Portfolios (S&P500, Nasdaq 100, DAX, US Stocks)

[Duarte 10]

As was observed before, it seems that the ACWI (iShares MSCI All Country World Index Fund) is following the same pattern.

I expect that overall market (USA, Germany,...) continues to go up, as long as the ACWI continues to close above the previous low 46,48 and key support. If close daily below 46,48 I consider the possibility of exit.

 

[Duarte 10]

Below are the Portfolios.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2012 by Duarte

[Duarte 10]

The lower profitability of the US STOCK PORTFOLIO is related with the lower performance of the Nasdaq 100 index.

[Duarte 10]

Below there are the Portfolios.

 

 

[Duarte 10]

The following charts provide an overview of the portfolios evolution since the beginning.

 

The black line illustrates the evolution of the portfolio and the blue line shows an exponential moving average.

(Updated on Fridays)

 

I made a small correction: On October 5, the stock LTON closed at 2, 54, but I updated the portfolio with the day low price (2, 47).

The portfolio chart has already been corrected.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Duarte 10]

I have wanted to try trade without any stop loss because I take a long time to put the stop loss in all assets but the market fell and I took time to act.

In rare situations I'll consider the possibility to buy and sell partial positions and I will not use the amount that I have determined at the start. (4000 USD or 3200 EUR) This would have been one of these situations.

I'll spend more money on commissions, but I'll protect the portfolio.

[Duarte 10]

The recent fall in NASDAQ reflects the great dependence on and affinity with the movements seen on the Apple which, by its turn influence the remaining indexes (S&P 500, DAX). This fall shows us that we can look quickly at the Apple chart to help us in market analysis.

Both have the possibility of having the same formation (Head and Shoulders) with the difference that Appl broke down one day before as compared with the NASDAQ.

 

 

Now, I'm going to wait the confirmation that the rising support trend line in Appl is broken.

 

 

[Duarte 10]

Will Apple´s support line hold?

 

 

Will SPY´s 50 day moving average support line hold?

 

[Duarte 10]

The stocks of the US Stock Portfolio and the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey of last week suggest that the uptrend will resume.

That´s my guess.

[Duarte 10]

We shall see what happens over the next two or three days.

For the present, the market is reacting well to supports.

[Duarte 10]

I'll start a New Portfolio.

 

In the “All ETFs Portfolio” I trade ETFs of all markets and indexes in the world.

The great majority of Exchange Traded Funds/Indexes that I´ll trade are leveraged, which makes this portfolio a very high risk portfolio.

My goal is to follow market trends, and with a higher risk achieve a higher return.

 

The portfolio is composed by 5 ETFs.

[Duarte 10]

I will sell: EGHT, WIBC, LTON.

[Duarte 10]

I sold the stocks for different reasons:

 

1. I think the markets can go down a few days (Maybe one or two days?)

2. To be possible for me to buy others stocks.

3. LTON´s average daily volume of transactions has remained low and also because the stock it is near to a horizontal line resistance.

Despite the low trading volume I don´t put aside to buy again the stock.

4. EGHT and WIBC not rose as much as I expected. I want to buy stocks that go up a little faster.

Edited October 18, 2012 by Duarte

[Duarte 10]

Below is the US Stock Portfolio Updated.

 

 

[Duarte 10]

Today, for example, I had predicted that market was going to fall but I hold the vast majority of positions in the portfolios.

This is because I have many open positions and I wouldn't have time to do many updates.

I will hold the great majority of positions as long as I believe that the trend will continue.

[Duarte 10]

Below there are the portfolios update.

 

 

 

 

[Duarte 10]

The following charts provide an overview of the portfolios evolution since the beginning.

 

The black line illustrates the evolution of the portfolio and the blue line shows an exponential moving average.

(Updated on Fridays)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Duarte 10]

The NASDAQ 100 fell -1, 54% this week, which reflects the considerable weight of the Apple in this index and its great dependence on and affinity with the movements seen on the Apple. If the Apple continues to drop, the market will be unable to rise because the NASDAQ influences the remaining indexes.

The Apple support lines have been broken, which is a bad sign.

The Apple fell the last four consecutive weeks, which does not happen often. Since 2009, this is the third time this happens.

In the last two times, the market has recovered very rapidly.

 

 

 

The MSCI All Country World Index Fund continues to have higher lows and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF is close to the 50 days moving average where, since June, has reacted positively.

 

 

 

This week’s poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors is at 44, 5% bearish, only 28, 7% bullish.

The traditional interpretation of sentiment readings is contrarian, meaning that AAII Investor Sentiment is giving a possible bullish signal.

 

It is difficult to predict what will happen, but I still think that the market will rise.

Edited October 20, 2012 by Duarte

[Duarte 10]

New Positions.

US Stock Portfolio.

 

I will buy :

Wilshire Bancorp Inc (WIBC)

 

Wilshire Bancorp Inc had broken the 50-day moving average resistance. I think it is likely that price will continue to rise.

Wilshire Bancorp Inc's net cash provided by operating activities increased from 2011 to 2012.

[Vinayak 10]

S&P 500 should keep rising!

There has been a lot of good news coming out of the US on the economy front with the Fiscal Cliff deal being reached being one. There is also very encouraging Non Farm Payrolls numbers, although the unemployment rate has has persistently remained high.

The Fiscal Cliff agreement being reached has surely avoided the much feared double dip recession and now investors can stop worrying and turn their attention to the next round of corporate earnings announcements.

Wall Street is long on the index!

[Duarte 10]

New Position

 

US Stock Portfolio:

 

I will buy :

 

Leap Frog Enterprises Inc. (LF)

 

Leap Frog Enterprises Inc. (LF) broke above the 50-day moving average resistance. I think it likely that price will continue to rise.

Leap Frog Enterprises Inc's net cash provided by operating activities increased from 2011 to 2012.

[Duarte 10]

Below there are the portfolios update.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Duarte 10]

SPY paid a dividend of 1,022 dollars per etf in 12/21/2012.

28*1,022= 28,616

I added this amount to the S&P 500 ETF Portfolio

107,74+28,616=136,356

 

SSO paid a dividend of 0,112 dollars per etf in 12/26/2012

65*0,112=7,28

I added this amount to the S&P 500 ETF Double-Leveraged Portfolio

213,15+7,28 = 220,43

 

UPRO paid a dividend of 0,017 dollars per etf in 12/26/2012

44*0,017= 0,748

I added this amount to the S&P 500 ETF Triple-Leveraged Portfolio

324,04+0,748= 324,788

 

QQQ paid a dividend of 0,367 dollars per etf in 12/21/2012

58*0,367=21,286

I added this amount to the NASDAQ 100 ETF Portfolio

49,93+21,286= 71,216

 

QLD paid a dividend of 0,082 dollars per etf in 12/26/2012

65*0,082= 5,33

I added this amount to the NASDAQ 100 ETF Double-Leveraged Portfolio

86,48+5,33 =91,81

[Duarte 10]

RTK paid a dividend of 0,19 dollars per share in 12/18/2012.

SIRI paid a dividend of 0,05 dollars per share in 12/14/2012

 

1626*0,19=308,94

1544*0,05=77,22

308,94+77,22= 386,16

 

I added this amount to the US Stock Portfolio.

386,16+286,04=672,22

[Duarte 10]

I will close all open positions.

In my view, the probability of there being a short term correction increased.