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GlassOnion

Are New Traders Who Are Successful Hated ?

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The list I am trading consists of active stocks and ETF's. I am looking for stocks that are gapping open, and my preference, for now, is given to those that gap higher.

 

Having read a good number of your posts yesterday and today, I would say that one of patterns I look for is similar to what you call a "hinge." Wyckoff's Studies in Tape Reading, by the way, is one of the books that I have been reading and re-reading. I am looking for small consolidations where I can take a position for the next move higher, while allowing for a loss cut level that is usually small relative to the potential profit should the move continue. I would say that I am using gaps to indicate that the supply/demand balance has tipped in favor of the buyer, and I then look for additional evidence that there are sufficient sellers trapped on the wrong side of that imbalance to sustain the move for a profit.

 

I don't take you as being harsh at all, and you are correct, feelings have nothing to do with it. Certainly a poor word choice on my part. As for data, my sample is regrettably small. Hence, my acknowledgent that revisions may be necessary as I gain experience, knowledge, and ability.

 

You don't say anything about your stats other than that you lack sufficient data, but perhaps this isn't the place to go into it. But you do appear to have at least put some thought into it, and that's a good start. I don't want to hijack the thread, but I do hope you've done your homework on gaps. It's been years since I traded stocks, but I remember that there are a number of different types, e.g., continuation, exhaustion, breakaway, island reversal, and possibly some others. Nowadays there's Google, which saves having to buy expensive books that are often of questionable value. There's also the library.

 

As for small samples and lack of data, find something with replay so that you can compact the experience you need into days and weeks instead of months and years. I'm not even going to try to make suggestions because its been a dozen years since I lived in that world, but surely there's something available at little or no cost.

 

Good luck.

 

Db

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Technically, it will be six months, with one down and five to go. I am confident that that shall be sufficient.

 

I'm a newbie at trading futures as well. I can tell you (call me if you like I tell you the same thing), make sure you have a plan and discipline well organized. If you have to, paper trade with your plan for a few months/weeks, to makes sure you on the right track.

 

Thats good you are confident and stayed scheduled. All I am saying don't use your real money first. I did that and I regret it.

 

And you read from Db posts. His method may or may not match what you are doing, but his experience has helped me ALOT. I don't understand why all these other guys giving Db a hard time, but for us newbies out here, its tuff with all the overhype stuff out here. Db has helped me alot with my planning and just chart work.

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I may have had it easier than most because I learned to trade before the internet and before candlesticks and, to a large extent, before indicators.The first book I read was How To Make Money In Stocks, most of which was "borrowed" from Wyckoff and Schabacker thru Neill and Edwards. Therefore, I had very little to unlearn.

 

Here is what I've been reading:

 

Understanding Wall Street, Jeffrey Little

 

Studies in Tape Reading, Richard Wyckoff

 

Tape Reading & Market Tactics, Humphrey B. Neil

 

In adition to these, the books I've read that I have kept to read again are Wyckoff's Stockmarket Technique, vol. 1 & 2, Stock Market Profits by Schabacker, How to Make Money in Stocks, by Wiliam O'Neil, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre, and How to Trade in Stocks by Jesse Livermore.

 

I am a voracious reader, often consuming one to two books per day, and I have read a number of other books over the last month that I have been selling back to Amazon (a form of loss cutting).

 

 

I sympathize with those who are trying to learn to trade these days because they think that the way things are are the way they've always been. They can't imagine trading without indicators and candles and "the book" and all the rest of it. The idea of trading from a chart with nothing on it but price is close to terrifying. But it helps to get to the central question: why does price go up and down? There's no shortage of message-board traders who've been at this for years who can't answer that question. And a not insignificant number of them are vendors:)

 

I have also spent a fair amount of time reading trading websites, blogs, and trading forums. I have found very few that added to my understanding in any beneficial way. I found some articles by a trader named Linda Raschke to be helpful, as well as some interviews with a trader named Dan Zanger. It is likely no accident that both refer to authors such as Wyckoff and Schabacker (Raschke) and William O'Neil (Zanger) as major influences.

 

One thought that struck me early on, and has continued to recur to me over my five weeks journey, is that many who speculate in the financial markets seem to be of a mind that it needs to be more complicated than it really needs to be. Of course, my having said that can easily, and likely will, and probably should be readily dismissed by those who think it a highly complicated and difficult business, as I am admittedly new to the business. I am realist enough to recognize that they may have the last laugh.

 

For now, I am pleased with my progress. I am confident. Maybe I am just lucky that my personality and my background have caused me to find affinity with certain authors and not others. I read several books that raised more questions in my mind than answers before I stumble upon Wyckoff. Studies in Tape Reading made perfect sense to me. It is likely my background - I am a self-employed tradesman who understands the difference between retail and wholesale, and the need at times to mark down inventory, sometimes below even wholesale cost, selling product at a small loss to avoid complete spoilage and a large loss in order to purge the shelves, so to speak, to make room for more salable goods.

 

On the other hand, I just finished a fairly recent book on technical analysis by an author who appears to be widely read and highly respected by professional traders (if the book jacket blurbs are to be believed) that was chock full of indicator studies. Far from making sense to me, I am baffled by it. That doesn't mean there are not others who are not only not baffled, but who also use these indicators to engage in profitable trading operations.

 

I do not dwell on the fact that I am unable to do what others do with ease. I have always been of the mind that I can do what anyone else can do so long as I am able to find my own way. Fortunately, it seems as though others have found my own way long before I ever was, and therefore, I simply need to follow those who blazed the trail before me.

 

Therefore, I had very little to unlearn.

 

I think this describes my situation as well.

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Does making a living mean living a decent lifestyle or just getting by?

It means either depending on who you ask.

 

Does the person live in the North East or does he live in Alabama?

 

I am sure someone can come along and "make a living" in 6 months. I doubt the individual could provide a decent lifestyle for his family as a 6 month trader if he has a family. So, making a living is going to mean one thing to some and another thing to others.

 

I cannot imagine that "making a living" means anything less than being able to provide for oneself and one's family at a level that allows not merely for sustenance and survival, but for living well. We may debate what "living well" with respect to financial means entails, but for most it would mean not only a table and food to put upon it, but a decent place in which to dwell, a well-funded retirement for yourself and your spouse and well-funded college savings programs for the children. And let's not forget piano and clarinet and trumpet lessons as well as photography classes and a golf coach for the young budding Tiger Woods.

 

When I speak of making a living at this business, I mean specifically generating an income sufficient to replace my current income so as to cause my family not a moment's change to the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed.

 

We do not live extravagantly, we have no debt other than the mortgage, we have retirement and college and emergency savings. I have funded two trading accounts which are not included in the aforementioned retirement/college/emergency savings.

 

Because I am a self-employed, the net profit from short term trading operations needed to maintain my lifestyle is substantially less than I require to achieve on my schedule C. Short term capital gains, while subject to one's normal income tax rate, are not subject the self-employment tax. Therefore, given my current situation, rather than a six figure net profit from business, I need about 36% more than the current US median household income of $51413, or about $70,000 net short term capital gains. Given my deductions, the size of my family, etc., this amount would leave me, after taxes, with about the same amount of cash to finance my family as I currently am able to keep from my earned income from self-employment.

 

Not a king's ransom, to be sure, not even a princely frog's, but that is the plateau level for me that will define whether or not I am or am not "making a living" from trading or whatever business I am engaged in for an income. I have five months to prove to myself that I can generate $70,000 on an annualized basis from my trading operations. It seems a reasonble goal.

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Growing from watching the markets (or sim trading) to making a steady income from trading is a journey that few who start become successful. But, if you are trading consistently in 6 months, GREAT! You made it to the first step of successful trading.

 

NOW Move forward, once you become consistent, understand that as the market changes you will need to learn to adjust and move with it, or you will be another 6 months down the road, wondering what happened. There is nothing you can buy or assimilate from someone else that will give you that knowledge. It comes with experience and you can't buy that.

 

Long term successful trading becomes an art that has little to do with who you are or what you know today. It is a journey that will always have you developing new skills and understanding new ways to approach the market.

 

JD

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all of your plans, your disclipline, your hours of watching the tape, will all be for nothing without my new E book . Just kidding but seriously systems dont work! a, " system can't tell what new numbers are comming out , a system cant tell if the leader of syria has just been assinated, every thing is so dynamic these days your brain must be the biggest indicator you have. Price and eagerness of participants to trade at a certain price at a certain time is key . Other than than that I dont kow what else to say. my E book will be available on 12/23/2012 at 11:59 pm.

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Here is what I've been reading...

 

You'll have no lack of people who will tell you that you can't do this, but I won't be one of them. I'm used to all the detractors who insist that it can't be done for no other reason than that they can't do it. They don't bother me anymore. If you wind up not being able to do it, you and your family are the only losers, so what the hell business is it of anyone else's?

 

Since you have found at least one soulmate in Wyckoff, you're welcome to make use of whatever resources are available in the Wyckoff Forum, including Wyckoff's course. Since W's focus was on stocks, you may find more of value in it than those of us who try to apply his principles to futures trading. You may also learn something from the experiences of others who've posted their work there.

 

Db

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You'll have no lack of people who will tell you that you can't do this, but I won't be one of them. I'm used to all the detractors who insist that it can't be done for no other reason than that they can't do it

 

Someone, perhaps more than one, referred to Jesse Livermore's frustration when he responded to the question of "how can I make some quick money in stocks," by saying no one would ask their surgeon or attorney "how can I make some quick money in medicine or law." He tells of the offense he felt. Afterall, he was someone who had spent a lifetime reading the ticker and studying price movements, how dare someone ask for a quick tip!

 

What he did not say in the same breath, and what those quoting him may have forgotten, is that it was only a matter of months after he had started as a quotation boy in a broker's office that he himself was able to read the tape quite well, amassing a fortune of "$1000" very quickly.

 

Technically, trading does not seem very difficult. Again, I do think that many of the more technical approaches using various indicators and candlesticks and bar studies are very difficult, and my hat is off to any and all who are able to use these for profit. For me, I will stick to price and volume.

 

From what I have browsed here and elsewhere, however, it seems to me that the difficulty most have with trading is not the technicals, whether they are using basic price and volume or more complex indicators and bar studies; rather, the problem seems to be that a lot of people struggle with what Livermore called fear and hope, which leads them to win small and lose big, when what is needed is the exact opposite.

 

I have given myself six months to do this. September through January will be the tell. If it doesn't work out, I'll move on to something else. I still have my business and I am still making an income. After twenty-six years, I am ready to retire from my current line. But I am still a youngish guy (I started in my line when I was eighteen) and I need to move on to something else. I think that this trading business is my next thing.

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All the world loves a winner!

 

But winners can sour that love ... by thinking they have a right to be aloof ... and have earned the right to be arrogant.

 

Traders who haven't yet crossed the line in the race would rather respect the winner who turns around after he crosses the line, and encourages them to continue on that little bit more.

 

Unfortunately (the Internet forum being a poor method communication) the way people come across can sometimes be misconstrued, and rankle a bit.

 

My view, in providing a response to the question posed by the OP, is that "new" traders who are (or who become) successful, would certainly NOT be hated. I don't know ANY new traders who became hated after reaching what might be called success.

 

But there have been, at times, a few traders on this forum, and another which shall remain unnamed, who could more correctly be described as "old" traders, who claim to be successful.

 

These too are not hated. But occasionally one of them will break ranks and pour contempt on those who are still struggling after 6 months ... and one day! I guess there is a bit of a bucketing reserved for these types, and they shouldn't be surprised when they cop a bit of effluent for their condescension.

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...

 

What he did not say in the same breath, and what those quoting him may have forgotten, is that it was only a matter of months after he had started as a quotation boy in a broker's office that he himself was able to read the tape quite well, amassing a fortune of "$1000" very quickly.

 

...

 

 

 

Yes, but that was in the bucket shops which did not take his orders anymore as they regularly lost money on him. Hence, he could not "make a living" based on this business model anymore and had to move to the real deal... the "regular" stock market... and there he failed many times and it took him years to figure out how he has to play the stock market... ... and that is one of the most successful traders of all time... though he failed even after making his millions...

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Yes, but that was in the bucket shops which did not take his orders anymore as they regularly lost money on him. Hence, he could not "make a living" based on this business model anymore and had to move to the real deal... the "regular" stock market... and there he failed many times and it took him years to figure out how he has to play the stock market... ... and that is one of the most successful traders of all time... though he failed even after making his millions...

 

Take care not to draw the wrong conclusions. Whether or not he was successful in the bucket shops, he did not learn how to make a living in six months. As for the multiple occasions when he lost what he made, those had to do with a lack of discipline more than a lack of knowledge or understanding.

 

Remember also that Livermore had nothing to draw on other than his own experience. Today there are virtually unlimited resources, including data archives. One can also manipulate time through replay.

 

Db

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...

 

As for the multiple occasions when he lost what he made, those had to do with a lack of discipline more than a lack of knowledge or understanding.

 

...

 

 

 

Sure, but then we have to discuss what we are talking about in this thread. OP mentioned "making a living"... To me, this requires definitely discipline in ones trading. If you are talking about knowledge or understanding, then I can teach anyone my method and the logic behind it in a day or a few days, depending on their previous knowledge on trading... but really "internalizing" (not the same as understanding) such method is a different thing to me.

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Sure, but then we have to discuss what we are talking about in this thread. OP mentioned "making a living"... To me, this requires definitely discipline in ones trading. If you are talking about knowledge or understanding, then I can teach anyone my method and the logic behind it in a day or a few days, depending on their previous knowledge on trading... but really "internalizing" (not the same as understanding) such method is a different thing to me.

 

Of course it requires discipline. That's why the Livermore example isn't necessarily pertinent.

 

Whether 40draws can accomplish his objective or not isn't particularly important. What is more important is that he's set a time limit for himself, which beats those who are at this for 3 or 5 or 10 years and still can't do better than breakeven. After six months, 40d will know whether he has the necessary discipline or not.

 

Db

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

Today there are virtually unlimited resources, including data archives.

Db

 

A fact that can either help or hinder, surely?

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

Yes, I agree with you Blue.

 

The smell of all those electronic $$$$ and the apparent unfettered freedom of a free range chicken attracts people who are not suited to trading at all and they pay the same ultimate price as the chicken.

 

And then there are people to whom Trading is a good match and as DbP points out if they learn what is important and learn to place to one side that which is not directly relevant, they will succeed.

Then there are those who are initially unsuited but refuse to quit and if they are prepared to make all the changes necessary that their challenge requires, then they will also succeed.... for these people the journey is longer, but maybe the taste of success is all the more sweeter.

I would never encourage a person to quit after six months. The Quitters will do that anyway.

Frankly I admire people who stick at a task and overcome the obstacles and grow into the challenges along the way.

These people can never lose no matter what their original goal may be.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

Today there are virtually unlimited resources, including data archives.

Db

 

A fact that can either help or hinder, surely?

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

Yes, I agree with you Blue.

 

The smell of all those electronic $$$$ and the apparent unfettered freedom of a free range chicken attracts people who are not suited to trading at all and they pay the same ultimate price as the chicken.

 

And then there are people to whom Trading is a good match and as DbP points out if they learn what is important and learn to place to one side that which is not directly relevant, they will succeed.

Then there are those who are initially unsuited but refuse to quit and if they are prepared to make all the changes necessary that their challenge requires, then they will also succeed.... for these people the journey is longer, but maybe the taste of success is all the more sweeter.

I would never encourage a person to quit after six months. The Quitters will do that anyway.

Frankly I admire people who stick at a task and overcome the obstacles and grow into the challenges along the way.

These people can never lose no matter what their original goal may be.

 

Hi John,

 

Thanks for the reply.

 

I don't really have an opinion on the point DB is making with regard to the time limits a trader should give themselves. But I do think that the wealth of indicators, books, courses, instruments to trade etc can be as much of an overwhelming hindrance as it can be a help.

 

A lot of the time sifting through the 'resources' that are available is like searching for a needle in a haystack.

 

Given what I know of DB's approach I would hazard a guess that he might agree with this. If there was just one market to trade futures on (just the ES, lets say), and nothing else, and there was absolutely no possibility of any outside input from 'gurus' etc, then learning to trade might actually be a whole lot easier.

 

Just a thought!

 

BlueHorseshoe

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Yes, I agree with you Blue.

 

The smell of all those electronic $$$$ and the apparent unfettered freedom of a free range chicken attracts people who are not suited to trading at all and they pay the same ultimate price as the chicken.

 

By "resources" I was referring to what is available to the serious student, not all the scams that are out there to trap the naive and stupid and lazy. Online books, online newspapers and magazines, free charting programs, etc. You know, "resources".

 

Of course, one could ignore all that and go to the library once a month for the S&P chart book and inbetweentimes seek advice from his full-commission broker.

 

Db

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By "resources" I was referring to what is available to the serious student, not all the scams that are out there to trap the naive and stupid and lazy. Online books, online newspapers and magazines, free charting programs, etc. You know, "resources".

 

Of course, one could ignore all that and go to the library once a month for the S&P chart book and inbetweentimes seek advice from his full-commission broker.

 

Db

 

 

Yes I quite agree DbP

But who is going to tell our fresh young student, exactly what is resource and what is a scam.

Is this going to be your job Db?

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I think it's time to go back to the OP:

 

I read a lot of stories on here about how people had to go through this long, torturous process to become successful at trading Forex. It's so common that it almost seems like there's a union mentality about the whole thing. You know, the whole "you gotta pay your dues" and "you gotta get crapped on a lot before being successful" type of thinking. You can see written in between the lines of what people post here.

 

If someone was successful right out of the gate, I have to wonder if they should just keep it to themselves. My guess is that those who have already made up their minds that nobody can go from zero to making a living at this game in 6 months would call someone a liar who decided to share their success after actually pulling it off. After all, it's natural human psychology to tear down what something that doesn't jive with one's pre-conceived notions than to challenge their one's own beliefs.

 

To which I replied:

 

Six months is new? If you don't have it in six months, you should probably look for something else.

 

Db

 

Since then, the respondents have divided themselves into two camps, more or less. There have been nearly 2700 views, yet only one person has shown any interest in the challenge posed -- perhaps unintentionally -- by the thread starter. There have been nearly 70 replies, and almost a quarter of them, I'm embarrassed to say, are mine.

 

Those who believe that one can't possibly learn to trade in six months are welcome to continue believing that. Who, after all, cares? But those who believe that it can be done really ought to get on with it in whatever way they think is best.

 

Db

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I think it's time to go back to the OP:

 

 

 

To which I replied:

Since then, the respondents have divided themselves into two camps, more or less. There have been nearly 2700 views, yet only one person has shown any interest in the challenge posed -- perhaps unintentionally -- by the thread starter. There have been nearly 70 replies, and almost a quarter of them, I'm embarrassed to say, are mine.

Those who believe that one can't possibly learn to trade in six months are welcome to continue believing that. Who, after all, cares? But those who believe that it can be done really ought to get on with it in whatever way they think is best.

Db

 

 

Yes of course I believe that a newcomer can meet the six month deadline.

I have not been a party to such an achievement but I hold the desire to succeed

in any person, as almost immeasurable.

 

What I do believe however is that the question of time/achievement in trading is too complex to be boiled down into two camps ....yes/no.

Since your insightful contributions account for almost a quarter of the posts, I imagine this subject to close to your heart and I admire that and I think that you do care.

 

I entered this game fifteen years ago with no experience of trading other than running a Forex book for my Companies and when I decided to switch to futures (after a couple of half decent cognacs) and reading a few books, I received a big surprise.

What I had read and what was happening were quite unrelated.

 

That is when I shut down my PC and thought the problem through.

It is after all a logical problem that requires a logical thoughtful approach.

What it demanded of me was more energy and commitment than I thought that a retired guy should give initially, but now it keeps me young.

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Though I like the idea of a dead line in order to have some pressure, it is also important that the goal one sets for him- or herself is somewhat realistic.

 

In addition, a newbie has - by definition - no knowledge about what is required for a trader in order to be able to make a living from trading. Hence, this goal is too abstract and not suitable for an aspiring trader to set a fixed time limit for achieving it. A better goal would be a process goal, e.g. to try to understand x different methodologies in y months or to work through 10 trading books in z months, etc.

 

Furthermore, one should always be careful who the person is who "sells" the idea that one can make a living in x months and what the interest of that person is.

 

Just my :2c:

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Whether 40draws can accomplish his objective or not isn't particularly important. What is more important is that he's set a time limit for himself, which beats those who are at this for 3 or 5 or 10 years and still can't do better than breakeven. After six months, 40d will know whether he has the necessary discipline or not.

 

Db

 

Exactly ... if I can't make a go at it in six months, why wouold I think things would be any different in six years?

 

Given the responses here, I have to wonder how many traders posting to trading forums really trade for a living. I would have thought that the response from a forum of profitable market operators would be more positive and less skeptical.

 

Consider the difference here compared to the the tone of Wyckoff's Studies in Tape Reading. While Wyckoff obviously knew that most members of the public who speculate do so poorly, he also makes it clear that if someone were to take the time to understand the how and why of price movement, and then to speculate according to the way the market in fact works, that it should neither be difficult nor take an interminably long time to acheive profitability.

 

Going to the first pages of Studies in Tape Reading, Wyckoff mentions a friend of his who had started trading over the same ticker with a trader named Joe Manning. In the beginning, they were both trading in 10 share lots. Years later, Joe Manning was trading hundreds of thousands of dollars, while Wyckoff's friend was still trading in 10 share lots.

 

In six months, I'll either be on my way to being a Joe Manning, or I'll be like Wyckoff's unnamed friend. If the former, then full steam ahead; and if the latter, I'll move on to something else.

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Though I like the idea of a dead line in order to have some pressure, it is also important that the goal one sets for him- or herself is somewhat realistic.

 

In addition, a newbie has - by definition - no knowledge about what is required for a trader in order to be able to make a living from trading. Hence, this goal is too abstract and not suitable for an aspiring trader to set a fixed time limit for achieving it. A better goal would be a process goal, e.g. to try to understand x different methodologies in y months or to work through 10 trading books in z months, etc.

 

Furthermore, one should always be careful who the person is who "sells" the idea that one can make a living in x months and what the interest of that person is.

 

Just my :2c:

 

Let me say first that I am not looking for a fight nor am I meaning any disrespect. I do have an opinion and point of view that is markedly different from the majority of opinions voiced in this thread, and I am simply trying to make that view plain.

 

1) The deadline is not about "pressure." The deadline is about not wasting time. It is a "get 'er done" deadline. If unable to get it done in six months, no use thinking the next six months would be any different.

 

2) Far from being "abstract," a goal of making a living is very concrete, so long as one knows what it really costs to finance one's living. There is nothing abstract about a goal of generating a minumum of $70K per year in short-term trading profits in order to fund one's existence.

 

3) I am now believe that the majority of trading forum posters are not funding their living from trading profits. My goal is to understand and to be ready, willing, and able to act upon price action well enough within six months so that I will be able to make the equivalent of 40 draws of $1750/draw over the course of any trailing 52 week period.

 

Your proposal that a better goal would be "to understand x different methodologies in y months or to work through 10 trading books in z months, etc." strikes me as what is probably wrong with those who seem to be churning themselves into nothing for what is apparently years upon years - they have been led to believe that they need to know everything before they can do anything, and as a result end up knowing nothing and, if able to act at all, do more harm to themselves than good.

 

4) For example, I have read 26 trading books in the last 5 weeks. I have found three to be worth studying, and five or six worth reserving for further study. The rest strike as a waste of my time. Why would I need to continue consuming trading books? And I do not mean that rhetorically: At some point, and fairly soon, enough has to be enough.

 

5) What good would understand "x different methodologies" do me? I would think I only need one.

 

Here's a question I'd pose to the community as a whole: Forget about trading for a living - who among us has ever taken any money out of their trading account that was profit, and not merely part of the initial funding, and then used those profits for anything, whether paying a bill, buying a bag a groceries, or indulging in a personal product purchase, or anything at all? And who has never withdrawn even one penny of profit, perhaps instead throwing good money after bad to keep the trading account open as they chase this apparently elusive goal of "trading for a living?"

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