Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

TinGull

[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part I

Recommended Posts

Was just re-reading the section in MTMarkets about Trendline clusters. Than, searched on ‘VSA’ ‘trend clusters’ on the TL forum and jjthetrader’s post rating them highly from 10/27/07 was one of only two that came up.

Does anyone know how they are actually calculated?

What kind of constraints / qualifications are placed on historical trendlines etc in order for them to be used in the clusters?

Such as - must a trendline that is used be part of a historical parallel trendline channel or could a standalone trendline just from a set of tops (or bottoms) qualify, etc.? Thanks

 

Hey zdo, although not technically vsa I'll shed what light I can on clusters. They show up where multiple trend lines intersect. This will include trend lines from as far back as you have chart data.

This does also include highs and lows. I find them very effective and you can indeed watch price change it's behavior in them. If you would like to start another thread about this we could since we want to keep it strictly VSA here for the boys + girls who don't like Tguider.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This adds to the discussion from yesterday about VSA and actual trading.

 

Monad, you'll see that it's quite easy to identify the strength I have pointed out on the attached chart. That's what I mean about the easy part. Now that we identify strength, where would we enter. If we entered long after that first sign of strength and place out stop under the low then we would have got stopped out.

 

But if we get in quick and get out quick then we could trade each one of these signs of strength. So for me deciding how to trade VSA is the more difficult part of the equation.

 

This is where people's real-time trades come in handy, you see how they're actually applying it. I was hoping Sebastian might post trade entries and exits based on his VSA reading.

 

Entries might be too personal for people and they may want to keep it secret to. That's understandable, its their right. But even the guys at tguider after they promise you they'll teach you how to trade don't actually tell you when to get in. They teach you VSA and barely do a good job of that.

strength.thumb.jpg.6f60aa421493af9667735ef679ca5499.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This adds to the discussion from yesterday about VSA and actual trading.

 

Monad, you'll see that it's quite easy to identify the strength I have pointed out on the attached chart. That's what I mean about the easy part. Now that we identify strength, where would we enter. If we entered long after that first sign of strength and place out stop under the low then we would have got stopped out.

 

But if we get in quick and get out quick then we could trade each one of these signs of strength. So for me deciding how to trade VSA is the more difficult part of the equation.

 

This is where people's real-time trades come in handy, you see how they're actually applying it. I was hoping Sebastian might post trade entries and exits based on his VSA reading.

 

Entries might be too personal for people and they may want to keep it secret to. That's understandable, its their right. But even the guys at tguider after they promise you they'll teach you how to trade don't actually tell you when to get in. They teach you VSA and barely do a good job of that.

 

What you have just illustrated so graphically is I believe the first Post in any forums on the Internet regarding reading VSA and Trade Execution problem.:thumbs up:

As for TG , having seen countless seminars I wonder if any of them are able to trade consistently with this , for if trade execution etc was easy why would they bother to market it at all.

 

Think that is where those who actually trade on their VSA readings were to post the trades which worked and which were not productive, infact those which are not productive would be even more educational.

 

Great Job JJ and tawe:applaud:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JJ;

 

You chart tells me you have a grasp of some of the VSA concepts but lack a trading plan. That is not VSA's fault but yours.

 

You could only take signs of strength or weakness around certain Market Profile areas. You could take signs that occur on one timeframe and are simultaneously occurring on a higher timeframe. You could take signs that happen in conjunction with moving average crossovers.

 

In the book, Master the Markets, Tom Williams does give some ideas for entries. He talks about waiting for a down bar after a sign of strength. I would point out that after the first Sign of Strength, I would at least like to see either a Test or No Supply to use as entry. Ideally the test would be on a down bar, which would be consistent with Tom's view of entering long on down bars. (although I would wait for the confirmation which would be up). As the father of VSA, he doesn't need to wait for confirmation.

 

The question thus comes down to, Why would you enter after the first sign of strength?

 

Posting real-time charts without first having a trading plan wont answer that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What you have just illustrated so graphically is I believe the first Post in any forums on the Internet regarding reading VSA and Trade Execution problem.:thumbs up:

 

What has been illustrated is a lack of a trading plan. Nothing more.

 

Suppose somebody here had said once you see a wide spread bar on ultra high volume that closes down, you have demand entering the market. Then you should look for a Test of supply, which is a low volume sign, within the range of that high volume bar. Now you have an entry signal......

 

Oh, I think somebody has said that a time or two.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What has been illustrated is a lack of a trading plan. Nothing more.

 

Suppose somebody here had said once you see a wide spread bar on ultra high volume that closes down, you have demand entering the market. Then you should look for a Test of supply, which is a low volume sign, within the range of that high volume bar. Now you have an entry signal......

 

Oh, I think somebody has said that a time or two.

 

I totally agree, I have no trading plan regarding VSA. That's why I ask for real-time trades, to see what others are doing so I can form a plan and see how it's done. I'm looking for help setting up a plan and developing trading strategies around VSA principles.

 

But I like your ideas PP about mixing VSA up with TA to find entries.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not the best trade, but I hope you got what you wanted to see.

 

Some thoughts

 

* as previously stated, not the best time of day to trade. Forget 24 hr market sells picth about forex, trade during the London and New York sessions.

 

* While I don't use profit targets, initial price target was 1.4339. This would fill the gap created by the WRB.

 

* entry 1.4321 exit 1.4328 7pips 7*$10.00=$70.00 per contract

 

* price when as high as 1.4336. As I write this, however, price is at 1.4344.

5aa70e4e9ab5f_post1184.thumb.PNG.e06a5e6e53647e7298e38a922da0e0bc.PNG

Edited by mister ed
Add back chart

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last pic.

 

This just shows the how the move ended up as we appear to have hit a resistance level.

 

Better trade mgmt by me could of resulted in much more profit. (note to self: don't play that game.)

 

Again, I doubt anything was learned from this exercise. If so, let me know. As far as I am concerned, I could of just shown this chart and pointed out the entry and possible price target and the same ammount of information could of been passed on.

5aa70e4e9f4a3_post1185.thumb.PNG.3537eda993d73d5e638f87e91dbc1515.PNG

Edited by mister ed
Add back chart

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
.............But I like your ideas PP about mixing VSA up with TA to find entries.

 

No! LOL.

 

Look into using Market Profile levels or some form of "pivot" levels. Even fib levels will work. Then simply pay attention to the signs at these levels. The Smart money may or may not be using RSI or ADX, but they certainly know where the key price levels are based on High, Low, Pivot, POC, VAH,VAL and other price levels where volume was extreme.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay, I lied. This is the last pic.

 

Note that there was another entry/add on as we got a WRB and then a Test within the body. This Test is a Test in a Rising Market a true sign of strength.

 

The real lesson here is: Being right and sitting tight, that's where the money is.

5aa70e4ea427a_post1187.thumb.PNG.50ab26accde748a71be282a57c4676e7.PNG

Edited by mister ed
Add back chart

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

PP I am using floor pivots, MP pivots and a few other things as key levels for VSA setups. Could you elaborate on fibs and what level you look at if any one area. I'm familiar with the retrace/ambush fib trades which seem to have lots of eyes on the 50/62 fib area, is that a spot you might focus on?

 

Thanks for all your insight in this thread. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry for the off-topic post but I would like to correct a prior statement regarding the Best of Wyckoff conference in San Francisco next Fall that we are trying to get Williams to attend; Krueger WILL be speaking. Thanks.

 

nic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

mcichocki;

 

While I do believe in the "universality" of Fibs I do not use them. One main reason is that I do not know when to apply them. But I use the basic ones like: .320, .500, .620 and .780

 

I prefer the Market Profile "pivots".

 

The key is to focus on PRICE ACTION around the line. Here is where you want to see Tests, No Demands, No Supply, Stopping Volume, bottom reversals et all. And of course, WRBs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Last pic.

 

This just shows the how the move ended up as we appear to have hit a resistance level.

 

Better trade mgmt by me could of resulted in much more profit. (note to self: don't play that game.)

 

Again, I doubt anything was learned from this exercise. If so, let me know. As far as I am concerned, I could of just shown this chart and pointed out the entry and possible price target and the same ammount of information could of been passed on.

 

PP, that was very helpful, thankyou. What timeframe do you use?

 

You're right, the right edge doesn't need to be caputred as it happened, just an explanation after the fact about what you did in real-time.

 

I or we weren't refering to you about hindsight analysis. I was just requesting to see actual trades people took on a chart and not trades that people would have taken looking back.

 

I appreciate your teaching because seeing a trade like this does help to form a trading plan and create VSA setups. Obviously you have a strategy called 'the test' and you're good at executing it. What kind of volume to you like to see on the follow through bar after a test? Or do you just want it to be up?

 

What I like about your example is that you have those huge WRBs down which is basically the end of the push down but then price actually drifts lower than their lows before you find a suitable entry, almost like a false breakout to the downside (an upside down upthrust).

This is what tripped me up in the bootcamp. Tom says "if you see a bar like this get long". Then Todd of course says wait for confirmation. So I'm guessing account size plays a big role in entry.

 

I really have to switch over to candles. They're much more visual for when you're looking left for effort etc.

 

I know SoulTrader swears by MP numbers. Any idea if the MP numbers are correct at mypivots dot com?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The trouble with levels is there are so many of them! having said that I do look at them sometimes. We have floor pivot (with R1 R2 S1 S2) mid points of those if you wish. MP VAH PoC VAL along with recent few days MP values. Talking of past days there's yesterdays HLC and 3 day HL or weekly HL. Better not forget yesterdays mid point and FIB levels of its range. Of course you could also go exotic and have Ganns square of nine, Murray Math or even Pryapoint or Grid lines using square root of price. Of course if you leave lines on from previous swing highs/lows that generates a whole bunch too. If you add fib levels between those swings it gets ridiculous!

 

Phew there's an awful lot. there's something quite appealing about a plain price and volume chart. There's a real purity and simplicity. Sure the lines will give a heads up where something might happen but the price action with a bit of VSA will tell you what is happening.

 

This is certainly no criticism of key levels, clearly a lot of people watch them, its more to remind myself less is often best. A couple of lines to keep you orientated perhaps but its easy to overdo it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Over last few days quite a few posts have discussed the vagueness of entries when using VSA setups. At essence, I think the most recent posts about pivots, levels, etc. is part of that for most of us. Precision entries may be possible, but the basic premise of VSA (applying my current and limited level of understanding) is to gauge ‘professional’ accumulation (or distribution) and adjust one’s own inventories accordingly. This sort of implies that, like a professional, one would also not take on any inventory one is unable to carry without high levels of stress through short term adversity regardless of the time frame(s) used in the VSA setups. Currently, I’m looking at VSA setups / patterns as one item, then turning to wholly other techniques for entry triggers in (those diabolical) shorter time frames. In my experience, the probabilities of having the various sets of ‘professionals’ concurrently line up VSA setups for me at progressively lower time frames aren’t that great - so currently I am restricting my VSA work to one time frame.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes zdo, it seems that some professionals / 'smart money' have very deep pockets. They accumulate while prices are falling and are then able to stomach prices falling even further without getting out or too worried.

 

They know eventually prices will return back to their entry level and travel beyond to give them their desired profits.

 

Which is the message that PP rightly tries to put across, just because we see wide spread down bars on increasing volume it is not a signal to jump straight into the mkt and go long. There is momentum at play (as we know one of Newton's laws) and it takes a while to stop a falling mkt (in all timeframes) even with large scale buying / demand coming in.

 

Merry xmas everyone and hopefully this excellent VSA thread will continue in the New Year.

 

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Over last few days quite a few posts have discussed the vagueness of entries when using VSA setups. At essence, I think the most recent posts about pivots, levels, etc. is part of that for most of us. Precision entries may be possible, but the basic premise of VSA (applying my current and limited level of understanding) is to gauge ‘professional’ accumulation (or distribution) and adjust one’s own inventories accordingly. This sort of implies that, like a professional, one would also not take on any inventory one is unable to carry without high levels of stress through short term adversity regardless of the time frame(s) used in the VSA setups. Currently, I’m looking at VSA setups / patterns as one item, then turning to wholly other techniques for entry triggers in (those diabolical) shorter time frames. In my experience, the probabilities of having the various sets of ‘professionals’ concurrently line up VSA setups for me at progressively lower time frames aren’t that great - so currently I am restricting my VSA work to one time frame.

 

Yes zdo, it seems that some professionals / 'smart money' have very deep pockets. They accumulate while prices are falling and are then able to stomach prices falling even further without getting out or too worried.

 

They know eventually prices will return back to their entry level and travel beyond to give them their desired profits.

 

Which is the message that PP rightly tries to put across, just because we see wide spread down bars on increasing volume it is not a signal to jump straight into the mkt and go long. There is momentum at play (as we know one of Newton's laws) and it takes a while to stop a falling mkt (in all timeframes) even with large scale buying / demand coming in.

 

Merry xmas everyone and hopefully this excellent VSA thread will continue in the New Year.

 

.

 

Great point guys, VSA can be tough to pick bottoms or tops for me.

I'm realizing that it's more about seeing the trend change in it's early stages and if it keeps falling but big money keeps buying you know they are still bullish at the current price levels.

 

If you are big money you probably don't stress much if you know your sucking up the float and will soon be in control, but these things take time, often lots of time it seems.

 

Love this thread...keep teaching me guys. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, those points are some of the reasons I am moving towards a bigger time frame and bigger stops/targets with vsa. The higher time frames give me more time to see the bigger picture and also more time to plan the trade out. Watching for VSA in the stock market on 60 min daily and weekly charts, is also showing some great opportunities. Only problem is scanning for good candidates. :crap:

Either way, everyone have a happy holiday and a wonderful new year. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6yn24gy.jpg

 

SO some massive volume on the DJI today. Stalled at the trend line which is major resistance and I can sort of see a head n' shoulders maybe forming. Spread wise it seems pretty damn bullish to me though, but I'm curious what you guys see in todays action?

 

Thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This question of entry triggers with VSA is very interesting and it is something I believe Tom Williams has touched on. There is a video on the TG website of the first 5 minutes or so of a presentation by Williams, where he speaks about VSA (http://tradeguider.com/ss_tom2.asp)

 

He begins by talking about 2 forms of analysis, TA and FA, and then adds in the study of supply and demand as a 3rd way of analysing markets. He goes on to say, quote

 

"if you have what apparently ... appears to be say a buy signal in your technical analysis studies, if you can read supply and demand and a few bars back there's ... some indication of strength then this will back up your technical analysis as such, and I would have thought you would be almost I would say 100% accurate.. this will give you far more confidence to trade"

 

So it would appear that Williams is saying at this presentation that actual entry signals could be taken from some other method while using VSA to support that entry decision - i.e. take buy signals from technical analysis if there are indications of strength, derived from VSA, in the recent past and present.

 

Any thoughts on this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This question of entry triggers with VSA is very interesting and it is something I believe Tom Williams has touched on. There is a video on the TG website of the first 5 minutes or so of a presentation by Williams, where he speaks about VSA (http://tradeguider.com/ss_tom2.asp)

 

He begins by talking about 2 forms of analysis, TA and FA, and then adds in the study of supply and demand as a 3rd way of analysing markets. He goes on to say, quote

 

"if you have what apparently ... appears to be say a buy signal in your technical analysis studies, if you can read supply and demand and a few bars back there's ... some indication of strength then this will back up your technical analysis as such, and I would have thought you would be almost I would say 100% accurate.. this will give you far more confidence to trade"

 

So it would appear that Williams is saying at this presentation that actual entry signals could be taken from some other method while using VSA to support that entry decision - i.e. take buy signals from technical analysis if there are indications of strength, derived from VSA, in the recent past and present...

 

Yes and No.

 

I do not presume to know what is in Tom's mind, but there is a bit of placation going on here. Tom, the father of Volume Spread Analysis, does not like technical indicators. He has the ability to read a chart bar by bar and make uncannily accurate "predictions" of future price moves. As the rumors go, Tom was not very happy with TG when it first came out because; (1) there were too many signs of strength and weakness and (2) there were technical indicators included in the software. But Tom is a realist. He does understand that most traders into this area (trading) thru TA. This is because it is easier than reading a naked chart and more accessible.

 

As far as using them together, I believe, he would say if the TA doesn't match the VSA, always go with the VSA. Think about like this: Instead of going long because macd is diverging and there are signs of strength in the background; one should go long because there are signs of strength in the background and oh by the way macd is diverging. May seem like a subtle difference but they are actually worlds apart.

 

In the end, Tom does not trade your money. You have to do what works for you. It is about making money. If moving averages or CCI help you make money and make your VSA better, then use them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • lmfx just officially launched their own LMGX token, Im planning to grab a couple of hundred and maybe have the option to stake them. 
    • Date: 2nd April 2025.   Market on Edge: Tariff Announcement and Volatility Ahead!   The US economic and employment data continues to deteriorate with the job vacancies figures dropping to a 5-month low. In addition to this, the IMS Manufacturing PMI also fell below expectations. However, both the US Dollar and Gold declined simultaneously following the release of the two figures, an uncommon occurrence in the market. Traders expect a key factor to be today’s ‘liberation day’ where the US will impose tariffs on imports. USDJPY - Traders Await Tariff Confirmation! Traders looking to determine how the USDJPY will look today will find it difficult to determine until the US confirms its tariff plan. Today is the day when Trump previously stated he would finalize and announce his tariff plan. The administration has not yet released the policy, but investors expect it to be the most expansionary in a century. President Trump is due to speak at 20:00 GMT. On HFM's Calendar the speech is stated as "US Liberation Day Tariff Announcement". Currently, analysts are expecting Trump’s Tariff Plan to impose tariffs on the EU, chips and pharmaceuticals later today as well as reciprocal tariffs. Economists have a good idea of how these tariffs may take effect, but reciprocal tariffs are still unspecified. In addition to this, 25% tariffs on the car industry will start tomorrow. The tariffs on the foreign cars industry are a factor which will particularly impact Japan. Although, traders should note that this is what is expected and is not yet finalised. Last week, President Trump stated that he would implement retaliatory tariffs but allow exemptions for certain US trade partners. Treasury Secretary Mr Bessent and National Economic Council Director Mr Hassett suggested that the restrictions would primarily target 15 countries responsible for the bulk of the US trade deficit. However, yesterday, Trump contradicted these statements, asserting that additional duties would be imposed on any country that has implemented similar measures against US products. The day’s volatility will depend on which route the US administration takes. The harshness of the policy will influence both the Japanese Yen as well as the US Dollar.   USDJPY 5-Minute Chart   US Economic and Employment Data The JOLT Job Vacancies figure fell below expectations and is lower than the previous month’s figure. The JOLT Job Vacancies read 7.57 million whereas the average of the past 6 months is 7.78 million. The ISM Manufacturing Index also fell below the key level of 50.00 and was 5 points lower than what analysts were expecting. The data is negative for the US Dollar, particularly as the latest release applies more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, this is unlikely to happen if the trade policy ignites higher and stickier inflation. In the Bank of Japan’s Governor's latest speech, Mr Ueda said that the tariffs are likely to trigger higher inflation. USDJPY Technical Analysis Currently, the Japanese Yen Index is the worst performing of the day while the US Dollar Index is more or less unchanged. However, this is something traders will continue to monitor as the EU session starts. In the 2-hour timeframe, the USDJPY is trading at the neutral level below the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. The RSI and MACD is also at the neutral level meaning traders should be open to price movements in either direction. On the smaller timeframes, such as the 5-minute timeframe, there is a slight bias towards a bullish outcome. However, this is only likely if the latest bearish swing does not drop below the 200-Bar SMA.     The key resistant level can be seen at 150.262 and the support level at 149.115. Breakout levels are at 149.988 and 149.674. Key Takeaway Points: Job vacancies hit a five-month low, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions. Traders await confirmation on Trump’s tariff policy, which is expected to impact the EU, chips, pharmaceuticals, and foreign car industries. The severity of the tariffs will influence both the JPY and the USD, with traders waiting for final policy details. The Japanese Yen Index is the worst index of the day while the US Dollar Index is unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • HLF Herbalife stock, watch for a bull flag breakout above 9.02 at https://stockconsultant.com/?HLF
    • Date: 1st April 2025.   Will Gold’s Rally Hold Strong as New Trade Tariffs Take Effect Tomorrow?   Gold continues to increase in value for a sixth consecutive day and is trading more than 17% higher in 2025. Amid fear of higher inflation, a recession and the tariffs war escalating investors continue to invest into Gold pushing demand higher. The trade policy from April 2nd onwards continues to be a key factor for the whole market. Can Gold maintain its upward trend? Trade Policy From Tomorrow Onwards Starting as soon as tomorrow, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all passenger cars imported into the United States. While this White House policy is anticipated to negatively affect European industrial performance, it will also lead to higher transportation and maintenance costs for everyday American taxpayers. The negative impact expected on both the EU and US is one of the reasons investors continue to buy Gold. Additionally, last month, President Donald Trump announced reciprocal sanctions against any trade partners that impose import restrictions on US goods. Furthermore, tariffs on products from Canada and the EU could increase even more if they attempt to coordinate a response. Overall, investors continue to worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures, particularly from China, the Eurozone, and Japan. Any retaliation is likely to escalate the trade conflict and prompt another reaction from the US. Experts at Goldman Sachs and other investment banks warn that this will lead to rising inflation and unemployment. They also caution that it could effectively halt economic growth in the US.   XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart   The Weakness In The US Dollar Another factor which is allowing the price of XAUUSD to increase in value is the US Dollar which has been unable to maintain any bullish momentum. Despite last week’s Core PCE Price Index rising to its highest level since February 2024, the US Dollar has been unable to see any significant rise in value. Due to the US Dollar and Gold's inverse correlation, the price of Gold is benefiting from the Dollar weakness. Investors worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures from China, the Eurozone, and Japan, potentially escalating the conflict. Experts at The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. believe that such actions by the US administration will drive rising inflation and unemployment while effectively halting economic growth in the country. Can Gold Maintain Momentum? When it comes to technical analysis, the price of Gold is not trading at a price where oscillators are indicating the instrument is overbought. The Relative Strength Index currently trades at 68.88, outside of the overbought area, since Gold’s price fell 0.65% during this morning’s session. However, even with this decline, the price still remains 0.40% higher than the day’s open price. In terms of fundamental analysis, there continues to be plenty of factors indicating the price could continue to rise. However, the price movement of the week will also partially depend on the employment data from the US. The US is due to release the JOLTS Job Vacancies for February this afternoon, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change tomorrow, and the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate on Friday. If all data reads higher than expectations, investors may look to sell to lock in profits at the high price. Key Takeaway Points: Gold’s Rally Continues – Up 17% in 2025 as investors seek safety from inflation, recession fears, and trade tensions. Trade War Impact – New US tariffs and potential retaliation from China, the EU, and Japan drive uncertainty, boosting Gold demand. Weak US Dollar – The Dollar’s struggle supports Gold’s rise due to their inverse correlation. Gold’s Outlook – Uptrend may continue, but US jobs data could trigger profit-taking. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 31st March 2025.   Trump Confirms Tariffs on All Countries, Sending Stocks Lower.   The NASDAQ continues to trade lower due to the US confirming the latest tariffs will be on all countries. In addition to this, bearish volatility also is largely due to the higher inflation data from Friday. The NASDAQ declines to its lowest price since September 11th 2024. Core PCE Price Index - Inflation Increases Again! The PCE Price Index read 2.5% aligning with expert forecasts not triggering any alarm bells. However, the Core PCE Price Index rose from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM and from 2.7% to 2.8% YoY, signalling growing inflationary pressure. This increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period. The NASDAQ fell 2.60% due to the higher inflation reading which is known to pressure the stock market due to pressure on consumer demand and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently commented that tariffs could drive up inflation, though the long-term impact remains uncertain. She told journalists that a short-term spike is the most probable outcome but believes the current pause in monetary policy adjustments is appropriate given the prevailing uncertainties. Although, certain investment banks such as JP Morgan actually believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates. This is due to expectations that the economy will struggle under the new trade policy. For example, JP Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts but will quickly cut towards the end of 2025. Market Risk Appetite Takes a Hit! A big factor for the day is the drop in the risk appetite of investors. This can be seen from the VIX which is up almost 6%, Gold which is trading 1.30% higher and the Japanese Yen which is the day’s best performing currency. Most safe haven assets, bar the US Dollar, increase in value. It is also worth noting that all indices are decreasing in value during this morning's Asian session with the Nikkei225 and NASDAQ witnessing the strongest decline. Previously the stock market rose in value as investors heard rumours that tariffs would only be on certain countries. This bullish swing occurred between March 14th and 25th. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump indicated that the upcoming tariffs would apply to all countries, not just those with the largest trade imbalances with the US. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to obtain indications that sellers control the price action. The price opens on a bearish price gap measuring 0.30% and trades below all Moving Averages on all timeframes. The NASDAQ also trades below the VWAP and almost 100% of the most influential components (stocks) are declining in value.     The next significant support level is at $18,313, and the resistance level stands at $20,367.95. Key Takeaway Points: NASDAQ falls to its lowest since September 2024 as the US confirms tariffs on all countries, adding to inflation concerns. Core PCE inflation rises to 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, increasing the likelihood of prolonged high interest rates. Investor risk appetite drops as VIX jumps 6%, gold gains 1.3%, and safe-haven assets outperform. NASDAQ shows strong bearish momentum, trading below key technical levels with support at $18,313 and resistance at $20,367.95. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.