Tupapa's Log

[tupapa 10]

yesterday and today I got absolutely raped and I believe it's because I haven't been paying enough attention to the bigger picture, I have been to focused on the 1m chart, which should only be used for entries.

 

So for tomorrow, I plan to only take trades at either of the following levels: Preferably a Reversal, although if price blasts through them, like it did today, I will take whatever retracement shows on the 1m chart.

[tupapa 10]

12/11

 

I am going back to planning my trades in foresight, I think I need this as a way to contrast my plan with my performance, and it is the only way to measure my trading objectively.

 

The Bund has been rising over the past few days, so we could have a correction (or not). So tomorrows plan is:

1- I will go short on a rejection of A, the target for this trade is B.

2- I will go long on a rejection of B-C or D, the target here becomes A.

3- If we break above A, I will buy a retracement, there is no resistance in the hrizon, so the first lot is exited at the break of the DL, the second lot is closed at the break of the LSL or LH, whatever comes first.

4- If we fall below D, I will short a retracement, the target of which becomes E.

5- If we fall below D, I will go long on a rejection of E, the target then becomes D

[tupapa 10]

Today was Veterans day and an extremely quiet day, I stuck to the plan for most but missed two good entries. I also tried to hold the trades but this was extremely challenging.

 

Not much has changed for tomorrow in terms of the plan.. I adjusted the range upper limit Resistance to 16, so this could provide S tomorrow, if we open above.

 

 

So I will look for longs at:

-Rejection of C, Mpoint or D

-on a test of B from above, not sure about this level, it was tested today and yesterday but I will have to see a very clear bounce to buy here.

-Break above A, I will buy a Ret

 

Shorts;

- Rejection of A

-Rejection of B

-Break below D, I will sell a ret

[tupapa 10]

Today started of really with a grat trade according to my plan and then it went down hill.. I missed the short at 47, not sure why I didnt take it, was to pleased with myself for the good long I think.

 

Once we broke S at 25, I wasnt patient enough to wait for a reversal at 03, and when I finally placed my bid I didnt get filled. This was followed by a series of mediocre trades, around my levels. I also struggle to concentrate after 12:00, I feel fully focused from 7 to 11 but after this I really struggle.. Maybe something to think about.

 

Tomorrow, my goal is to follow my plan, try to trade fully focused from 7-11 and If I've met my target for the day, stop trading, simply observe the market.

 

Tomorrows plan:

 

Long at a rejection of C. Target is 14 and 22

Long at a Break above A, wait for Ret. Target using trendlines and LH

Long at a bounce of D. Target is 40 and 46

Long at a bounce of the midpoint at 14. Target is 26 and 39

 

Short at rejection of A, target is 34 and 27

Short at a rejection of the midpoint at 34, target is 24 and 14

Short rejection of D, target is 14 and 04

[tupapa 10]

Today was an interesting day, I lost control trying to buy below 03, instead of looking to short, but level C at98 was so tempting, I also got really angry at the market.

 

I took a good long at 89 that was part of the plan but I didn't hold it for long enough, the target should've been the range midpoint, at 13 and the top of the range, around 26, also price gave no indication that it was about to reverse before reaching the targets, so something to work on tomorrow.

 

For tomorrow I see 3 distributions, , price bounced of 13 again today, reinforing the importance of range 2s midpoint.

 

Tomorrows plan is:

 

Long on a bounce of C Target is A

Long bounce of D Target is b and A

Long bounce E or F Target is D and C

Long break of A use Demand line

 

 

Short Rejection A Target is C

Short rejection C Taget is D and E

Short rejection of D target is E and F

[tupapa 10]

I didn't trade on Friday but here is the plan for today.

The Bund is still in the range, but over the past trading days it made a series of Hlows within the range, which favors a breakout to the upside. The market opened a few minutes ago at 11 and buyers came in aggressively.

 

My plan is to look for:

 

Longs at rejection of C, D or E

Longs at a breakout of A

 

Shorts at a rejection of A

 

I find it difficult to justify a short that isn't at the top of the range, since the Daily trend is up, and a breakdown below E could easily lead to a fakeout so today I will favor the long side, unless we break below E and start trending down, in which case I will refer to the levels for the previous range published a few days ago.

[Gringo 10]

Hi Tupapa,

 

Price appears to be in a trading range. Why not wait for the extreme before trading? In my opinion A and E appear to the areas with somewhat lesser risk.

 

Gringo

[tupapa 10]

Yes Gringo, that is exactly what I was reflecting upon last evening and today, thanks for bringing it up. Yesterday I had to much of bullish bias, I thought the series of Hls would favor a break to the upside but that clearly wasn't the case.

 

Today i will do what you've suggested, and trade only the extremes, which may mean taking only 1 or 2 trades during the day.. I will also use the midpoint for entries.

 

So looking at the chart, we are in a clearly defined range and I will look for a long at a bounce of C (83-91 area).

 

Look for a short at a rejection of A (44-48 Area).

 

Look for longs at a break and bounce of B, which is the VPoc of the range.

 

For each trade, the target becomes the Vpoc for 1 lot and the otherside of the range for the other.

 

I will also exit the second lot if price makes a LH or breaks the LSL/LSH

 

 

The most difficult thing I am finding is how much the Bund moves above/below my S/R levels.

 

I will also trade a breakout of A or C, in which case I will enter on a retracement, and use Dbs trend rules for exits.

 

Thanks Gringo and look forward to reading more of ur comments! (and great work on the daily trading thread )

 

 

P.S= I am also including 143.04 as a potential level. Traders have payed attention to it recently and it is the lower limit of the higher volume distribution (143.04-143.22) inside the larger distribution.

[tupapa 10]

Today was my worst day so far, technycaly my mistakes were:

 

1- Didn't wait for clear bounce and hesitated, wasn't sure what I was looking for because I still havent clearly defined my setup.

 

2- To much focus on correlation with Dax and S andP

 

3- Realized but didnt take into account the fact that the market was making Lower Highs and Lower Lows, hence there was no reason to go long.

 

4- My plan was incomplete, I had no plan for price breaking below the range lows.

 

5- Trading counter trend.

 

Psychologicaly, I also showed many mistakes, such as fear of missing out and fear of taking a loser!

 

 

So its been a shit day, I've been thinking about blaming the market, because maybe it doesnt obey the principles of the wyckoff forum, but in reality, I know its my fault.

 

I still havent defined my setup precisely and every time I start to test it, I get lost as every day seems different.. I foresee a long time before I start trading live, and a lot of work ahead...

[tupapa 10]

The day isnt over but this is tomorrows plan so far, I will make any pertinent changes in the morning.

 

Longs:

Bounce of 30,

Bounce of 15,

Bounce of 142.00

Move above 142.58

Move above a42.73

 

Shorts

Rejection 142.58

Beloow 142.30

rejection of 142.73

[tupapa 10]

Today I followd my levels but failed to execute my setups properly, I did the opposite of what my plan says, I didn't go long when price bounced and rejected, and I went long went price fell against support and the sellers were nowhere to be seen...

 

Tomorrows plan is as follows.

 

At D look for a long on a Bounce, if we break below D, look for a short on a retest from the downside.

At C look for a short, if we move above this, look for a long on the re-test.

At B look for a short, if we move above look for a long on a retest

At A look for a short.

 

If we break below D, the next level is E, where I will go Long on a bounce,

 

Below this its hard to find any levels, but maybe that VPoc at 84.

[tupapa 10]

Today I bought 05s, which was the IB low and also took a loser selling the VPoc at 14. The market es extremely, ranging between 24 and 04, so tomorrows levels prevail.

 

The plan is to Buy reversals at 23 and 04, buy above 23 a re-test, and sell below 04s a retest.

[tupapa 10]

Fridays trading, my executiong wasnt great but I felt good rading, generaly chilled out, not giving much importance to winning or losing.

[tupapa 10]

Tomorrows plan at my Pre-defined levels:

 

-E: Look to buy a bounce, if we break below, sell a retracement and there really isn't much to stop price from falling to 141.67, so this could be a potential target.

 

At D: look for a rejection or a bounce, hold on and wait for price to test C, or E, if we reject, get out, if we slide through hold.

 

At C look for a short, the target becomes D and E. FI we move above C, look to buy and hold until B

 

Look for shorts on a rejection of B, target becomes C

 

Look to buy a retracement above B, the target then becomes A

[tupapa 10]

Today I felt confortable with my plan, and it was a great way to contextualize what the market was doing, I need to keep working on my plan and improve my execution.

 

Tomorrows plan is:

 

At B look for shorts on a rejection, then target would become the low of the range at D, but watch how price reacts at the MP C and judge, if it rejects SAR.

 

Look for longs above B on a ret. target is 71 and 83

 

At D look for longs on a rejection, and use C and B as targets

 

Below B, short a ret, the target becomes F and G

[tupapa 10]

I found it hard to accept that there will only be a few opportunities in the day, and most of the time I need to be watching, if I miss a trade, it doesn't mean I should find a new one straight away, the chances are that I will have to wait for some time until I find a new opportunity.

 

1- Missed the best entry of the day according to my plan because I wasn't fast enough hitting market, if the pattern is clear and its part of the plan I should take it and assume the risk.

 

2- Once I missed the good entry, I tried shorting against the trend when there where no opportunities, I need to accept that I missed a good entry, and move on to the next opportunity, which could take several hours to appear.

 

3- I got angry because I missed the initial move and this prevented me from thinking clearly during the rest of the day.

 

 

Positives

 

1- Was in tune with the trend and spoted some good opportunities, failed to execute them properly.

2- Stayed focus and spoted some good opportunities in the afternoon, didn't become completely reckless.

 

 

Tomorrows Goals

 

1- Work on the execution of my setups, initially use limit orders but if I don't get a fill, make sure I hit market, this is my goal for the day.

 

 

 

 

Tomorrows plan:

 

Price is in a macro range between A and D, so tomorrows plan is:

 

At A sell a rejection, above this look to buy.

 

at B sell a rejection, above this look to buy.

 

at D buy a rejection, below this look to sell

[tupapa 10]

It feels bad seeing a trend day develop in front of me, and not taking part in it, specially since I anticipated this exact scenario before the open.

 

Why didn't I get long? BEcause I was waiting for the perfect entry, a break of Sl and r-test formed by 2bars that ftb. My goal for today was being more aggressive with my entries and I haven't accomplished this so far.

 

There where several reasons to have entered in each case.

 

THe 08:00 entry: the low is higher than the previous, and price is above the VPoc, also there was big volume and no result, the bar was very narrow which shows absorption. This is something to integrate in my entry criteria.

 

The 08:30 entry, there was no re test of Sl but it was only a marginally lower low, which should also validate an entry.

 

The positive is that I didn't get angry and start shorting the uptrend like I would've done recently, but this is no consolation for the fact that I have some serious work ahead, in order to improve my entry execution.

 

In the 3d trade, I wasn't fast enough doing a SAR.

[Gringo 10]

Tupapa ,

 

First long is within a TR. Despite that if you wish to take the long the RET comes at 142.37 and you could enter at the subsequent rise.

 

Second long has a RET at 142.52. Once price rises from this RET you hop on.

 

Gringo

[tupapa 10]

Tupapa ,

 

First long is within a TR. Despite that if you wish to take the long the RET comes at 142.37 and you could enter at the subsequent rise.

 

Second long has a RET at 142.52. Once price rises from this RET you hop on.

 

Gringo

 

 

Ah I know G, I didn't take the first ret at 142.37 because I was waiting for break of Sl and 2 1m bars that ftb closer to 35.

 

The second RET 142.52 I avoided because I Prefer to wait for a test of the initial balance high.

 

THe second entry that was part of my plan, I passed again because after the break of the Sl, I didn't get a retest of the 48 area.

 

I think I am being to hesitant jumping in and I am always waiting for an illusive perfect entry...

 

Thanks for your comments mate, I think I am getting much better at reading what the market is trying to do, but I am struggling to execute the plan flawlessly. Over the past few days, my drama seems to be focused on missing good trades that are part of the plan because I am waiting for that "perfect entry".

 

This is clearly something that I will have to work on, amongst other personal weaknesses.

 

Thanks for your thoughts, look forward to reading more of your views and advise.

[Gringo 10]

Your plan doesn't mention 'test' of previous balance highs for longs does it?

 

Gringo

[tupapa 10]

Unfortunately Tl won't allow me to update my first post, so I can't share my new updated plan, but one of the new setups that I have tested, and that has a high probability in the Bund is the test of the Initial Balance High/Low

 

It isn't Wyckoff, but works just as well

[tupapa 10]

In the afternoon I made some revenge trades and 1 good trade that is part of the system..

 

Tomorrow I will make sure I hit market if I don't get filled, this is the plan:

 

At D look for longs on a bounce.

 

At B look for shorts on a rejection.

 

At A look for shorts on a rejection.

 

Short 143.45 if it gets up there.

[tupapa 10]

This morning shows how simple trading can be, when you have a solid plan. Price has bounced between D and F all morning, levels that I identified yesterday and planed for.

 

Unfortunately, simplicity doesn't equate to easiness, and it is my emotions and fears that have led, once again, to a mediocre performance.

 

So far, I have followed my goal of not waiting for the perfect entry, and being more aggressive, getting in on retracements, such as the ones Gringo pointed out yesterday.

 

My problem today, has been not having the balls to hold to my trades, getting out when the market moves against me, and in 1 trade not waiting for a rejection and ret. So this afternoon and from now on I shall:

 

1- Wait for a rejection and at least 1 retracement, which I define as at least 1 minute bar that compresses after the rejection.

 

2- Place my entry and stop, minimize the ladder and let the trade develop, do not get out unless my stop gets hit.

 

3- Never avoid a trade because I think I know what the market will do next, always listen to the Highs and Lows that show market direction.

 

Is is not all bad however, there are some improvements in my performance:

 

1- I don't revenge trade anymore, taking the opposite side of a trade if I don't get filled like I used to do.

 

2- I have the discipline to wait for the high probability trades of S/R

 

3- Today I have been more aggressive with my entries, which is important.

[tupapa 10]

As I said this morning, today was extremely simple:

 

1- Price couldnt get above D short, after this buyers support price at F, so a long was legit.

 

My issues today were the result of fears, and looking for excuses to take the risk, such as:

 

1- Didnt let price hit my target or my stop

 

2- Didnt get in because of the time of the day or because I thought equities would fall, or other excuses, all excuses not to assume the risk.

 

• Tomorrows goal is to take the risk, place the stop and let the trade develop, regardless of any excuse.
   
  
• Like today, make sure I enter on the ret, dont wait for the illusive entry.
  

 

 

 

Tomorrows plan:

 

At F look for a long or a short if we break below.

 

At E look for a long.

 

At D look for a short or a long if we stay above.

 

At B look for a short or longs if we break above.

 

C and A are marginal levels showing the higher value area inside the macro distribution, they could come in handy but I won't rely on them

[tupapa 10]

So far, price is finding support at G, which is the lower limit of that first 64-89 distribution, and resistance at C, which is the midpoint of the larger 89-45 distribution. so these are my main levels for today.

 

 

At A I will look for shorts on a rejection.

 

At B I will watch out for a rejection, but I consider this a minor level and will see how traders react to this swing high.

 

At C I will look for a short on a rejection, or longs if we move above this, the target becomes A

 

D is also a minor level but could give place to a nice long, it is also the VPoc of the current range.

 

At F I will look to go long on a bounce.

 

At G I will look for longs on a rejection and shorts if we break below, the target is H.