Tupapa's Log

[tupapa 10]

This morning price found R at C, but then broke through and I didn't move my stop to BE, which was an error.

 

It then moved all the way up to D, where it V-reversed, and then found Support at C, then all the way up to D again,l where it triple topped and traveled to the IBL, where it found Support. Unfortunately I didn't have a level here so I didn't take this.

 

For the afternoon, it seems like C is losing its importance, and the market is range bound between D and the IBL.

 

Plan is to buy the IBL and short D on rejections. if we break D, short E on a rejection

If we break the IBL, go long at B.

 

If we break any of these levels short a pullback.

[tupapa 10]

Today's afternoon trading was ok, given the few opportunities following my plan.

 

For tomorrow:

 

Short a rejection of C

 

Long at E

 

If we break below, short a pullback as usual, the rest of the level also apply.

[tupapa 10]

Few changes to the plan to reflect the evening session:

 

At B go long if hold above, if we break below short a pullback and look for a reversal at C.

 

At A short a rejection, if we break above watch out for D for a reversal, if we hold above A go long and watch for a reversal at E

[Niko 10]

Hi Tupapa, I hope your trading plan is going well.

[tupapa 10]

Tomorrow I will upload and discuss today's trading, which was extremely interesting.

 

The plan is based around S/R as usual:

 

I will look for reversals at ABCD.

[tupapa 10]

First looking at yesterdays trading:

 

I found conditions very choppy in the morning, but kept trading, losing ticks when I should've stayed out of the market. It isn't the first time that I experience a choppy market and it's very difficult to keep a stop

 

Secondly in the afternoon, I missed the best trade, short the pullback to 60 because I was focused on a double bottom pattern, this is irrelevant and the break of TL and test is a perfect entry.

 

Today has been a pretty crazy morning and I haven't been controlled. Exiting the short at 18, when I had so many reasons to stay in it made me mad at myself and I lost focus.

 

For the afternoon,l the plan is:

 

Buy A and sell B

 

if we break below A sell a pullback

[tupapa 10]

Today's story, and how I perceived things, which resulted in a mediocre morning and a terrible afternoon:

 

7:16- Looks more like Ret than Rev

7:43- Comes up very quickly, don't wanna short against it.

8:03- Market falls, I wanna short a test of 48

8:12- Climax and break of Tl, don't wanna short anymore, dont want shorts

 

From here I went long at 46, thinking it was the climax re-test.

 

After this I didn't hold to my short at 18, which was the trade of the day, and my trading got worse and worse during the afternoon, I lost control and went absolutely mental after 12.

 

Errors:

 

1- Imagining patterns, climax and re-tests.

 

2- Following other traders.

 

3- Not holding to my winners.

 

4- Entering on "mini ranges" against the trend, when there is no real rejection but acceptance and my stops get hit.

 

5- Using tight stops which lead to very frustrating losers.

 

More importantly, I just didn't follow the plan and until I can do this, I shouldn't trade real money, it is very frustrating seing how If I'd followed the plan, I'd made money. When I am in front of the screen, I think I focus to much on the intraday levels, and forget my 30m levels, which are what I should be trading.

 

Tomorrow its long A ans short B, lets see if I can follow this.

[tupapa 10]

Tomorrow I am looking at reversals at the following levels:

[tupapa 10]

This morning there was no test of 38 and hence no short.

 

I tried shorting the IBL on two occasions but was looking for to good prices and confirmation, at the same time, so didn't get fills. After this I was patient and waited for my next level, which was 94. Here price went through it like a knife through butter, and I shorted the pullback.

 

There was a double bottom at 87, which was part of the plan, but I wasn't fast enough to SAR, after this I got in at 11:00, but didn't hold for long enough.

 

This afternoon, the plan is:

 

At A go Long, if we break short a pullback.

At 142.78 go long on a rejection, if we break, short a pullback.

 

Above price there is resistance at B and C, sho a short of either level would be called for on a rejection.

[tupapa 10]

This afternoon I only made one more trade which was part of the plan, long at 87 and out 94.

 

Overall a good disciplined day, I could've been more aggressive entering at the IBL and I didn't hold the winner at 11:00 for long enough.

 

A part from that a good day.

[tupapa 10]

Tomorrow I will upload today's trading. The plan for the day is initially to look for a reversal at A,B,C or D, although depending on where we open, other levels could come into play.

[tupapa 10]

Attached is yesterdays trading, which was my best performance so far.

 

This morning traders paid attention to 38, but I wasn't fast enough to enter the 1m double top or the IBH test.

 

After this Price found Support at 07, and is now in the middle of the profile. Or of this was determined in foresight, but planning and execution are two completely different skills, my execution needs much improvement.

 

For the afternoon:

 

Short the IBH rejection at 37

Long on a pullback to 28 (we've jsut broken)

Short rejecion of45

Short rejection of 55

Short rejection of 61-64

[tupapa 10]

Tomorrows Plan:

 

Short a rejection of 64, above this short 78.

Long a bounce of 38, if we break below short a pullback to 38.

Long a bounce of 28

[tupapa 10]

How price reacted to the morning plan:

 

It found good support at 40, which I perceived but didn't take because it was 2 ticks away from my level at 38.

 

Then it blasted through 64 and 78, and I hadn't planed for levels above this, which was a mistake from my part, since it lead to confusion.

 

Then we pulled back to 78, but found Support at 73, where there is Single prints and air below, it is now an important level.

 

For the afternoon:

 

Short a rejection of C, if we break above, buy a pullback.

 

Long if B holds, if we break, short a pullback.

 

Long on a rejection of A, below this, short a pullback.

[tupapa 10]

Today's trading wasn't great, because I failed to perceive the change in trend at 12:00 and kept looking for longs. I also missed some important info on the profile, that would've enabled me to make some good trades, instead of perceiving them after they'd taken place.

 

In order to avoid this, I am incorporating a periodic MP, Trend and S/R assessment throughout the day.

[tupapa 10]

Today's trading, I will go through this and the rest of the week over the weekend. It feels great when you have a plan, follow it and works just as you anticipated it.

[tupapa 10]

A recap on the Bunds most recent action:

 

After the fakeout on thursday, there was a very strong downtrend on friday. Friday's bar is extremely wide, showing very strong selling pressure, and a breakout to the downside seems likely, specially after sellers rejected the all time highs around 146.00

 

I don't know where we'll open tomorrow, but if there is a Gap down, 141.92 could come into play as support, below this there is 141.37, between these two levels, 141.64 could act as S/R, since it is the MP of that small daily range.

 

On the 60m chart, the most relevant levels are 142.21, which was the low point of friday, and also the lower limit of the value area of the current range. Below this there is the swing low 142.07, this level seems less relevant, because we are below value, and traders really haven't spent any time around here, we could easily slide through it like a knife through butter.

 

Now on to the 15m chart and the plan for the day:

 

If we open above 142.21, look to go long if there is a rejection of this level.

 

Above this level, a short is called on a rejection of the following: 142.36, 142.60 and 142.79. Although it seems unlikely that we'll get to 142.79, it is also the 50% ret of the most recent downmove.

 

Below 142.21, look to go short if sellers reject the level.

If buyers step in and reverse the trend at 142.07, go long.

Watch out for a potential reversal at 142.00, traders love round numbers, below this, look for a reversal at 141.92, for the reasons mentioned in the daily chart analysis.

[tupapa 10]

Price found R at 53, which was a swing high on the 15m I didn't mention yesterday. Then it broke below 20 and 06, didn't pullback to 06, instead made a LH at 03.

 

After this there was PSupport at 141.75 and support at 141.64, which was a level and ended up being the low of the day.

 

Tomorrows plan:

 

Long rejection of 141.37, from yesterdays daily analysis.

Long rejection of 141.64, if we fall below, short a pullback

Long Rejection of 141.85

 

Short rejection of 142.03

Short rejection of 142.11

Short Rejection of 142.20

[tupapa 10]

Yesterdays and todays trading

[tupapa 10]

Today's Plan:

 

Buy Rejection of A, if we break below, short a pullback.

 

Sell Rejection of D, if we break above, buy pullback and sell rejection of B

[tupapa 10]

This morning was bad for me, I was to focused on following the plan, and lost sight of how choppy the market was, I started taking 2 losers, on one of them I didn't move my stop to breakeven, and after this I lost focus, I was angry and didn't realize how choppy the market was.

 

Price was paying no attention whatsoever to my levels, and that should've been a sign to stop me from trading, until the market picked a direction.

 

When the market is moving so sluggishly, making marginally HHs or LLs but not picking a direction, there is a lot of potential for account destruction. I am trying to see this as an experience that I can learn from, as opposed to a failure.

 

In order to avoid getting caught in this sort of conditions again, I am including a "choppiness" in my 2 hourly conditions assessment, if there are no trends in the market, there is no point in trading it.

[tupapa 10]

Tomorrows Levels, I will update the plan in the morning

[tupapa 10]

Tomorrow's Plan:

 

Long on a rejection of A

Short Rejection of B

Short Rejection of C

Short Rejection of D

 

Long rejection of E

Long Rejection of F

[Niko 10]

Tomorrow's Plan:

 

Long on a rejection of A

Short Rejection of B

Short Rejection of C

Short Rejection of D

 

Long rejection of E

Long Rejection of F

 

Are you only trading REVs?

[Niko 10]

When prices reach your levels, do you look for actionable patterns (DB, DT, HL, LH, Hinges and SBs?

 

I have found that looking for these kind of patterns on the tick chart when price reaches S/R helps me avoid some of the chop.

 

I have not tested that extensively, but for example, when approaching R a DT followed by a break of DL increases the probability of success, besides, entering in the tick gives you razor thin stops. The problem I am dealing with now is how to get out of the tick and manage the trade following longer term waves.

 

Just my 2 cents.