Steve's Basic System for Retail Traders

[steve46 12]

Hello Steve46,

 

many thanks for the document.

 

for example on 26 Oct 2012, we have CME ES settlement at 1407.50, looking at Ivolatility.com, for SPX we have 1405 and 1410, which should we choose? 1405 ot 1410? shoud we round down or round up in such cases?

 

Best regards.

 

-zhao

 

Always choose the higher vol (round up)

[steve46 12]

Interesting for me is that towards the end of each ON session for the last 2 days, there has been a flurry of buying taking price to marked areas of interest on ES.

 

Just one man's opinion of course, but it seems someone is taking advantage of the abreviated session to make some extra money...It can't happen without the DAX market leading the way....

[robster970 10]

Just one man's opinion of course, but it seems someone is taking advantage of the abreviated session to make some extra money...It can't happen without the DAX market leading the way....

 

That was my feeling too. I watched it happen yesterday. I traded it today. Whilst US equity markets are out of action, I would imagine it is relatively easy to push the futures market around to ones advantage and make some $$

[steve46 12]

Were you to ask a professional how "easy" it is to push the market, he/she might have a different perspective...it requires significant capital...even when the attendance is down...

 

I think what you are seeing are European and Asian participants looking to preposition prior to the RTH open on Wednesday...that should become apparent this evening when London opens...

 

Good luck to everyone

[steve46 12]

Followup comment to the previous post

 

At this point, shortly after the London Open, we can see why there was buying near the close yesterday...people were indeed pre-positioning, if only to get setup for this open....

 

Earnings were known to be leaning toward the positive side, no significantly negative news on the Euro front...and relief that in the US, the damage from Hurricane "Sandy" although major is now for the most part over and recovery can begin...the natural tendency is to see a positive boost (I think)...from here...we'll see tomorrow..when RTH opens

 

Most importantly, during our time based checklist (we manage our time prior to the London open, by monitoring various elements of the market at.....

 

A.) 2300 hours B.) 2330 hours and c.) 2345 hours....at each "checkpoint" prior to the open, we look for valid signals to enter PRIOR to the open....If we see a legitimate signal we enter the trade....we call this strategy.. "pre-positioning"

 

This evening's entry is shown on the chart....the result.....another (almost) 10 NQ points and all that was required was about 45 min of prep and 30 minutes managing the position...

 

Rob, I think this relates to the question you brought up a couple of posts ago....

Edited October 31, 2012 by steve46

[steve46 12]

Here is the follow up to the previous chart....quite gratifying to see this one looking like it might reach 20 NQ points...

[steve46 12]

The blue rectangles are placed during the previous evening...

 

The arrows (next to the horizontal bars) show targets that we place on the chart between 5am and the Open.

 

To determine directional bias, we simply look at price action prior to the open...today is was clearly down....inside the Blue Rectangle we mark the open with a vertical line...when the market opens we show folks how to evaluate price action so that they can find high probability entries good for at least 5 NQ points...

 

Our risk/reward management is as follows

 

1. Our stoploss is 2 points

2. Our initial profit target is 2 points

3. Our second profit target is 5 points

4. Our third profit target is 10 points

5. For accounts of sufficient size and skill, we hold at least one contract to 20 NQ points

 

The system can be traded by accounts using as few as 2 contracts. For small accounts, a winning trade = $140 less commission....a losing trade = approximately $80 plus commission

 

Suggest automating the scale out process to insure that once an order is filled the stop loss (and the profit target(s) are honored...

 

I like it

[steve46 12]

Tonight is the first of my Globex (overnight market) classes...

 

In this class I show folks how to trade the overnight market....how to orient to the news, to pending reports, and to find the best entries (which happen to occur at specific times during the session).....

 

Finally I demonstrate how to organize so that you can trade the overnight market, and still have a life....

 

At the beginning of the process we focus on the London Open at Midnight (local time)

 

I list the preferred times for pre-positioning, and show students how to organize themselves so that they can focus at the critical times, thus avoiding the fatigue and boredom that is usually associated with trading...

 

This will be a brief class...about two (2) months duration in which time I expect that students will learn how to make enough so that they can see the potential of trading as a fulltime job..for those who acquire the skills and the discipline to do this properly, it means a chance to move themselves a step closer to a different kind of life.....

 

Good luck folks

Edited November 1, 2012 by steve46

[steve46 12]

Sleep deprived and heading off to bed as usual

 

The Globex session went about as expected....people need time to "get" the concept...

 

The overriding idea that a new trader has to learn is to find a "big picture" or framework that provides a consistent, reliable way to anticipate sizable moves and get positioned...

 

To do this you have to see it traded in front of you....I think that is the problem for folks looking for education and mentorship....there aren't many folks willing (and able) to do it....because we already make money (so why bother)....right....in other words there has to be another reason....

 

So here is the chart for today (last night & today).....as can be seen we focus on the opportunity provided by the distribution....once we see price moving along the lower part of the blue rectangle (displaying support or demand at that price level)....we look to get on because THAT is the level where we see the best odds (historically) for a significant move up.

 

We can't know that it will happen, but what we can know from our data acquisition is that when it DOES, it happens from this starting point.....so we position ourselves here and try to hold on (within reason)....tonight it worked out....the first (left most) green arrow is our initial or pre-market entry...that one was good for 2 and then 5 NQ points.

 

The next two green arrows show secondary entries as price retraced to that lower distribution boundary once again....as mentioned many times before...we take this retest because in our experience the second test is often where the significant moves start...and that is what happened tonight (into this morning) as price really took off....now of course we all have to sleep sometime, so the question is how long do you hold this position....for me...I know what the system can do...so the baseline trade is 2 and 5 = 7 NQ points....and then I am looking for 10 and 20....on a minimum 4 contracts.....and if you have sufficient capital....you hold one contract in order to capture the outlier trades where it runs (as it does this morning)....

 

and the right most arrow shows the entry a trader would have had, if he/she were simply trading the US open at 6:30am PST....again the entry rules are simple...you wait for price to test and close above or below the dist line....on the next open OR the next test of that line you enter...(yes there is some discretion involved)....this opportunity occcured at 6am so it is a pre-position entry....notice that it moves nicely away from that point giving the trader breathing room until the open at 6:30....the retrace is minimal...and if the trader has basic common sense, and is monitoring the broader market, he/she should be able to see the potential for a continuation move....you hold, you scale out, and you try to stay in long enough to see as much of that move as you can.....

 

Good night and good morning....

Edited November 1, 2012 by steve46

[steve46 12]

So tonight I posted in this thread

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/14467-discipline-enough-succeed.html

 

and I realized that I really don't have a lot more to say....once you find an edge, you have to somehow find the maturity, and the internal discipline to manage risk, to take the trades without hesitation, and control your emotions long enough for your edge to kick in and allow you to take profits. It really comes down to that....

 

I notice a couple of things....first, check out the threads...look at how many of them are from commercial vendors (Pristine, Felton, and now "Trading Academy").....can you figure out why....its because things are so bad for these folks that they have go out and beat the bushes looking for paying students.....and why are things "so bad"....? Just one man's opinion but I think that things are lean for these folks because the systems they teach don't work....at least not consistently enough for students to overcome expenses....and in this environment if you can't get a student quickly to the point where they can make a few bucks....well....they aren't going to keep paying you....

 

I've said this before but it bears repeating....people who know how to trade don't NEED to sell systems....indicators, mentorships, etc....because they make more money (and its less trouble) just trading it themselves...as mentioned there has to be another reason...for me....I wanted to be able say I gave a little bit back....I think I have done that....and now I am going to go back to my primary business (trading)...I'll check back periodically but I think I am done with this subject...

 

Good luck to everyone.

[steveh2009 10]

page 265 - "WHAT TO AVOID"

 

"There is one kind of exit that is designed to get rid of losses, but it totally goes against the golden rule of trading of cut your losses short and let your profit run. Instead, it produces large losses and small profits. This type of exit is one in which you enter the market with multiple contracts and then scale out with various exits...On a gut level, this sort of trading makes sense because you seem to be "insuring" your profits. But if you step back from this sort of exit and really study it, you'll see how dangerous this type of trading is.

 

What you are actually doing with this sort of exit is practicing reverse position sizing. You are making sure that you will have multiple positions when you take your largest losses...It's a perfect method for people with a strong bias to be right, but it doesn't optimize profits or even guarantee profits"

 

--- "Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom" by Van Tharp

 

Reading between the lines, Tharp is saying that this style of position management will force you to maintain a HIGHER winning pct because your long-term avg win will be LOWER than someone who trades all-in / all-out (due to the larger account beatings you took on the total losers and the trades which could not match the performance of the all-in / all-outer).

[steve46 12]

Heard it before...and here we are again..

 

as with all things in this business "what works" is what you test and prove to yourself......everyone in my classes (as I have said so many times before) is obliged to keep records to show whether the protocol works...that....and your bank account....are what matter most....not a paragraph in a book from a guy who doesn't trade (Tharp).

 

One final note...if Tharp did trade, he might discover that in a trending market (currencies for example) his advice is good...but in a market that tends to back & fill (like the S&P Futures)....it doesn't work that well....

 

Thanks for the wisdom.

Edited November 18, 2012 by steve46

[Seeker 11]

You see this passage says it goes against cutting losses and running winners, but that's not true from my perspective. The first target cuts losses. It's not a winner yet. With a stop of 2 points, target of 2 points, if the trader is good with entry, he will quite often hit his first target, it may then reverse and take out the stop. That then becomes a 2 point loss times 1/3 the position size, or a 2/3 point loss. That is cutting losses.

 

It is about average winner size, average loser size, winner%, loser%, not about where the first target is.

 

Of course if you start taking profits at areas that are all less than the stop, then that would be different. For me, the first target is often hit, and this cuts my losses, and helps keep the confidence to run the remaining parts of the trade as they should be managed. it may not be perfect emotionless trading, but it is realistic trading.

 

 

page 265 - "WHAT TO AVOID"

 

"There is one kind of exit that is designed to get rid of losses, but it totally goes against the golden rule of trading of cut your losses short and let your profit run. Instead, it produces large losses and small profits. This type of exit is one in which you enter the market with multiple contracts and then scale out with various exits...On a gut level, this sort of trading makes sense because you seem to be "insuring" your profits. But if you step back from this sort of exit and really study it, you'll see how dangerous this type of trading is.

 

What you are actually doing with this sort of exit is practicing reverse position sizing. You are making sure that you will have multiple positions when you take your largest losses...It's a perfect method for people with a strong bias to be right, but it doesn't optimize profits or even guarantee profits"

 

--- "Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom" by Van Tharp

 

Reading between the lines, Tharp is saying that this style of position management will force you to maintain a HIGHER winning pct because your long-term avg win will be LOWER than someone who trades all-in / all-out (due to the larger account beatings you took on the total losers and the trades which could not match the performance of the all-in / all-outer).

[rtg 10]

Heard it before...and here we are again..

 

as with all things in this business "what works" is what you test and prove to yourself......everyone in my classes (as I have said so many times before) is obliged to keep records to show whether the protocol works...that....and your bank account....are what matter most....not a paragraph in a book from a guy who doesn't trade (Tharp).

 

One final note...if Tharp did trade, he might discover that in a trending market (currencies for example) his advice is good...but in a market that tends to back & fill (like the S&P Futures)....it doesn't work that well....

 

Thanks for the wisdom.

 

 

Steve, I registered over here today to tell you that I independently developed my own method that is remarkably similar to your own. There are differences in time frame, triggers, etc but very similar nevertheless. I am still learning to master each contracts intricacies as to how entry, management and exit should work. I struggle with position management once I am in an profitable; i.e., maximizing profit. I have come to the conclusion that this is something I can only learn over time from trial and error. As long as I stay solvent, I am entirely OK with this since I am relatively new at this and have been at it only for about a year. Today's trade was to short s&p e-mini at 1387. I am not sure what my target is right now. maybe hold?

[obradovicmilica 10]

page 265 - "WHAT TO AVOID"

 

"There is one kind of exit that is designed to get rid of losses, but it totally goes against the golden rule of trading of cut your losses short and let your profit run. Instead, it produces large losses and small profits. This type of exit is one in which you enter the market with multiple contracts and then scale out with various exits...On a gut level, this sort of trading makes sense because you seem to be "insuring" your profits. But if you step back from this sort of exit and really study it, you'll see how dangerous this type of trading is.

 

What you are actually doing with this sort of exit is practicing reverse position sizing. You are making sure that you will have multiple positions when you take your largest losses...It's a perfect method for people with a strong bias to be right, but it doesn't optimize profits or even guarantee profits"

 

--- "Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom" by Van Tharp

 

Reading between the lines, Tharp is saying that this style of position management will force you to maintain a HIGHER winning pct because your long-term avg win will be LOWER than someone who trades all-in / all-out (due to the larger account beatings you took on the total losers and the trades which could not match the performance of the all-in / all-outer).

i am new here and i like to read your posts,i like the way you write

[TheNegotiator 13]

It's interesting when people say they don't like scaling out of positions. By scaling, you control your risk and also your upside potential. However, let me ask you (as in anyone who doesn't like scaling) how many trades you take where you are shown at least some profit only for it to move against you for a loss? Scaling out therefore helps turn(if done well) many losers into small losers, scratches or small winners. I think (and hope) it's quite clear why someone would want to achieve this.

 

Plus, two of the most psychologically painful scenarios with all-in all-out can be avoided by scaling out:-

 

1) Decent winner doesn't get to target. Say the ES shows you 4 points but you (in your almighty wisdom) believe it's going to get to 6 or 7 easily. It turns and hands you either a scratch or even a loser. Sickening.

 

2) Winner gets to within 1-3 ticks of your target. Let's call that target as above at +7 points. You don't scale or trail. You are fully loaded and maybe your original stop was something in the region of 2 points. So at market you can take 6.25 points. But you don't because you have a plan and you must stick to it. For 3 ticks, you are now risking 25 ticks. Madness right?

 

IMHO you need to have a plan to take something off at the very least when the risk is far greater than the potential reward.

 

I think the trouble is that people will argue about this one until they are blue in the face. The trick is to do what truly works for you. Back to the thread though...

[steve46 12]

I mentioned to the website owner today, that I simply don't have the time necessary to post anymore, sorry, but while I am here I wanted to offer an quick update..

 

I still use a calculated distribution to trade. I have changed however how I trade in that I no longer use short time frame charts...nowadays my decisions are made using daily & weekly to identify the dominant trend (or lack of one)...after that I base my entries on tests of key reference areas on 60 and 30 minute charts. Using this method I am often trading the overnight market (primarily the London Open) hoping to get a favorable entry that I can hold into the US (RTH) open and if I have the energy, I sometimes take the first "pop or drop" off the US open as well.

 

The result is that I trade less and hold my positions longer...and my risk exposure is about the same as when I was trading 5 minute (and sub 5 minute) charts. In the aggregate I have seen a substantial improvement with fewer trades, bigger winners and about the same size losses in every time period (months, weeks & days).

 

Attached please find today's chart

 

Good luck folks

Steve

[thalestrader 14]

I mentioned to the website owner today, that I simply don't have the time necessary to post anymore, sorry, but while I am here I wanted to offer an quick update..

 

I still use a calculated distribution to trade. I have changed however how I trade in that I no longer use short time frame charts...The result is that I trade less and hold my positions longer...and my risk exposure is about the same as when I was trading 5 minute (and sub 5 minute) charts. In the aggregate I have seen a substantial improvement with fewer trades, bigger winners and about the same size losses in every time period (months, weeks & days).

 

Attached please find today's chart

 

Good luck folks

Steve

 

Too bad you've given up. The changes to your trading outlined above are interesting, and I would think that many would find your insights useful to their own trading.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[DbPhoenix 42]

I came to the same conclusion myself recently after way too much time spent trying to explain how to daytrade to people who were nowhere near prepared to do it or in a position to execute it, i.e., people who are trying to trade while doing something else. Like working. So I too have switched to 30m, 60m, and daily bars.

[steve46 12]

I see that folks continue to review this thread....I have a few minutes and wanted to post this example.

 

As mentioned a while back I am still using this calculated distribution, but with longer time frame charts. This has several advantages. First, I know that my odds of success are better when I wait for price to test one of the boundaries of the distribution. This is especially true of the S&P futures. Secondly, I know from experience that if I put on fewer trades, but the trades I do take are higher quality entries, my expectancy is probably going to improve...and thats what has happened.

 

So the bottom line is I am taking higher quality entries, with about the same (slightly bigger stoploss), and I am able to hold longer, thus obtaining a significantly bigger win when I am on the right side of the market.

 

The attached chart shows todays market with 1st & 2nd standard deviation lines in place (I chose not to put the 3rd SD in today....As can be seen price tested to the upside providing a nice short entry last night just prior to the London (Europe) open, then came back down to test the previous session lines..what I like about this is that you can trade it with as few as two (2) contracts, taking one off early. You can hold the other one, (and be sleep deprived like me) or you can cash it in and get some sleep.

 

Good luck folks

Steve

[steve46 12]

Again no time for discussion, but this might help some folks Today's globex open...2nd standard distribution hits it right on the money. Using vol of 11.2

[steve46 12]

I am done for the day and wanted to make a correction to my previous post

 

I used the wrong volatility number to calc the distribution. As seen above....that distribution is calculated using 11.2.....unfortunately the correct number was 9.49....Attached please find the same chart using correct information...Sorry about the mixup....in my haste to get this done I made a mistake....

 

Today was an excellent example of how using the right tools can provide the edge a trader needs to make money. As with all things in this business, in order to make it work, you have to (step 1) recognize that the opportunity exists...that happens when the market reacts to the news about Cyprus banks and then (step 2) you have to know what it means when price tests down to the third standard deviation....(which should contain almost all price action within a time period)...the last step isn't easy, particularly for those trying to learn this on their own, but once you have step 1 and step 2, then its a matter of pulling the trigger, and having the confidence to hold on long enough to make a profit...how much profit depends on experience, education and each trader's ability to control their emotions while the market wiggles around.

[steve46 12]

Wish I had more time to say something about this. Arrows show entries at 1st standard deviation and again at a test of previous open

[steve46 12]

There are always lessons to learn from each market and each session. In this case the operative lesson is simple (literally)....about the only way to go is to A) let the market show where it has decided to go and then take a little piece out of each move or B) read the tape and learn how to get in at the extremes....otherwise most retail traders simply get chopped up or expenses bleed their accounts down to nothing.

[steve46 12]

Today was a very easy day if you were patient. price started out near the midpoint of the longer term chart and tested previous key reference areas repeatedly...for me the rule is "3 tests establishes S/R".....after that I read the tape and try to get on board in the direction of the primary trend...