Steve's Basic System for Retail Traders

[Enigmatics 10]

Actually I do mind...to really do the material justice takes time....time I don't have...sorry

 

With regard to the 3 min candles....after a hell of a lot of testing, I found that the 3 min time frame provides the right amount of granularity (detail)...so that looking at candles on that time frame and reading the tape....it all makes sense....and I can see pretty clearly when there is real interest in moving price up or down and can see momentum as it ramps up (as participants start to jump on board the train just before it leaves the station). I've explained before that its difficult to show anyone how to do it on a discussion forum....so it should come to no surprise that I have to draw the line right about here....

 

Good luck folks.

steve

 

Understood. Was under the impression though by the title of this thread, that you were attempting to explain those things. But if it's now just a thread where you're tracking your trades then so be it! :thumbs up:

[steve46 12]

Noticed this silliness and had to say something

 

First of all children....I do what I can with the time I have available....

Second.....for those who happen to find this thread later when I am long gone....READ the pages....what you have are examples of a concept....how the ES market moves against the backdrop of standard statistical deviations....If you just LOOK at the examples what you might see, is that as of right now, the real opportunities are found trading off the European market open, holding favorable positions into the US open....

Third....this is the bare bones of the idea...the real meat of the system is how you recognize your entry and exits and how you manage risk...and that isn't here...Now some can take what is published here freely and take it to its conclusion....I think that's great...more power to you....for those who cannot....

 

I teach this to adults who apply every year.....small classes of approx. 4 people....

 

I don't expect to be all things to all people, but hey there's always Pristine, or Predictor

[steve46 12]

Okay a couple of things quickly

 

First, class is closed....for those who asked and did not get into the class I tried to suggest alternatives that might fit your needs, and for those who waited and didn't act ....I realize I am biased about this but opportunity DOES knock and in this case very softly...as is always the case, some few folks came to the door, most did not....

 

and in terms of the systematic approach posted here....couple of things for those do it yourselfers...first....I do trade using this as the general concept....and it works IF you understand that you have to wait patiently for price to over extend itself...that is where the real opportunity lies (in terms of timing, these days the best opportunities have been trading off the European open and holding into the US RTH open). Good luck with that

 

For those who need to trade the RTH hours, I found way to show folks how to read volume patterns....The process is simple (3 steps) and it is easier than reading the "footprint" software that you folk all saw when Predictor was posting here....and much easier than reading the tape (which is the way I was originally trained)....as it turns out, price is a lagging indicator (lol) and therefore reading volume is really where you need to go now that HFT is so prevalent....

 

Anyway I wish everyone the best of luck in the markets

 

PS Here's another 120 min chart. kinda illustrates what I've been saying.

Edited April 25, 2013 by steve46

[Enigmatics 10]

Okay a couple of things quickly

 

First, class is closed....for those who asked and did not get into the class I tried to suggest alternatives that might fit your needs, and for those who waited and didn't act ....I realize I am biased about this but opportunity DOES knock and in this case very softly...as is always the case, some few folks came to the door, most did not....

 

and in terms of the systematic approach posted here....couple of things for those do it yourselfers...first....I do trade using this as the general concept....and it works IF you understand that you have to wait patiently for price to over extend itself...that is where the real opportunity lies (in terms of timing, these days the best opportunities have been trading off the European open and holding into the US RTH open). Good luck with that

 

For those who need to trade the RTH hours, I found way to show folks how to read volume patterns....The process is simple (3 steps) and it is easier than reading the "footprint" software that you folk all saw when Predictor was posting here....and much easier than reading the tape (which is the way I was originally trained)....as it turns out, price is a lagging indicator (lol) and therefore reading volume is really where you need to go now that HFT is so prevalent....

 

Anyway I wish everyone the best of luck in the markets

 

PS Here's another 120 min chart. kinda illustrates what I've been saying.

 

Are you holding virtual classes or is it an actual physical class that people meet you in person at?

[steve46 12]

I use "GoToMeeting" conferencing software, because typically my classes are 4 or less.

[Enigmatics 10]

I use "GoToMeeting" conferencing software, because typically my classes are 4 or less.

 

Awesome.

 

Wasn't sure before. Thanks for clearing it up in case something opens up in the future.

[steve46 12]

For those just beginning to review this information. Take some time to read the posts by DBPhoenix in this thread

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/money-management/16235-mean-reversion.html

 

Clearly if you want to make money, the tools you select have to match up with the market you trade.....the simplest examples are exchange traded currency markets where a simple moving average works (because those markets often produce sustained trending behavior) to indexes like the S&P, where price has (over a period of years) tended to produce cyclic behavior. Even when you get this part correct you still have to find a way to produce an entry signal that is reliable in spite of the inherent noise and the effects of HFT on liquidity. Thus far only a few people have posted anything that suggests they understand the process, and that (in my opinion) is too bad, because that's pretty much the difference between making money and "donating" it to those who have it figured out....Just read the first few pages...right away you notice two groups of people posting....those who object because I don't post a complete system (for their benefit) and those who state confidently that what IS posted won't work..

 

So what's the point...well first, unless you take the time to do your own research, you really can't judge whether a concept is viable (or usable)...Second....look carefully at your target market. In addition to DB's valuable comments, I wrote a thread ( about characterizing markets)..the obvious first step to take the time to review price history.....now what you DO WITH the information is another subject, but then that's why a skilled teacher/trader is so important to those who want to learn the business..

Edited April 28, 2013 by steve46

[onesmith 10]

Has anyone found anything articulatably tangible within steve46's teachings? That consistently wins? More than it loses?

[DbPhoenix 42]

Has anyone found anything articulatably tangible within steve46's teachings? That consistently wins? More than it loses?

 

Well, as Steve says, "unless you take the time to do your own research, you really can't judge whether a concept is viable (or usable)." So instead of making unprompted and unnecessarily snarky remarks, why not read the thread and determine that for yourself since nothing that anyone says will enhance your understanding in the slightest?

[onesmith 10]

I have done the case studies to form conclusions based on fact. I'm not aware of ettiquette that requires I limit questions to when I am prompted. I accept your conclusions as satisfying your personal requirements that define fact. Far better be it that I ask an occasional question than state the facts. If my questions do not add value for you then that is not my concern.

 

My objective is to obtain answers to questions. Your efforts to redirect me have added additional understanding to things unrelated to my questions so I am both appreciative and disappointed in your reply.

[steve46 12]

In your opinion then, the fact that you appear incoherent should not prevent you from expressing yourself in the "word salad fashion" that we are seeing here?

 

I absolutely agree....go right ahead....perhaps there are other members taking similar medication....and coming from that point of view, you are probably making good sense....

 

and to DB and everyone else, the answer to the question that Onesmith poses is actually quite valuable...either way the response or lack of one provides a statement of sorts....

 

I have said this before but I think it bears restating.......it is characteristic of adult behavior to review data and make up your own mind....and characteristic of small children or adolescents that they will often survey others before offering their own opinion. For those who find themselves developmentally delayed I apologize if I have offended.

 

Best of luck to you...

Edited April 29, 2013 by steve46

[onesmith 10]

Anyone remember steve46's arrogant comments and attempt to demonstrate expertise in determining the best trading platform? Anyone think it's too funny (given that past historical record) that he's using a platform that obviously overwhelms him? Am I the only one that finds humor in him calling ON THE DOT in reference to a time based rule? .. given he posted his usual chart as proof of that prediction and there weren't any time references (of any kind) on the chart. And there's never been a dot on ANY of his charts at anytime .. ever.

 

Remember the red and green arrows used as a teaching aid awhile back? Not the red green buy sell Signal Arrows. The other arrows. Did anyone make the connection I did that he was so overwhelmed he couldn't simplify it to just color code the lines themselves? They were illustrative of red green qualities of the blue lines they were associated with. Off toward the right edge of his screen? He was using red green color coded arrows to differentiate blue lines that had a red bias from blue lines that had a green bias. Anyone that takes the time to verify the context will see how ridiculous that was. Anyone who reads the topic from beginning to end will understand all the little hoops he has to jump through to download external data, massage it in excel, which takes math skills btw. And leaves us with the circumstances where we have the success illustrated in the charts posted.

 

Anyone remember Steve46 posting about the significance of 46 and then after reconsidering the wisdom of that editing it out of his message? Has anyone who as observed him in the past, formed an opinion about his propensity to say things in the form of an emotional ouburst and then egularly reconsider and delete his comments? Anyone notice his more recent attempts to repress his emotions? Is there any significance in considering anyones ability to control their emotions? Is it probable someone prone to emotional responses is simultaneously (or at least during the same lifespan) likely to be successfully trading rule based logical trading methods?

[steve46 12]

Oh my....this goes past (way past) what might qualify as funny....I suggest you obtain some help ASAP.....I won't be participating in what looks like a significant emotional problem...We won't be communicating again...sorry.

[Patuca 13]

Has anyone found anything articulatably tangible within steve46's teachings? That consistently wins? More than it loses?

ummm no. Uh no. Afraid not...just try to get 20 characters so post will post.....

[onesmith 10]

Note to moderator.

 

If there's ever anything in a post that isn't true then it should stand forever as representative of the facts. My recent comments to this topic have limited scope and breadth in the sense that I'm not going over the same things over and over again. Whether what I say is true or false requires verfication but it makes no sense to delete stuff if it's false because that destroys the proof that it's false. This constant purge and repeat process management has favored is the reason TL is unable to attract users with the strength to continue to build upon facts. As Mitsubishi often says it's nearly time for Felton to come strolling back as if no proof remains to be refuted.

 

Deleting the historical record has never helped the victim of an untruth or the perpetrator of the untruth but it's definitely hurt everyone interested in building upon the truth. It's impossible to build upon what is true when the record of what is true and what is false is deleted.

 

My concern at the moment is steve46's efforts to self derail his own topic so that my comments will be deleted along with his. This is a common ploy of his to take his topics into the cabbage and then call foul. In the past management rationalized deleting posts that presented information others didn't have by saying the info was biased against the thread owner and they should be free to be left alone to make whatever claims they want to make on their threads without interference. While that sounds logical it has never worked. And it doesn't take into consideration the extenuating circumstances that exist at this moment where steve46 has spammed aproximately 10 other topics over the past 3 months dragging his class, an open house, and a bunch of other over the top near constant self promotion into nearly every topic he's posted to with the exception of maybe 3 recent topics where he's not achieved that as of yet.

 

The worst thing admin has done thus far in this area besides deleting the truth is to move the truth around and start new topics particularly for vendors and comments opposed to specific vendors. That's not fair to the vendor or those opposed to the vendor. And definitely makes it hard for anyone searching for the truth to recreate the actual events and determine the truth. If it's determined that this topic needs to exist in some other form then that choice should be made available to the individuals involved. Please suggest it to a vendor in the future rather than toss a portion of their thread into the commercial section and expect that to work with someone such as steve46 who has frequently indicated in the past a strong tendency to storm off in disgust while saying something along the lines of he won't be back. Sorry steve46, not my intention to draw attention to that aspect of you at this moment but it does help bring home the point that whatever management decides is likely to fail if it removes anyones choice to chose for themselves how they want to proceed in the future given constraints set by management. It is always preferrable to leave choices in the hands of those you expect to honor the rules of the constraints or act within the limits determined by their choices.

 

This took more words than I wanted but hopefully the spirit and intent is clear enough that I've succeeded. If management chooses correctly it's possible everyone will join in everywhere and build upon truth everywhere. If mgmt fails then truth will suffer because there's too much effort required to continualy start from where the last purge began and rebuild the truth management determined was inappropriate. There's an exception to everything. Personal data, name, address, phone # should be deleted unless that info is being placed in the public domain by the person who owns it.

Edited April 29, 2013 by onesmith

[MightyMouse 12]

Anyone remember Steve46 posting about the significance of 46 and then after reconsidering the wisdom of that editing it out of his message? Has anyone who as observed him in the past, formed an opinion about his propensity to say things in the form of an emotional ouburst and then egularly reconsider and delete his comments? Anyone notice his more recent attempts to repress his emotions? Is there any significance in considering anyones ability to control their emotions? Is it probable someone prone to emotional responses is simultaneously (or at least during the same lifespan) likely to be successfully trading rule based logical trading methods?

 

Onesmith, It is completely possible to have emotional outbursts and trade successfully.

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Has anyone found anything articulatably tangible within steve46's teachings? That consistently wins? More than it loses?

 

You'll have a hard time explicitly testing any of it, unless you have access to some special indicators that Steve has created (and to the best of my knowledge hasn't shared).

 

Nevertheless, the gist of what Steve says is reasonable enough - he doesn't generally spout the same tired claptrap that many vendors do - take the comment above that forex tends to undergo more sustained trending behaviour than indices, which tend to be more cyclical. Seems fair enough, doesn't it?

 

BlueHorseshoe

[DbPhoenix 42]

Sounds like somebody moved somebody's food dish.

[onesmith 10]

You'll have a hard time explicitly testing any of it, unless you have access to some special indicators that Steve has created (and to the best of my knowledge hasn't shared).

 

Nevertheless, the gist of what Steve says is reasonable enough - he doesn't generally spout the same tired claptrap that many vendors do - take the comment above that forex tends to undergo more sustained trending behaviour than indices, which tend to be more cyclical. Seems fair enough, doesn't it?

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

I remember your belief in the existence of proprietary IP but within the context of the contradictions that possibility is zero after nullifying the potential black swan event because outliers evolve toward extinction quicker in a darwinian environment than in other number sets. I am sincerely pleased when your're inspired regardless of the source. Anytime you're inspired you should pursue truth with zest.

[onesmith 10]

Onesmith, It is completely possible to have emotional outbursts and trade successfully.

 

Difficulty controling emotions contributes toward excluding success. It doesn't add to success. The probability of someone claiming to be a trader, particularly a rule based trader that has attained success, being unable to control their emotions fails the new car smell test. It's an indication of a failed trader or dog whose had his bowl moved.

 

This isn't an entirely abstract analysis.

 

Actual sample outbursts contain a common trait where the words "I am loving this" repeatedly occur during an elevated state commonly called a manic state. Steve46 places an extremely high value on attaining that state. It's his favorite state. He desires interaction that is able to trigger that state more than he desires anything else. Although it requires speculation to form that conclusion it's obvious indisputable truth.

Edited April 29, 2013 by onesmith

[MightyMouse 12]

Difficulty controling emotions contributes toward excluding success. It doesn't add to success. The probability of someone claiming to be a trader, particularly a rule based trader that has attained success, being unable to control their emotions fails the new car smell test. It's an indication of a failed trader or dog whose had his bowl moved.

 

This isn't an entirely abstract analysis.

 

Actual sample outbursts contain a common trait where the words "I am loving this" repeatedly occur during an elevated state commonly called a manic state. Steve46 places an extremely high value on attaining that state. It's his favorite state. He desires interaction that is able to trigger that state more than he desires anything else. Although it requires speculation to form that conclusion it's obvious indisputable truth.

 

Onesmith,

 

You have an image of what the mindset of a trader should be and it seems that being prone to emotional outbursts does not fit with your image. That is fine. I do want to change your mind. Consider that your image may not be exactly accurate of what a trader ought to be like.

 

Your diagnosis seems like you are 1-2 years off from being able to prescribe medication for related symptoms.

 

You have been around long enough. Sit back and enjoy.

 

MM

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

I am sincerely pleased when your're inspired regardless of the source.

 

Well . . . "inspired" is a strong word. I don't recall ever having been inspired by a post in Steve's thread . . .

 

BlueHorseshoe

[steve46 12]

As I have come to expect, the periodic silly senseless comments continue to appear

 

So to correct a couple of things as follows

 

First this is "basic" system....the concept is that in a market that is primarily cyclical in nature, it is wise to trade using a system that can measure the standard deviation of price movement from a basis point....that is what the many charts posted show....and in this case doing so "after the fact" is helpful to those who might contemplate incorporating that principle into their trading process. After 50 pages of examples, I assume one can SEE that the principle works. In addition I have mentioned (several times now) that there are opportunities for those willing to trade the overnight market, holding a position into the RTH open the next day...Ironically, in spite of the many examples posted, I had only one person interested in learning how to trade that time period....I interpret this as reflective of the human condition....clearly people want to have information and results "delivered" to them wrapped and tied with a pretty bow....and if it is inconvenient, they will not extend themselves in spite of the data (again about 50 pages) suggesting that there is money (significant money) to be made...

 

Item #2....as mentioned previously, one needs to add tools to this process to develop a complete system....The most obvious is a method of generating an entry and an exit. Based on the intake interviews with prospective students I decided to provide a way to do so using readily available tools found within most every charting package. I no longer teach students how to read the tape, because it requires skills and time that most do not have or do not wish to devote to that end....I do not use a "footprint" software or any other proprietary product, because ultimately I determined that these products do not offer a significant advantage.

I DO use a simplified method that allows students the flexibility to decide how to display data, and it offers them the ability to read and interpret volume patterns accurately within about 2 months....so far it is working very well....I am not able, nor am I willing to spend the time necessary to educate the public about this...I will however, try periodically to help small groups as before

 

and that brings me to the last item....As some may know I don't intend to develop a commercial business educating traders....the simple reason is that I cannot afford to do that. In my opinion, doing a good job of training new or struggling traders takes a significant amount of time and effort (as opposed to simply telling people when to buy or sell)....while successfully trading (if one has that skill) provides profit potential well above what one can expect to earn educating folks...its that simple...this is the reason why I teach small groups and it is one of the reasons why I have tried to develop a simplified approach that can be learned within a few months...

Edited April 29, 2013 by steve46

[onesmith 10]

As I have come to expect, the periodic silly senseless comments continue to appear

 

I see various pupose driven agendas. For instance your frequent claims there's always some nonsense going on here is easily correlated to events diminishing your status. The actual nonsense at those moments in time was perpetrated by you in your attempts to discredit the sources diminishing your status. Read your recent posts to me. I haven't said anything untrue about you. Why post obvious lies about me?

 

Have you ever considered saying to me (not me saying to you) .... "Sorry I made some mistakes. I understand I was wrong and it won't happen again." And after that humbly accepting if my friend Lefty from my trading office private messages me and politely asks me to elaborate on somethings he doesn't get... like mostly just stuff you're always claiming is senseless so whatever no worries ... and that could double the number of pages in this topic and fill a lot of others while the only control you would have over that would be to ask me what's up and if I felt YOU needed to apologize to me again. Maybe I'm mistaken and you haven't posted a bunch of lies about me and you're thinking we need to debate that. Otherwise here's one way to end this quickly, ... for now and perhaps forever if you rememeber this lesson which will be easy given your lies will stand forever next to the truth I've posted about you ..... as proof not necessarilly refuted but overcome by agreement that this lesson which definitely needed to be learned was finally deployed accepted and closed. Pick anything within any of your recent posts to me that is simply untrue and OWN IT. Own that it is a lie. Apologize. Admit your mistake and trust that I will forgive you.

Edited April 29, 2013 by onesmith

[DbPhoenix 42]

You are in serious need of having your medication adjusted.