Watch A Typical Day Of A Real Day Trader

[ForexTraderX 10]

by the way, because of the network crash, I actually wasn't available via skype, for those who may have sentme a message. Really sorry about that, would have prefered to talk shop than diagnose my system.

 

Anyway, may be around tonight as well, if so I will post a message here.

 

thanks

[ForexTraderX 10]

By the way, I kinda feel that today we basically saw the low of the EUR/JPY and EUR/USD until break the highs set earlier this week.

 

anyone have any thoughts on this?

 

P.S. I feel the same way about the USD/JPY also.. I think we're in for a couple hundered pip upmove before we get really any lower in USD/JPY.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, ended up holding part of an entry for over 100 pip loss due to the network problem I had yesterday. Ended up closeding it out a bit ago. Actually, still believe in the trade opportunity, but I had a larger position than I am comfortable with, and if I'm not comfortable, that can undermine my entire progress for a full week.

 

So, i'm happier taking a small, known, acceptable loss now, than waiting for later and possibly having to take a large, unknown, and unacceptable loss later.

 

still up over 2.25% for the week so far, and I have the opportunity to make more, without losing more than I can "live with"

 

As far as opportunities, go, I think a long in the USD/JPY is still very strong, though I am a bit skeptical of the EUR/JPY long idea, as well as the EUR/USD long idea. I like them well enough, but upon further consideration I know I could be totally wrong, and this market could just drop away.

 

The lack of further gains in many major risk markets after monday has me a more cautious than I normally am... and hwere we are a few days into the week, but still not breaking the high set the first trading sessions of this week... well, I'm just listening to the market, that's all.

 

I like the trades, I wouldn't change a thing, but I'm not married to them, and I won't risk more than i'm comfortable. I will also look for possible opportunties or justifications to get short those same markets, so I can be prepared to reverse if I determine it is the better courese of action.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, both the EUR/JPY and the USD/JPY are at the next level down where I mentioned would be a good place to buy. i'm long again, we'll see.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, i'm somewhat surprised I am doing pretty well so far this week, considering i was dead on corect for the first trading day of the week, and then mostly wrong from then on after. Since then, the E/J and U/J and E/U have pulled back deeper and for a longer period than I had anticipated.

 

however, EU, UJ, and EJ all look to be at some prettysignificant support levels.If these break, I will have to think twice about my bullish bias.

 

at any rate, have two small positions still on, and i'm done for the day.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, it's been a volitile couple of weeks for me, and I"m not a big fan of my own account equity variance, particularly given the ROI i'm getting. Of course that's likley because some of my longer term outlooks have been primarily wrong. However, tonight I see a few opportunities that seem decent.

 

In particular, I like a long on the EUR/GBP, and a short on the NZD/USD.

 

Look at the daily charts on both. in particualr, the EUR/GBP is showing a pinbar like daily price action off of support, and the NZD/USD has made several strong bearish moves, but has not yet broken support. I'd love to get short NZD/USD if we could pull back up to 0.8220

 

the EUR/GBP i'm in long already. 7965-7945 look like great price range to get long, particularly 7955 or 7945.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, I take it back on the NZD/USD. tonight I'm having a hard time getting a very good read on much, except the EUR/GBP for a long. Other than that, and the two longs I have in other markets, I've not going to be taking much tonight.

 

USD/JPY also looks like it has some long potential tonight, but EUR/GBP from '45 is what i'm looking at most.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Also, the EUR/JPY looks good for a long around 100.00. Technically, it's very nice. major psych figure, intersecting downtrend line, major support, eur/usd looks possibly supported giving eur/jpy likely even more support, etc.

 

however, i think the best is still EUR/GBP.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, it's been a while since I've done anything over here. Was a bit frustrated with my own trading, not to mention the fact that I was pretty much completely wrong on market direction for the last 2 weeks of september. Had a few exceptions of course, but my level of conviction on future direction was very strong, and it hasn't really played out that way. So I've switched up my trading to a more short term, actively managed trading approach. It's something do when markets have less convincing indications of future trend, say at the end of an overextended move, as they come into support/resistance, but haven't given clear indication if they will continue, or reverse.

 

Last week of september was a bit tough, and I was down a bit. I really was surprised to see that the bounce/continuation of the bullish move in the risk markets took so long to finally stick, and now I hve no idea actually if it'sll do anything more than just bounce. However, there have been some great trading opportunities in spite of my own market opinion being wrong, thus i've been able to start october strong.

 

Wanted to point out for today, the GBP/USD looks particularly good to short. It's probably the single best opportunity I see for today.

 

I'm short now, and will primarily focus on this market over the next couple sessions. Also, the NZD/JPY and NZD/USD show good downward bias based on their daily candle price action, but I've already taken some of that move, and won't enter again unless NZD/USD or NZD/JPY can rise up to the support they broke earlier today.

 

We could see 100 pips pretty quick on the GBP/USD. Could even happen in the next 24 hours. That's my hope anyway, as I'm holding short for a final target of 1.6040ish

 

May even just let it run itself. it's kinda rare to have such a solid trading opportunity with really nothing to create support for nearly 100 pips. Particularly after such a parabolic move up, the market is overextended but has not yet really broken. I'm expecting it today or tomorrow, and I don't see anything else out there that provides such a solid combination of potential as the GBP/USD does today..

 

Also, this week will mark about 1 month since I started the myfxbook in my signature below. So far, up about 4.66%. Would like to finish out the week with more than I have now, but if not, no big deal. I typically make between 4-8% in any given 30 days, but i trade pretty small size on my positions because that's what works for me.

 

At any rate, it's a fun game, and I take my trades based pretty much off of the concepts i've discussed already in this thread. So anyone can see, this actually does work.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, just closed the final part of my GBP/USD trade. It worked out almost as I had hoped. I did believe the drop would be faster, but we did manage to see about 57 pips of downward action since my previous post out of the anticipated 100 pips, and my short trades pretty much all worked out well.

 

also, the NZD/JPY and NZD/USD in particular did sell off also. Wish I had held the NZD/USD longer, but profit is profit.

 

All 3 of these trades I based primarily on the price action of the daily chart. Big pinbar reversal daily candles that occured when price is at or near a point where it met resistance before. the NZD/JPY and NZD/USD both had this occur in the last 48 hours.

 

GBP/USD had made a pinbar several days ago (last week), but had yet to really drop, until about 3 days ago we had a bearish engulfing candle and then GBP/USD trade in a range for 2 days, really without much to support it. Given the pinbar + the bearish engulfing + failure to immediately move back upwards the next day + a parabolic move upwards into a resistance area that occurred the last couple of months but has now broken the upward trendlines = about the most simple, straightforward reasons to have a short bias.

 

Combine that with the news releases that have been coming out of the U.K. have been a bit more disappointing then hopeful, and it's really an extremely high probability trade situation.

 

Did anyone else catch part of the GBP/USD shorting opportunities this week or last? be curious to know who else saw reason to short and made some pips...?

Edited October 3, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[ForexTraderX 10]

Probably done for the week, but if I trade anything else, I will try to post a chart as well.

 

good trading all.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Here's where I'd get short from today. Target between 1.0640-1.0655

 

Stops between 30-40 pips each.

 

Larger positions at each of the 3 zones I have highlighted....smallest position at the 1.6100 zone, larger at 1.6120-30, and largest position at 1.6140ish

 

I will make sure my stops are not so close as to trigger before the next order is hit.

 

Basically, from 1.6100 up through 1.6170ish, I want to be short. So, I make sure that as price moves deeper, my orders get bigger. and my risk reward ratio gets better, though never risking more than about 1.5% total on every order triggered.

 

I want to make sure that wherever the market stops moving up, and starts moving down, I have a trade on that will make enough to give me a profit, regardless of already having 1 or 2 losses so far. Until price hits 1.6170ish or higher. at that point, i'd say "I'M WRONG", and want to take a final stop loss.

 

FTX

 

PS: i'm myself short right now, from just under 1.6100. personally, I feel we could press up a bit higher, to about 1.6108-1.6120, but I have another order that will fill a bit higher as well, and it's possible we move no further up than about what we already did, so I enter the smallest of my orders (in percent risk of course) at this point.

Edited October 4, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[ForexTraderX 10]

Also, as the GBP/USD moves downward, the first place where the downswing could run into some decent support would be between 1.6070-1.6060.

 

If we can push below this price before europe opens in about 4.5 hours from now, it is likley IMO that we'll see 1.6035-1.6040 during the euro session before we see any bounce upwards.

 

If we can stay abovfe the 1.6060 price point going into europe, we may have a more likely chance of having a bit of a choppy day. I wouldn't be surprised if right as europe is opening to see price move upwards between 1.6100-1.6130, before later in the day dropping down to touch 1.6035-1.6040.

 

So, it really depends on the momentum that builds up in the GBP/USD as it moves down. if strong momentum downward has pushed under 1.6060, then europe will likley finish the move to support at 1.6035-6040.

 

If we have not yet broke that price when europe starts to open, we could then likely make a run upwards to 6100-6030 before resuming a downward move.

 

And finally, if europe opens to price hodling between 6095-6120, we could see price push as high as 6150 before moving downward. Though, I would be more cautious about things if this were to be the case coming into europe... and I may even hold off on the levels I am looking at and wait for price action to hit those levels, and then confirm it will move to the downside using volume and 1 and 5 and 15 minute charts to help me determine if there is excessive supply at those zones (basically, VSA concepts)

 

These are the 3 possibilities as I see them, and their most likely outcomes. Of course theyu all could be completely wrong, but I think these are the most likley. If someone isn't sure how I came up with these scenarios, feel free to ask and I'll explain more.

 

FTX

[ForexTraderX 10]

For those that are following the thread here, I intend to give a sort of "blow by blow" commentary on this GBP/USD short trade, as well as on the overall GBP/USD shorting opportunity I see here, at least through the first hour or so of the london market open.

 

On a seperate note, I'm seeing the GBP/AUD show some potential opportunity as well.

 

The AUD/USD has sold off strong this week since the RBA annoucement. However, it's coming right into a significant support level at 1.0168 (about 20 pips down from current price)

 

I believe this level will very likley hold, given how significant it has been in the past, and how there has been pretty much no real retracement upwards in this downswing.

 

So today for, AUD/USD = I'm looking for an upward bounce/retracement from between 1.0180-1.0140. Somewhere in there I beleive will very likely be the low of the day through the close of the U.S. session tomorrow.

 

However, I'm quite bearish as my recent posts indicate on the GBP/USD.

 

so, if i'm about to get bullish on the AUD/USD, and i'm already bearish on the GBP/USD, it only makes sense to look for a potential trading opportunity in the GBP/AUD for a short.

 

So, I've taken an entry at 5785 short already, with about a 45 pip stop and a 45 pip first target, 80 pip 2nd target (around 5705). My risk is very small on this, about 1/4 percent.

 

Then, I have another entry around 1.5815 for a short, with a 45 pip stop, and a 90 pip target. I will risk about 0.4% on this trade. This will trigger about 10 pips before the stop of my current trade. So, for a short time, I could have 2 short positions on.

 

So, I could lose a max of about 0.65% on this GBP/AUD short idea. But should either trade end up hitting a target, I could make upwards of 1.17%

 

Also, I like the fact that the GBP/AUD hit 1.5797 and started to sell off a bit. This 1.5797 price is just a few pips above yesterdays high. Remember, stop loss orders are frequently placed above previous days highs and lows, and institutions will target these stops in order to find enough buy orders (the stops are buy orders, because anyone who is short from yesterday would have a buy order as a stop loss at or just a bit above the high of yesterday) So, buy taking a trade right around this price, I help increase the odds that there is a big seller who is also placing a sell order here due to the fact that he needs those buy stops in order to fill his sell order.

 

Now, the next major price levels that are likely to be targeted by institutions looking to fill large sell orders is 1.5820 and 1.5850. After those prices are hit, the next likely place for a reversal is 1.5870, 1.5900, and finally 1.5920. However, I will not look to get a short on the GBP/AUD price reaches above 1.5850.

 

I currently am holding short from 1.5785, and will take another short entry from just before 1.5820. That will complete my entries on this trading opportunity, unless later on I see clear evidence that the AUD/USD is bottoming out or starting to rise, at the same time that the GBP/USD is topping out or starting to fall.

 

FTX.

 

P.S. for the record, the BEST resistance zone that I see on the chart for GBP/AUD is a 50 pip wide zone between 1.5895, and 1.5945. If price can reach this zone, I will look to develop a plan to see what the AUD and GBP currencies are doing against other markets (most of all the USD), look for confluence of support and resistance for both the GBP and AUD across several currencies, as well as look at specific session/daily/weekly highs and lows in which to place a counter trend trade to the short side.

 

Currently up 15 pips on the GBP/AUD short

Edited October 4, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[ForexTraderX 10]

Now, since I see risk markets looking a bit bullish, I will hedge myself a slight bit by taking

a very small long on the AUD/USD at 1.0185, with a 40 pip stop, and a target between 40-65 pips.

 

This will allow me to take advantage of other traders, particularly large institutions, who are probably looking to take profits off the table (as well as other counter trend traders such as myself in this trade). At this point, assuming that 1.0182 is the low of the day until europe opens, Anyone who is long going into london will likley have their stop loss (which is a sell order that will close their current long trade for a loss) at or around the current daily low, and maybe as far down as 5-10 pips below the major low of 1.0166 made in august.

 

Furthermore, some major institutions and many speculators will have stops for their long trades at or very close to that 1.0167 low made back august.

 

So, those stop loss order are all sell stop loss orders. And because we are very over-extended to the downside (it will be almost 200 pips of a drop without even a 40 pip retracement if we hit the august low), it's safe to assume that those who are in the AUD/USD short, particularly those who are holding from the RBA rate decrease announcement, not many have taken profits, and they will look to take profits as we approach such a significant support level. Because if they wait, they won't see such a significant level again really until parity at 1.00.

 

And because of the amount of stop loss orders for current long position holders, as well as "short the breakout" novice players, both of whom are building up a large amount of sell orders between 1.0185 and 1.0165, this is going to be the best place for 200 pips for a large institution to cover all or part of a short position because they will have enough liquidity to buy to close what they want, without much danger of pushing the market back up against them.

 

Remember, the big boys can't just get in and out where they feel like it. They buy and sell at such a large quantity that they need to find heavy concentrations of many sell orders in order to help them buy the quantity they want without creating a reversal in the downtrend before they are done buying what they want!

 

People who are long who have their stop loss orders at 1.0185-1.0165, as well as those who want to sell the breakout around 1.0165, are going to be who the "smart money" uses to fill their very big buy orders.

 

One mans loss is another mans gain. This trading opportunity here in the AUD/USD is based almost entirely around this concept .

 

P.S. snice it is counter trend and has some correlation to other trades I currently have on, I may risk very little, not even 0.5% over all. By the way, i'm currently up 25 pips on the GBP/AUD short.

Edited October 4, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[ForexTraderX 10]

by the way, we just saw some MAJOR volume on the AUD/USD as we pushed into and bounced from the 1.0180 level. Volume that normally doesn't occur except during london open. Volume like this is almost never seen in asia unless there is a major news announcement. Or, if there is a real bottom/top being put in due to very large quantities of orders being triggered, most likely buy large players who are making a major shift in their directional holdings...nearly always to the opposite direction.

 

Well, it seems today there was no news. So....

 

Oh, and for a possible target point on the AUD/USD, I think we'll see price top out between 1.0250-1.0275 today. After all, we DID just have a central bank rate reduction... so I'm not too keen on thinking this is a long term reversal, more of a short term retracement on our way down to parity.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Here is a chart of where I think ideal price points are for a long in the AUD/USD today, going into the london and U.S. session.

 

I will feel these are great entry points until price reaches upwards to a minimum of 1.0235, but more likley 1.0250-1.0275

 

Ater that, I couldn't say. But for now, thats what i'm looking at.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Actually, given the developig price action in the AUD/USD, and a somewhat less clear price action of the EUR/USD, and the lack of strong, signficant selloff in the GBP/USD, I am starting to see a possible emerging theme today of bullish risk markets as we start europe and then the U.S. session.

 

With that in mind, I'm going to be looking to get in a higher risk amount onthe AUD/USD,since of all the markets at this moment, it actually seems to be the most clear with likely direction for the europe session.

 

and, I will probably trend lightly in terms of risk amount and my entries on the GBP/USD... if a small or moderate risk recovery takes shape withthe AUD/USD leading the way, I probably won't get hurt much on theGBP/USD, but no reason to be heavily shorting a market that is going no where.

 

However, since my origional assessment could still play out as overall risk off being in play, the biggest variable for me going into this coming europe session is"are we going to be primarily risk on? orare we going to be more risk off?"

 

once I know that, I will be able to determine more precisely if I will primarily look to get long risk markets like the AUD/USD, or short risk markest like the GBP/USD.

 

the GBP/AUD is still in play no matter what, too many good reasons to see it work out, and either way, it won't be hurt much if at all.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Here is a chart of where I think ideal price points are for a long in the AUD/USD today, going into the london and U.S. session.

 

I will feel these are great entry points until price reaches upwards to a minimum of 1.0235, but more likley 1.0250-1.0275

 

Ater that, I couldn't say. But for now, thats what i'm looking at.

 

Well, as I said earlier 1.0235 was the minimum that the AUD/USD would push to, and it looks like that was the asian session high.

 

now that europe is open, and london in about 45 more minutes, I actually feel we will see this move higher. Of course I hope we retrace to at least 1.0205 before moving up, so I can get a larger position than the very small one I have now, or ideally, a retest of 1.0185, but regardless, it looks like things are playing out pretty much as I expected. Of course london could change all that, but so far, things look good.

[ForexTraderX 10]

that GBP/AUD trade also worked out really well so far also. took profits on it between 5760 for a bit, then more at 5736. I've re-entered a fraction more as we've moved back up, and I'll really look to get short as we approach 5770- and then 5785, depending on what AUD/USD and GBP/USD are looking to do.

 

Also, I still can't tell if we are about to have an overall risk on day, or a risk off day. Though, It does look like GBP/AUD may have peaked out at 5785. Unless the british pound rallies like crazy against the other currencies, the top for today is already in IMO, since I don't see how the AUD/USD could push down much further today given the price action over the last few hours in the asian session.

 

As far as the GBP/USD, we just pushed up to run the previous U.S. session high right around 1.6116, and are now stalling. We hit the europe session highs from yesterday at 1.6125, and 1.6120 should provide some resistance as well, seeing as it was a previous daily low earlier in the week.

 

given where we are coming into london open, and that europe/london often run previous session highs/lows, only to reverse and move the other direction than the initial move that happens during the session, I wouldn't be surprised at all if somewhere between where we are now (1.6117), and 1.6125-6130 is the high of the europe session.

 

however, I will watch price action and volume, to determine if upward momentum is running into a large quantity of supply (sell orders).... thenm, I will get short big time, with tight stops, and very nice risk:reward ratios.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Now that we are 1 minute from london, I'm really thinking the GBP/USD setup for a short here isn't bad. But, maybe not as good as I originally anticipated.

 

What I am sure of, is that the GBP/AUD is the most likley to move downward, but it's hard to say how it will get there.

 

Overall, I still like my trading plan for tonight, but the GBP/USD is the one I'm the least sure of, of the 3 that I have been watching.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Seems the GBP/USD is running into som decent offers at the 6120 price. not surprising, but the movement from the low during the previous U.S. session into this level has been aggressive and stronger than I had anticipated.

 

Enough so that I've reduced my position size on the remaining orders, and may cancel the highest order if price doesn't look as I'd like in the next hour or so.

[ForexTraderX 10]

I closed part of my AUD/USD long trade out around 1.0233 and 1.0237. Reason is, this is a possible reversal point given that it is the asian session high. I will reload should it drop back down for more, but why carry it all back down if i can take prifts both here and again if it drops.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, still to early to tell, but I really like the stall, high volume red candles on a 1 min chart, and the drop that has the GBP/USD topping out around 6122.

 

I think maybe the bigger issue here is i'm trying to be comfortable with taking both a risk on and a risk off trade. not the easiest thing for me to do, but the market and price action are supporting just that idea so far...

 

maybe everything will work out perfectly. doubt it, but maybe.:::shrug:::

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, as I said earlier that 1.0235-1.0240 could be a temporary stalling point on AUD/USD... it was, and I'm glad I tooke some of my position off at that price.

 

I've re-entered long again at 1.0220, for another move back to the high, and this time, even further. i'm thinking 1.0250 at least.