Tupapa's Log

[tupapa 10]

Todays morning I didn't take that triple top because it didn't happen at a level.

 

I took a long after a LH at 92 which didnt have enough confirmation.

 

In the afternoon I took some good trades after the climax, but over-traded towards the end becasue I was nackered and lost most of my profits.

 

 

Tomorrows plan:

 

at A look for a short or longs if we break above.

 

at B look for a short

 

At C look for a long if we reject or a short if we break below.

 

At D look for a long

 

at E and F look for longs.

[tupapa 10]

Today was bad trading, I didn;t short 70 because the rejection as only visible on the tick chart and I prefer to wait for a LH on the 1m chart, it all went downhill from then, as I tried to buy it repeatedly, except for, of course, at the low.

 

At 36 at had my VPOC and perceived the reversal but wasn't agressive enough to get in.

 

Tomorrows Plan

 

At A look for a short

 

At B look for a short or long if we break above

 

At C look for a long or short if break below

 

At D look for a long

[tupapa 10]

Today I traded well but could've made much more If I hadn't become complacent once I reached my daily goal. I was aware of the consolidations but didn't trade them as I was happy with my profit, there were several retracements where I could've got long but chose not to, I still can't focus on the plan and forget about the P&L this is the mindset that I need to develop to become a professional trader.

 

Tomorrows Plan:

 

At A look for a short or longs if we BReak

 

At B look for a long

 

At C look for a long or short if we break below.

 

At D and E look for longs.

 

Above A 145.23 is the bid level to look for a short or a long if we break above.

[tupapa 10]

Today I traded well again, but like yesterday, I reached my goal and wasn't as aggressive. My room for improvement of today's trading is:

 

 

1- Didn't trade because minor figures were coming out, this is not an excuse, as figures tend to push price towards the line of least resistance.

 

2- Took profits to soon in some trades, taking 1 lot out to make the trade "risk free". This could be a dangerous habit as I need to squeeze my winners, in order to make good money.

 

3- Hesitated geting into retracements that are part of my plan.

 

More stuff to work on and improve..

 

 

Tomorrows plan:

 

B and C are minor levels but they could provide some S/R

 

A is the main level to look for a short or longs if we stay above.

 

D is a long on a bounce or short if we break below

E and F could be good levels for a long.

 

The Bund was extremely strong yesterday and today and there aren't any significant levels above this. 146.19 is something I found on forexpros but don't know how reliable it might be.. it will probably be one of those days where S/R is improvised.

[tupapa 10]

Today I missed some good reversals of S/R because I wasn't at my desk in the morning, I also bailed out of positions that were part of the plan, which was a terrible idea. I believe my problem is that I need to distinguish between scalps, where I find my way into the trade using the price action, and S/R trades, which I just have to hold whatever happens, I need to overcome my fear of losing.

 

Next week I am adding a new column to my spreadsheet which I must tick if it is a trade2hold. If this is the case, I am not allowed to exit unless my stop gets hit.

 

I will also use my positive self-talk to keep me in the trade.

 

Another problem was using tight stops, this I am also considering including a column I must tick, because S/R trades require wider stops than price action scalps, based on tape reading.

 

I lost a lot of money on NFP, becasue I followed on the tick chart, this has happened before and in the future, I must always rely on the 1m chart, the tick chart is suicidal on a figure like the NFP, after it was released, I got in at the climax, but didn;t hold it for long enough, so all in all a very bad day, and poor performance from my part.

 

Mondays plan should be pretty obvious:

 

At A look for a short or long if we Bout.

 

At B look for a short

 

At C look for a long or short if we Break and can't get above

 

At D look for a long and short if we don't hold.

[tupapa 10]

This is my performance review for the week, I’m not sure if anyone is reading this but if you are have any suggestions or comments on my trading and performance and how to improve it, I would really appreciate this! If you are interested in my trading methodology, I will be more than happy to answer any questions, regarding entries and my trading plan, which as you can see, is extremely simple.

 

Moving on to the performance side of things, there are 2 areas that I need to work on, the technical and the emotional. They are both equally important if I am to master this, and it requires I take a deep look into my trading, scrutinizing every mistake, what triggers a string of losing trades, what causes me to leave money on the table, etc…

 

Anyway, it is all personal stuff but maybe others can relate with it or even learn something about their own trading, I certainly find it is the only way to improve.

 

Weekly performance review:

Monday: My plan was to short a rejection of D, price made a triple top here but I didn’t take it, because it was 4 ticks above my level. The market doesn’t care whether I have line at 143.00 or 143.4, it is an area, and a triple top is enough of a sign to enter a short.

 

Tuesday- I didn’t short 72 because the rejection was quick on a ick chart, instead I gave to much importance to the fact that price was holding above A, which according to my plan called for a long. When I lost this trade, I started trading against the trend, which is one of my behavioural patterns, wanting revenge. Then I watched the reversal pattern at 38, but at this point I was angry and simply wasn’t aggressive enough getting in, missing the whole move, another behavioural pattern. After this, I was pissed off again because I missed the move, and started shorting, once more, against the trend, which resulted in a losing day.

 

Wednesday- I moved to the March contract, hence the change in levels, but price structure and S/R obviously, still apply. I traded well Wednesday, started by shorting according to plan, and then I bought, when price was holding above my level. I could’ve held to my position for much longer, had I respected Dbs TLine scale out strategy. This day was a lovely trend day, with one consolidation after another, I didn’t trade much because I reached my daily target pretty fast, in the future I should keep trading regardless of my P&L, this is the goal.

 

I spotted a new reversal pattern, which forms when the upwaves have no material progress, buyers are exhausted and a short should be initiated, anticipating a wave in the opposite direction. This same pattern took place on Thursday.

 

Thursday- Traded well at the beginning, with a nice short triggered by yesterday’s pattern. I spotted the reversal around 10:am an it was according to plan, but I didn’t get into the trade because of excuses not to take the risk, such as news coming out. I spotted some incredible entry opportunities that followed the plan, but I didn’t take them due to the excuse of the news or time of the day. When I finally got in on a retracement, above the high of the range, I simply took profits to soon, way to soon…

 

Friday- I missed the best reversals of my levels because I wasn’t at my desk in the morning. I had a good entry but didn’t hold for long enough. When NFP was released, it all fucked up ad I focused way to much on the tick chart, I need to use the 1m chart on news releases, the tick chart I find overwhelming and it is much easier to spot the climax and re-test, and figure out the line of least resistance.

 

The biggest issue here, was holding to my trades once the line of least resistance had been established, the target for trades 9 and 10 was always the top of the range but I just didn’t hold to them. This could’ve been because I’d taken such a beaten on NFP and lost all my profits, either way, I need to change this and hold on to good entries until my stop or target is hit.

 

Once I’d left so much money on the table, I tried shorting with no success, it felt bad being so controlled in the morning and then losing it on 1 bloody news release.

 

Technical Errors

 

1. 1- Not taking a reversal that was part of the plan, because it took place above my level, even though it was a blatant triple top (Monday)
   
2. 2- Focusing too much on a level, ignoring the rest. On Tuesday I didn’t short 72 but went long 63 because I was convinced it was a more important level. This may’ve been the case, but the price action wasn’t telling me buyers were in control, and there was no compelling reason to go long here.
   

 

Emotional Errors

1. 1- Not holding to trades for long enough, not using the management strategy to scale out and taking profits due to fear of losing some of the gains.
   
2. 2- Taking 1 lot out to make the trade risk free, because of fear of taking a loser.
   
3. 3- Looking for an excuse not to take a trade and assume the risk, such as “There is a news release soon”, “Its lunch time, the algos are going to fuck everyone over”, “there will be a shakeout before this thing moves”.
   
4. 4- Perceiving a reversal very clearly, but not being aggressive enough getting it, because I have taking a few losers trying to pick a bottom, and miss the entire move.
   
5. 5- Missing a reversal that I spot in real time, and then revenge trading against it, irrationally.
   
6. 6- Taking an excellent setup, but getting out when price moves 1 or 2 ticks against me, due to fear of taking a loser.
   
7. 7- Using a tight stop and getting shaken out unnecessarily.
   
8. 8- Reaching my daily profit target and becoming complacent, procrastinating instead of looking for more good trades.
   

 

I am a seriously fucked up individual ! Lets hope I can work through most of these without having to visit a shrink..

 

It is not at all bad by the way, and I feel like I am much more aware of my self and much more controlled when I trade now, I make fewer mistakes and fewer revenge trades and I hardly ever over-trade, my long term goal, is to have complete confidence in my ability to put on a trade and manage it in the most effective way, with no emotional input. This is how I intend to improve next week and over the next few weeks:

 

• 1- On closing a trade before my stop gets hit and not managing it adequately, I will use my positive self-talk, that says something like, “Don’t worry mate, this is a perfectly legit trade, it is part of the plan so there is nothing that can possibly go wrong with it, if price hits my stop, I will still be proud and happy that I took it when the day is over”.
  
• 2- More on the stop placement, I have a new column in my spread sheet, that says, is this a trade2 hold, if I tick yes, I must place the stop and let the trade develop.
  
• 3- On having a tight stop, I am also including a column that I must tick, saying if it is a wide or a tight stop trade.
  
• 4- On looking for excuses not to take a trade or perceiving a reversal and not getting in because I’ve taken a few losers, I will also use the self-talk described above.
  
• 5- Finally, on reaching my daily target and becoming complacent, maybe I need a larger target, such as 50 instead of 40 ticks. Also, I might include a limit on the amount of profits I am willing to give away before I stop for the day.
  
• This is all work in progress, so I will try to apply these techniques next week, let’s see how it goes and hopefully I will slowly improve my trading process, until I reach my goal.
  

[tupapa 10]

Today's trading went downhill since I missed the move at the open, went short instead of long at the rev.

 

Tomorrow I will pay attention to the following levels:

 

At A I will short a rejection, I will also keep an eye for 97, which is the VPOc for that range.

 

At B I will short a rejection, or look for longs if we hold above.

 

At C I will short a rejection.

 

At E I will go long on a rejection or short if we break and can't hold below.

 

At F I will go long on a rejectio, if we break below this, I will keep an eye for price at G and H, but the main support is 14.

[tupapa 10]

Tomorrows plan:

 

At A look for longs or shorts if we break below.

 

At B look for a short on a rejection.

 

At C, look for short on a rejection or long if we break and hold above.

 

At D monitor price for a potential short, although I am hesitant of the VPOCs reliability as S/R

 

At E look to short a rejection or longs if we break and hold above.

[tupapa 10]

I didn't have time to comments on my trading at the office but theres a few things that are worth pointing out:

 

Started well, shorting according to plan and it was hard to hold for more than I did, I didn't take 1 lot out at the first support, which would've increased my profit.

 

Before Zew, I went long and this was very risky, the sim stoped out at 57, but a real fill would've really fucked me over.. This is something to bear in mind in the future, before an important figure such as Zew, it is probably wiser to be flat...

 

After this a few scalps playing the momentum but very mediocre trading in general. And at 13:00 finally, price looks like it might be testing my resistance level at 54, but it can't get above 50, where we have some singleprints, it reverses at 50 and I miss out on the entire move. This is something else to include in my rules, if price can't get to resistance, a short is legit since it reinforces the weakness.

 

At 14:00 another missed short because I wasn't willing to take the risk, was thinking it was best not to trade before the US opened and best to trade at the extreme, just wasn't willing to take the risk.

 

Then at 15:00 a decent long as bids where holding but again I got out before my stop was hit, I then got in again which is good, but only took 1 lot out at 10 ticks and 1 at BE. THen I got in at the Dbottom but was to tired and not feeling up for it so took 2 ticks, terrible risk reward...

 

 

Mistakes:

 

1- Not taking a trade because it reversed before my resistance level.

 

2- Not letting price hit my stop or prove me right.

 

3- Not using the management strategy in the right way, Taking the first lot out at resistance and the second scale it out.

 

4- Not taking a trade because the US was about to open.

[tupapa 10]

Tomorrows main levels are 144.87 and 145.54 a rejection of either of them will trigger an entry and so will a move through one of them, and a failure to come above.

 

At 145.05 I will go long if we hold above, and look to get short if we break below and can't get above

 

At 145.34, I will go short if reject, I will also go long if we hold above, and lookout for a test of 145.54

 

Today's major problems were not holding to the winners for long enough, and trading counter trend once the TL was broken. Tomorrow, I will write a new plan midday, because I don't think one plan for the previous day isn't enough to trade throughout a day.

[tupapa 10]

A recap on todays plan, including last nights action:

 

At 144.85- Long or short if we break below

 

At 145.04- Long if we hold above, short if we reject.

 

At 145.23- Short on rejection-- Monitor price at .85 or long if we break and hold above.

 

At 145.34, shoprt if we reject, long if we hold above.

 

At 145.54, Short if we reject, long if we break above.

 

I will update the plan at mid day.

[tupapa 10]

Update on the Bund, the levels worked perfectly but I was hesitant to short 04s because it looked like good support at 95.

 

If we break above 04, I will go long if we hold.

 

If we reject 04s again I will short.

 

Below 95 is the lof ow the day at 74, and if this doesn't hold there is support at 50.

[tupapa 10]

Happy new year everyone! After a much needed holiday, I am back with the Bund, battling to gain that desired consistency.

 

Over the past 4 months, I have noticed some progress, which has resulted on a P&l which has been green most days, although nothing extraordinary in terms of profits. I also have some small losing days and, what is most worrying, some large down days (+60 ticks) which wipe out all my gains. This is mainly due to a loss of control from my part, over-trading and other issues that I've mentioned in previous posts.

 

In order to improve my performance, I am including 2 important rules in my plan.

 

1- Do not attempt to make the same trade idea more than twice, 2 losers is enough to try an idea and after this it leads to a loss of control and anger. It could be that the market is behaving erratically, or it could be that I am completely out of sync with the market; either way, I should not be trading.

 

2- Write a new "trading in foresight plan" in the afternoon. In this way, I plan to separate the morning and afternoon session into 2 completely different days, since often, the plan I wrote in the morning no longer applies in the afternoon.

 

So this, coupled with a strong discipline from my side, will hopefully lead to consistent profitable trading.

[tupapa 10]

Today I haven't been trading from work, since I have the shits, and decided, for the good of the office and my dignity, to stay at home..

 

 

I posted my plan in the foresight thread

 

This is how price reacted to my levels throughout the morning, I am showing rejection on the tick chart, since I am looking to define something clearly on this bar interval, and use the 1m chart for intra-day structure.

[tupapa 10]

I am attaching this mornings analysis and the plan for the afternoon. NFP is released in 10 min so I am expecting a large move, after the initial move, I will wait for the climax and enter on the retest. THe following are my areas of interest:

 

At A price was rejected agressively, so I will go long on a rejection.

 

At B Price has currently reversed, but I don't enter possitions pre NFP. If price is rejected again I will short.

 

At C I will short a rejection, if we break and hold above I will go long, ditto for E

 

Below A I have support at 20, if price rejects this level I will go long. If price breaks below A and can't hold, I will short.

[tupapa 10]

In the afternoon I once again second guessed on the rejecftion of 142.87, and after this I didn't get a clear entry.

 

The resistance at 15 wasn't taken because my level was at 19, but as I've previously told myself, I should take this since it is close enough top R and the rejection is clear.

 

A very frustrating day for me, since I spotted each of the ebs of entries, but didn't act on them and hesitated... For next week my goal is to stay disciplined, but use possitive self talk to get into the trades.

[tupapa 10]

Using the 5sec chart certainly helps seing the tests and rejections more clearly, and I want tos tart focusing on it for entry points. I will also upload entries here, and try to find 5sec patterns that I can exploit consistently.

 

The 1st chart is a clear rejection, followed by a LH. I didn't take it a time because of emotional issues and I wasn't sure if it was enough of a rejection, but this is a valid entry.

 

The second chart is a test of R, from the downside, I didn't take this because there was no re-test, and I don't know if I could've been more aggressive on this.

 

The third chart is below the OL, but the reversal is clear since buyers manage to make a HH and a HL

 

The fourth chart is a reversal of the low of the day. I took a failed entry here because I didn't wait for the re-test, which took place in the next entry. In all fairness, this isn't a good entry, since by this point we are below Resistance, below the Opening Low and I should've been looking for shorts.

 

 

At NFP, there was a initial test of 142.86 which resulted on a LH, I didn't take this because I was waiting for the re-test and when it took place, I was to slow to get in.

 

 

All this was perceived in real-time, except for the 3d entry, which is something I will pay more attention to, a HH and Hl withing support tolerance, is a clear sign.

 

Next week I hope to be more confident, pulling the trigger when I see some of these triggers.

[tupapa 10]

Today was one of my best performances so far, I followed my plan with absolute discipline and held to my trades patiently.

 

There is still room for improvement in terms of entering a reversal at Virgin support, which still causes hesitation in me. I also missed an entry at the Opening Low which was perfectly legit, because I didn't have a level there.

 

Tomorrows plan:

 

At A short a rejection or long if we break above on a re-test. Above this wachout for G and H for potential targets and reversal levels

 

Lookout for B, although I am not sure of its importance, since traders didn't really react to it today, it is the VPoc of the current range so something to bare in mind.

 

At C go long on a rejection, if we break below and there is no reversal at D, look to short a pullback.

 

At E go long on a rejection, if we break below and can't hold,. short a pullback. Be low this I will wach out for F, and specialy 142.00, which is a major level on the daily.

[tupapa 10]

Afternoon Plan:

 

Price is now around 143.30 this could be a nice short on a rejection.

 

Above this 143.42 is a key level to look for a reversal.

 

Price Broke above 143.20 so this could act as support.

 

Below this we have the low of the dat at 143.01 and 142.96

[tupapa 10]

Tomorrows Levels for the Open:

 

At 143.51 Short a rejection, above this look to go long if we break above and hold above.

 

 

At 143.39 go long on a rejection, below this look for shorts on a re-test.

 

After I have initiated one of the previous trades, I will monitor price at the S/R levels on the chart, to judge whether to hold or reverse.

[tupapa 10]

Today I failed to follow the plan, missing the first short, made me anger and pushed me into an emotional spiral that resulted in many losing trades.

 

Tomorrow my only objective is to follow the plan (I know this should always the case, but its worth reminding myself)

 

The plan is:

 

At A short a rejection, if we break above go long if we hold above 80

 

At B go long on a rejection, if we break below short a pullback.

 

At C go long on a rejection, if we break below short a pullback

 

 

Same for the rest of the levels

[tupapa 10]

Tomorrows Plan:

 

Below 142.53 I am looking at the macro at the following levels:

 

142.00 141.75, 141.5

 

Above 142.53, the S/R from todays session apply.

[tupapa 10]

So far I have followed the plan which is a great thing, although it may need some changes in the future.

 

For the afternoon, the same level apply, and I am including 66, which has actted as Support over the past hour and is also the IBH.

 

So, for this afternoon:

 

Short a rejection of 74.

 

Short a rejjection of 66

 

Long on a rejection of 43.

 

Long on a rejection of the low of the day at 21

[tupapa 10]

I am posting yesterdays chart and todays:

 

Yesterday I lost control of my trading.

 

I started on following the plan, but I hesitated and got in and out of the short at 53, losing a lot, which made me mad at myself.

 

This had a negative effect, and created a vicious cycle were I wouldn't hold to my winners, I would scratch the best trades and get frustrated, which in turn made me take stupid trades. And it all was due to my negative self talk, and not being able to regain focus on the enxt quality opportunity.

 

 

Today my focus changed completely, and the only thing that mattered was that I followed the plan, placed a stop and let each trade develop. I started of with a loser but I was fine, because I'd follow my plan and my self talk was reassuring.

 

Instead of viewing the possibility of losing as failure, I was viewing it as an opportunity to learn about the market and improve my trading decisions. As long as I stuck to the plan I was fine, and I did (for the most) which resulted in a profit.

 

 

It is the first time I focus on my self-talk and next week I plan to have the same mentality as today:

 

1- Focus solely on trades I plan.

 

2- Place the stop and let it develop.

 

There is a lot of room for improvement in the following areas:

 

1- I went short against the trend a few times.

 

2- I took 1 lot out to soon, just because price was "losing momentum"

 

3- I didn't take 2 entries that were part of the plan, and I took some trades against the trend.

 

 

This trade reminds me loads of the Trading oil example in the wyckoff forum.

 

The signs that the trend is over are the same:

 

1- Double bottom and break of Trendline at 7:00

2-Double top and break of trendline at 12:00

3-Double bottom and break of trendline at 14:30

 

 

These are the key signals that I need to incorporate into my plan and the best entries occur at the extremes.

 

The 12:00 Dtop took place at Resistance, so it is a no brainer.

 

The Double bottom at 14:00 doesn't take place at support, but there is an obvious climax and re-test, and this is a setup that should be taken every time.

[tupapa 10]

Today I missed first long of the plan, because I was preapring my day and also the first short, because I had my level at 74 and not 78.

 

Missing trades causes frustration and fear, and this leads to making mistake such as 1,2,3,4,5 , where I dont have the discipline to place my stop and let the trade develop.

 

Tomorrow it is vital that I start the day by following the plan, which is:

 

At C (94-90) go short, if we break above go long and lookout for D and E

 

At B go long and lookout for C, if we break below go short on a pullback.

 

At A go long on a rejection or short if we break below on the pullback, same for F and G