A Question Concening Volume at Bid and Volume at Ask

[horace 10]

Traditional reasoning states price rises when buyers hit the Ask and prices fall when sellers hit the bid.

So how does price rise when the sellers at bid outweigh the buyers on the ask

The reverse also applies

 

Some of you market delta guys must know the answer. I think it is referred to as reverse delta

[Colonel B 10]

Traditional reasoning states price rises when buyers hit the Ask and prices fall when sellers hit the bid.

So how does price rise when the sellers at bid outweigh the buyers on the ask

The reverse also applies

 

Some of you market delta guys must know the answer. I think it is referred to as reverse delta

 

Genius question. You are close but you miss the perspective of the pit. A couple of things.

 

First there is no such thing as more buyers then sellers. Or there is no such thing as more sellers then buyers. This is a huge misconception. There is no debating this there is no arguing this. In order for a trade to happen you need to have a buyer and a seller "trade." In order for a buyer to get filled you need to have a seller sell to him or else he wont get filled.

 

With that being said all buyers and sellers ARE NOT created equal. What you are keying into is aggressive buyers and aggressive sellers. There is a difference in aggressive buyers and resting buyers and aggressive sellers and resting sellers. The aggressive buyers and sellers act a certain way and the resting guys act a certain way.

 

Here is an example. Lets say we are trading at 50s on the ES. And lets say there is no one trading at 50s right now but there are orders resting at 75s and at 25s. There are sellers at 75 and buyers at 25. If no one buys up or sells down then price wont go any where. This is called "having your foot on the bag." In order for price to go one way or another 1 of 2 things need to happen. Sellers have to get aggressive and sell down and sell it for 25 instead of 75 and have to take out every one at 25. Once every one is taken out at that price then price moves down. Also then inverse for it to move up. If buyers at 25 decide to get aggressive and buy it at 75 and take out every one at 75 then price moves up. The other way is for a bunch of new buyers or sellers(not the ones at the resting price) to get aggressive and come in and take out the resting orders.

 

Now with that understanding you cant ever know how many orders are resting or how many are at a certain area. But what you can know is how many traded there and how aggressive meaning how many were lifted or hit after the fact. So when you look at a bid/ask footprint or what ever you have you cant see the the first half you can only see the last half and you have to put the first part together yourself.

 

Last example hopefully. Using our last example lets say you see buyers trading up to 75 and they are trying to lift it. And trying. And trying. And trying. And trying. What does this tell you? Tons of resistance. Tons of resting orders. If you see that it comes off and goes back to 25s and you see that more then a normal amount traded there then maybe you think short. Why? Well all those longs now are underwater and will turn to shorts when they go flat. Another possibility is that you have buyers buy up to 75s lift it and lift it and lift it and lift it. They clear it and price goes to .00 (ES trades in .25s) and you notice a more then average about traded there. That means buyers get really aggressive and be thinking rally. Why? Well all those shorts are now underwater and will turn into longs when they go flat. When stops are elected or triggered they are usually market orders and will be aggressive.

 

hopes this helps

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Traditional reasoning states price rises when buyers hit the Ask and prices fall when sellers hit the bid.

So how does price rise when the sellers at bid outweigh the buyers on the ask

The reverse also applies

 

Some of you market delta guys must know the answer. I think it is referred to as reverse delta

 

I'm not sure how accurately it is possible to gauge the reaction of price to volume further out, but at the time the orders are matched, prices trade at bid whenever a sell market is matched with a buy limit, and at ask whenever a buy market is matched with a sell limit.

 

What you're (possibly) not seeing if you are just looking at volume at bid and offer is the depth of the book - the number of buy orders traded at the ask might be very large compared to the number of sell orders traded at bid, but if the number of sell limits is enormous and keeps getting refreshed, the large number of buy market orders will not push price through those limits. Only once all the limits are exhausted can price trade at the next tier.

 

In other words, comparing volume at bid with volume at ask might not be that informative; try comparing volume at ask with depth of book at ask, and volume at bid with depth of book at bid.

 

Hope that helps - if it doesn't make sense then let me know!

 

BlueHorseshoe

[MightyMouse 12]

Traditional reasoning states price rises when buyers hit the Ask and prices fall when sellers hit the bid.

So how does price rise when the sellers at bid outweigh the buyers on the ask

The reverse also applies

 

Some of you market delta guys must know the answer. I think it is referred to as reverse delta

 

Can you be a little more clear about what you are asking? An example?

[xioxxio 10]

Volume at bids and offers is often fake. Volume usually dissapers as trades occur.

[Colonel B 10]

Volume at bids and offers is often fake. Volume usually dissapers as trades occur.

 

This is not true. Volume is after that fact and is measured after the trade has happened not and never before.

[xioxxio 10]

This is not true. Volume is after that fact and is measured after the trade has happened not and never before.

 

 

I understand the question referring to DOM volume.

[horace 10]

Excellent responses Colonel B and BHS.

 

Can you enlarge on the subject please especially if I am to look at the DOM

 

For example if price is stalling at a previous resistance line and has dropped

a couple of ticks but the ask/bid ratio is 60/40 then what am I to gather from

this and what should I be looking for on the DOM.

In the above example, I normally consider that the price has run out of steam and may turn and so I am waiting for the ask/bid ratio to drop under 50 along with the softening price.

 

But is there something more that I should be doing?

[Mistagear 10]

Horace,

IMHO

Bid/Ask volume on a DOM ladder IS NOT THE MARKET.

 

A market exists only when a trader crosses the Spread. It matters not how many Bids or Offers are positioned on either side of the Spread. What has to happen, is for a new seller prepared to sell below the spread or for a new buyer to pay higher than the spread.

The relative depth on either side can induce new trades to cross the spread, and in most liquid markets includes bids and offers which have been placed in the depth, only to try and influence general perception of strength or weakness.

 

If you think about it, sellers are always the controllers of market price.

eg. if last price traded was $10.00

where the next lowest holder prepared to sell his parcel is at $15, what happens?... nothing happens.

if a buyer appears at $12.00 and still no sellers below $15.. nothing happens.

Nothing happening continues until someone is prepared to cross the spread, either a new buyers steps up to pay the $15 ask or a new seller is prepared to accept the bid.

 

Why I say sellers control the market, if last sale was $10 and no bids exist above $5, the price does not automatically drop. Last price remains at $10.

Price heads to the lowest price where sellers exist. When all sellers are exhausted at a particular level, price can not fall further. Usually this creates a buying rush once bidders realise there is no chance to fill their orders at any lower level.

When price has been rising and suddenly there are no more buyers prepared to cross the spread, price will only drop if new sellers enter the market by crossing the spread to sell lower.

[Cruiser 10]

The simple answer to the original question is that there are huge institutional traders who control huge volume and have lightning quick sophisticated systems. They are able to get huge orders and volume into, and out of, the order book quicker than it can be reflected in the ladder. They have the power in some cases to do this with enough volume and speed to move the price, within reason, to meet their needs.

 

Also, as one person indicated above the ladder, or order book, reflect orders at a given price or what we'd call limit orders. They do not reflect market orders which are basically acceptance of an existing bid or offer or, if all the bids/offers are used up by a part of a market order, the next bid or offer.

[horace 10]

The simple answer to the original question is that there are huge institutional traders who control huge volume and have lightning quick sophisticated systems. They are able to get huge orders and volume into, and out of, the order book quicker than it can be reflected in the ladder. They have the power in some cases to do this with enough volume and speed to move the price, within reason, to meet their needs.

 

Also, as one person indicated above the ladder, or order book, reflect orders at a given price or what we'd call limit orders. They do not reflect market orders which are basically acceptance of an existing bid or offer or, if all the bids/offers are used up by a part of a market order, the next bid or offer.

 

Thanks Cruiser,

 

I understand the difference between market orders and limit orders, but can you expand more on the value (if any) of using the ask-bid ratio in day trading.

 

If you believe that the ratio has value, could you explain it please.

[Colonel B 10]

Thanks Cruiser,

 

I understand the difference between market orders and limit orders, but can you expand more on the value (if any) of using the ask-bid ratio in day trading.

 

If you believe that the ratio has value, could you explain it please.

 

 

Well simply put if you want to trade like a prop shop then use the divergence in ratio.

[SunTrader 10]

I understand the question referring to DOM volume.

 

Bid and ask size, not volume.

 

Most have a histogram showing volume at price, though not at bid/ask levels.

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Can you enlarge on the subject please especially if I am to look at the DOM

 

Hi Horace,

 

Just to be clear - I can't offer you any advice at all about what you should do with any of this information as I don't daytrade and have never applied any of it. If and how you incorporate information about liquidity into your strategy is entirely up to you.

 

Rather, I was just offering an answer to your original question about how price can move counter to bid:ask volume ratio.

 

Personally, I wouldn't be inclined to look at this information on the DOM. I would get an algorithm to look at it - it will be a lot quicker, won't get tired, bored, or emotional, and won't make clumsy mistakes. Such an algorithm might have four inputs: bidsize, asksize, volume at bid, volume at ask . . . depending on what you wanted to achieve.

 

Others on here such as MightyMouse probably wouldn't agree with that last paragraph, as the appraoch a trader takes will be based on that individual's ability to process information without relying on computers etc.

 

Hope that helps.

 

BlueHorseshoe

[Predictor 11]

First, let's be clear what you are asking because there are a few scenarios. Let's take the first scenario where there are imbalances in the book. Let's imagine there 500 offered, 300 bid, and the market ticks up.

 

First, supply/demand is not a fixed value but a curve. If a trader is offering 500 above the market then they are implicitly stating that they believe the market will move UP to their limit order. They may be bullish and have an open position or be bearish but price sensitive. So, there is different supply/demand for each price level and this also can change rapidly.

 

A second explanation is that the buyers were more aggressive or more urgent to get filled. This could be because they anticipate the market to move up or because they are forced to close short positions (stop losses).

 

That covers the first scenario. If you are referring to orders transacted at market then there are reasons for that too. These are the sorts of scenarios that I study and reviewed closely in my course materials and won't go into too much detail at this time.

 

But, basically, imagine a group of day traders short aggressively. There is always a trader(s) on the other side. In this case, an institution is sitting on the other side with a limit order (which they like to use). These aggressive traders have now created a hidden demand in the form of open interest stop orders just above their entries. All it takes is for the institution to move the price a few ticks to trigger a short covering rally.

 

There is a third scenario, as well. In this case, a seller starts to transact against a liquidity provider. The liquidity provider monitors the rate of the transactions and adjust his book (lower) and so the price drops. As soon as the selling abates, he figures it is safe to offer liquidity again, and he refills his orders causing the market to splash/pop back to where it was to start with.

Edited August 16, 2012 by Predictor

[horace 10]

I like this thread because it is driven by people who have an understanding of ask-bid and as a result I know more about the subject than I did yesterday and I thank you for that.

 

I have a little understanding of ES intraday but no understanding of say stocks Fx etc so can I ask that we keep this in mind when making posts.

 

My life at the moment is simple and I don't want to ruin this, but I am always open to ways of fine tuning and ask-bid may fall into this category.

Here is what I do and it is simple.

When ES is rising on the TF greater than my trading frame, I wait for a pullback and then enter on rising momentum when the price breaks out of the pullback/congestion.

Also, I dredge up the supply /demand zones and these add weight to the pullbacks as price enters these zones.

Given that a lot of traders are doing the same thing, I wonder if better knowledge of ask-bid on my part would give me an edge or just give me a headache.

There is an intuitive component to this simple form of trading, in that the more you practice it, the more you can smell trouble (or lack of it)

 

That is why I started this thread because there are a bunch of you guys out there who are miles ahead of me in your knowledge of ask-bid and the DOM and you seem happy to share it.

 

BHS is there an algo available for what you are suggesting that reads dtn IQ data

 

thanks

[zdo 20]

But is there something more that I should be doing?

Have you really backtested moment to moment reliability of ask/bid ratio to price movement?

Bluntly - applied generally across a very large sample of ES tick data, it has a near random ( ie near meaningless) relationship

… recently ran basically same tests against some 2012 data to see if anything had changed since a few months after that data stream first became widely available realtime – essentially same results...

..also, testing results don’t change very much at all when restricted to when price is at important SR’s either...

 

… not to say there aren’t any setups…there are isolated, very condition specific, situations where BA ratio imbalances are good … for a few ticks

…ie (in my experience) none of these setups are worth watching and waiting for ‘with the eyes’.

... this space was 'filled' with bots a while back... they've moved on now... so, imo, it may have recaptured some niche automation potential ...

[horace 10]

Have you really backtested moment to moment reliability of ask/bid ratio to price movement?

Bluntly - applied generally across a very large sample of ES tick data, it has a near random ( ie near meaningless) relationship

… recently ran basically same tests against some 2012 data to see if anything had changed since a few months after that data stream first became widely available realtime – essentially same results...

..also, testing results don’t change very much at all when restricted to when price is at important SR’s either...

 

… not to say there aren’t any setups…there are isolated, very condition specific, situations where BA ratio imbalances are good … for a few ticks

…ie (in my experience) none of these setups are worth watching and waiting for ‘with the eyes’.

... this space was 'filled' with bots a while back... they've moved on now... so, imo, it may have recaptured some niche automation potential ...

 

ZDO

 

Can you describe the tests you ran and the results you found as they would be helpful to me.

thanks

[Colonel B 10]

Ok there are just a few misconceptions that have been posted here that should be cleared up for the sake of future viewers and the ones asking questions.

 

#1 Volume = number of contracts traded. When the NYSE or the CME releases the amount of volume they are releasing how much traded. When you are looking at volume data at a certain price you are looking at how many got filled at that price. The stuff you see on the ladder isn't considered 'volume.' You might be able to get a tip off if you see 5,000 sitting right above you. But some one could pull that really quick before it gets filled. 5,000 on the offer after the fact is something else. If you were take all the volume traded and arrange it you would get a profile. This is called "volume profile."

 

#2 If you just look at the bid/ask and don't have some way to arrange the data its meaning less. Too small of a time frame you wont see volume from big buyers or sellers or stops getting hit. To big of a time frame and you end up with 1 candle of all the volume of the day. If you have some sort of support/ resistance levels that you came up with and use the bid/ask against it you might not get the usefulness that you are looking for. Its possible that your levels are not really levels or just short term traders are trading your levels. You really need to couple it with something else then just use it on your own.

 

#3 The queue. The bid/ask should have a queue. This is something you should be watching as well that no one has mentioned yet. This is something you cant back test like so many people love to do. You need to watch the queue. You need to see what is waiting to get filled and if they are getting absorbed.

 

#4 The main problem I am seeing in just the last 4 days of posting is that the retail market is full of people who don't think or trade like traders. Its not there fault. They haven't seen the inside of any exchange. They are inventors. Most have unreasonably low expectations on what they should be making. With that being said its not meant to offend anyone but to point out that if you apply the same thinking to this as others apply to MAs, MACDs, and other lagging indicators then you will spend a ton of time trying different variables and getting mixed results.

[addchild 10]

Traditional reasoning states price rises when buyers hit the Ask and prices fall when sellers hit the bid.

So how does price rise when the sellers at bid outweigh the buyers on the ask

The reverse also applies

 

Some of you market delta guys must know the answer. I think it is referred to as reverse delta

 

Horace,

 

Not sure what market your trading so you will have to take my opinion with a grain of salt.

 

The two pieces of information your missing is the market maker aspect, the entity that profits by collecting the spread and providing liquidity. Also the market is a continuous double auction.

 

In a continuous double auction price will always move to provide greatest utility. If more and more people want to sell above the current market, price will rise, reverse for buyers below market.

 

All a market maker needs to do to exploit this concept is remove some of the liquidity from either side of the market, and as price moves away from is initial position more orders will come in to cross the spread.

 

Hope that helps a little.

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Ok there are just a few misconceptions that have been posted here that should be cleared up for the sake of future viewers and the ones asking questions.

 

#3 The queue. The bid/ask should have a queue. This is something you should be watching as well that no one has mentioned yet. This is something you cant back test like so many people love to do. You need to watch the queue. You need to see what is waiting to get filled and if they are getting absorbed.

 

Colonel B,

 

If you go and read post #3 you'll see that I clearly talk about referencing the bid/ask volume against the queued orders (I even put it in bold).

 

The notion that you can't backtest this is also absolute rubbish - of course you can backtest it! Your data provider will provide a way to stream the queued orders at each price level. I know you probably think that 'once they're gone from the DOM they've vanished forever', but they haven't. They are there for you to analyse after the event, just like price or volume.

 

If you don't know what you're talking about, and also can't be bothered to read what other people have posted, then you should refrain from making authoratitive sounding statements on threads like this - you'll just cause more harm than good.

 

BlueHorseshoe

Edited August 21, 2012 by MadMarketScientist
language

[horace 10]

Horace,

 

Not sure what market your trading so you will have to take my opinion with a grain of salt.

The two pieces of information your missing is the market maker aspect, the entity that profits by collecting the spread and providing liquidity. Also the market is a continuous double auction.

In a continuous double auction price will always move to provide greatest utility. If more and more people want to sell above the current market, price will rise, reverse for buyers below market.

All a market maker needs to do to exploit this concept is remove some of the liquidity from either side of the market, and as price moves away from is initial position more orders will come in to cross the spread.

Hope that helps a little.

 

thanks add

 

I am referring to ES

Does your statement concerning removal of liquidity still apply

[addchild 10]

thanks add

 

I am referring to ES

Does your statement concerning removal of liquidity still apply

 

Yes it generally applies to all markets, as it is just part of the mechanics of a continuous double auction. But it is much harder to view in the orderbook for ES because of how many orders are in the book.

 

some DOMs will give you a total at the bottom of the bid column and another at the top of the offer column which makes it easier to view. (sierrachart is the first that comes to mind)

 

Keep in mind, even with this information, It won't be much help in your trading without a greater form of context.

[Colonel B 10]

Colonel B,

 

If you go and read post #3 you'll see that I clearly talk about referencing the bid/ask volume against the queued orders (I even put it in bold).

 

The notion that you can't backtest this is also absolute rubbish - of course you can backtest it! Your data provider will provide a way to stream the queued orders at each price level. I know you probably think that 'once they're gone from the DOM they've vanished forever', but they haven't. They are there for you to analyse after the event, just like price or volume.

 

If you don't know what you're talking about, and also can't be bothered to read what other people have posted, then you should refrain from making authoratitive sounding statements on threads like this - you'll just cause more harm than good.

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

well the good thing about the internet is that this can all easily be dispelled with some common sense.

 

Common sense first:

 

The reason why you can't back test bid/ask is simple. If you have ever looked at a footprint chart you would of figured this out quickly. The main reason why you cant back test this stuff accurately is because when the information comes the first time to you it will sometimes have information missing. This is due to the fact that no one here is on the floor above the exchange. If you have a business class internet connection you can still have packets missing. This has to do with the fact that the internet isn't perfect and problems happen every day. I have seen it where 200-400 was missing only to be refreshed after the fact because of imperfect data or lag coming through. Now if you have missing information then of course its going to affect what you do at that particular time. Now I bet when you come home from your other job that isn't trading you jump onto your comp and replay the day and think to yourself that it is the same thing. But it is not the same. Why? The problem is that when you replay it all the information is there. If you have a good broker (meaning you are still most likely using a broker feed) then all the packets should still be there right where they are suppose to be. You are probably thinking that its fine because you have been trading in sim in replayed markets for so long and making progress after all these years. I bet you don't even trade with a footprint so its kind of funny you implying I don't know what Im talking about. But anyway.

 

Volume is not the stuff on the ladder. Volume is the amount traded or the contracts traded. You can simply go check for yourself on the CME websight. Here is the link Daily Exchange Volume and Open Interest . Just copy and paste that into your browser or click the link. After you do that you can hover your mouse over the blue "volume" and get a definition. Here is the definition If you cant click it ill post if for you "The number in this column represents the number of contracts traded on the selected date for all CME Group venues (Globex, Open Outcry,ClearPort/PNT, and all other executions)" The numbers on the ladder are advertisements or orders advertising to get filled.

 

The queue isn't the orders on the ladder. Its not orders on the DOM either (if you call a ladder a dome).

 

If you go and read post #2 you'll see that I clearly didn't mention volume that was getting filled at the market price and only referenced the aggressive buyers and sellers that were filled. Nothing about advertised price on the ladder either. The queue is the orders that are coming in that are not aggressive. They are already filled so it counts as volume but they are not aggressive. The reason why I mentioned this is because its important NOT to just look for aggressive buyers and sellers. You could have lots of sellers getting collected in a non-aggressive way that if you are only looking for aggressiveness you wont catch. What I was saying had nothing to do with the ladder. It looks like in your post you were talking about the ladder. Here is the link to the page so you can see what I use to see stuff coming in How can I plot the level I bid/ask size information on my multi-pane charts? What is the Bid/Ask Tool? : MarketDelta Support .

 

"you'll just cause more harm than good" oh ok. Are you mad bro? Why? Because maybe you didn't think I mentioned your post and gave you the credit you think you deserve or earned? Besides the repetition would be good and would just reinforce what you said. Are you mad because you don't think you will get credit or something for being the #3 posting and putting it in bold? None of the stuff I talked about had anything to do with what you said.

 

The fact of the matter is that if you are going to use this type of charting or trading its best used at the premarket and open of U.S. markets where volume is the highest. If you are looking at volume during the overnight sessions it is usually lower then the RTH. Any one who is serious about bid/ask should be concentrating on the plan they are going to employ and looking at volume coming in before and after the open instead of putting posts up at that time on a forum. Who knows maybe if you would follow this you could of made some sim money in the bonds or the ES or maybe even the 6E just this morning. Now when you get home from your other non-trading job and jump into sim just know that it would benefit you more to do all your sim work in the morning at the open. I know it will take away from your forum posting time but look at it this way. Anyone following in your footsteps wont have to take as long not making money as you have. If you are going to make money with this then you are best off getting up early and being ready before the open. Look at it like you are getting yourself prepared and getting into a habit that when you go live you will be ready to make money. So yea back testing is great for inventors but this is trading and so far the concepts I know are right on for being successful.

 

If you don't know what you're talking about, and also can't be bothered to read what other people have posted, then you should refrain from making authoritative sounding statements and go back to B school or the Bush league team.

[addchild 10]

 

Common sense first:

 

The reason why you can't back test bid/ask is simple.

 

The actual difference between historic and live data has become fairly negligible, Some historic outliers will exist because of repackaged data, but that's not anyone's actual problem.

 

The numbers on the ladder are advertisements or orders advertising to get filled.

 

Advertising works

 

The queue isn't the orders on the ladder. Its not orders on the DOM either (if you call a ladder a dome).

 

I'll admit that I'm a little confused by this, it's my understanding that orders in queue are orders waiting to be filled at either bid or offer, which are limit orders, which are in retail orderbook. (atleast in centralized markets). Care to explain?

 

If you go and read post #2 you'll see that I clearly didn't mention volume that was getting filled at the market price and only referenced the aggressive buyers and sellers that were filled. Nothing about advertised price on the ladder either. The queue is the orders that are coming in that are not aggressive. They are already filled so it counts as volume but they are not aggressive. The reason why I mentioned this is because its important NOT to just look for aggressive buyers and sellers. You could have lots of sellers getting collected in a non-aggressive way that if you are only looking for aggressiveness you wont catch. What I was saying had nothing to do with the ladder. It looks like in your post you were talking about the ladder. Here is the link to the page so you can see what I use to see stuff coming in How can I plot the level I bid/ask size information on my multi-pane charts? What is the Bid/Ask Tool? : MarketDelta Support .

 

Passive market participants provide liquidity, they essentially don't matter when you have markets with infinite potential liquidity(since we are talking about futures), if it doesn't cross the spread it doesn't matter. (imo)

 

 

 

The fact of the matter is that if you are going to use this type of charting or trading its best used at the premarket and open of U.S. markets where volume is the highest. If you are looking at volume during the overnight sessions it is usually lower then the RTH. Any one who is serious about bid/ask should be concentrating on the plan they are going to employ and looking at volume coming in before and after the open instead of putting posts up at that time on a forum. Who knows maybe if you would follow this you could of made some sim money in the bonds or the ES or maybe even the 6E just this morning. Now when you get home from your other non-trading job and jump into sim just know that it would benefit you more to do all your sim work in the morning at the open. I know it will take away from your forum posting time but look at it this way. Anyone following in your footsteps wont have to take as long not making money as you have. If you are going to make money with this then you are best off getting up early and being ready before the open. Look at it like you are getting yourself prepared and getting into a habit that when you go live you will be ready to make money. So yea back testing is great for inventors but this is trading and so far the concepts I know are right on for being successful.

 

1. If you normalize for the change in volume you can trade anytime if you have reasonable context.

 

2. No one made money trading ES this week. <-- not my opinion, just likely how much they made.

 

3. Since trading is like 80% waiting, posting on forums like traderslab and bmt most likely has a positive expectancy.