is established, if i'm wrong and it's not a rev i'll know it straight away, with your entry technique Niko, you might find yourself at the end of the reversed move in no time.

 

Tomer

 

Tom,

 

How do define the establishment of a LH? Ticks away from the LSH?

 

The way I see it, once the LH is set, it still has to break LSL in order to make a stronger downwave. That is why I wait for the BO, one could also short the BO, but I decided to start with the RET. I am highlighting the BOs in my analysis, but will first get stats on the Ret after the BO.

[Niko 10]

You need to login every time u wana view an image, should probably contact an admin....

 

Niko, regardin ur entry, it seems you are entering the reversal when price breaks the lsl. Where do you place your stop??

 

 

I am getting stats first, but I guess the stop would go in the top of the Ret (LSH).

 

 

The main problem I see with this.is you need a very wide stop. I would rather enter around the Lh, so I can have a stop above resistance, and I am increasing the profit potential.

 

 

Perhaps yes, I will post analysis results when done so you can see what I get.

 

I assume you are testing the setup only at S/R???

 

No, I am testing the setup everywhere I find it, after I finish I will add filters to define if the occurrence around a S/R area increases the odds.

[tomerok 10]

Tom,

 

How do define the establishment of a LH? Ticks away from the LSH?

 

The way I see it, once the LH is set, it still has to break LSL in order to make a stronger

downwave. That is why I wait for the BO, one could also short the BO, but I decided to

start with the RET. I am highlighting the BOs in my analysis, but will first get stats on the

Ret after the BO.

 

 

Since LH can only be determined at hindsight or at least after price has moved further

way from the LH point (for my taste...), i use in RT a shorter time frame to pinpoint the

entry point.

 

Take a look at the 360 chart, circled is the entry point, one can argue waves are not clear

enough and no clear LH is visible.

i use the 120tick for entry and if required even down to the 20tick.

 

regarding ticks from LSH, as a baseline for my entry definition i will not take entries that.

their LH reached back into the TL zone, for me this is a sign for indecision or at least that

buyers has not given up yet. the actual number of ticks is depended on the context(time

frame) and slope of trend reversed.

 

i can understand your logic for confirmation on the reversal, I did not mention i put a lot of

weight on the pullback that break the TL in terms of speed,length and determination visible,

 

 

Tomer

[tupapa 10]

This morning price found S at 50, as anticipated, then rallied up to 68 and found R, as also anticipated. Then there was temporary S at 40, and a rally that found R at 50, old S and now R.

 

From here we droped below 40, and found S at 23, where are currently ranging between 24 and 40.

 

So the plan, relying on S/R

 

Buy rejection of 24, if we break below:

Buy rejection of 18

Sell pullback to 23.

Buy rejection of 96.

Buy rejection of 84/78

 

 

 

Sell rejection of 40, if we break above:

Buy pullback to 40.

Sell rejection of 50/68/78/82

[tupapa 10]

Today I had total discipline following the plan, which lead to a very controlled day and the best entries I've ever made.

 

Unfortunately, my trade management was appalling, due to a fear of taking a loser, and fear of giving profits back. I tried using the LH system, where I wait for price to make a LH (when short) and not exit until it makes a HH, but this didn't yield profits today.

 

Instead, using a fixed target would've been more profitable.

 

The main reason why I believe I was profitable today was because I planed every trade in foresight, once I made the trade, I moved on and wrote a new plan, regardless of whether the trade was a winner or a loser. I also had the mental discipline to stay away from marginal trades that "Tempted me" throughout the day, and I was focused only on planed trades.

 

A good day, means nothing, I must keep developing the mental skills to execute my plan flawlessly, to stay away from marginal, impulsive, and illusive trades. Also I must develop a management style that I am comfortable with.

[Niko 10]

The entry I am working on:

 

[Niko 10]

Are you trading multiple contracts?

 

After I take profits in the first one, It takes the psychological pressure on the position, and I can manage the rest of the position stress free as it is in break even.

[tupapa 10]

Yes I am trading 2 lots, the problem with the bund is it doesn't trend like the NQ, which makes Lhs y Lls, the bund is choppier so I need a set of rules for management.

 

I might have to take 1 lot out at S/R and scale the second out by price action. I have also thought of trying to hold for at least 2 times my risk.

 

There is also the issue of when to move the stop to Breakeven, if ever, which I haven't established.

 

Tomorrow's leves, which I will update in the morning, market seems strong and buying 72s could be a decent trade, with a view of auctioning higher.

[tupapa 10]

Friday's and today's trading

[tupapa 10]

tomorrows levels update in nthe morning