What's Your Win Rate ?

[Mysticforex 13]

For the past few months my win rate has been running about 61% or so. What makes this work out is always going for a R/R 2:1 And being willing to get out of losing trades fast.

 

How have you been doing ?

[khamore1 10]

My win rate is 71.4% my PL is a disaster; it takes me an average of 12 wins to pay for one loss. It looks like I like to win more than I like money; I don’t see a remedy insight

[Mysticforex 13]

My win rate is 71.4% my PL is a disaster; it takes me an average of 12 wins to pay for one loss. It looks like I like to win more than I like money; I don’t see a remedy insight

 

Correct me if I am wrong. You are risking 100 pip to make 50 pips ? Or some variation there of ?

 

Or, are your TPs too conservative ? S/Ls too optimistic ?

 

It takes more time finding a better setup. But in the long run I think you will save time not having to take 12 trades to break even.

 

If you could post a chart of a typical trade, so I know I am not missing/misunderstanding anything.

[Obsidian 10]

this year things have been better for me...506 trades so far...373 winners, 133 losers...73.7%

[Colonel B 10]

About 60K in the last 4 months. I think that is all that matters. Dont you???

[bakrob99 11]

About 60K in the last 4 months. I think that is all that matters. Dont you???

 

Can't say based on the info provided. If your account is 7 figures, you'd be better off in Tbills

 

On the other hand, if you're saying that win rate is useless information without considering others factors - I agree completely.

[Obsidian 10]

About 60K in the last 4 months. I think that is all that matters. Dont you???

 

unfortunately, I totally disagree

[Colonel B 10]

There is a company that I was introduced to that was selling a subscription with indicators that boasted a 90% and 90%+ win rate. They were and I think still are totally affordable. The charts that you needed to rent or use were the cheapest and the most affordable package I have seen yet. I am not sure if I can mention the name of the company or not I will have to get back to you on that.

 

Did the indicators work? That is the most important thing most people will tell you. Are they really 90% accurate? That is what most people especially here are looking for. That is what makes the most sense. Must be a scam!!! Nothing is that good. I had a friend tell me if it was that good he would get a loan if he had to to make this work. Affordable charts, affordable indicators, and 90% "+" accuracy. "Well I would have to back test it myself." Guess what the indicators are in fact 90%.

 

So I traded it and lived happily ever after? WRONG No one is up for the year trading the system I mentioned. The only people making money over there are the ones selling the subs.

 

What went wrong? How can a system that is affordable and works 90 "+" % not make money. Here is how.

 

• #1 The core would only take a certain trade a day. If you gauge the indicators against 1 trade then yes you get higher results but you lose all the flexibility of having days that could of been winners if you had taken another trade. But regardless its 90% right?
   
  
• #2 Yes it is 90% but the stop out was 51+pip (or tick depending on the market) stop loss vs. 10 pip/tick profit. If you want higher then 90% one of the trainers uses a 101 pip stop out for a 10 tick profit. YIKES! Guess what you can have a 90%+ win rate and still lose money. Lets do some quick math in case this concept isn't coming through.
  

 

Say you have 100 trading days and with 90% that is 90 winning days! Not bad. So with 90 wins at 10 pips with 1 contract is 900 USD in your account (not including commissions). YEA not bad. But what about the losers? That is 10 days losing at 51 ticks is -510 in losses. So that is 390 after you take your losses. Still not bad. However lets add commissions. Its roughly 3+ pips on forex for an account that small but we will go with 3. 3 pips to the broker x 100 trades( you have to pay for the bad ones too :P) = 300 in commissions. 390-300 is well 90 USD that you can make with 1 contract with a 90% system in roughly 6 months. That is roughly 200 bucks a year. This is with out any errors on your part and if you don't make any mistakes. Now all you have to do is keep your full time job and get a part time job so you can afford to keep the charts and indicators going and you can trade a 90% system.

 

So what about the 90+% win rate with the 101 stop? Well at 95 % you can make 145 that is only 55 dollars more over 6 months by doubling your stop out. OK what is wrong with that? I must hate making money to have a problem with that! NO the problem is what will happen if the 95% comes off just a little bit. To go from 95% to 90 percent with the same stop loss is -410. Yea and its still a 90% wining system! What about the 90% system with the 51 pip coming off 5% down to 85%? -215 after commissions. And this is still an 85% WIN rate system. This is how you lose money and still have a high win rate.

 

Why did I go through this whole run down to tell you this? So hopefully you can learn from my experience and not have to take so long till you are making money. What did I learn? Don't put so much emphasis on win rate or win percentage. It is important but not the only thing. It is part and maybe a small part of the equation. Yes you need to win no debating that. The question is "HOW MUCH ARE YOU MAKING?" Why are you trading in the first place? Can you quit your job and use this to support yourself? Can you buy a boat or car or house or go on a vacation with the profits from trading? How long did it take you to get that much capital? Don't become diluted in win rates and percentages of winners to losers. Are you making money? Can you pay bills with what you have made in the market? Last time I checked you cant pay an electric bill on sim cash or a high win rate. All the car dealerships around me wont sell me a car on wins and a bank wont give me a loan either on a high win rate. But cash everyone seems to understand that for some reason. They will sell you a car if you have cash. All those other unfortunate folks using the 90% system couldn't pay for the affordable charts with the profits of the system let alone any bill or retirement.

 

Do all 90% system lose? Of course not. The point is not to bash all 90% programs or programs but rather bring to light the more important elements.

 

Most traders don't or wont talk about this or refuse to talk about it. Well guess what most traders don't make money in this anyway. If you feel uncomfortable talking about this to others then you need to be asking yourself the above questions. If you are doing this as a hobby or are an inventor then disregard all of this post and carry on doing what you are doing.

[40draws 10]

About 60K in the last 4 months. I think that is all that matters. Dont you???

 

The question is "HOW MUCH ARE YOU MAKING?" Why are you trading in the first place? Can you quit your job and use this to support yourself? ... Are you making money? Can you pay bills with what you have made in the market? Last time I checked you cant pay an electric bill on sim cash or a high win rate. All the car dealerships around me wont sell me a car on wins and a bank wont give me a loan either on a high win rate. But cash everyone seems to understand that for some reason. They will sell you a car if you have cash. ... Most traders don't or wont talk about this or refuse to talk about it. Well guess what most traders don't make money in this anyway.

 

I'm very new to the trading business, but I have been supporting first myself, then both me and my wife, and now my family since I was eighteen in my own business. I agree with you 100%.

 

I have been reading through this and another trading forum, and I will say this: There is a lot of talk about the need to treat trading as a business, but there is little practical acknowledgement as to what exactly one should demand from a business enterprise.

 

The purpose of a business is to generate an income. If you can't generate an income, then you need to get out of that business and into one that will allow you to generate an income. It seems many people have a difficult time succeeding in this business. I wonder if a large part of that difficulty is that they have not planned for how to take money from a trading account to "Hip Pocket National Bank."

 

A trading plan is one thing, but it needs to be a part of an overall business plan. The business plan should set benchmarks for success. A key element would be a plan to draw money from your account to finance your life.

 

From what I have read here and elsewhere, quite a few people would not honestly be able to answer the question you put to them: "Why are you trading in the first place?" It would seem that for many, making a profit sufficient to fund a decent living is not the primary goal of trading the financial markets.

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Don't put so much emphasis on win rate or win percentage. It is important but not the only thing. It is part and maybe a small part of the equation. Yes you need to win no debating that. The question is "HOW MUCH ARE YOU MAKING?"

 

Hi Colonel,

 

I agree with you about percentage win-rates - it's not a very important evaluation metric. In assessing whether or not to adopt a particular trading strategy it can be useful from a psychological perspective, as many are not comfortable with the concept of "losing" (I include myself - give me a great trend following system with a 30% win-rate and I'd soon get spooked and screw it up!). Beyond that, win rate is not really very informative.

 

"How Much Are You Making?" is a better question, but I don't think that stating the answer in dollar terms is that useful. Wouldn't it be more useful to state this as a percentage return on the account, and assume that this return can then be compounded through effective money management?

 

I for one am certainly not interested in whether I make enough money to live on this year or next; I'm interested in how much money I will have twenty or thirty years down the line . . .

 

BlueHorseshoe

Edited August 22, 2012 by MadMarketScientist
no personal attacks

[Obsidian 10]

...Don't put so much emphasis on win rate or win percentage. It is important but not the only thing. It is part and maybe a small part of the equation. Yes you need to win no debating that. The question is "HOW MUCH ARE YOU MAKING?" ...

 

I agree that focusing on a single variable may be misguiding. A strategy with %99 accuracy may evaporate your trading account.

isn't putting so much emphasis on "how much you are you making" the same?

saying that I make X amount in Y time brings so many questions.

I think when new traders evaluate a trading system, they should check:

-initial investment size

-leverage

-win/loss rate

-average win&lose

-how long you have been using this system

-duration of trades

-average profit per week-month

-max consecutive winning trades & losing trades

in my very humble opinion....

[samuel23 10]

For the past few months my win rate has been running about 61% or so. What makes this work out is always going for a R/R 2:1 And being willing to get out of losing trades fast.

 

How have you been doing ?

 

My winning rates around 45 - 55 % on weekly basis. I manage to make some money from Forex but sometime it is rather hard. I used all the necessary tools from the market to boost up my trade but still i can find myself in a losing trade. Is there anyone who's winning rate is near to perfection in Forex??

[wrbtrader 10]

My win rate is 71.4% my PL is a disaster; it takes me an average of 12 wins to pay for one loss. It looks like I like to win more than I like money; I don’t see a remedy insight

 

This is most likely not a trade strategy problem. In contrast, there is a problem within your trading plan involving something amongst all those components that work with your trade strategy.

 

Those components in your trading plan are money management, proper capitalization, position size management, trading experience, discipline, proper trading environment, proper equipment and so on.

[Obsidian 10]

My winning rates around 45 - 55 % on weekly basis. I manage to make some money from Forex but sometime it is rather hard. I used all the necessary tools from the market to boost up my trade but still i can find myself in a losing trade. Is there anyone who's winning rate is near to perfection in Forex??

 

so far i've never seen someone with %90+ winning rate (with reasonable profit-loss targets)...instead of searching for "perfection", improving yourself&gaining experience (yes it takes time) might be better.

[samuel23 10]

I guess that this was hard to make. How can someone have an average winning of 97% on weekly basis. It is very difficult to achieve nearly impossible but i cant say that as we never know what can happen in Forex. So far i have never seen a winning average of 97%. Even EA cannot do that??