[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part I

[tawe trader 10]

Sebastian,

Have studied the ES charts, but am now confused as to how to implement the info. in trading this in realtime.

 

Ah monad, it's the million dollar question...........

 

I am not trying to take anything away from Sebastian as I am very impressed by his commentary and I would be chuffed to be able to read a chart half as well as him one day, BUT there is a big difference in being able to understand VSA and then trading (successfully) in realtime on the hard right edge of the chart !

 

If you can grasp the concept of VSA then perhaps you can build your own trading method around it, with the timeframes that suit you and your trading account.

 

The chap who introduced me to VSA back in the summer used the FTSE daily chart as his trend direction tool, then he would drop down to 30 min bars for his VSA entry signal. It seemed to work for him and he wasn't glued to the screen all day. He would return every 28 mins just as the 30 min bar (and volume) was forming. If there was no signal he would walk away and wait another 28 mins.

[Seb Manby 11]

a special treat for you, tom williams talking about the Dow 60m cash market. the audio is here http://www.megaupload.com/?d=NYLCBTGG

 

Regards Sebastian

[marketguy 11]

Seb,

Thanks for all. Where exactly do I find the audio upload?

 

Bryan

[Seb Manby 11]

Seb,

Thanks for all. Where exactly do I find the audio upload?

 

Bryan

Hi bryan;

 

I have added it to my previous post, but I did not understand how to link the mp3 straight away.

 

regards Sebastian

[gassah 10]

Hi Sebastian,

 

I moderate a board on Yahoo! called SMI/Wyckoff and I'm helping Dr. Hank Pruden organize a "Best of Wyckoff" conference in San Francisco for the fall of 2008. We'd love for Tom to make a presentation. I tried getting to Tom through Gavin without any luck. Could you lend a hand? Thanks.

 

BTW, Todd Krueger has committed himself if that makes a difference.

 

nic

[TinGull 10]

Wonderful stuff, Seb!!! Thanks!

[marketguy 11]

OK Seb, thanks for that. Clicked on that link and went to the site and still don't see what to click on to download that mp3 file.

 

B

[marketguy 11]

Seb: could you give your recommendations on what to read, watch etc to learn VSA? Books? DVD's? Etc? And in what order?

 

Thanks.

[TinGull 10]

marketguy, when you click the link, in the upper right you'll see something that asks you to type in a code that's presented there. Enter that and then you'll be prompted for the download.

[tawe trader 10]

Hello all, here's another trade I just carried out on the FTSE Future via a 5 min chart, this morning.

 

The market was up strong this morning and above R1.

 

1. There was a wide'ish up bar (yellow arrow) at 9.30am on high volume (marked with a yellow arrow).

2. The next bar (pink arrow) was up into new higher ground but it closed down on less volume (marked with a pink arrow).

 

Now I can assume that there was no demand for higher prices at this point and the previous bar contain some selling (into strength).

 

I went short when the low of this no demand/upthrust bar was broken.

I had a price target of the previous low (dotted yellow line).

 

The trade was successful and I managed to bank 15 pts.

FTSE Fut_Wed 5th Dec - Short.doc

[monad 10]

Hello all, here's another trade I just carried out on the FTSE Future via a 5 min chart, this morning.

 

The market was up strong this morning and above R1.

 

1. There was a wide'ish up bar (yellow arrow) at 9.30am on high volume (marked with a yellow arrow).

2. The next bar (pink arrow) was up into new higher ground but it closed down on less volume (marked with a pink arrow).

 

Now I can assume that there was no demand for higher prices at this point and the previous bar contain some selling (into strength).

 

I went short when the low of this no demand/upthrust bar was broken.

I had a price target of the previous low (dotted yellow line).

 

The trade was successful and I managed to bank 15 pts.

 

Once again a great realtime trade:thumbs up:

 

your previous post on my query regarding using VSA info. to trade in realtime hit the nail right on the head. Just like any other TA indicator, the info. via VSA has to be incorporated into some form of consistent trading strategy, where you wait for the market to meet the criteria before trading and it appears most do not have this or those who have developed are playing close to their chest;) but at least some pointers in the right direction would be helpful.

 

You mention your friend trading FTSE based on the reading of 30min charts, surely this must entail a wide stop loss, he must have high risk tolerance. or does he then enter on 5min bars and places stop loss accordingly.

[tawe trader 10]

You mention your friend trading FTSE based on the reading of 30min charts, surely this must entail a wide stop loss, he must have high risk tolerance. or does he then enter on 5min bars and places stop loss accordingly

 

Yes if you trade off 30min bars you do have wider stops but the possible gain of pts is greater also. He would patiently wait for the 'perfect' set-up and there would sometimes be a couple of days without a trade. For the month of July the record he showed me had 14 trades based on a 30min chart for a total gain of over 420 pts with no losers ! One trade netted him 101 pts. Don't forget he is also taking into account the larger timeframe ie Daily chart.

[jjthetrader 10]

Hello all, here's another trade I just carried out on the FTSE Future via a 5 min chart, this morning.

 

The market was up strong this morning and above R1.

 

1. There was a wide'ish up bar (yellow arrow) at 9.30am on high volume (marked with a yellow arrow).

2. The next bar (pink arrow) was up into new higher ground but it closed down on less volume (marked with a pink arrow).

 

Now I can assume that there was no demand for higher prices at this point and the previous bar contain some selling (into strength).

 

I went short when the low of this no demand/upthrust bar was broken.

I had a price target of the previous low (dotted yellow line).

 

The trade was successful and I managed to bank 15 pts.

 

You've got balls of steel my friend! Making a trade like that takes big ones. Price just blew up through R1 and you've got the confidence that it's going to blow right back under. I see it drifted sideways for a while and that shows even more trading skills, to be able to stay the course.

Nice work, love seeing the real time trades. You inspire everyone here to trust in what you know and see and go for it.

cheers mate.

[Seb Manby 11]

Sebastian,

Have studied the ES charts, but am now confused as to how to implement the info. in trading this in realtime.

 

For example, at point D & E there is weakness, then there is strength at F,

Similarly at G weakness, at H strength. How do we determine entry for a trade in these situations, are we talking about gunning for a point or two?

for although the bar at "I" looks ideal in hindsight, bars could have popped up as before showing strength. How does one manage the trade under these circumstances??

 

Hi Monad;

 

I cannot tell you were to buy or sell, i can only show you the way, you want to wait until the odds are stacked most in your favor before you enter a trade, then you have to monitor the changing conditions in the market and make your won judgement.

 

regards sebastian

[jjthetrader 10]

An example for Monad (who's looking for entries) and Tawe Trader.

 

We have weakness on the open this morning (ES). VHigh Volume up bars on narrow spread.

 

Point A - we get an upthrust. So we want to make a trade like Tawe and wait for the low to break.

 

B - it breaks, now look for the entry. I set mine at the Pivot.

 

C - my order gets filled and I get my 1 point scalp right away.

 

But for longer term traders look what bar follows point C. It's a stop catcher and it would have got mine if I was still in.

 

This illustration is to show what one has to be cautious of when trading these setups. If you're not scalping give your stops some breathing room.

[tawe trader 10]

You've got balls of steel my friend! Making a trade like that takes big ones. Price just blew up through R1 and you've got the confidence that it's going to blow right back under. I see it drifted sideways for a while and that shows even more trading skills, to be able to stay the course.

 

Hello JJ, thanks again for the kind comments but all I have done is adhere to the rules of VSA / Tom Williams - haven't I ?

 

Granted on this trade the risk vs reward was about 1:1 but I see these set-ups happening all the time and there tends to be more winners than losers.

 

As you know, it's also very important to have the patience to wait for the correct set-up and then when in the trade not be too greedy.

[mister ed 10]

a special treat for you, tom williams talking about the Dow 60m cash market. the audio is here http://www.megaupload.com/?d=NYLCBTGG

 

Regards Sebastian

 

Well, I have tried but I cannot get this download to work for me - can anyone email it to me?

ben2127502000 at

yahoo dot

com

 

Thanks

[jjthetrader 10]

Hello JJ, thanks again for the kind comments but all I have done is adhere to the rules of VSA / Tom Williams - haven't I ?

 

For sure you are.

 

What's a FTSE point worth ? It's not a mini future is it?

[bertg 10]

Well, I have tried but I cannot get this download to work for me - can anyone email it to me?

ben2127502000 at

yahoo dot

com

 

Thanks

 

mister ed,

 

The whole point of megaupload and similar sites is to frustrate you and make you pay for "premium" membership where you don't have to wait.

 

1. click link

2. enter the three letter code in the "Please enter xxx here" field, then click "Download" button.

3. Wait 45 seconds or whatever it is (watch the countdown under the "Free" column). Do NOT click on the "Download Link" until the countdown has finished. If you do, you're starting over.

4. After 45 seconds the countdown becomes a clickable button called "Free download." Click it and click "Save" or "Open." I saved my copy.

 

Regards,

Bert

[tawe trader 10]

What's a FTSE point worth ? It's not a mini future is it?

 

JJ, a FTSE Future contract is £10 / pt, I think there may be a mini-contract of half that.

 

I use a UK spreadbetting company for my trades and they have lower min. stake, so it suits my trading of the higher risk setups. I can risk less when going against the trend and place a large stake trade when going with the trend.

 

I have just opened up new s/betting account this month with MFGlobal spreads (part of the Man Futures group) and they now offer daily FTSE trades (bets) with only a 1 pt spread and a £2 / pt min stake. They offer access to hundreds of mkts (I trade the Dow/S&P as well) and any profits are tax-free for UK residents. The trades are classed as bets and the UK government doesn't tax any winning bets anymore (horses, football, financial etc) they tax the profits of the betting company instead, which is great news to profitable traders !

[jjthetrader 10]

JJ, a FTSE Future contract is £10 / pt, I think there may be a mini-contract of half that.

 

They offer access to hundreds of mkts (I trade the Dow/S&P as well) and any profits are tax-free for UK residents. The trades are classed as bets and the UK government doesn't tax any winning bets anymore (horses, football, financial etc) they tax the profits of the betting company instead, which is great news to profitable traders !

 

Sweet. I don't get up early enough here in Canada to trade the FTSE but I was just wondering. Thanks for the info.

[mister ed 10]

mister ed,

 

The whole point of megaupload and similar sites is to frustrate you and make you pay for "premium" membership where you don't have to wait.

 

1. click link

2. enter the three letter code in the "Please enter xxx here" field, then click "Download" button.

3. Wait 45 seconds or whatever it is (watch the countdown under the "Free" column). Do NOT click on the "Download Link" until the countdown has finished. If you do, you're starting over.

4. After 45 seconds the countdown becomes a clickable button called "Free download." Click it and click "Save" or "Open." I saved my copy.

 

Regards,

Bert

 

Thanks Bert - I have successfully used the site in the past to download, so I know the instructions etc. Just cannot get it to work this time.

[Seb Manby 11]

ES analysis for wednesday 5th Dec 07, i have decided to record with voice and upload the files to a server that you can download, I suggest that you archive them for future refrence.

Audio link here http://www.megaupload.com/?d=ERS0UD6L

 

Tell me if you like this method.

 

Regards Sebastian

[jjthetrader 10]

ES analysis for wednesday 5th Dec 07, i have decided to record with voice and upload the files to a server that you can download, I suggest that you archive them for future refrence.

Audio link here http://www.megaupload.com/?d=ERS0UD6L

 

Tell me if you like this method.

 

Regards Sebastian

 

I like this method. Works well I think. Excellent Analysis.

 

What I find the most difficult about trading VSA real-time is trusting what I see. It's hard, psycologically, to short up bars after you've seen a rally. It's something that gets easier over time I'm sure.

 

Thanks for putting in the effort. We appreciate it.

[That One Guy 10]

Yeah, I'm glad I found this method. It's what I have been looking for since I began trading. Great job on the daily analysis, keep up the great work.

 

Thank you.