Portfolios (S&P500, Nasdaq 100, DAX, US Stocks)

[Duarte 10]

Before I talk about my portfolios, I will talk about my goals.

 

My first goal is to try to respond as best as possible to what the market is doing and act appropriately. I am talking about trend-following discipline.

 

When i expect the market will go up, my market posture is bullish. That means, i´m buying stocks and Exchange TradedFunds (ETFs). My market posture remains bullish until my "stop" is reached.

 

When i expect the market will go down,my market posture is bearish. That means, i´m buying inverse Exchange TradedFunds (ETFs). My market posture remains bearish until my "stop" is reached.

 

When i don't expect anything, my market posture is neutral. That means, i´m not buying.

 

My second goal is to get better knowledge about some ETFs that i usually don´t trade. (For example: EXS1, DXSN,UPRO, SPXU, TQQQ, SQQQ)

 

My third goal is to explain in simple terms the reasons for my decisions.

[Duarte 10]

I determine my market posture through a careful analysis of the charts. I observe the market direction - up, down orsideways – with the S&P 500 index, Nasdaq 100 index, Dow Jones index, MSCI ACWI index, Dax index or other leader index where the stock acts. Acting in concert with the market direction, i increase my odds of success.

[Duarte 10]

I pick stocks to buy based on a careful analysis of the historical charts. I also consider other factors, such as net cash from operating activities, volume and beta.

[Duarte 10]

I´m going to have 8 independent portfolios, of which the first 7 are long/short trend-following with ETFs of different leverage, and the eighth, is a long trend-following with US stocks. Plus: I have separate stop-loss limits for each ETF/stock, which is influenced by portfolio volatility/leverage and my perception of trend strength and risk.

 

Portfolio 1: 1x DAX ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF or DB X-TRACKERS SHORTDAX (DXSN) ETF

 

Portfolio 2: 1x S&P 500 ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF or ProShares Short S&P 500 Fund (SH) ETF

 

Portfolio 3: 2x S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (200% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF or ProShares Ultra Short S&P500 (SDS) ETF

 

Portfolio 4: 3x S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (300% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF or ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) ETF

 

Portfolio 5: 1x Nasdaq 100 ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF or ProShares Short QQQ Fund (PSQ) ETF

 

Portfolio 6: 2x Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (200% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF or ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (QID) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 7: 3x Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (300% of the benchmark's daily performance)

 

... uses ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF or ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) ETF

 

Portfolio 8: US Stock Portfolio

... is composed by 5 US stocks.

Edited September 10, 2012 by MadMarketScientist
as requested

[Duarte 10]

Broker example http://www.interactivebrokers.com'>http://www.interactivebrokers.com

I consider 5 EUR or 5 USD per buy and sell order.

Broker example http://www.interactivebrokers.com

The monetary value of each position is 4000 USD or € 3200 EUR.

 

Rule:

All entries and emergency stops must be sent to this " thread " , with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening and automatically placed on the market after the market opens.

Edited September 6, 2012 by MadMarketScientist
as requested

[Duarte 10]

Nasdaq 100 Leveraged 200 ETF Portfolio uses ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF and ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (QLD) ETF

 

Error: There is a duplicate symbol.

 

Nasdaq 100 Leveraged 200 ETF Portfolio uses ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF and ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (QID) ETF

[Duarte 10]

Emergency stop

 

The emergency stop that I use is activated if the price moves downwards too far.

Because of the high volatility of the US Stocks and 300% leveraged ETFs, the stop is placed farther away from the current price, implies that the portfolios that use these assets have higher risk.

When my uncertainty is higher or plan to sell, the stop is closer to the current price.

[Duarte 10]

The months of September and October are statistically the two worst months of the year for the market but there are no signs that the overall market will decline, but I also have doubts that it will continue to rise.

[Duarte 10]

The overall market direction is up since the beginning of June.

The overall market fall a few days but now went back up and breakout has happened.

The breakout suggests that the market direction continues upward.

I'm still afraid to be buying in the worst month for the markets, but I also don´t want that the market run away without me. My market posture is bullish.

 

[Duarte 10]

Buy alert:

 

I'll start buying tomorrow.

 

ETFs:

 

ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF with stop at 62,0.

[Duarte 10]

Buy alert:

 

ETFs:

 

S&P 500SPDRs (SPY) ETF with emergency stop at 139,73.

ProSharesUltraS&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF with emergency stop at 57,26.

ProSharesUltraProS&P 500 (UPRO) ETF with emergency stop at 81,40.

ProSharesQQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF with emergency stop at 67,10.

ProSharesUltraQQQ Fund (QLD) ETF with emergency stop at 58,08.

ProSharesUltraProQQQ (TQQQ) ETF with emergency stop at 56,59.

 

US Stocks:

21STCENTURY HLDG CO (TCHC) with emergency stop at 5,08

Sirius XMRadio Inc (SIRI) with emergency stop at 2,45

WilshireState Bank (WIBC) with emergency stop at 5,95

 

I picked stocks that are also with the upward direction. All 3 stocks mentioned above increased their net cash provided by operating activities from 2010 to 2011.

[Duarte 10]

Buy alert:

 

Rentech, Inc. (RTK) with emergency stop at 2,15

 

Rentech continues to make a series of higher highs and higher lows.

Rentech Inc.'s net cash provided by operating activities increased from 2010 to 2011.

[Duarte 10]

Buy alert:

21STCENTURY HLDG CO (TCHC) with emergency stop at 5,08

I had not seen that the volume of 21STCENTURY HLDG CO (TCHC) is so low, I had already selected stocks by volume but this stock escaped. If the stock had dropped, I would have counted, but has risen 9,24%. The alert was a mistake because stock has a very low volume, I will not count. Let's pretend that I didn't make the alert.

[Duarte 10]

I pick stocks with volume over 100 000 stocks per day and usually price under $10 USD, but these are not my only criteria.

[Duarte 10]

Emergency stops alert:

 

SiriusXMRadio Inc (SIRI) with emergency stop at 2,48

WilshireStateBank (WIBC) with emergency stop at 6,21

Rentech,Inc. (RTK) with emergency stop at 2,1

ISHARES DAX(DE) (EXS1) ETF with emergency stop at 62,50

 

 

Buy alert:

 

ING GROEPNV (ING) with emergency stop at 7,40

NEWCASTLEINVESTMENT CORP (NCT) with emergency stop at 7,58

 

I picked stocks that are also with the upward direction.

The two stocks mentioned above increased their net cash provided by operating activities from 2010 to 2011.

[Duarte 10]

 

Rule:

 

All entries and emergency stops must be sent to this " thread " , with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening and automatically placed on the market after the market opens.

 

 

Portfolio 1: 1x DAX ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF or DB X-TRACKERS SHORTDAX (DXSN) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 2: 1x S&P 500 ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF or ProShares Short S&P 500 Fund (SH) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 3: 2x S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (200% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF or ProShares Ultra Short S&P500 (SDS) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 4: 3x S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (300% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF or ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 5: 1x Nasdaq 100 ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF or ProShares Short QQQ Fund (PSQ) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 6: 2x Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (200% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF or ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (QID) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 7: 3x Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (300% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF or ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 8: US Stock Portfolio

... is composed by 5 US stocks.

Edited September 10, 2012 by MadMarketScientist
as requested

[Duarte 10]

If someone are experiencing difficulties viewing this images through Firefox, this add-on fix the problem.

 

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-us/firefox/ad...imageshack-fix/

 

I'll stop using Imageshack.

[Duarte 10]

SIRI and NCT reached their emergency stop.

Edited September 12, 2012 by Duarte

[Duarte 10]

UPDATE

 

Trades concluded $$

 

[Duarte 10]

I think I'll buy again SIRI, but I still don´t know when.

 

Now, I buy other stocks.

 

Buy alert:

 

8X8 INC(EGHT) with emergency stop at 6,11.

 

DCT INDUSTRIAL TRUST INC (DCT) with emergency stop at 6,46.

 

I picked stocks that are also with the upward direction. The two stocks mentioned above increased their net cash provided by operating activities from 2010 to 2011.

[Duarte 10]

Rule:

All entries and emergency stops must be sent to this " thread " , with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening and automatically placed on the market after the market opens.

 

UPDATE

 

Portfolio 1: 1x DAX ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF or DB X-TRACKERS SHORTDAX (DXSN) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 2: 1x S&P 500 ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF or ProShares Short S&P 500 Fund (SH) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 3: 2x S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (200% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF or ProShares Ultra Short S&P500 (SDS) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 4: 3x S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (300% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF or ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 5: 1x Nasdaq 100 ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF or ProShares Short QQQ Fund (PSQ) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 6: 2x Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (200% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF or ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (QID) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 7: 3x Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (300% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF or ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) ETF

 

 

Portfolio 8: US Stock Portfolio

... is composed by 5 US stocks.

[Duarte 10]

Portfolios 1 to 7.

Is updated with the actual value.

[Duarte 10]

I don´t have 2x Leveraged DAX ETFs in the topic, despite that, I prefer to use 2x leveraged ETFs (200% of the benchmark's daily performance).The buy/sell signs are the same that happens with 1x DAX ETF Portfolio.

[Duarte 10]

To use or not to use Leveraged ETFs?

 

There are some people suggest that we should not use leveraged ETFs, arguing that “volatility destroys Leveraged ETFs” or “Leveraged ETFs lose from compounding”, but I think that we must not do as some suggest because Leveraged ETFs are not as dangerous as they say.

 

Let's take an example, suppose we bought SSO (2x Leveraged S&P 500 ETF) and UPRO (3x Leveraged S&P500 ETF) at 7/1/12 and held it through today (9/15/12). The underlying S&P 500 Index gained 42, 67% over that period, SPY (S&P 500 ETF) gained 49, 56% (more than 42,67%), SSO gained 99,91% (more than 2x 42,67%= 85,34%) and UPRO gained 152,85% (more than 3x 42,67% = 128,01%).

 

So, we conclude that, SSO and UPRO reached more than their purposes.

 

It's not always that way. In periods of extreme volatility, Leveraged ETFs loses value, but also gains more value in other periods.

 

The leveraged ETFs aren't perfect but I think with reasonable market timing, leveraged ETFs are a good way to increase our returns.

Edited September 15, 2012 by Duarte

[Duarte 10]

Rule:

All entries and emergency stops must be sent to this " thread " , with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening and automatically placed on the market after the market opens.

 

UPDATE