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Duarte

Portfolios (S&P500, Nasdaq 100, DAX, US Stocks)

By Duarte, in Stocks

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted

I'll clarify what I have done so far.

 

I wrote in the first posts what I do.

 

I wrote this: "I determine my market posture through a careful analysis of the charts. I observe the market direction - up, down or sideways – with the S&P 500 index, Nasdaq 100 index, Dow Jones index, MSCI ACWI index, Dax index or other leader index where the stock acts. Acting in concert with the market direction, i increase my odds of success."

 

What I did first? I have carefully looked at the ACWI (iShares MSCI ACWI index Fund)

 

"The overall market direction is up since the beginning of June. The overall market fall a few days but now went back up and breakout has happened. The breakout suggests that the market direction continues upward. I'm still afraid to be buying in the worst month for the markets, but I also don´t want that the market run away without me. My market posture is bullish."

 

I wrote this: "When I expect the market will go up, my market posture is bullish. That means, I’m buying stocks and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). My market posture remains bullish until my "stop" is reached."

 

That's what I did. I bought stocks and ETFs.

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted

The overall market continues pointing in an upward direction. The ACWI (iShares MSCI ACWI index Fund) will continue to rise as long as it remains to build higher highs and higher lows.

 

EtHar.png

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted

I saw that the "U.S. Stock Portfolio" has an emergency stop wrong. Not updated the emergency stop of DCT, and still appears the emergency stop of NCT (7.58), it was already closed. As nobody noticed, I see that nobody is paying enough attention.:)

 

 

 

Buy alert:

 

 

DCT INDUSTRIAL TRUST INC (DCT) with emergency stop at 6,46.

 

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted

Two additional tips to review before investing in a leveraged ETF

 

1. Decide first on the amount of leverage that is appropriate from 1x to 3x.

 

2. Before placing a trade, confirm the ticker. As this products have similar ticker between long and short version, double checking will prevent errors.

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted

As I have described, I observe the market direction in the indexes *, determine my market posture and I act in concert with the market direction. I think this is already assimilated by those who followed the portfolios until this point.

 

* Observe market direction in index or in ETF is the same thing, because the purpose of the ETF is to replicate the index.

 

On 09/04/2012 I observed the market direction through the ACWI (MSCI All Country World Index ETF) and later returned to do the same.

 

I not talked about ACWI, but from the description it is clear that is an ETF world.

 

When I analyze the global market, I use often this ETF.The ACWI is constituted by a large number of United States stocks (46.28%), UK stocks (8.25%), Germany stocks (3.14%) and stocks of various other countries.

 

Read about the ACWI: http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/ACWI.htm

 

When my market posture is bullish in ACWI that means, almost always, bullish also in the United States and Germany.

 

Now that I clarified better this part. I thought it might be interesting to create a portfolio for my market posture and I did it. The market posture is the key piece of gear that makes portfolios to move.

 

 

G9C0E.png

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted
I think I'll buy again SIRI, but I still don´t know when.

 

 

I think it's time to buy again SIRI, responded well to the MA (50).

I´ll sell DCT and buy SIRI with emergency stop at 2,32.

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted

I expect that overall market continues to go up, as long as the ACWI (MSCI All Country World Index Fund) continues to close above the previous low 47,20 and key support. If close daily below 47, 20, I consider the possibility of exit.

 

iGXUF.png

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted

The ACWI reached the previous low.

It is still too early to know if this is simply a few days of selling or the beginning of a deeper correction but I'll put the emergency stop closer to the current price in all ETFs and stocks.

 

ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF with emergency stop at 65,74

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted (edited)

Emergency stop alert:

 

I´ll update the emergency stop

 

ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF with emergency stop at 65,74

S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF with emergency stop at 144,10

ProSharesUltra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF with emergency stop at 61,47

ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF with emergency stop at 90,81

ProShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF with emergency stop at 68,76

ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF with emergency stop at 61,11

ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF with emergency stop at 61,21

 

Rentech, Inc. (RTK) with emergency stop at 2,55

Wilshire State Bank (WIBC) with emergency stop at 6,38

8X8 INC (EGHT) with emergency stop at 6,69

ING GROEP NV (ING) with emergency stop at 8,32

Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI) with emergency stop at 2,46

Edited by Duarte

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted

The EXS1 ETF (DAX index) has reached its emergency stop.

 

At the moment there are no open positions in the portfolios.

My current market posture is neutral.

 

Below is the DAX ETF PORTFOLIO.

 

ipRJV.png

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted

The following charts illustrate the evolution of the Portfolios since the beginning.

 

The black line illustrates the evolution of the portfolios and the blue line shows an exponential moving average.

 

F74Da.png

 

 

 

 

The QQQ ETF distributes dividends quarterly. The last dividend was 0,20 on 09/21/2012.

Qty * dividend = 59 * 0,20 = 11,80. This amount I added to the "Nasdaq 100 ETF PORTFOLIO."

“Actual Value”: 4277,63 + 11,80= 4289,43

“Closed trades”: 85,93 + 11,80= 97,73

 

Curiously it was after the dividend, that markets began to fall.

 

 

E6OxH.png

 

 

Dm4Ws.png

 

 

QTO5z.png

 

 

 

The SPY ETF distributes dividends quarterly. The last dividend was 0,779 on 09/21/2012.

Qty * dividend = 28 * 0,779 = 21,81. This amount I added to the “S&P 500 ETF PORTFOLIO".

“Actual Value”: 4325,95 + 21,81= 4347,76

“Closed trades”: 85,93 + 21,81= 107,74

 

Curiously it was after the dividend, that markets began to fall.

 

 

ezwjG.png

 

 

 

The SSO ETF distributes dividends quarterly. The last dividend was 0,1180 on 09/25/2012.

Qty * dividend = 69 * 0,1180 = 8,14. This amount I added to the “S&P 500 DOUBLE-LEVERAGED PORTFOLIO ".

“Actual Value”: 4445,01 + 8,14= 4453,15

“Closed trades”: 205,01 + 8,14= 213,15

 

 

yCQ5x.png

 

 

eML8O.png

 

 

Bc2qi.png

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted

About a month ago, the ACWI rise after 11 days of declines. Now, there are also 11 days of declines, but the breakout not happened yet.

Maybe in a few days, I understand better what the market is doing.

 

aw01I.png

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted (edited)

About a month ago, the ACWI rise after 11 days of declines. Now, there are also 11 days of declines, but the breakout not happened yet.

In perhaps a few days' time, I will understand better what the market is doing.

 

aw01I.png

Edited by Duarte

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted

The futures market is rising.

I guess that the pattern will be repeated and the market will rise.

My current market posture is bullish. This means that I´ll buy ETFs and stocks.

I'll buy the almost the same stocks and ETFs, but this time I will not use the emergency stop.

I´ll use the emergency stop at a later date.

 

So...

 

I´ll buy:

 

S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF

ProSharesUltra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF

ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF

ProShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF

ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF

ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF

 

Rentech, Inc. (RTK)

Wilshire State Bank (WIBC)

8X8 INC (EGHT)

Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI)

LINKTONE LTD ADS (LTON)

 

I picked 5 stocks which are in concert with the market direction.

All of the stocks mentioned above increased their net cash provided by operating activities from 2010 to 2011.

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted (edited)

I thought I had written this post here at 08:22 AM, about the same time I wrote for the thread "Portfolios (Gold and Silver) Stocks and ETFs", but some error happened and I copied this post again. I apologize for the delay, I don´t know what happened.

Edited by Duarte

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Duarte    10

Duarte
Posted
I thought I had written this post here at 08:22 AM, about the same time I wrote for the thread "Portfolios (Gold and Silver) Stocks and ETFs", but some error happened and I copied this post again. I apologize for the delay, I don´t know what happened.

 

It made no difference because the markets have not risen, but my goal is to communicate the trades before market opening.

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