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GlassOnion

Are New Traders Who Are Successful Hated ?

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  johnw said:
yes of course i believe that a newcomer can meet the six month deadline.

I have not been a party to such an achievement but i hold the desire to succeed

in any person, as almost immeasurable.

 

What i do believe however is that the question of time/achievement in trading is too complex to be boiled down into two camps ....yes/no.

Since your insightful contributions account for almost a quarter of the posts, i imagine this subject to close to your heart and i admire that and i think that you do care.

 

I entered this game fifteen years ago with no experience of trading other than running a forex book for my companies and when i decided to switch to futures (after a couple of half decent cognacs) and reading a few books, i received a big surprise.

[highlight red]what i had read and what was happening were quite unrelated.

that is when i shut down my pc and thought the problem through.

It is after all a logical problem that requires a logical thoughtful approach.

What it demanded of me was more energy and commitment than i thought that a retired guy should give initially, but now it keeps me young.

 

Dear John,

Wise words.

I think I will borrow them for a new signature.With permission

You sound like you and I went to different schools together.

kind regards

bobc

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  40draws said:

 

...

 

2) Far from being "abstract," a goal of making a living is very concrete, so long as one knows what it really costs to finance one's living. There is nothing abstract about a goal of generating a minumum of $70K per year in short-term trading profits in order to fund one's existence.

 

...

 

 

 

That's right, the goal itself is crystal clear. The requirements are not. I was referring to the requirements and "what it means" to achieve that goal. I was not clear in my wording. Sorry, my bad.

 

 

  40draws said:

 

...

 

5) What good would understand "x different methodologies" do me? I would think I only need one.

 

...

 

 

 

Yes, the problem is, you don't know which one. And you don't know whether you have to "invent" a methodology for yourself in order to achieve that goal (that includes also the intelligent tweaking of existing ones).

 

And that's also the point with reading many books, etc. You have to gain a lot of knowledge in order to be able to create a customized method which suits YOUR psychology.

 

 

Just think of the goal of becoming a surgeon or a pilot. Irrespective of the fact that you have to get degrees etc. in order to be able to work as one, no one expects that they have the abilities to work as one after only six months of studying. But so many people expect exactly that from trading.

 

If it helps, read "Traders" by Mark Fenton-O'Creevy, Nigel Nicholson, Emma Soane, and Paul Willman. It's a book about institutional traders, their mindset and the management of them. There you can read that starting traders have to learn for 6 months along experienced traders before being allowed to take their first trade and then only with strong supervision. And you can read also that trader managers state that it takes at least 2-3 years for their traders to be ready to trade completely on their own. They have to work with different experienced traders in order to see different trading styles.

 

And remember, that these are traders

 

1) who were smart enough to be recruited by the banks

 

2) who work in professional environments with many resources they can make use of

 

3) who are pointed into the right direction right from the start.

 

At least points 2) and 3) are not available for most retail traders.

 

In my opinion, the mindset, that making a living in trading is achievable easily is exactly the reason why most retail traders fail. This includes those who do not put enough time and effort into it, but also those who give up after six months as they could not reach their goal.

 

Anyway, I wish you good luck with your goal.

 

 

PS: I should note that I've underestimated trading as well and thought that it should be manageable to make a living after six to nine months... now I know better... at least for myself. I've needed about 17 months working full-time on my trading, which is still very fast from my current point of view. But the costs for this were several blown up trading accounts and a lot of pain I've went through (live trading right from the start). I sincerely wish anyone to achieve their goals faster and with much less pain.

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  karoshiman said:
PS: I should note that I've underestimated trading as well and thought that it should be manageable to make a living after six to nine months... now I know better... at least for myself. I've needed about 17 months working full-time on my trading, which is still very fast from my current point of view. But the costs for this were several blown up trading accounts and a lot of pain I've went through (live trading right from the start). I sincerely wish anyone to achieve their goals faster and with much less pain.

 

1) You have spent 17 months working full-time as a trader. Are you now supporting yourself financially from your trading profits, or are you drawingfrom savings or another source of income.

 

2) Why has it been so difficult for you?

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Hi 40draws,

 

It is Saturday and I imagine you are replaying trading charts.

I greatly admire your enthusiasm and I am not going to pollute your mind with my

opinion or my experiences, but I am going to help you on your way with two pieces of advice.

 

1 ..do not open any windows other than the price window

2 ..do not apply anything to the price window other than horizontal lines.

 

Also, I am going to throw in a huge bonus.

If at any time you ask me for my qualifications as a Trader, I shall ignore your question.

This means that I shall never lie to you, which is an enormous bonus on an open forum and especially this one.

 

So just to recap ... no indicators .. no windows other than price ... no lines, highlights or notations other than horizontal lines on your price window.

And no BS

 

goodluck and we will talk again in five months.

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  johnw said:
If at any time you ask me for my qualifications as a Trader, I shall ignore your question.

 

I haven't asked this of anyone, nor would I. Now, if you were to tell me that I couldn't possibly succeed in a mere six months, because you yourself spent seventeen months working full-time at becoming a trader, I might ask, for the sake of clarification, if you meant you had started 17 months ago and you are still working on it, i.e. seventeen months down and now you are working on month eighteen, or if you meant it took you seventeen months from the time you started on, for example, January 1, 2007 until you finally achieved profitability in May 2008, and that since that time you have been supporting yourself primarily as a trader. That would hardly be asking for your qualifications as a trader. That is merely asking you to make your meaning plain.

 

If you tell me you are a success, I'll take you at your word. I'm not one to ask a stranger to prove anything to me. I've gotten where I am by worrying about myself, and not what the other fella is doing. I do not care nor need to know whether you or anyone else are a successful trader or merely a fifteen year old pulling my chain. Given enough interaction, I trust I could figure it out on my own without the need to ask.

 

As for charts, mine are fairly bare bones affairs. My trades are short term - most being open and closed within the same trading session, while others are held for a few days. I do have a line struck at the current session's opening trade price and also at the prior day's closing price. I also write down yesterday's high and low using a lowly pencil and wide ruled paper in a 17 cent notebook. Other than that, any notes or annotations which I think may be helpful for review are drawn after the trade is closed using a separate screenshot edited in paint. In other words, the only lines on my chart in my charting software are yesterday's close and today's open. I also use volume, and that is plotted in a subpane of the main price window.

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the advert that appeared on this page ...

fxoro

 

Quick and easy way to trade big.....:doh:

 

40draws.....if you are wanting to just be patient, wait for the right trade setup and stick to that, then yes it can be done. It might not necessarily be scalable, it might be tough work sitting there waiting, waiting waiting, and you might not need a lot of money as margin to do it. It can all be done. Your aim is consistency.

The problem may be - can you do it. Can you sit and wait, can you focus for that setup and do nothing in the meantime, can you stand it when you lose money etc.

This is the hardest part IMHO and just one reason people are skeptical - good luck

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  40draws said:
I haven't asked this of anyone, nor would I. Now, if you were to tell me that I couldn't possibly succeed in a mere six months, ......................................................... In other words, the only lines on my chart in my charting software are yesterday's close and today's open. I also use volume, and that is plotted in a subpane of the main price window.

 

 

Excellent start 40draws.......

 

1 ... you don't owe me or anyone else an explanation of your actions or beliefs

2 ... you are here to learn and Learners ask questions .. what is your question?

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  40draws said:
1) You have spent 17 months working full-time as a trader. Are you now supporting yourself financially from your trading profits, or are you drawingfrom savings or another source of income.

 

2) Why has it been so difficult for you?

 

 

Yes, but I had to reduce my expenses considerably as my capital base suffered a lot during my 17 months "learning period", i.e. I was drawing from my savings during that time for living expenses and my trading.

 

But I have to say, that I have not yet proved to be able to make a living long-term as I am not yet profitable for years (see my earlier post). My approach has to prove itself in various phases of the market. Only then can I make a statement like this.

 

However, how long I or anybody else has needed to become profitable is irrelevant for someone else, as people and their requirements and possibilities differ very probably. All I've wanted to say is that one should be realistic in setting goals in trading and don't underestimate what it takes in time and effort to get where you want to be.

 

It has been difficult for me, as it took me some time to build a customized method which meets my risk/return parameters, in which I believe 100% and which suits my personality best. There is so much BS out there, as you have already mentioned. And in fact, like BlueHorseShoe mentioned, in today's world, there is actually too much information, so that it's difficult for a newbie to distinguish good from bad.

 

What we have not yet discussed is the requirements one has for making a living. If you can make a living by getting a return of 8% p.a. then you can achieve your goal maybe easier/faster than someone who needs a return of 20-30% p.a. or even more on a consistent basis to be able to make a living. That should be considered as well.

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  karoshiman said:
...it took me some time to build a customized method which meets my risk/return parameters, in which I believe 100% and which suits my personality best...

 

That statement of yours indicates to me that your experience and your approach to this businesss, and probably your view of life generally, is vastly different from my own. With the exception of risk, the rest is foreign to the manner in which I have approached and structured my study. Such a difference likely will lead to a vastly different result.

 

I'm not passing judgement. I am just noting a difference between us that strongly implies to me that if it were possible to graph your journey and my own from a common temporal beginning, our paths would almost immediately, and necessarily, diverge.

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  bobcollett said:
Hi 40draws

Joined August 2012

One months experience

Read all the books

Slick answer after slicker answer

Its a con.

I will say no more

bobc

 

You never know whether I am who I say I am or a fifteen year old pulling your chain. However, I'm as unclear on the nature of the "con" with which you are apparently charging me as I am with the source of your "flabbergastedness" that resulted from one of my earlier posts. If I am not mistaken, you are also the one who said I was heaping disrespectful remarks on DbPhoenix. I insist that all of my exchanges with DbPhoenix have been nothing short of respectful. I do not understand your attitude toward me. It is one thing to disagree with me, and if you think me on a fool's errand, so be it. You're entitled to your opinion. But to call me a con borders upon hostility.

 

"Joined August 2012, one months experience": As I said, I'm technically now in week six, and we all have to start somewhere. My interest in the markets had previously been limited to more or less blindly investing in mutual funds in my Keough. A chance viewing of an infomercial for a day trading school as I flipped through the tv channels early, early one morning was the catalyst that started my investigation of the possibility of trading actively for an income. I actually called that school that day. The experience of that phone call led me to decide that I needed to learn as much as I could on my own first, as my sense from talking to their "admission counselor" was that he was a con.

 

"Read all the books": I've read twenty-six books, or about 4.25/week. Most of these are pretty quick reads, well-written, and thus easily and quickly understood. If a book was not easily understood, if it was poorly written, or if I found myself struggling to make sense of it, I closed it and never looked back. At least six books fit that criteria, so technically I read twenty or so books, and started but failed to finish six or so. I'm about done with the books, however. I am awaiting a twenty-seventh, Techniques of Tape Reading, based upon a review of this work by DbPhoenix. It should be here Monday evening, and I would estimate that I will have finished a first read no later than Wednesday before I lay me down to bed.

 

"Slick answer after slick answer": I'm flabbergasted. Well, perhaps not flabbergasted, but at least slightly bewildered.

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  40draws said:
... ... "Read all the books": I've read twenty-six books, or about 4.25/week. Most of these are pretty quick reads, well-written, and thus easily and quickly understood. If a book was not easily understood, if it was poorly written, or if I found myself struggling to make sense of it, I closed it and never looked back. At least six books fit that criteria, so technically I read twenty or so books, and started but failed to finish six or so. I'm about done with the books, however. I am awaiting a twenty-seventh, Techniques of Tape Reading, ... ...

 

Would love to see a list of those books, including the six you didn't like. Any chance?

 

I have read 'Techniques of Tape Reading' which I found to be a disappointment as not really much in there about tape reading actually. Not much good anywhere on tape reading which is possibly due to fact that so many algos are playing games. What we need is a book on 'The games HFT algos play'. :)

 

Good luck with your quest. For what it's worth I do think you should set aside more than six months before deciding to continue or not. All depends on your goals of course, and you also need a lot of live experience in that time with real money to really know if you can do it.

 

Richard

Hong Kong

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  GlassOnion said:
I read a lot of stories on here about how people had to go through this long, torturous process to become successful at trading Forex. It's so common that it almost seems like there's a union mentality about the whole thing. You know, the whole "you gotta pay your dues" and "you gotta get crapped on a lot before being successful" type of thinking. You can see written in between the lines of what people post here.

 

If someone was successful right out of the gate, I have to wonder if they should just keep it to themselves. My guess is that those who have already made up their minds that nobody can go from zero to making a living at this game in 6 months would call someone a liar who decided to share their success after actually pulling it off. After all, it's natural human psychology to tear down what something that doesn't jive with one's pre-conceived notions than to challenge their one's own beliefs.

 

When I first responded to this discusion, I have to admit that I had not really read the author's initial post as thoughtfully or as literally as I should have. Instead, what sparked my attention and prompted me to participate was the phrase "from zero to making a living at this game in 6 months." I ignored the thrust of the question posed.

 

Had I read it thoughtfully, and actually answered the question, I would have said something along the lines that "of course no one would hate someone for succeeding - after all, I take one person's success to indicate to me that my success is also possible." However, the orientation of many respondents seems to be the opposite: "I have been doing this for years, and I haven't been able to succeed, so how dare you think you might be able to do in six months what I have been unable to do in six years."

 

I have not made any claim to be making a living at the trading business. I simply said I was a new trader, and I was giving myself six months either to show myself this is a viable business for me or not. Given the tenor of most of the responses, the original author's suspicians have been proven to be well-founded.

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  40draws said:
I have found three to be worth studying, and five or six worth reserving for further study.

 

5) What good would understand "x different methodologies" do me? I would think I only need one.

 

Here's a question I'd pose to the community as a whole: Forget about trading for a living - who among us has ever taken any money out of their trading account that was profit, and not merely part of the initial funding, and then used those profits for anything, whether paying a bill, buying a bag a groceries, or indulging in a personal product purchase, or anything at all? And who has never withdrawn even one penny of profit, perhaps instead throwing good money after bad to keep the trading account open as they chase this apparently elusive goal of "trading for a living?"

 

Thanks for feedback 40draw, I agree with you. One method for a newbie should well good enough. I am also learning price action, but mainly focus on my trading plan for now.

 

Do you mind sharing the three books to be worth studying?

 

I have never taken money out the account for profit as I just started trading future about 4 months ago actively.

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  karoshiman said:
That's right, the goal itself is crystal clear. The requirements are not. I was referring to the requirements and "what it means" to achieve that goal. I was not clear in my wording. Sorry, my bad.

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, the problem is, you don't know which one. And you don't know whether you have to "invent" a methodology for yourself in order to achieve that goal (that includes also the intelligent tweaking of existing ones).

 

And that's also the point with reading many books, etc. You have to gain a lot of knowledge in order to be able to create a customized method which suits YOUR psychology.

 

 

Just think of the goal of becoming a surgeon or a pilot. Irrespective of the fact that you have to get degrees etc. in order to be able to work as one, no one expects that they have the abilities to work as one after only six months of studying. But so many people expect exactly that from trading.

 

If it helps, read "Traders" by Mark Fenton-O'Creevy, Nigel Nicholson, Emma Soane, and Paul Willman. It's a book about institutional traders, their mindset and the management of them. There you can read that starting traders have to learn for 6 months along experienced traders before being allowed to take their first trade and then only with strong supervision. And you can read also that trader managers state that it takes at least 2-3 years for their traders to be ready to trade completely on their own. They have to work with different experienced traders in order to see different trading styles.

 

And remember, that these are traders

 

1) who were smart enough to be recruited by the banks

 

2) who work in professional environments with many resources they can make use of

 

3) who are pointed into the right direction right from the start.

 

At least points 2) and 3) are not available for most retail traders.

 

In my opinion, the mindset, that making a living in trading is achievable easily is exactly the reason why most retail traders fail. This includes those who do not put enough time and effort into it, but also those who give up after six months as they could not reach their goal.

 

Anyway, I wish you good luck with your goal.

 

 

PS: I should note that I've underestimated trading as well and thought that it should be manageable to make a living after six to nine months... now I know better... at least for myself. I've needed about 17 months working full-time on my trading, which is still very fast from my current point of view. But the costs for this were several blown up trading accounts and a lot of pain I've went through (live trading right from the start). I sincerely wish anyone to achieve their goals faster and with much less pain.

 

This is a very good post to read.

 

I don't recommend to start something like trading and expect consistence in trading in 6 months. However, think of how far you come in 6 months. I think its all about having the right practice as Db mention to me. Because I wasted 3 months studying the wrong thing with all this indicator stuff when the data was right in my face. I then started trading live and I lost real money. I think back and that was silly. Now I trade sim until I my plan and structure is consistent and profitable.

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  goodoboy said:
Thanks for feedback 40draw, I agree with you. One method for a newbie should well good enough. I am also learning price action, but mainly focus on my trading plan for now.

 

Do you mind sharing the three books to be worth studying?

 

I have never taken money out the account for profit as I just started trading future about 4 months ago actively.

 

Hi goodoboy,

 

Here is a list I posted earlier:

 

  40draws said:
Here is what I've been reading:

 

Understanding Wall Street, Jeffrey Little

 

Studies in Tape Reading, Richard Wyckoff

 

Tape Reading & Market Tactics, Humphrey B. Neil

 

In adition to these, the books I've read that I have kept to read again are Wyckoff's Stockmarket Technique, vol. 1 & 2, Stock Market Profits by Schabacker, How to Make Money in Stocks, by Wiliam O'Neil, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre, and How to Trade in Stocks by Jesse Livermore.

 

The Jeffrey Little book is a basic textbook, e.g. what is a share of stock, how Wall Street works, the role of investment banks, etc.

 

The Wyckoff and Neil books are similar, in that both explain price movements in terms of the relationship between price and volume. Neil is not an advocate of day trading, whereas Wyckoff presents it as a potential way for someone to make a profession out of wall street operations alone. In adition to these two books, I found a website by a trader named Linda Raschke where she had a couple of articles, on on Tape Reading, that sort of helped point me in how to make a practical start with the Wyckoff and Neil method. I'll hunt down the links later and post them here so long as it would not violate the traderslaboratory rules. I'll send a PM to the moderator and ask first.

 

I am taking a small draw tomorrow from last week's activity. I have been trading using my smart phone, and I want to buy a lap top and set it up with mobile broadband. My current business is such that I am traveling about 90% of the workday which puts me out of the office for 100% of the trading session on most days. My business plan calls for all future trading related expenditures to be funded out of trading profits. This first draw will pay for a trading laptop, accessories (car charger, case, etc.), and mobile broadband service from September through January.

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  40draws said:
Hi goodoboy,

 

Here is a list I posted earlier:

 

 

 

The Jeffrey Little book is a basic textbook, e.g. what is a share of stock, how Wall Street works, the role of investment banks, etc.

 

The Wyckoff and Neil books are similar, in that both explain price movements in terms of the relationship between price and volume. Neil is not an advocate of day trading, whereas Wyckoff presents it as a potential way for someone to make a profession out of wall street operations alone. In adition to these two books, I found a website by a trader named Linda Raschke where she had a couple of articles, on on Tape Reading, that sort of helped point me in how to make a practical start with the Wyckoff and Neil method. I'll hunt down the links later and post them here so long as it would not violate the traderslaboratory rules. I'll send a PM to the moderator and ask first.

 

I am taking a small draw tomorrow from last week's activity. I have been trading using my smart phone, and I want to buy a lap top and set it up with mobile broadband. My current business is such that I am traveling about 90% of the workday which puts me out of the office for 100% of the trading session on most days. My business plan calls for all future trading related expenditures to be funded out of trading profits. This first draw will pay for a trading laptop, accessories (car charger, case, etc.), and mobile broadband service from September through January.

 

Thanks, you should trade ES futures. I trade it and I like it. Better than searching for stocks.

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If your a new trader and successful which statement is true?

 

1. Another trader is teaching & mentoring you

2. You are a new trader learning on your own & successful

 

If your new & successful however not learning from another trader I would say keep your mouth shut, get your ego in check because more than likely your a "flash in the pan" so to speak. A person with success early on without much training the odds are against you & I don't hate you because the market(s) need order flow (Thank you). I thank you because eventually you will be order flow.... :missy:

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  RichardHK said:
Would love to see a list of those books, including the six you didn't like. Any chance?

 

I did post and re-post a list of the ones I found to make sense to me. Of course, the fact that they make sense to someone who knew nothing six weeks ago, and may now only think he knows something, should give you or anyone pause in taking up a book or method on my recommendation.

 

I considered your request that I names the books I didn't like, and after some thought, I'd rather not say. After all, to be fair, posting those titles would imply that I was making a critical judgment on their value, and I am not qualified to say anything other than the books I've listed above "made sense" to me, while others I've not mentioned by name left me unclear, uneasy, unsure, at times a bit baffled, and at others completely confused. That likely says as much or more about me than it does about them.

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  Whidbey Island said:
If your a new trader and successful which statement is true?

 

1. Another trader is teaching & mentoring you

2. You are a new trader learning on your own & successful

 

If your new & successful however not learning from another trader I would say keep your mouth shut, get your ego in check because more than likely your a "flash in the pan" so to speak. A person with success early on without much training the odds are against you & I don't hate you because the market(s) need order flow (Thank you). I thank you because eventually you will be order flow.... :missy:

 

I assume you're directing this at me, and I don't know why, unless you're a trading mentor who sells mentoring and training services, and the idea of someone teaching himself to do this is bad for business.

 

Whatever the reason, you obviously have not read my posts. I am learning from other traders, primarily Richard Wyckoff and Humphrey Neill. Again, had you read my posts, then that is information you would have known.

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  RichardHK said:

What we need is a book on 'The games HFT algos play'. :)

 

You'll find something like that here:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/day-trading-scalping/13811-daytraders-do-you-know-your-enemy.html

 

I don't pretend to be any kind of an expert on these things - I'm just slowly trying to piece together a picture of how they operate within this thread.

 

BlueHorseshoe

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  40draws said:

 

I am taking a small draw tomorrow from last week's activity. I have been trading using my

smart phone, and I want to buy a lap top and set it up with mobile broadband. My current

business is such that I am traveling about 90% of the workday which puts me out of the

office for 100% of the trading session on most days. My business plan calls for all future

trading related expenditures to be funded out of trading profits. This first draw will pay for

a trading laptop, accessories (car charger, case, etc.), and mobile broadband service

from September through January.

I worry when I read something like the above.

 

Two things:

 

Years ago, when I was 18 yrs old, I bought a lottery ticket for $2. The draw yielded me a $20 prize ... $18 profit. This was in the late

1960's. My income was $36/week at that time, and so ... that early success in my gambling career started me on the path to near

ruin, as I attempted many times, and in many forms, to emulate that feat over and over.

 

You can read between the lines on that.

 

Secondly, you can not chase two rabbits - one of them is going to evade your efforts to trap them. Either your business is going to

suffer, or your trading is going to suffer, and if you have one, your family is going to suffer from having an absentee partner/dad.

 

Who is paying for your time, while you are out of the office, and attending to trading matters?

 

Yourself? Good.

Your boss? Hmmm.

 

If it's your boss, wouldn't you serve him/your conscience better by looking at your trading education in your own time?

Just a thought. I invite you to tell me to mind my own business, because this really is none of my concerns at all.

 

My message is to encourage you to persevere, and I congratulate you for having the insight to establish some sort of structure in

your approach. I would add a rider, that your time-frame for establishing success is very tight, putting more pressure on you than

you may realise. As the 6-month deadline approaches, you might need to extend that, if you are making measurable headway.

 

Further, you need to understand that you are embarking on a journey that potentially can destroy your family life, and estrange you

from many of the things you currently enjoy - including your health.

 

I am certain you have taken these issues into account, and my words are already redundant in your case. But trading is every

bit a full-time pursuit, in my experience, and if you want to have any quality of life outside of this occupation, it is likely that you

will eventually move to the higher time-frames, if you are not already working at that level.

 

Certainly I am no trader's shining light, but these are my observations.

 

Good luck with your journey, and thanks for sharing your vision and story.

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    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
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