Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

tupapa

Tupapa's Log

Recommended Posts

This morning price found R at C, but then broke through and I didn't move my stop to BE, which was an error.

 

It then moved all the way up to D, where it V-reversed, and then found Support at C, then all the way up to D again,l where it triple topped and traveled to the IBL, where it found Support. Unfortunately I didn't have a level here so I didn't take this.

 

For the afternoon, it seems like C is losing its importance, and the market is range bound between D and the IBL.

 

Plan is to buy the IBL and short D on rejections. if we break D, short E on a rejection

If we break the IBL, go long at B.

 

If we break any of these levels short a pullback.

5aa711a120c84_15-1morning.thumb.png.98458d6736143738c05b8df7c4171c0b.png

5aa711a126643_15-1afternoonpremarket.thumb.png.9f9ddcb7a0540202492fb5d2ac70a94e.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's afternoon trading was ok, given the few opportunities following my plan.

 

For tomorrow:

 

Short a rejection of C

 

Long at E

 

If we break below, short a pullback as usual, the rest of the level also apply.

5aa711a158e86_16-11PREMARKET.thumb.png.ce67ee74b497df2a078497fd3c5186ea.png

5aa711a160cb1_15-11afternoon.thumb.png.19b55f3afa6c2e6c1b65012b7ca4af0d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Few changes to the plan to reflect the evening session:

 

At B go long if hold above, if we break below short a pullback and look for a reversal at C.

 

At A short a rejection, if we break above watch out for D for a reversal, if we hold above A go long and watch for a reversal at E

5aa711a2152f8_16-11pre.thumb.png.59d19e75ef631da6184b25d9630cbd1d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First looking at yesterdays trading:

 

I found conditions very choppy in the morning, but kept trading, losing ticks when I should've stayed out of the market. It isn't the first time that I experience a choppy market and it's very difficult to keep a stop

 

Secondly in the afternoon, I missed the best trade, short the pullback to 60 because I was focused on a double bottom pattern, this is irrelevant and the break of TL and test is a perfect entry.

 

Today has been a pretty crazy morning and I haven't been controlled. Exiting the short at 18, when I had so many reasons to stay in it made me mad at myself and I lost focus.

 

For the afternoon,l the plan is:

 

Buy A and sell B

 

if we break below A sell a pullback

16-11.thumb.png.53ca2b9331a5506e114a8b2346f93a4e.png

5aa711a36cf51_17-11afternoonplan.thumb.png.53923322ec565b3a10abac4ff4e0fe34.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's story, and how I perceived things, which resulted in a mediocre morning and a terrible afternoon:

 

7:16- Looks more like Ret than Rev

7:43- Comes up very quickly, don't wanna short against it.

8:03- Market falls, I wanna short a test of 48

8:12- Climax and break of Tl, don't wanna short anymore, dont want shorts

 

From here I went long at 46, thinking it was the climax re-test.

 

After this I didn't hold to my short at 18, which was the trade of the day, and my trading got worse and worse during the afternoon, I lost control and went absolutely mental after 12.

 

Errors:

 

1- Imagining patterns, climax and re-tests.

 

2- Following other traders.

 

3- Not holding to my winners.

 

4- Entering on "mini ranges" against the trend, when there is no real rejection but acceptance and my stops get hit.

 

5- Using tight stops which lead to very frustrating losers.

 

More importantly, I just didn't follow the plan and until I can do this, I shouldn't trade real money, it is very frustrating seing how If I'd followed the plan, I'd made money. When I am in front of the screen, I think I focus to much on the intraday levels, and forget my 30m levels, which are what I should be trading.

 

Tomorrow its long A ans short B, lets see if I can follow this.

5aa711a398834_17-11morning.thumb.png.c9464b7dbbdcdaa8a4c7ef1d3e6dd567.png

5aa711a39fcaf_17-11afternoon.thumb.png.7465f1cd667bfd18b73dde78d71f6d88.png

5aa711a3a465d_18-11pre.thumb.png.cf78addf8854e2bb5f548b9303ae3da9.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This morning there was no test of 38 and hence no short.

 

I tried shorting the IBL on two occasions but was looking for to good prices and confirmation, at the same time, so didn't get fills. After this I was patient and waited for my next level, which was 94. Here price went through it like a knife through butter, and I shorted the pullback.

 

There was a double bottom at 87, which was part of the plan, but I wasn't fast enough to SAR, after this I got in at 11:00, but didn't hold for long enough.

 

This afternoon, the plan is:

 

At A go Long, if we break short a pullback.

At 142.78 go long on a rejection, if we break, short a pullback.

 

Above price there is resistance at B and C, sho a short of either level would be called for on a rejection.

5aa711a5babd1_21-1afternoonplan.thumb.png.31fb834fddc5a54fc2e3b540a7ce4d17.png

5aa711a5c189f_21-1morning.thumb.png.c50ea8ba15572e648ed0a1ddd28b6360.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This afternoon I only made one more trade which was part of the plan, long at 87 and out 94.

 

Overall a good disciplined day, I could've been more aggressive entering at the IBL and I didn't hold the winner at 11:00 for long enough.

 

A part from that a good day.

5aa711a662ea4_22-1pre.thumb.png.fda312d1ea33eee132e7f59a06d25ffd.png

5aa711a66a10d_21-1afternoon.thumb.png.15cdb886c5982aa97ff42e9ecd639e1f.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tomorrow I will upload today's trading. The plan for the day is initially to look for a reversal at A,B,C or D, although depending on where we open, other levels could come into play.

5aa711a71f081_23-1pre.png.1c543df019665834dd20317677a015ee.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Attached is yesterdays trading, which was my best performance so far.

 

This morning traders paid attention to 38, but I wasn't fast enough to enter the 1m double top or the IBH test.

 

After this Price found Support at 07, and is now in the middle of the profile. Or of this was determined in foresight, but planning and execution are two completely different skills, my execution needs much improvement.

 

For the afternoon:

 

Short the IBH rejection at 37

Long on a pullback to 28 (we've jsut broken)

Short rejecion of45

Short rejection of 55

Short rejection of 61-64

22-1.thumb.png.7358b4d5dfc33b31a1e5d5b744b9bf8f.png

5aa711a767461_23-1afternoon.JPG.39bf0097ebddfb584d1e681d6d680f6d.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How price reacted to the morning plan:

 

It found good support at 40, which I perceived but didn't take because it was 2 ticks away from my level at 38.

 

Then it blasted through 64 and 78, and I hadn't planed for levels above this, which was a mistake from my part, since it lead to confusion.

 

Then we pulled back to 78, but found Support at 73, where there is Single prints and air below, it is now an important level.

 

For the afternoon:

 

Short a rejection of C, if we break above, buy a pullback.

 

Long if B holds, if we break, short a pullback.

 

Long on a rejection of A, below this, short a pullback.

5aa711a867b68_24-1afternoon.thumb.png.ab2cca6acd3d1920319800b93bb93f98.png

23-1.thumb.png.1986d093bc22c59873e27c1543925b3a.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's trading wasn't great, because I failed to perceive the change in trend at 12:00 and kept looking for longs. I also missed some important info on the profile, that would've enabled me to make some good trades, instead of perceiving them after they'd taken place.

 

In order to avoid this, I am incorporating a periodic MP, Trend and S/R assessment throughout the day.

5aa711a898442_25-1pre.thumb.png.dc9666beec4d8c03836729ab3a3702b6.png

24-1.thumb.png.51b053b7aabced04d5d48f7c5ecfc3bc.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A recap on the Bunds most recent action:

 

After the fakeout on thursday, there was a very strong downtrend on friday. Friday's bar is extremely wide, showing very strong selling pressure, and a breakout to the downside seems likely, specially after sellers rejected the all time highs around 146.00

 

I don't know where we'll open tomorrow, but if there is a Gap down, 141.92 could come into play as support, below this there is 141.37, between these two levels, 141.64 could act as S/R, since it is the MP of that small daily range.

 

On the 60m chart, the most relevant levels are 142.21, which was the low point of friday, and also the lower limit of the value area of the current range. Below this there is the swing low 142.07, this level seems less relevant, because we are below value, and traders really haven't spent any time around here, we could easily slide through it like a knife through butter.

 

Now on to the 15m chart and the plan for the day:

 

If we open above 142.21, look to go long if there is a rejection of this level.

 

Above this level, a short is called on a rejection of the following: 142.36, 142.60 and 142.79. Although it seems unlikely that we'll get to 142.79, it is also the 50% ret of the most recent downmove.

 

Below 142.21, look to go short if sellers reject the level.

If buyers step in and reverse the trend at 142.07, go long.

Watch out for a potential reversal at 142.00, traders love round numbers, below this, look for a reversal at 141.92, for the reasons mentioned in the daily chart analysis.

5aa711aa3eabf_Bunddaily27-1.png.622d9f29246c0df834007aaae1523d0c.png

5aa711aa43528_Bund60m27-1.png.4f4e3a264c1d993e41d95bb435b42422.png

5aa711aa47a10_27-115m.png.d8fe55e23de1760d73ab723c7623f5af.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Price found R at 53, which was a swing high on the 15m I didn't mention yesterday. Then it broke below 20 and 06, didn't pullback to 06, instead made a LH at 03.

 

After this there was PSupport at 141.75 and support at 141.64, which was a level and ended up being the low of the day.

 

Tomorrows plan:

 

Long rejection of 141.37, from yesterdays daily analysis.

Long rejection of 141.64, if we fall below, short a pullback

Long Rejection of 141.85

 

Short rejection of 142.03

Short rejection of 142.11

Short Rejection of 142.20

5aa711aaca5af_29-1pre.png.2b0183b2541a188916b2e99bee2111cb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This morning was bad for me, I was to focused on following the plan, and lost sight of how choppy the market was, I started taking 2 losers, on one of them I didn't move my stop to breakeven, and after this I lost focus, I was angry and didn't realize how choppy the market was.

 

Price was paying no attention whatsoever to my levels, and that should've been a sign to stop me from trading, until the market picked a direction.

 

When the market is moving so sluggishly, making marginally HHs or LLs but not picking a direction, there is a lot of potential for account destruction. I am trying to see this as an experience that I can learn from, as opposed to a failure.

 

In order to avoid getting caught in this sort of conditions again, I am including a "choppiness" in my 2 hourly conditions assessment, if there are no trends in the market, there is no point in trading it.

30-1.thumb.png.fe96c849c89ee591648063a91ca83ff9.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tomorrow's Plan:

 

Long on a rejection of A

Short Rejection of B

Short Rejection of C

Short Rejection of D

 

Long rejection of E

Long Rejection of F

 

Are you only trading REVs?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When prices reach your levels, do you look for actionable patterns (DB, DT, HL, LH, Hinges and SBs?

 

I have found that looking for these kind of patterns on the tick chart when price reaches S/R helps me avoid some of the chop.

 

I have not tested that extensively, but for example, when approaching R a DT followed by a break of DL increases the probability of success, besides, entering in the tick gives you razor thin stops. The problem I am dealing with now is how to get out of the tick and manage the trade following longer term waves.

 

Just my 2 cents.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Hello citizens of the U.S. The hundred year trade war has leaked over into a trading war. Your equity holdings are under attack by huge sovereign funds shorting relentlessly... running basically the opposite of  PPT operations.  As an American you are blessed to be totally responsible for your own assets - the govt won’t and can’t take care of you, your lame ass whuss ‘retail’ fund managers go catatonic  and can't / won’t help you, etc etc.... If you’re going to hold your positions, it’s on you to hedge your holdings.   Don’t blame Trump, don’t blame the system, don’t even blame the ‘enemies’ - ie don’t blame period.  Just occupy the freedom and responsibility you have and act.  The only mistake ‘Trump’ made so far was not to warn you more explicitly and remind you of your options to hedge weeks ago.   FWIW when Trump got elected... I also failed to explicitly remind you... just sayin’
    • Date: 7th April 2025.   Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.   Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.   Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.   Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.           South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.   Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.   US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open   US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.   Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.   German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions   German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.   Eurozone Growth at Risk   Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.   Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.   UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow   In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.   Wall Street Braces for Recession   Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.   Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen   The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.   Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.   In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.   Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.   Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.           Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns   Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.   Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’   OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike   Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.   Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock watch, good buying (+313%) toi hold onto the 173.32 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.