[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part I

[marketguy 11]

Sebastian,

I really enjoyed the audio/chart presentation. I deeply appreciate your generosity in teaching us.

 

I am a total beginner to VSA. Can you give suggestions on the best way to learn this work - including books, software and other educational material.

 

Thanks so much.

 

Bryan

[mister ed 10]

I like this method. Works well I think. Excellent Analysis.

 

What I find the most difficult about trading VSA real-time is trusting what I see. It's hard, psycologically, to short up bars after you've seen a rally. It's something that gets easier over time I'm sure.

 

Thanks for putting in the effort. We appreciate it.

 

JJ - If you see a rally, then up bars that suggest weakness is present, could you try dropping a time frame to see if those smaller time-frame bars are suggesting weakness as well? Or if they are suggesting strength is there follow-through on the strength - if not then its another sign of weakness?

[Tasuki 10]

Sebastian,

Thankyou for taking the time to create that audio/chart combination--it was incredibly helpful !!

You mentioned during that audio that Tom Williams has written a second book? I didn't catch its name. Where can we get it?

Thanks, Taz

[Seb Manby 11]

Sorry;

 

What i mean't was, do you prefer the audio or the text. The audio is easier for me.

 

Regards Sebastian.

[Soultrader 12]

ES analysis for wednesday 5th Dec 07, i have decided to record with voice and upload the files to a server that you can download, I suggest that you archive them for future refrence.

Audio link here http://www.megaupload.com/?d=ERS0UD6L

 

Tell me if you like this method.

 

Regards Sebastian

 

Thank you very much for the audio and charts Sebastian. It was very informative.

 

I have uploaded the audio clip into our server in case megaupload link dies out. If anyone is unable to download it, you can download it here.

[Anonymous 11]

Tricky market action here.

 

Ultimate lesson: as traders we need to remain flexible and not marry ourselves to a position. When the criteria for a contingency plan arise, we take advantage of it and don't focus on why the original analysis failed.

 

Let's focus on the Effort to Fall candle.

 

This candle is a WRB and thus creates a Support/Resistance zone. Within this zone, we would want to see a low volume signal as per usual. What happens is the market goes down on the next bar, but then proceeds to move up. Once price closes above the high of the Effort candle, we have No Result from an Effort to Fall. This is bullish. Now the market gives us what we want a No Supply sign within the body of a WRB (Effort Candle) and it makes sense. Clearly, the No Supply indication makes sense when taken in conjunction with no result from an effort to fall. More over, we have seen demand enter and take the market sideways.

 

But we soon are faced with a dark WRB that closes lower than the close of the No Supply candle. This is our contingency plan signal. Something has changed, or we were wrong from the get-go. Either way, be flexible. Be quick. Or be dead. Reverse position and surrender to the market. Let it take you where it wants to go, not where you think it should.

Edited March 29, 2008 by mister ed
Add back chart

[mister ed 10]

Sorry;

 

What i mean't was, do you prefer the audio or the text. The audio is easier for me.

 

Regards Sebastian.

 

Typing out the commentary, especially if you plan to do so each day, is too much - the audio, like you say, is much easier so I would vote for sticking with the audio. Anyone who prefers the text could take notes him or herself. Thanks very much for the commentary Sebastian, it is a great learning tool.

[ranj 10]

Hey Sebastian,

 

Thanks for the analysis. Do you mind explaining the difference between a hidden upthrust verse a regular upthrust. You make a mention of it in the audio clip, but don't go into real detail

[EyeQue 10]

Sebastian,

 

Thank you for the analysis. I enjoyed your audio/chart presentation…very informative.

 

Thanks again,

 

EyeQue

[jjthetrader 10]

JJ - If you see a rally, then up bars that suggest weakness is present, could you try dropping a time frame to see if those smaller time-frame bars are suggesting weakness as well? Or if they are suggesting strength is there follow-through on the strength - if not then its another sign of weakness?

 

Ya I do all that and make the call based on what I see. I just meant it seems counter intuitive when you first start trading with VSA.

cheers

[bertg 10]

 

Tell me if you like this method.

 

Regards Sebastian

 

Sebastian,

 

It's great. Thank you for your time.

 

In case you are interested, there is a screen recorder (voice included) that's only $39.95: Huelix Screenplay. I bought a license and love it. Doesn't have all the bells-and-whistles of Camtasia, but it's all you'd ever need your daily analysis purpose.

 

Regards,

Bert

[BlowFish 10]

 

Tell me if you like this method.

 

Regards Sebastian

 

Far superior as you can focus on the chart while listening. With text you have to scroll back and forth and it breaks the flow.

 

Thanks:applaud:

[thrunner 10]

Doesn't have all the bells-and-whistles of Camtasia

Thank you Sebastian for your analysis and Bertg for your suggestion. Sebastian's mp3 audio is fine, although it is perhaps too high a quality at 128kpbs. Camtasia, an older version 3 is available for free below. It is not pirated, just their way of getting you to try it. It allows for video and audio recording and good compression.

 

To register for a key:

http://www.techsmith.com/camtasia/pcpls.asp

 

To download:

http://download.techsmith.com/camtasiastudio/enu/312/camtasiaf.exe

 

BTW, Sebastian, one could resize the recording window in Camtasia so that one could not see some portions of one's screen (such as one's Reuteur's Navigator account number).

[Seb Manby 11]

Sebastian,

Thankyou for taking the time to create that audio/chart combination--it was incredibly helpful !!

You mentioned during that audio that Tom Williams has written a second book? I didn't catch its name. Where can we get it?

Thanks, Taz

 

 

Hi Tasuki;

Tom only has one book, and the name is ' the undeclared secrets'

 

Regards Sebastian

[MC 10]

Thank you Sebastian for your analysis and Bertg for your suggestion. Sebastian's mp3 audio is fine, although it is perhaps too high a quality at 128kpbs. Camtasia, an older version 3 is available for free below. It is not pirated, just their way of getting you to try it. It allows for video and audio recording and good compression.

 

To register for a key:

http://www.techsmith.com/camtasia/pcpls.asp

 

To download:

http://download.techsmith.com/camtasiastudio/enu/312/camtasiaf.exe

 

BTW, Sebastian, one could resize the recording window in Camtasia so that one could not see some portions of one's screen (such as one's Reuteur's Navigator account number).

 

Sweeeeet. Thanks for the link/software.

[Anonymous 11]

Hi Tasuki;

Tom only has one book, and the name is ' the undeclared secrets'

 

Regards Sebastian

 

 

Play fair Sebastian.

 

The name of the book is Master the Markets (now). I know you had/have a site that sold the book under the original title, but the most updated book without many of the typos is sold exclusively by TG.

 

Both of us have issues with TG, but anybody looking to buy the book should be told to start there.

[MC 10]

Play fair Sebastian.

 

The name of the book is Master the Markets (now). I know you had/have a site that sold the book under the original title, but the most updated book without many of the typos is sold exclusively by TG.

 

Both of us have issues with TG, but anybody looking to buy the book should be told to start there.

 

Yep I have both...the original has hard to read charts and TONS of typos.

It's still excellent raw data though, honestly I've yet to read the new edition beyond a glance to see the corrections and better charts.

 

Now I just want the boot camp cd to complete my collection.

[Seb Manby 11]

Yep I have both...the original has hard to read charts and TONS of typos.

It's still excellent raw data though, honestly I've yet to read the new edition beyond a glance to see the corrections and better charts.

 

Now I just want the boot camp cd to complete my collection.

 

 

I have edited the book and removed the typos, I am not expecting anyone to buy anything, I was making a refrence to Tom's book, for those of you who have it, not trying to sell anyone anything, so that you coud look up any indicators I was refrencing.

 

regards Sebastian

[Seb Manby 11]

Sebastian,

 

It's great. Thank you for your time.

 

In case you are interested, there is a screen recorder (voice included) that's only $39.95: Huelix Screenplay. I bought a license and love it. Doesn't have all the bells-and-whistles of Camtasia, but it's all you'd ever need your daily analysis purpose.

 

Regards,

Bert

 

 

does not work with vista

[MC 10]

I have edited the book and removed the typos, I am not expecting anyone to buy anything, I was making a refrence to Tom's book, for those of you who have it, not trying to sell anyone anything, so that you coud look up any indicators I was refrencing.

 

regards Sebastian

 

I didn't mean it in a negative way, sorry if it came across that way.

Honestly the typos kept me really focusing cause as I was reading I was looking for errors at the same time. On perfect books I sometimes drift through and don't focus or retain like I intend to. :o

 

I appreciate the work you're doing.

[BlowFish 10]

Yeah the typos actually helped. You thought hang on that's not right and would actually think about it then correct in the margin. A hidden test.

 

Actually it was only a couple of charts with a letter missing and I think there where also a the odd instance of accumulation switched with distribution.

 

Cheers.

[Primavera 10]

ES analysis for wednesday 5th Dec 07, i have decided to record with voice and upload the files to a server that you can download, I suggest that you archive them for future refrence.

Audio link here http://www.megaupload.com/?d=ERS0UD6L

 

Tell me if you like this method.

 

Regards Sebastian

Sebastian

 

That was a very interesting analysis. Thank you for sharing it with us. The audio version is far preferable, because it allows us to constantly watch the chart during the analysis, which is a lot easier than flipping between 2 screens. It makes the flow of the action easier to experience.

 

Primavera

[jjthetrader 10]

Can anyone shine some light onto why I might have misread (VSA wise) this trade I took yesterday?

 

We had a nice run up (this in on the ES), got an ultra High Volume Up bar followed by an upthrust on huge volume as well.

We broke the low of the upthrust so I started watching for a short entry. Once I saw that no demand I took it.

The next bar moved up against me on increasing volume to close near the top so I put in a break even order and got out on the bar following that.

 

In hindsight you could say I was clearly wrong but in real-time it looked so right. Any ideas about what I may have missed? Was it the no Supply bar 5 bars back from the no demad that signaled higher prices?

 

Thanks

[gassah 10]

I think you can increase your odds by trading with the trend.

 

nic

[monad 10]

Can anyone shine some light onto why I might have misread (VSA wise) this trade I took yesterday?

 

We had a nice run up (this in on the ES), got an ultra High Volume Up bar followed by an upthrust on huge volume as well.

We broke the low of the upthrust so I started watching for a short entry. Once I saw that no demand I took it.

The next bar moved up against me on increasing volume to close near the top so I put in a break even order and got out on the bar following that.

 

In hindsight you could say I was clearly wrong but in real-time it looked so right. Any ideas about what I may have missed? Was it the no Supply bar 5 bars back from the no demad that signaled higher prices?

 

Thanks

 

From what I have read so far on this thread , you were not wrong, somebody before has pointed out the same scenario in realtime and also there is a post with a question regarding this i.e realtime trading, sadly not much response from the VSA experts.

I believe it was stated that the buying pressure on higher time frame was greater than the supply on the lower time frame. You read it right, although VSA appears to be answer to all our prayers, and it is an useful tool no doubt, but basically it boils down to probability.

When reading from the middle of the chart, it is relatively easy to account for every bar and why this one was supply and this one was demand etc;)