Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

tupapa

Tupapa's Log

Recommended Posts

This morning price found R at C, but then broke through and I didn't move my stop to BE, which was an error.

 

It then moved all the way up to D, where it V-reversed, and then found Support at C, then all the way up to D again,l where it triple topped and traveled to the IBL, where it found Support. Unfortunately I didn't have a level here so I didn't take this.

 

For the afternoon, it seems like C is losing its importance, and the market is range bound between D and the IBL.

 

Plan is to buy the IBL and short D on rejections. if we break D, short E on a rejection

If we break the IBL, go long at B.

 

If we break any of these levels short a pullback.

5aa711a120c84_15-1morning.thumb.png.98458d6736143738c05b8df7c4171c0b.png

5aa711a126643_15-1afternoonpremarket.thumb.png.9f9ddcb7a0540202492fb5d2ac70a94e.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's afternoon trading was ok, given the few opportunities following my plan.

 

For tomorrow:

 

Short a rejection of C

 

Long at E

 

If we break below, short a pullback as usual, the rest of the level also apply.

5aa711a158e86_16-11PREMARKET.thumb.png.ce67ee74b497df2a078497fd3c5186ea.png

5aa711a160cb1_15-11afternoon.thumb.png.19b55f3afa6c2e6c1b65012b7ca4af0d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Few changes to the plan to reflect the evening session:

 

At B go long if hold above, if we break below short a pullback and look for a reversal at C.

 

At A short a rejection, if we break above watch out for D for a reversal, if we hold above A go long and watch for a reversal at E

5aa711a2152f8_16-11pre.thumb.png.59d19e75ef631da6184b25d9630cbd1d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First looking at yesterdays trading:

 

I found conditions very choppy in the morning, but kept trading, losing ticks when I should've stayed out of the market. It isn't the first time that I experience a choppy market and it's very difficult to keep a stop

 

Secondly in the afternoon, I missed the best trade, short the pullback to 60 because I was focused on a double bottom pattern, this is irrelevant and the break of TL and test is a perfect entry.

 

Today has been a pretty crazy morning and I haven't been controlled. Exiting the short at 18, when I had so many reasons to stay in it made me mad at myself and I lost focus.

 

For the afternoon,l the plan is:

 

Buy A and sell B

 

if we break below A sell a pullback

16-11.thumb.png.53ca2b9331a5506e114a8b2346f93a4e.png

5aa711a36cf51_17-11afternoonplan.thumb.png.53923322ec565b3a10abac4ff4e0fe34.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's story, and how I perceived things, which resulted in a mediocre morning and a terrible afternoon:

 

7:16- Looks more like Ret than Rev

7:43- Comes up very quickly, don't wanna short against it.

8:03- Market falls, I wanna short a test of 48

8:12- Climax and break of Tl, don't wanna short anymore, dont want shorts

 

From here I went long at 46, thinking it was the climax re-test.

 

After this I didn't hold to my short at 18, which was the trade of the day, and my trading got worse and worse during the afternoon, I lost control and went absolutely mental after 12.

 

Errors:

 

1- Imagining patterns, climax and re-tests.

 

2- Following other traders.

 

3- Not holding to my winners.

 

4- Entering on "mini ranges" against the trend, when there is no real rejection but acceptance and my stops get hit.

 

5- Using tight stops which lead to very frustrating losers.

 

More importantly, I just didn't follow the plan and until I can do this, I shouldn't trade real money, it is very frustrating seing how If I'd followed the plan, I'd made money. When I am in front of the screen, I think I focus to much on the intraday levels, and forget my 30m levels, which are what I should be trading.

 

Tomorrow its long A ans short B, lets see if I can follow this.

5aa711a398834_17-11morning.thumb.png.c9464b7dbbdcdaa8a4c7ef1d3e6dd567.png

5aa711a39fcaf_17-11afternoon.thumb.png.7465f1cd667bfd18b73dde78d71f6d88.png

5aa711a3a465d_18-11pre.thumb.png.cf78addf8854e2bb5f548b9303ae3da9.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This morning there was no test of 38 and hence no short.

 

I tried shorting the IBL on two occasions but was looking for to good prices and confirmation, at the same time, so didn't get fills. After this I was patient and waited for my next level, which was 94. Here price went through it like a knife through butter, and I shorted the pullback.

 

There was a double bottom at 87, which was part of the plan, but I wasn't fast enough to SAR, after this I got in at 11:00, but didn't hold for long enough.

 

This afternoon, the plan is:

 

At A go Long, if we break short a pullback.

At 142.78 go long on a rejection, if we break, short a pullback.

 

Above price there is resistance at B and C, sho a short of either level would be called for on a rejection.

5aa711a5babd1_21-1afternoonplan.thumb.png.31fb834fddc5a54fc2e3b540a7ce4d17.png

5aa711a5c189f_21-1morning.thumb.png.c50ea8ba15572e648ed0a1ddd28b6360.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This afternoon I only made one more trade which was part of the plan, long at 87 and out 94.

 

Overall a good disciplined day, I could've been more aggressive entering at the IBL and I didn't hold the winner at 11:00 for long enough.

 

A part from that a good day.

5aa711a662ea4_22-1pre.thumb.png.fda312d1ea33eee132e7f59a06d25ffd.png

5aa711a66a10d_21-1afternoon.thumb.png.15cdb886c5982aa97ff42e9ecd639e1f.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tomorrow I will upload today's trading. The plan for the day is initially to look for a reversal at A,B,C or D, although depending on where we open, other levels could come into play.

5aa711a71f081_23-1pre.png.1c543df019665834dd20317677a015ee.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Attached is yesterdays trading, which was my best performance so far.

 

This morning traders paid attention to 38, but I wasn't fast enough to enter the 1m double top or the IBH test.

 

After this Price found Support at 07, and is now in the middle of the profile. Or of this was determined in foresight, but planning and execution are two completely different skills, my execution needs much improvement.

 

For the afternoon:

 

Short the IBH rejection at 37

Long on a pullback to 28 (we've jsut broken)

Short rejecion of45

Short rejection of 55

Short rejection of 61-64

22-1.thumb.png.7358b4d5dfc33b31a1e5d5b744b9bf8f.png

5aa711a767461_23-1afternoon.JPG.39bf0097ebddfb584d1e681d6d680f6d.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How price reacted to the morning plan:

 

It found good support at 40, which I perceived but didn't take because it was 2 ticks away from my level at 38.

 

Then it blasted through 64 and 78, and I hadn't planed for levels above this, which was a mistake from my part, since it lead to confusion.

 

Then we pulled back to 78, but found Support at 73, where there is Single prints and air below, it is now an important level.

 

For the afternoon:

 

Short a rejection of C, if we break above, buy a pullback.

 

Long if B holds, if we break, short a pullback.

 

Long on a rejection of A, below this, short a pullback.

5aa711a867b68_24-1afternoon.thumb.png.ab2cca6acd3d1920319800b93bb93f98.png

23-1.thumb.png.1986d093bc22c59873e27c1543925b3a.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's trading wasn't great, because I failed to perceive the change in trend at 12:00 and kept looking for longs. I also missed some important info on the profile, that would've enabled me to make some good trades, instead of perceiving them after they'd taken place.

 

In order to avoid this, I am incorporating a periodic MP, Trend and S/R assessment throughout the day.

5aa711a898442_25-1pre.thumb.png.dc9666beec4d8c03836729ab3a3702b6.png

24-1.thumb.png.51b053b7aabced04d5d48f7c5ecfc3bc.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A recap on the Bunds most recent action:

 

After the fakeout on thursday, there was a very strong downtrend on friday. Friday's bar is extremely wide, showing very strong selling pressure, and a breakout to the downside seems likely, specially after sellers rejected the all time highs around 146.00

 

I don't know where we'll open tomorrow, but if there is a Gap down, 141.92 could come into play as support, below this there is 141.37, between these two levels, 141.64 could act as S/R, since it is the MP of that small daily range.

 

On the 60m chart, the most relevant levels are 142.21, which was the low point of friday, and also the lower limit of the value area of the current range. Below this there is the swing low 142.07, this level seems less relevant, because we are below value, and traders really haven't spent any time around here, we could easily slide through it like a knife through butter.

 

Now on to the 15m chart and the plan for the day:

 

If we open above 142.21, look to go long if there is a rejection of this level.

 

Above this level, a short is called on a rejection of the following: 142.36, 142.60 and 142.79. Although it seems unlikely that we'll get to 142.79, it is also the 50% ret of the most recent downmove.

 

Below 142.21, look to go short if sellers reject the level.

If buyers step in and reverse the trend at 142.07, go long.

Watch out for a potential reversal at 142.00, traders love round numbers, below this, look for a reversal at 141.92, for the reasons mentioned in the daily chart analysis.

5aa711aa3eabf_Bunddaily27-1.png.622d9f29246c0df834007aaae1523d0c.png

5aa711aa43528_Bund60m27-1.png.4f4e3a264c1d993e41d95bb435b42422.png

5aa711aa47a10_27-115m.png.d8fe55e23de1760d73ab723c7623f5af.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Price found R at 53, which was a swing high on the 15m I didn't mention yesterday. Then it broke below 20 and 06, didn't pullback to 06, instead made a LH at 03.

 

After this there was PSupport at 141.75 and support at 141.64, which was a level and ended up being the low of the day.

 

Tomorrows plan:

 

Long rejection of 141.37, from yesterdays daily analysis.

Long rejection of 141.64, if we fall below, short a pullback

Long Rejection of 141.85

 

Short rejection of 142.03

Short rejection of 142.11

Short Rejection of 142.20

5aa711aaca5af_29-1pre.png.2b0183b2541a188916b2e99bee2111cb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This morning was bad for me, I was to focused on following the plan, and lost sight of how choppy the market was, I started taking 2 losers, on one of them I didn't move my stop to breakeven, and after this I lost focus, I was angry and didn't realize how choppy the market was.

 

Price was paying no attention whatsoever to my levels, and that should've been a sign to stop me from trading, until the market picked a direction.

 

When the market is moving so sluggishly, making marginally HHs or LLs but not picking a direction, there is a lot of potential for account destruction. I am trying to see this as an experience that I can learn from, as opposed to a failure.

 

In order to avoid getting caught in this sort of conditions again, I am including a "choppiness" in my 2 hourly conditions assessment, if there are no trends in the market, there is no point in trading it.

30-1.thumb.png.fe96c849c89ee591648063a91ca83ff9.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tomorrow's Plan:

 

Long on a rejection of A

Short Rejection of B

Short Rejection of C

Short Rejection of D

 

Long rejection of E

Long Rejection of F

 

Are you only trading REVs?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When prices reach your levels, do you look for actionable patterns (DB, DT, HL, LH, Hinges and SBs?

 

I have found that looking for these kind of patterns on the tick chart when price reaches S/R helps me avoid some of the chop.

 

I have not tested that extensively, but for example, when approaching R a DT followed by a break of DL increases the probability of success, besides, entering in the tick gives you razor thin stops. The problem I am dealing with now is how to get out of the tick and manage the trade following longer term waves.

 

Just my 2 cents.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.