Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

suby

Is the Price to Volume Relationship All You Really Need to Trade?

Recommended Posts

Hi guys,

 

I'm trying to develop a technical strategy to my trading and seem to be overwhelmed with all the different indicators...

 

Currently I use MACD, Price, and Volume....

 

Am I missing anything or is it naive to make calls on the Price to Volume relationship?

 

Would love some feedback from some of the pros

 

Thanks in advance!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi guys,

 

I'm trying to develop a technical strategy to my trading and seem to be overwhelmed with all the different indicators...

 

Currently I use MACD, Price, and Volume....

 

Am I missing anything or is it naive to make calls on the Price to Volume relationship?

 

Would love some feedback from some of the pros

 

Thanks in advance!

 

The market is generous, it beams tons of signals about its intention to all the traders around the world without discrimination.

 

Some traders can see signals in price,

Some traders can see signals in volume,

Some traders can see signals in volatilities,

Some traders can see signals in spreads,

Some traders can see signals in momentum,

Some traders can see signals in bid and ask,

Some traders can see signals in blocks,

Some traders can see signals in foot prints,

Some traders can see signals in delta,

Some traders can see signals in profile,

Some traders can see signals in time,

Some traders can see signals in ticker,

Some traders can see signals in harmonics,

Some traders can see signals in averages,

Some traders can see signals in stochastics,

Some traders can see signals in relativities,

Some traders can see signals in auctions,

Some traders can see signals in astrology...

 

don't worry about what other people see,

you have to have your own theory of the market:

you have to have your own theory of why the market goes up, and

you have to have your own theory of why the market goes down.

 

Your analysis is based on your theory.

 

So, my question is, what is your theory?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, the price:volume relationship is all you really need to trade. You don't even need the MACD, much less any of the hundreds of indicators available.

 

Trading in this manner, however, is not for everyone. If you think you're cut out for it, see Trading By Price.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I nominate Tams post for Post of the Month... and it's in the running for Post of the Year!

 

... will quote you when someone asks me what I mean by "Find your own way!"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes, the price:volume relationship is all you really need to trade. You don't even need the MACD, much less any of the hundreds of indicators available.

 

Trading in this manner, however, is not for everyone. If you think you're cut out for it, see Trading By Price.

 

Db

 

Hi DB,

 

I have read your post regarding Trading By Price and in it you even disregard Volume Bars....

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but the strategy you are advocating is more or less to develop Support and Resistance Lines when the price is consolidating and making a decision from there...?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The market is generous, it beams tons of signals about its intention to all the traders around the world without discrimination.

 

Some traders can see signals in price,

Some traders can see signals in volume,

Some traders can see signals in volatilities,

Some traders can see signals in spreads,

Some traders can see signals in momentum,

Some traders can see signals in bid and ask,

Some traders can see signals in blocks,

Some traders can see signals in foot prints,

Some traders can see signals in delta,

Some traders can see signals in profile,

Some traders can see signals in time,

Some traders can see signals in ticker,

Some traders can see signals in harmonics,

Some traders can see signals in averages,

Some traders can see signals in stochastics,

Some traders can see signals in relativities,

Some traders can see signals in auctions,

Some traders can see signals in astrology...

 

don't worry about what other people see,

you have to have your own theory of the market:

you have to have your own theory of why the market goes up, and

you have to have your own theory of why the market goes down.

 

Your analysis is based on your theory.

 

So, my question is, what is your theory?

 

Thanks for the reply Tams

 

My theory,

 

The trend is your friend

 

Buy high, sell higher,

 

Sell low, buy lower

 

I can read the instruments I choose to follow, my problem is developing my methodology. Every where i read says keep things simple.

 

I have done research on stocastics and they work for some people and don't work for others

 

I am trying to make things as simple as possible hence why i like to assess the price to volume relationship. Are there any tips you can provide me with in regards to developing a methodology...

 

What does your methodology consist of.

 

I understand that ultimately I am in charge of developing my own strategy and making my own decisions and having my own view on the market and the price action of a stock; however, as someone who is more or less a rookie in technical analysis.... it is hard to get to your destination with out a map

 

I am attempting to develop my map, could you help?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi DB,

 

I have read your post regarding Trading By Price and in it you even disregard Volume Bars....

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but the strategy you are advocating is more or less to develop Support and Resistance Lines when the price is consolidating and making a decision from there...?

 

As the years roll by, I try to find ways of making this simpler. Unfortunately, as the years roll by, more and more beginners are -- shall we say -- "muddied" by an ever-increasing number of vendors and their nonsense. Once in a great while, I'll find somebody who's just starting out. In that case, the process seems to take no time at all. But more often the beginner has so much to unlearn that the process seems to take forever.

 

In the case of volume, yes, it is important. But so much bad information is out there regarding volume that trying to correct the errors is a task in itself. And so many beginners think that Forex is the greatest thing since store-bought soap, and Forex doesn't have volume, that leaving volume off entirely is a lot less trouble and just might make things clearer.

 

So, in a word, yes. If price is in a trading range, understand the dynamics of the range. If it isn't, understand the dynamics of trend. Volume can be helpful if you understand it. But if you hold a lot of wrong-headed notions about it, it's best to just set it aside and focus on price. Eventually, you'll be able to include volume again and you'll think "Oh yeah"...

 

And, of course, the less said about indicators and Fib and Pivot Points and so forth, the better.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
As the years roll by, I try to find ways of making this simpler. Unfortunately, as the years roll by, more and more beginners are -- shall we say -- "muddied" by an ever-increasing number of vendors and their nonsense. Once in a great while, I'll find somebody who's just starting out. In that case, the process seems to take no time at all. But more often the beginner has so much to unlearn that the process seems to take forever.

 

In the case of volume, yes, it is important. But so much bad information is out there regarding volume that trying to correct the errors is a task in itself. And so many beginners think that Forex is the greatest thing since store-bought soap, and Forex doesn't have volume, that leaving volume off entirely is a lot less trouble and just might make things clearer.

 

So, in a word, yes. If price is in a trading range, understand the dynamics of the range. If it isn't, understand the dynamics of trend. Volume can be helpful if you understand it. But if you hold a lot of wrong-headed notions about it, it's best to just set it aside and focus on price. Eventually, you'll be able to include volume again and you'll think "Oh yeah"...

 

And, of course, the less said about indicators and Fib and Pivot Points and so forth, the better.

 

Db

 

DB what are your thoughts on candle stick patterns.,..?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most who are working the simple <-> complex axis are really attempting to move towards more certainty on the certainty <-> uncertainty axis

 

But - any certainty in trading is going to be low–grade (and also short lived) certainty

so … :"Simple" ? Forget about it!

 

…unless you don’t seek ANY adaptivity in your trading

To be adaptive, consider that you may have to turn towards making your trading as complex as it needs to be instead of orienting to and pushing towards more ‘simplicity’

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Most who are working the simple <-> complex axis are really attempting to move towards more certainty on the certainty <-> uncertainty axis

 

But - any certainty in trading is going to be low–grade (and also short lived) certainty

so … :"Simple" ? Forget about it!

 

…unless you don’t seek ANY adaptivity in your trading

To be adaptive, consider that you may have to turn towards making your trading as complex as it needs to be instead of orienting to and pushing towards more ‘simplicity’

 

There is no certainty in the market. But that does not mean that it must be complex by default.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Most who are working the simple <-> complex axis are really attempting to move towards more certainty on the certainty <-> uncertainty axis

 

But - any certainty in trading is going to be low–grade (and also short lived) certainty

so … :"Simple" ? Forget about it!

 

…unless you don’t seek ANY adaptivity in your trading

To be adaptive, consider that you may have to turn towards making your trading as complex as it needs to be instead of orienting to and pushing towards more ‘simplicity’

 

Alright zdo....

 

your advice is sage but you still havn't provided me with any advice....

 

As i said earlier ultimately i make my own choices and decisions but one of the purposes of why i started this thread was to generate some insight of price to volume and what people use.

 

What does your trading methodology consist of?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Emini Trading – Free Emini Trading Indicators from Emini-Watch.com

 

Try downloading the Better Volume Indicator from MT4 at Emini Watch.

This will give you the Volume Spread Analysis, which is basically relative volume. The regular volume indicators are useless. The better volume indicator gives you the Moving average of the volume for the last 100 days ( I use 22 days) You can see that when the volume is above the MA the market usually makes big moves, below and it chops.

 

Hope this helps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks for the reply Tams

 

My theory,

 

The trend is your friend

 

Buy high, sell higher,

 

Sell low, buy lower

 

...

 

I am attempting to develop my map, could you help?

 

 

that's not your theory,

 

that's your strategy.

 

 

You apply your strategy to your theory.

 

before you can be profitable,

you have to know what you are applying your strategy to.

Otherwise you are just trading in random.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
your advice is sage but you still havn't provided me with any advice....

 

 

That is a perfect description of a poster over on TradersLaboratory... I think his user name is zdo :rofl:

 

 

 

What does your trading methodology consist of?

 

My methodology is centered in MarketTyping the auctions first then, off that typing, dynamically applying a weighted array of 12 ( dumb, but not necessarily simple) systems… opposite of developing a system then discovering ‘filters’ to improve its performance … and another single word would require a book …

If we aren't in the same book, there isn't much sense in trying to get on the same page as someone ie I rarely discuss ‘edges’ with other traders – even face to face. If I ask someone a question about a method, most of the time they don’t have an answer that really goes to what I was asking… and typically when I am asked a question, any insights I do have seem to go whizzing off into space… There are many other ways to connect with someone else besides trying to pump them with my system…

I’ll just stick with “ find your own way”

 

Specific to “price to volume and what people use” – I only use volume in certain specific market conditions and it turns out mostly for exits in ‘OB’ or ‘OS’ situations. Except for certain block trade setups (seeUrmaBlume, etc) and also in a couple of isolated parabolic type exceptions , (and ironically, in relation to all the volume content in the trading community) I get more traction out of an ’indicator’ utilizing volume / flow of market orders than I do straight up volume, delta’s, book, or tape.

 

…and fwiw, I find nothing ‘wrong’ with classic volume work or volume oriented methods like VSA or even Hershey… but just am not personally inclined to use them day in and day out…

 

Maybe DBP can provide you some links to his OLDER material about using volume for entry at his S’s and R’s. it’s different from the methods that use Vol. all the time…

( btw, if I remember correctly he seemed to be trying to ‘stay in’ until next signif S or R was reached … if I were using that I would be less ‘ambitious’ with my targets… will leave it to him to add, correct, or transform as needed…)

 

What info do (or did) you derive from MACD?

Context?

Content?

 

All the best,

 

zdo

Edited by zdo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
TRO, you are a boss!

 

While TRO and I don't exactly see eye to eye on the indicator thing, I find it hard to disagree with anything in the first post to his thread. Practical advice is hard to come by on message boards, while theory abounds.

 

TRO is a nice counterpoint to all the hemming and hawing and waffling, even if you don't buy into the indicators.

 

You might also be interested in the Reading Charts in Real Time thread, another no-bullshit contribution.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi guys,

 

I'm trying to develop a technical strategy to my trading and seem to be overwhelmed with all the different indicators...

 

Currently I use MACD, Price, and Volume....

 

Am I missing anything or is it naive to make calls on the Price to Volume relationship?

 

Would love some feedback from some of the pros

 

Thanks in advance!

 

You are missing something that no one has mentioned in the posts so far. Ill get to that in a minute.

 

I don't use MACD or any other lagging math based indicators. Do they work??? Sure . Im not here to argue that. I bet there are tons of people making money with what ever I think is lagging or what not. You mentioned price and volume and this is what keyed me into this post. If you look at on a given day and put the volume into a profile you will get a bell curve. No surprise this method is called "volume profile." What you will notice is that most of the volume will be at a particular price and by volume profile users this is a magnet and usually not seen as an advantageous place to trade. Know as the VPOC. IMO you don't want to trade were every one is trading. You don't want to trade where lots of short term traders are trading either.

 

What you are missing is what you do want is to figure out where the institutions are trading and trade with them. Why? Because they move the market. That is why. Does this mean you should listen to Ben on the Squack and just go short when you hear Goldman getting short? NO But this is what volume is tipping you off to . You want to know what price did at certain prices and look to see if buyers or sellers are stepping in at that price then hit the bid or lift the offer and go. These should be predetermined price levels with obvious areas right behind them for failures.

 

Honestly there really isn't anything else but volume, price, and time. And maybe the FED but thats a different post for a different thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
While TRO and I don't exactly see eye to eye on the indicator thing, I find it hard to disagree with anything in the first post to his thread. Practical advice is hard to come by on message boards, while theory abounds.

 

TRO is a nice counterpoint to all the hemming and hawing and waffling, even if you don't buy into the indicators.

 

You might also be interested in the Reading Charts in Real Time thread, another no-bullshit contribution.

 

Db

 

DB,

 

What indicators do you trade with/ what indicators would you recommend?

 

Obviously this is subjective to each individual but I am curious to hear your insight on this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You are missing something that no one has mentioned in the posts so far. Ill get to that in a minute.

 

I don't use MACD or any other lagging math based indicators. Do they work??? Sure . Im not here to argue that. I bet there are tons of people making money with what ever I think is lagging or what not. You mentioned price and volume and this is what keyed me into this post. If you look at on a given day and put the volume into a profile you will get a bell curve. No surprise this method is called "volume profile." What you will notice is that most of the volume will be at a particular price and by volume profile users this is a magnet and usually not seen as an advantageous place to trade. Know as the VPOC. IMO you don't want to trade were every one is trading. You don't want to trade where lots of short term traders are trading either.

 

What you are missing is what you do want is to figure out where the institutions are trading and trade with them. Why? Because they move the market. That is why. Does this mean you should listen to Ben on the Squack and just go short when you hear Goldman getting short? NO But this is what volume is tipping you off to . You want to know what price did at certain prices and look to see if buyers or sellers are stepping in at that price then hit the bid or lift the offer and go. These should be predetermined price levels with obvious areas right behind them for failures.

 

Honestly there really isn't anything else but volume, price, and time. And maybe the FED but thats a different post for a different thread.

 

Colonel B,

 

Thank you for your insight!

 

I'm not sure if you use think or swim but do you know if it is equppied with the VPOC? If not what to you recommend for someone to use this tool?

 

 

"

What you are missing is what you do want is to figure out where the institutions are trading and trade with them. Why? Because they move the market. That is why"

 

How do you determine/grasp where institutions are trading? Volume spikes?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That is a perfect description of a poster over on TradersLaboratory... I think his user name is zdo :rofl:

 

 

 

 

 

My methodology is centered in MarketTyping the auctions first then, off that typing, dynamically applying a weighted array of 12 ( dumb, but not necessarily simple) systems… opposite of developing a system then discovering ‘filters’ to improve its performance … and another single word would require a book …

If we aren't in the same book, there isn't much sense in trying to get on the same page as someone ie I rarely discuss ‘edges’ with other traders – even face to face. If I ask someone a question about a method, most of the time they don’t have an answer that really goes to what I was asking… and typically when I am asked a question, any insights I do have seem to go whizzing off into space… There are many other ways to connect with someone else besides trying to pump them with my system…

I’ll just stick with “ find your own way”

 

Specific to “price to volume and what people use” – I only use volume in certain specific market conditions and it turns out mostly for exits in ‘OB’ or ‘OS’ situations. Except for certain block trade setups (seeUrmaBlume, etc) and also in a couple of isolated parabolic type exceptions , (and ironically, in relation to all the volume content in the trading community) I get more traction out of an ’indicator’ utilizing volume / flow of market orders than I do straight up volume, delta’s, book, or tape.

 

…and fwiw, I find nothing ‘wrong’ with classic volume work or volume oriented methods like VSA or even Hershey… but just am not personally inclined to use them day in and day out…

 

Maybe DBP can provide you some links to his OLDER material about using volume for entry at his S’s and R’s. it’s different from the methods that use Vol. all the time…

( btw, if I remember correctly he seemed to be trying to ‘stay in’ until next signif S or R was reached … if I were using that I would be less ‘ambitious’ with my targets… will leave it to him to add, correct, or transform as needed…)

 

What info do (or did) you derive from MACD?

Context?

Content?

 

All the best,

 

zdo

 

ZDO. thank you for your feedback!

 

In regards to MACD, I am still learning however, what I have derived from MACD as a leading indicator is this.

 

When I track a stock or future, I follow it on the 1 minute, 5 minute and 15 minute charts.

 

MACD paints a different picture for all three of these time frames; however, I use it in conjunction with my insight of the stock/future and its behavior.

 

The biggest take away I have derived from it is, Buy when it dips below the 200 MA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DB,

 

What indicators do you trade with/ what indicators would you recommend?

 

Obviously this is subjective to each individual but I am curious to hear your insight on this.

 

I don't use any. Just support/resistance, price/volume, trend/range. No insight here. I just don't see the point of them since they don't tell me anything I don't already know from following price.

 

This is largely an outgrowth of auction market theory, which predates Market Profile, which is, I believe, what Colonel B is referring to. Click the link if you're interested. You'll also learn how to find the "VPOC" easily, without incurring any expense.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The biggest take away I have derived from it is, Buy when it dips below the 200 MA
200 MA of price or using 200MA as the slow average?

 

...MACD as a leading indicator...

“leading” ??? Is convergence or divergence of two xAverages – relative to most recent extreme (hook) or contacts - really “leading” ?

 

I follow it on the 1 minute, 5 minute and 15 minute charts.

How many different timeframe combinations have you explored?

Tried ~3 min, ~15 min, ~60 min ?

Have you considered that a ~7 minute chart might replace all three? :)

(:haha:polarity– simultaneously joshing you and being serious here :missy:)

 

 

 

Some big picture comments -

Just by following the links and hints others are providing you herein, you are moving away from the 'simple'. In line with some others' recent posts (vpoc, etc), traders must learn to percieve, think, act/react differently at price (and value, etc) extremes than they do when price is 'in the middle'. Each individual will have more strengths in trading one than the other.

I'm bringing this up largely because "when it dips below the 200" is oriented towards the 'middle' type trades and as you naturally explore and experiment it is important to start building awareness of the distinct approaches required and ... awareness of how you personally percieve, think, act/react differently at price (and value, etc) extremes than you do when price is 'in the middle' - so that you can be clearer and more open to what your options and alternatives are.

 

By far the most common coping mech. is to specialize in one of them and 'sit out' the other. .. and I'm sticking with the term "coping mechanism" - as in "settling" - because in my own case and in every case in working with others where we've gotten to sufficient depth with it, it is suboptimal adaptations post - trauma (not nec extreme trauma) ie subsequent 'decisions of defeat', and not frustrations or lack of aptitudes, that ultimately precludes one from developing the right 'mindsets' (for sake of brevity) and 'strategies' for both the extremes and the middles (and other 'types' too)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Hello citizens of the U.S. The hundred year trade war has leaked over into a trading war. Your equity holdings are under attack by huge sovereign funds shorting relentlessly... running basically the opposite of  PPT operations.  As an American you are blessed to be totally responsible for your own assets - the govt won’t and can’t take care of you, your lame ass whuss ‘retail’ fund managers go catatonic  and can't / won’t help you, etc etc.... If you’re going to hold your positions, it’s on you to hedge your holdings.   Don’t blame Trump, don’t blame the system, don’t even blame the ‘enemies’ - ie don’t blame period.  Just occupy the freedom and responsibility you have and act.  The only mistake ‘Trump’ made so far was not to warn you more explicitly and remind you of your options to hedge weeks ago.   FWIW when Trump got elected... I also failed to explicitly remind you... just sayin’
    • Date: 7th April 2025.   Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.   Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.   Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.   Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.           South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.   Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.   US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open   US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.   Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.   German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions   German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.   Eurozone Growth at Risk   Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.   Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.   UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow   In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.   Wall Street Braces for Recession   Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.   Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen   The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.   Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.   In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.   Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.   Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.           Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns   Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.   Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’   OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike   Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.   Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock watch, good buying (+313%) toi hold onto the 173.32 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.