Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

suby

How to Apply Math to Technical Analysis?

Recommended Posts

Hey guys,

 

I was wondering if any of you guys apply math to your technical analysis when trading?

 

(i.e. Determining probabilities of patterns completing using Price and Volume...)

 

If so how can you do this?

 

Don't know if this makes any sense to technical analysis but I was wondering if any of you guys out there have converted your technical analysis in trading into a science....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In order to USE statistics one has to have knowledge of how statistics work.....and to do that takes at least a couple of years of study....my impression is that the general population here (read "Predictor's" comments about statistics)....has very little background and worse yet the "knowledge" they THINK they have is full of half truths and distortions....

 

If what you want is good information you will need to invest in yourself and get a solid background...go to your local College or University and take the 100 & 200 level courses of "Probability & Statistics"....if you pass those you will have a basis for applying what you learned to trading...if you have a background in general math, you might just go buy the course texts and go through at your own speed.

 

Good luck to you

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Yes, Cliff Sherry is good author, however if a person doesn't have at least a little bit of basic background, they will find that they don't really know how to use the information..

 

Just one man's opinion, but I think eventually you have to learn the basics

 

A couple of recommendations

 

Statistics for Dummies (Text)

or

Khan Academy (Internet)

 

Good luck folks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hey guys,

 

I was wondering if any of you guys apply math to your technical analysis when trading?

 

(i.e. Determining probabilities of patterns completing using Price and Volume...)

 

If so how can you do this?

 

Don't know if this makes any sense to technical analysis but I was wondering if any of you guys out there have converted your technical analysis in trading into a science....

 

A lot of the maths might be handy after the technical analysis - to determine its validity, modify money management behaviour or check out the actual entries and efficiencies of a system......otherwise, you dont really need a lot of maths to apply simple TA. (my preference)

 

Thats not to say that you cant also approach it from a purely maths point of view and do it without a chart, and use maths to optimise parts of a strategy......I suggest it will all depend on your love of maths.

 

(check out people like ralph vince, kelly formula, optimal f, Ed Thorp, Larry Williams - there is plenty of info and debates out there - otherwise start as others suggest - at the beginning - remember there is the off said "lies, lies, and damn statistics" :) a lot has to do with how its presented, what it represents and then if you can follow it.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In order to USE statistics one has to have knowledge of how statistics work.....and to do that takes at least a couple of years of study....my impression is that the general population here (read "Predictor's" comments about statistics)....has very little background and worse yet the "knowledge" they THINK they have is full of half truths and distortions....

 

If what you want is good information you will need to invest in yourself and get a solid background...go to your local College or University and take the 100 & 200 level courses of "Probability & Statistics"....if you pass those you will have a basis for applying what you learned to trading...if you have a background in general math, you might just go buy the course texts and go through at your own speed.

 

Good luck to you

 

Hey Steve,

 

Thank you for your reply.

 

I don't have an undergrad in stats but I have taken stats classes in my undergraduate degree. To what level of stats do you suggest having? Are there any books do you recommend?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes, Cliff Sherry is good author, however if a person doesn't have at least a little bit of basic background, they will find that they don't really know how to use the information..

 

Just one man's opinion, but I think eventually you have to learn the basics

 

A couple of recommendations

 

Statistics for Dummies (Text)

or

Khan Academy (Internet)

 

Good luck folks

 

Please disregard the comment above

 

I was wondering what is your opinion on Cliff Sherrys book?

 

I have it and have read the first few chapters. Do you apply some of the knowledge in this book to your trading?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Please disregard the comment above

 

I was wondering what is your opinion on Cliff Sherrys book?

 

I have it and have read the first few chapters. Do you apply some of the knowledge in this book to your trading?

 

First, the more you know, the better.....in all things...the problem is that you have to invest quite a bit of time to get enough knowledge to make a significant difference...I would estimate that taking the first year of probability & statistics is a minimum for most serious professionals...You also need to know how to use an Excel Spreadsheet, how to import data and to analyze it using the available menu options...

 

Sherry's book is an excellent example of what I was saying...He goes through many difference aspects of statistical analysis...if you have some background you can follow what he is doing and make sense of it...if on the other hand you don't have an adequate background it will probably not make much sense to you...You probably won't like this but it is just like learning math after not having done it for a while...if for example you took beggining

algebra in high school or college and then did nothing with it for a while, you cannot expect to simply move ahead to intermediate algebra without doing some review...do you see what I mean...? Sorry but in this case there aren't many "shortcuts"....

 

If you know someone with a good solid background it may speed up your learning process if you can ask them questions. This is why the Khan Academy is a good idea for many students. You can go at your own pace and learn quite a bit.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

if you did not study stats in uni,

i would not bother starting now.

getting a passing knowledge is ok, but

applying stats requires deep understandings,

and deep understanding in stats do not come overnight.

 

there are many ways to skin a cat,

some trade with high maths,

some trade with basic arithmetic,

some even trade without a chart.

 

many ppl go through life without academic stats

they lived just fine

so did you so far

 

be happy with what tools you have

and learn to apply them,

there are money awaiting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The purpose of applied statistics is to answer questions, If you don't know what it is your looking for there is nothing to find.

 

Once you have an idea of what it is that you're looking for, and what questions you are trying to answer, you can venture down the rabbit hole.

 

UC Berkeley Webcasts | Video and Podcasts:

 

Statistics 110: Probability | Harvard Video Course

 

 

Khan Academy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If your looking to determine how price patterns and such play out in terms of their statistical edge... i strongly suggest you google bulkowski. He's written several books on what your asking about, and he has a great free website (not sure the URL..google him, it'll come up)

 

for example, a bearish engulfing candle on a daily chart in any given equity in the stock market has I believe a 78% chance of accurately forecasting a 5% drop in the stocks price (if I remember correctly anyway... I know for a fact it's over 68%)

 

How did he determine this? He found over 30,000 examples in over 500 different stocks taken over a 10+ year period of time, and he has software he developed that specifcally screed for this criteria. This was the result.

 

Not exactly sure what your looking for, but if you want to see statstical validity in your chart patterns, bulkowski probably has what your looking for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If your looking to determine how price patterns and such play out in terms of their statistical edge... i strongly suggest you google bulkowski. He's written several books on what your asking about, and he has a great free website (not sure the URL..google him, it'll come up)

 

for example, a bearish engulfing candle on a daily chart in any given equity in the stock market has I believe a 78% chance of accurately forecasting a 5% drop in the stocks price (if I remember correctly anyway... I know for a fact it's over 68%)

 

How did he determine this? He found over 30,000 examples in over 500 different stocks taken over a 10+ year period of time, and he has software he developed that specifcally screed for this criteria. This was the result.

 

Not exactly sure what your looking for, but if you want to see statstical validity in your chart patterns, bulkowski probably has what your looking for.

 

Thank you very much for sharing this with me, this is exactly what I was looking for!

 

Do you trade according to Bulkowskis methods?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The purpose of applied statistics is to answer questions, If you don't know what it is your looking for there is nothing to find.

 

Once you have an idea of what it is that you're looking for, and what questions you are trying to answer, you can venture down the rabbit hole.

 

UC Berkeley Webcasts | Video and Podcasts:

 

Statistics 110: Probability | Harvard Video Course

 

 

Khan Academy

 

Thank you for this ADDChild!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank you very much for sharing this with me, this is exactly what I was looking for!

 

Do you trade according to Bulkowskis methods?

 

Heh... ya, I kinda figured this is what you were looking for. I remember once upon a time having this same question on some long gone chat room, and shortly after found bulkowski's books, then later, his website.

 

Do I trade according to bulkowski's methods. Interesting question... No, I can't say that I do, but this does not take anything away from his work!

 

You see, I'm a day trader primarily. I may hold a trade for 2 or 3 days on occassion, but the vast majority of my trades resolve within 24 hours of entry.

 

Bulkowski does not day trade to my knowledge. So it goes nearly without saying that we obviously have 2 very different styles of trading.

 

That being said, I use bulkowski concepts heavily to help me determine my daily bias.

 

For example, If I see a bearish engulfing candle on a daily chart of the EUR/USD, or GOOG, or BAC...etc... I know that there is about a 79% chance that the following day will close lower than the bearish engulfing day.

 

With this in mind, I will ONLY take short trades. If this aligns with the overall daily trend, even better.

 

This is how I use bulkowski's concepts. I don't trade using his method exactly, but if a bulkowski pattern has a high probability of determining the following daily candlestick (like the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern)... then I will only trade in the direction of the likely resolution for that following day. I would never take any day trades long if I saw a bearish engulfing candle on a daily chart in just about any market, I would only look for places to get short.

 

Hope this helps...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • LZ LegalZoomcom stock, watch for a bull flag breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?LZ
    • XMTR Xometry stock, watch for a local breakout above 37.5, target 44 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?XMTR
    • INTC Intel stock, nice bounce off the lower 19.12 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?INTC
    • Date: 11th February 2025.   Market Update: Tariffs, Inflation, and Investor Sentiment Shape Global Markets.   Asian equities and US stock index futures experienced declines. At the same time, gold surged to a record high, reflecting investor caution following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminium. Stock markets in Hong Kong and mainland China faced selling pressure, contributing to a regional downturn. Futures contracts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Euro Stoxx 50 also traded lower. Meanwhile, Japanese markets remained closed due to a public holiday. Gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset duringeconomic uncertainty, extended its rally for a third consecutive session, briefly surpassing $2,942 before paring some gains. The US dollar index maintained its Monday gains, signalling sustained strength amid market volatility. The precious metal has surged about 11% this year, setting successive records as Trump’s disruptive moves on trade and geopolitics reinforce its role as a store of value in uncertain times. US Steel and Metals Sector Reacts to Tariffs Shares of US Steel Corporation surged as much as 6% following Trump’s announcement, as domestic metals producers saw a boost from the prospect of increased business and stronger pricing power. Canada, Brazil, and Mexico, the top steel suppliers to the US, are expected to be significantly impacted by these trade restrictions. Trump stated that the new tariffs, effective in March, aim to revitalize domestic production and job growth. However, he also suggested the possibility of further tariff increases, adding to market uncertainty.     Investor Concerns Over Tariffs and Trade War Escalation Investors are grappling with the implications of Trump’s tariffs, particularly in distinguishing between policy announcements and concrete actions. The uncertainty surrounding additional levies and potential retaliatory measures has reignited fears of an intensifying global trade war. Tariffs on Chinese goods are already in effect, and concerns persist about further economic fallout. According to Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs, the key challenge in portfolio strategy now lies in identifying assets that can effectively hedge against tariff risks. Speaking to Bloomberg Television, he noted, “The big challenge is that this is going to be much more difficult from here because the tariffs are very specific.” Key Economic Data and Federal Reserve Testimony in Focus Beyond trade tensions, investors are closely watching this week’s critical economic reports and statements from Federal Reserve officials. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify before Congress, while fresh inflation data will provide further insight into price trends. According to the New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, inflation expectations for both the one-year and three-year outlooks remained steady at 3% in January. Short-term US inflation expectations have now risen above longer-term projections to their widest gap since 2023, signalling potential shifts in monetary policy. Inflation data, Powell’s congressional testimony, and tariffs are poised to drive the market today. A reprieve from negative surprises, such as the impact of DeepSeek, ongoing tariffs, and consumer sentiment concerns, could push S&P 500 to break out of its two-month consolidation.     Currency and Commodity Markets React The currency market also reflected shifting investor sentiment. The Japanese Yen remained largely unchanged. Meanwhile, the British Pound weakened after a report from the Financial Times cited Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann’s concerns that weakening demand is beginning to outweigh inflationary risks. Gold’s continued ascent has been accompanied by significant inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds. Global holdings have risen in six of the past seven weeks, reaching their highest levels since November. Banks have forecast that gold could test the $3,000 mark, with Citigroup predicting it could hit that level within three months and J.P. Morgan Private Bank projecting a year-end target of $3,150. Market Resilience Amid Trade Uncertainty Despite ongoing tariff tensions, equities have demonstrated resilience, leading some analysts to caution that further trade escalations could trigger renewed market pullbacks. Strategists at Deutsche Bank AG, including Binky Chadha, suggested that historical patterns indicate sharp but short-lived equity selloffs during geopolitical events, with markets typically rebounding before any formal de-escalation occurs. They projected that, in such scenarios, equity markets could decline by 6%-8% over a three-week period before recovering in a similar timeframe. China’s Growing Gold Reserves and Market Influence China’s central bank expanded its gold reserves for the third consecutive month in January, signalling an ongoing commitment to diversifying its holdings despite record-high prices. In addition, China introduced a pilot program allowing 10 major insurers to invest up to 1% of their assets in bullion for the first time. This initiative could translate into as much as 200 billion Yuan ($27.4 billion) in potential gold investments. Key Market Events to Watch This Week Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee today Speeches by Fed officials Beth Hammack, John Williams, and Michelle Bowman today US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, Wednesday As global markets continue to navigate economic uncertainties, investors remain watchful of trade developments, monetary policy signals, and inflation trends that could shape the financial landscape in the coming weeks.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • KAR Openlane stock breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?KAR
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.