Charts.

[TheDude 10]

oh there is still a good amount of skill in operating an order - being able to read the ebb and flow of the market. They have the advantage of only having to go one way, not worry about stops, and to follow instructions - they have the disadvantage of usually having to follow the instructions, put up with the sales guys, or PM, beat vwap (or other measure) ensuring they get filled, and usually managing other orders - eg; what happens when you have a large order to sell on a screaming rally day as well as large orders to buy - do you favour one or the other? It is a different skill set.

The difference for them is that the next day they wander in and sit down and get a new set of orders - like analysts - the risk is transferred to another person who actually does the trade.

 

Totally agree!

 

Lets remember, sometimes these guys get laid off, venture in to our neck of the woods and find out it aint so easy after all!!

[TheDude 10]

I would say the real value is only trading when there is a reason to.

 

 

Well if a picture paints a thousand words, that sentence is worth a thousands CL lots!

[TheDude 10]

hmm what made me move to fx..well, there are less instruments to focus on, trading hours allow me to trade while i am at home (since i live in asia, i can trade during the london session without any distraction) and i can rely more on technicals (hard to manipulate compared to stocks)...

 

 

Interesting.

 

When I traded fx futures - that was one of my main reasons - the manipulation.

 

People say it's the biggest, most liquid market etc, but they forget the fact that the fx market exists so governments can control/exercise fiscal policy/manipulate. You get head wind of that (interest rate moves and so forth) and you have your trend which is kind of guaranteed for a good few months + giving swings etc.

 

Look at the Brazilian Real. Currently pegged to USD. That isnt going to last forever. I want to be there when they start thinking otherwise!

 

I guess the rules for stocks world wide are very much different. Because they are the staple of so many pension funds, 'manipulation' is seen as a bad thing. It affects Mr Main Street and his long term wealth in a brutally honest way.

 

If a CEO sells a bunch of stock before poor earnings or similar, hes in jail for insider trading. If a govt sell its own currency ahead of a rate announcement it's seen as a 'fiscal measure'. The fact that that it (may) devalues the entire countries stock market in real terms/notional value - and thus the pensions/savings is ignored.

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

hmm what made me move to fx..well, there are less instruments to focus on, trading hours allow me to trade while i am at home (since i live in asia, i can trade during the london session without any distraction) and i can rely more on technicals (hard to manipulate compared to stocks)...

 

Hi Obsidian,

 

I'm getting rather off topic but . . . do you ever trade the USD/JPY pair, and do you have any insights into its behaviour that you'd be prepared to share? Despite a few profitable swing trades off the top of a channel when I first started trading (more luck than skill), in testing I have never been able to find a single consistent way to extract profits from it - it somehow seems to behave completely unlike every other market.

 

Cheers,

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

good point - it raises another issue.

Humans are naturally good at seeing patterns and recognising, however when it comes to data and such, often those patterns have no real significance. (others may say this better)

 

When it comes to trading thats why often the visual is the road map and you have too see what happens when you get to certain points on the map.

 

Hi SIUYA,

 

You mentioned the difficulties of programming support and resistance. I'm assuming that Sierra Chart has something similar to the diagonal trendlines indicator below? Far from perfect, of course, but it can provide a good starting point, and lines can be removed with discretion. Let me know if not - I'll post the EL code and then you can get someone to re-program it for your platform.

 

BlueHorseshoe

[Obsidian 10]

Interesting.

 

When I traded fx futures - that was one of my main reasons - the manipulation.

 

People say it's the biggest, most liquid market etc, but they forget the fact that the fx market exists so governments can control/exercise fiscal policy/manipulate. You get head wind of that (interest rate moves and so forth) and you have your trend which is kind of guaranteed for a good few months + giving swings etc.

 

Look at the Brazilian Real. Currently pegged to USD. That isnt going to last forever. I want to be there when they start thinking otherwise!

 

I guess the rules for stocks world wide are very much different. Because they are the staple of so many pension funds, 'manipulation' is seen as a bad thing. It affects Mr Main Street and his long term wealth in a brutally honest way.

 

If a CEO sells a bunch of stock before poor earnings or similar, hes in jail for insider trading. If a govt sell its own currency ahead of a rate announcement it's seen as a 'fiscal measure'. The fact that that it (may) devalues the entire countries stock market in real terms/notional value - and thus the pensions/savings is ignored.

 

The manipulation is everywhere..but in fx, at least you are aware of it..centrals banks and their policies of course affect currency pairs..some can control it, EUR/CHF 1.20 floor for example...some just cant, USD/JPY for example...anyway, I think technical analysis works better when the volume (i.e. the number of participants) is real high..

[SIUYA 11]

Hi SIUYA,

 

You mentioned the difficulties of programming support and resistance. I'm assuming that Sierra Chart has something similar to the diagonal trendlines indicator below? Far from perfect, of course, but it can provide a good starting point, and lines can be removed with discretion. Let me know if not - I'll post the EL code and then you can get someone to re-program it for your platform.

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

thanks Blue - I have seen similar things before often called auto trend lines or similar.....I have never found them any use as I am more interested in horizontal lines. (price levels that show true support, resistance as opposed to my self imposed trend lines (no judgement on these)

(please feel free to post the EL code - I could read it and have a look)

 

The closest I use is the old Donchian channels (HHV and LLV) mainly as they give me clear levels - problems with these is they dont necessarily pick up the swing points I might deem as significant, and like MAs they converge on the areas of consolidation - where everything gets chopped up....usually I combine these with a swing count - that i can see.

Best I can get is manual support and resistance - which only becomes and issue when trying to automate things really - you still need to watch what happens when it gets there, and act accordingly. (Plus did you see what happened in the EUR this morning - eye curumba for slippage)

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

I am more interested in horizontal lines. (price levels that show true support, resistance as opposed to my self imposed trend lines (no judgement on these)

 

Did you mean something more like this?

 

BlueHorseshoe

[SIUYA 11]

Bluehorseshoe -- yes - my guess is that is much the same as a zig zag line study that sierra chart has. Thanks.

(only its written in C++)

if you have the code for the easy language it would be great i might be able to read it and modify it in - or find someone who can do it - might compare and contrast.

 

Problem with all these is that I still need to put the bias on.....

eg; this is compressing, that first LH was broken but that then becomes an alert as opposed to a trigger - lets see what happens in this pullback - is it fast, slow, does it immediately reject the low - was there an abc type swing in between, is it clean and smooth or is it climbing a wall of worry. (if its one, then where is it happening in the context of what has occured the last 5 days), is this the third attempt to have a go at this level, have each of the retracements prior to this been shorter than before. Given this, are they good odds to purchase on a pullback, and set the stop at the last swing low, or a fixed amount.....how do i go at it again if the stop is hit and immediately reverses - the computer thinks its a new low, I think its a screamer to happen as i first thought....

 

 

I may be complicating it a little but these are the things l look at and programming this - beyond my grade.

I have tried various combos -

eg; hh,hl,lh,ll - then buy break of last lh - you miss some of the great entries for a trend, and often get on at the end.

or ll,lh,hl, hh - sell break of hl - sometimes the better bet is to see that there has been prior overlap and that looking for a failure just after the hh is a great entry.

Cant get much real value out of it.

Or there is enough chop you still get chopped up,

Or there is not a great way to ensure that you get set at support - how hard do you chase - and if you miss it....was that the trade you needed to get.

(if you are always taking the breaks of HH, or LL, then its a breakout system)

 

Same old drill.