Watch A Typical Day Of A Real Day Trader

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, price looks like it's gonna push down at least a bit more for both the AUD/USD and AUD/CAD.

 

1.0186 is next up in AUD/USD... I just lightned up my short position in both markets, as I don't see any reason to carry the full load downwards if that's the way the markets are gonna move next.

[ForexTraderX 10]

And of course, should the AUD/USD or AUD/CAD show additional signs of bottoming out, well, then I'LL get back in for a bit more.

 

By trading around my positions, as price action changes and develops, but by also having a bigger picture outlook on things, it allows me to pick and choose my spots, as I try to usually catch a turning point within just a few pips of the top or bottom. And believe it or not, it's possible to make a living picking tops and bottoms this way. Not sure who it was that said "you can't pick tops and bottoms"... but I don't think they were much of a trader.

 

Even if your trading with the trend, as I am on the GBP/USD short trade, I'm still picking tops and bottoms. I'm picking the top of a retracement in a larger bearish swing, and i'm selling at that point.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Yea, as things keep moving, I'm seeing the opportunity for an AUD/CAD long trade likely becoming THE TRADE of the week for next week.

 

Reason is, AUD/USD looks like it's coming into the most significant support it'll see from now until parity. I've discussed the reasons for a bullish bias on AUD/USD over the last day or so, so I won't go into much now.

 

But, why AUD/CAD?

 

Well, take a look at a monthly chart of the USD/CAD. It has hit support last month (september), and made a bit of a pinbar type candle. It's not the strongest loooking pinbar type candle, but it is one nevertheless. And, it's on a monthly TF, so that's really makes a difference.

 

Also, look at the 1 hr chart from today on the USD/CAD. we pretty much came to a previous U.S. session low from many days ago, and now bounced up after the NFP prompted selloff.

 

To me, i'm seeing USD/CAD come back upwards to retest the highs of this week, and i'm seeing AUD/USD move upwards to retest at least 1.0275.

 

well, as I like to trade the strongest against the weakest, the AUD/CAD should be the one to set up better than anything else as we start this next week.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, I just got in a big more in both AUD/CAD and AUD/USD.

 

a few pips off the low of each. we'll see. I almost am sure I will be carrying most of these trades (if not all of them) over the weekend. If I was holding a euro pair, I would maybe worry due to all the news and such that has been coming out of europe that can affect the currency price...but other than the euro, there ireally isn't any deep economic instability anywhere, therefore unless a war is declared in those areas over this weekend, the risk associated with holding a trade over the weekend is minimal.

 

Besides if anyone here has a 401k, you hold trades over the weekend all the time. Some people shy away from it, but it still is just a matter of risk assessment. I wouldn't want to hold a euro pair over the weekend, but the rest of the majors, i don't see an issue.

[ForexTraderX 10]

And now, the USD/CAD is making a significant pinbar on the daily chart.

 

Yea, AUD/CAD should be THE trade of the week for along next week, and even USD/CAD won't be a bad long come this sunday/monday

[ForexTraderX 10]

Wow....lots of markets at inflection points here... I just got short the EUR/AUD at 1.2792.

 

very small risk, considering how many other similar (correlated) markets I am trading the same way, but worth a small entry short IMO.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Here's an updated chart of the AUD/USD. As it turns out, they did gun for the lowest level. I should have known that (for reasons i may cover at a later time), but the most important distinction to draw is "the best level" is so far holding well....

 

here's that chart:

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, the USD/CAD for a long seems to be the best opportunity for today.

 

The price action in the AUD/USD and AUD/CAD is not looking as good as I would have hoped for at this stage of the week, so despite my bullish personal feelings, price just isn't behaving like I would normally see if it were going to take off. I'm still long, but fully aware of the fact that this is not nearly as good of a long situation as it was last friday when i entered the trades.

 

USD/CAD is good for a long really anywere below 9780, but 9765, 9755, and 9747 (as well as the friday low) are all great places for an entry IMO.

[ForexTraderX 10]

AUD/USD just pushed a few pips below the low of the day, and a decently high volume spike formed on the 15 min chart with a pinbar candle.... i got in a bit longer, but not much. again, overall PA doesn't look great, though the situation and potential strength of the support, not to mention the very tight reward:risk I can take on such an entry, it justifies the risks.

 

entry was taken long at 1.0157

[ForexTraderX 10]

Also, of the two pairs, AUD/USD and AUD/CAD, the price action and cross market analysis looks better on the AUD/CAD on both counts. Also even more significant level than for the AUD/USD... but will probably need AUD/USD to bounce a big upwards if we are going to see much more than consolidation in AUD/CAD, IMO

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, maybe the AUD/USD actually. here's a chart of price action and volume just a few moments ago...

[ForexTraderX 10]

Hmmm... actually, this AUD/XXX long trade may work out pretty well. Was reviewing some of the news releases on bloomberg over the weekend, and it turns out that overall sentiment seems to lean toward oversold conditions. Basically, opinions are that even with the rate decrease, the AUD is still the best of the top credit rated soverigens in terms of interest rates and bond yields, etc. In fact, no one else comes close, and because the rate decrease does not take really much away from the fact that AUD is the only place with the economic and financial stability, considering debt as well, and then also rate of return for bonds, that exists in it's class.

 

So, this could be a serious short term bottom, could see a rally of a few hundered pips even. I don't think we'll see as much as some folks do, but say, 80-100? sure, we could absolutly be good for something like that.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Also, USD/JPY looks decent as well. Just got long here at 78.45, with a 20-30 pip stop, and a target that will be determined as price action develops.

 

EDIT: actually, right here at 78.35 IS probably the best place to get long today on the USD/JPY. I just took another long here, at 78.35 right now.

Edited October 8, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[ForexTraderX 10]

As I said a page or 2 ago (last friday), I'd be looking for a top of the week around 1.5890-1.5930ish....

 

Well, here's a pic of the high of the week so far (my broker opens earlier than most other brokers, so if you don't see the spike up to 1.5900 on your charts, well, that's why)

 

And from there, we've just been selling, selling selling off.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Just took another AUD long, this time against JPY.

 

if USD/JPY is strong, the AUD/JPY should do even better. long from 79.55-79.70

[ForexTraderX 10]

Not exactly sure, but looks like the move i've been stalking for the last day or 2 may be breaking right now. AUD/USD at 1.0170 and moving up strong, other AUD pairs off their lows, and moving up.

 

GOsh, it's always nice when such a thing works out, but still too early to tell. Though, it's looking good from here, for now.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, the USD/JPY long didn't work out so well... but still pretty satisfied with what I have on right now. Probably won't be taking any more positions today.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Seems I got in the USD/JPY bit too early, but I'm taking one more stab at it... in around 78.18ish.

 

This will be the last attempt. volume analysis show it's at a critical point, and i'm bullish on the USD/JPY over all, so 1 more attempt at it here is worth the risk IMO.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Huh... seems like the AUD/XXX trades are indeed starting to work themselves out.

 

Kinda cool. I hope this continues for at least another 20-30 pips. It could do a lot better than that, but 20-30 would be a nice place for me to take 1/3 or 1/2 off, and let the rest try for a further target.

 

Anyway, it could still all reverse today, and this whole trading opportunity will have been for naught, but, so far so good.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, not my ideal day, but not bad either. wish I had held the GBP/AUD short for a longer time, considering it's dropped 160+ pips from the high of this week so far.

 

Anyway, going to continue to holdthe AUD/XXX trades (the remaining positions anyway) into the asian session, unless of course they hit their targets while i'm away.

 

I'm not sure if i'll be trading much more this week, or posting up here, but if not i'll be around in the next couple of weeks.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Unfortunatly, i'm not so sure i'm going to get the great move in the AUD/XXX I was originally expecting. It still could happen, sure, but as of now i'm not really willing to take the risk, particularly considering the longer term charts of the weekly and monthly AUD/XXX, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, look bearish, and the COT data as I interpret it are not showing extreme readings or divergence or some other larger picture data that would help convince me that a bigger move was really likely.

 

This being said, the bounce pretty much occured as I figured it would. This is something that is good to keep in mind when coming into levels of very significant, long running, support/resistance. yearly highs and lows, quarterly highs and lows... stuff like that. An overextended market heading into a significant high usually will turn around for a retracement, if not a full blown reversal.

 

Just check the high of the GBP/USD this last month or so, and compare that with the high it made back in april...and then look at what happened after the 1.6300 high was broken by a few pips. These are the types of setups that I REALLY look for. Unfortunatly, I was too early with my GBP/USD analysis by about 2 weeks. After last week, I wasn't confident enough to take it and hold it due to getting chopped around the last 2 weeks. However, the analysis was right on, just my head got in the way. This is why trading can really be hard... It's quite a task to learn how to really understand and correctly determine good trading opportunities... but actually trading them well is significantly more complex.

 

So, over alll this was a lot of work for very little gain (if any). At least I'm up for the week, and will be looking for the next idea today. My biggest regret is not holding the GBP/AUD short I had nailed so darn successfully well... should have taken 100+ pips on it, instead settled for 20-30, trading around the position for a little while. Oh well, such is trading.

[ForexTraderX 10]

GBP/USD short looks good from 1.6135-1.6140, maybe with a 35-45 pip stop, 55 pip target, and then 1.6155-1.6160, with a 45 pip stop, and an 80 pip target.

 

I'll be looking for those areas today to take a trade.

 

EDIT: Whoops! I mean 1.6035-6040, and 6055-6060.

Edited October 8, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, there it goes, the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY broke up strong. AUD/CAD not bad either. Should have held them of course. I will have to work on a few things in terms of psychology, and deconstruct the various reasons why I tend to get shaken out of these types of opportunities much earlier that I should, considering I was almost perfectly correct in what could happen and how it would work.

 

This will take some time... and finding an answer will not make it able for me to act on it now, but it happens all the time, and it's something I think i'll commit to working on as we start the new year in january.

 

P.S. GBP/USD just hit the price that I want to sell it at 1.6040, so I did just that. we'll see if it keeps moving up to my 2nd order, or if it just dropps from here.

 

Time, as always, will tell.

[ForexTraderX 10]

ok, well, USD/CAD is in the "buy zone" for me, and it will be from here, down to about 0.9695, with stops a bit below that. Not saying I'm holding for the entire 55+ pip range that I will look to get long in... in fact, i got a small order long already.

 

However, I'll say this. I would love to see some significant pinbar or bullish engulfing candle form on a 1 hr chart, with high volume compared to orher 1hr candles of the session and the day.

 

This is kinda a tricky one now... I was more sure about it yesterday, but price action has developed that I feel i'm trading more against a movement than with a turning point.

 

With this, I will need to see either some clear indication of impending supply exhaustion, or I will need to get an incredible reward:risk ratio (like, risking 12 pips to make 60, etc)

 

Ideally, BOTH of these things

 

At any rate, 9755, and 9736 are my higher entry points that I'm considering, and then 9705-9700 would be next. After that, i'd be done looking for a trade.

 

a good target would be anywhere 9800+, but it may not get there, so I'd manage it based on developing price action.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, as I posted earlier, I wanted 9755 in the USD/CAD for a long, and 1.6035-40 in the GBP/USD for a short, and i've got something in both now.

 

neither is looking particularly grand at the moment, but, neither looks like it is likely to move against me either. Both look like price action is slightly in my favor... so, maybe they work out.

 

Hope so anyway!