Watch A Typical Day Of A Real Day Trader

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, that strong move up in the GBP/USD may be it for this short GBP/USD trade, at lest for now. that is exactly the type of move that I don't want to be looking to fade at this point in time.

 

Now, if we quickly sell off from here, I may get back in, but for now, I'm leaving it alone, and will let stop out what I already have, but won't be taking any more on the gbp/usd.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, I may have spoken too soon on that GBP/USD. looked at the charts again, and we could definately bee seeing a top here. I will wait for this 30 min to close, then reconsider.

 

I still will hold a short bias unless we can somehow get to 1.6170+, as I stated earlier, but if we push above 1.6130-40, i'm primarily loooking to scale out, rather than in. Such a move above those prices would be, not in my best interest to continue to hold a full position or consider getting bigger. only smaller.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Alright, i'm loooking to get long here on AUD/USD more aggressively now. It looks like we very well have made a short term bottom. Wouldn't be surprised if we move up from 1.0210 to revisit the high around 1.0240 now.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Ok. So, unless the news releases in about 2 hours and 20 minutes really changes things, It looks like that was probably the worst of it.

 

Seems alll trades are likely to move my direction now, but most likley is the AUD/USD, followed by the GBP/AUD, and the GBP/USD is still the least likley to work out, but forom this point now, all looks pretty good.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, it looks like the GBP/USD is now the best looking trade of the bunch.

 

Shouldn't be surprising to me, considering it is with the trend and not counter trend, but nevertheless, earlier price action had AUD/USD looking like the better trade.

 

Now, if anyone looks at a 1 hr chart of the GBP/USD, it's pretty clear that it's about to start selling off during the next few hours. Time to sit back and hold on it seems.

[ForexTraderX 10]

The problem I now seem to have is the AUD/USD...but, this is where cutting losers off quick and letting winners ride comes into play.

 

I will look to close out most of the AUD/USD long trade if we drop much more.

 

However, the GBP/USD I have no intention of closing, probably not for another 30 pips at least, and then I will let some of it run for another 75-85 pips.

 

Things are looking good now, and I'm completely prepared to get out or in as needed.

[ForexTraderX 10]

I'm honestly somewhat doubtful that the GBP/USD will be able to move up much more today, but if it does start moving back up towards its high of the day so far, getting short from 1.6118-1.6126 would probably be a nice level to consider getting a bigger position on.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Wow...looking at the 1hr charts on the GBP/USD.

 

I don't often say this, but I can't think of a single reason why anyone would be getting long at this point, or if they are day trading and looking to be out of a GBP trade within the next 24 hours or 50 pips, Again, I think short is kind of a no brainer....at least I feel that way as I stare at this huge 1hr pinbar...

 

of course, the news COULD change that. Not too likley, but other than the upcoming U.K. data releases, I realy can't see any other likley outcome for the GBP/USD other than short to at least 1.0680-1.0660... but more likely down to 1.0640ish.

Edited October 4, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, I decided to close out my AUD/USD long trade. we are coming into some possible minor resistance, but more importantly, I was expecting a bigger move by now, and the truth is I said price would get to at least 1.0235... and it did so.

 

I still think a move upwards is more likley than downwards, but I had a pretty good size position for my comfort level, and i'm already short GBP/AUD and GBP/USD... I didn't want to become too reliant on a strong AUD and weak GBP for my day to go well.

 

Also, it IS counter trend trade, and for those, I expect quick resolution without much hesitation. This move for the AUD/USD is taking too long. I'd rather be out and safe than in an worried, regardlesss of the final outcome.

 

At any rate, i'm 100% flat now on aud/usd... pretty much a BE over all on the open positions on AUD/USD.

 

I will look to re-enter possibly around 1.205, or still my ideal is near the low of today.

 

But, other than that, I'm probably down with AUD/USD long for now.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Also, just closed out the entire GBP/AUD short. Again, the original move I was looking for already occured, and this move down from 1.5790ish has not looked like much of an impulse move. Finally, we are hitting a potential support level around 5760.

 

Just not something I'm comfortable with holding as we move into the U.S. session.

 

Again, probably a good trade, but I've alreayd put enough risk out on the line for one day... now it's time for me to dial back and wait for either optimal levels, or for some resolution to the GBP/USD, which is with the trend, and has the 1hr price action to back up my belief in a continued drop in price.

[ForexTraderX 10]

selling seems to be taking over here in the GBP/USD. I posted a chart to show what I"m talking about.... this is a good sign for shorting by the way.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, there was the news release for the GBP... seems there is no major policy change...central bank keeping rates and such at what they currently are.

 

Unfortuantly, I was not keeping up with the headlines to see what expectations really were... usually that type of thing is noticeable if I do a full sentiment analysis. Unforuantly, I didn't do that for this trade... but over all, it's more neutral than anything else. Unless the minutes release says something that materially changes this.... the news over all in this case shouldn't have too much affect on this short trade.

 

Furthermore, it looks like whoever sold out short around 1.6120-1.6134 is defending their short position from around 1.6120. I mean, i suppose any orders could be there to stop the market from moving up, but considering stops were run earlier about an hour after london opened, and the market sold off, it's likley that some of the same sellers are now positioning an additional large block of sell orders at the 6120 zone, preventing price from moiving up to take out their stops.

 

Time will tell if this is somewhat true or not, but from the price action showing over the last few minutes, it seems a likely possibility.

[ForexTraderX 10]

At this point, I think the best thing that could happen would be for disappointing U.S. employment figures or some otherwise bad news for europe. Something that stimulates a risk off rally.

 

So far, not bad, but if we can get a negative U.S. data release, that should do it for this trade... and I'll be able to finish the day with a new equity high for the week.

[ForexTraderX 10]

If we can break and hold below this 1.6110, we have one more minor support trendlin at about 1.6098...

 

after that, nothing really until we retest near the low of the week, at 1.6070ish.

[ForexTraderX 10]

well, looks like the GBP/USD is about to really rip off to the downside.... it's still finding some support at 6105, but rice action and volume, not to mention the bigger picture and longer time fram analysis shows a strong short bias.

 

Almost any way a person looks at it, the GBP/USD short here is probably a good trade.

 

would love to see us push down int 1.6070 pretty quick, so I can take half off, and then let the rest coast down to 1.6045ish.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, Draghi's comments regarding the euro have just about killed what was looking like such a nice trade. As I said, a news related catalyst would be likley the only thing that could push this trade against me, and that's pretty much what happened. It's not done yet, but at this point, I'm thinking damage control more than anything else.

 

A bit of a disappointment, but the next hour or so may help push things back my direction. ALthough unless we make a significant reversal in price action, i'll be looking to get out a bit at a time as I find favorable places to do so.

 

Fact is, my bias is still short, as I said unless we could hit into and above the 1.6170 zone, i'm looking for short only, but I never expected price to pull back so deep into that potenntial range.

 

Although it does look to be possibly reversing here, i'm not getting any more invested in this other than to start scaling out.

 

Fact is, if we can get up to 1.6200 and hold that, i'd start looking for long opportunities... we have a very high potential to reverse downwards here, but nevertheless, it's time for me to start looking how to get out of this trade, rather than how to make more with it.

Edited October 4, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, since the AUD/USD just pushed down below the london session low of 1.0205, I decided to get long the AUD/USD.

 

the primary problem today it seems (besides the new event) was getting in the market a bit too early. At any rate, the trades I have on seem to be moving in the right direction now.

 

If I could keep todays losses to under 2%, It'll feel like a decent save to an otherwise frustrating day.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, not my favorite way to end a week, but profit is profit.

 

Wanted to post up right now regarding an opportunity i'm seeing right now in the AUD/USD.

 

This is something I spoke about yesterday, with regards to the AUD/USD really being close to some very critical levels. Actually, the AUD/USD pretty much went pip for pip with where I was thinking it would in terms of potential targets. Only problem was, it never really came back down to a price that I really wanted.

 

However, looks like about, oh, 10 minutes ago, we pretty much dropped down to match yesterdays U.S. session lows, at around 1.0204. Well, the AUD/USD dropped down to 1.0205, and I just got long at 0207 and 0211. I have a larger order down around 1.0186 (yesterdays low), and then one more at the low of the support from a few months ago, around 1.0165.

 

These are all price levels that will have a disproportionately large amount of orders around them (both buy and sell orders), so the liquidity will be there for larger players to get in and out without pushing the market against them with their very large orders.

 

Anyway, I'll basically be taking stabs at the AUD/USD to the longside anywhere from 1.0210, down 50 pips to about 1.0160. After that point, well, I'll probably be looking to get short as we push towards 1.00, where again I would consider getting long.

 

Just wanted to point this one out, since we are litterally just a few pips away from what could be the low of the next couple days in the AUD/USD. (though I tend to think 1.0185 or 1.0165 will be more likley. Either one of those would not surprise me at all if they were the low for 150-200 pips or more. In fact, i'd be somewhat surprised if we didn't bounce at least 100 pips off of one or the other)

[ForexTraderX 10]

Also, the GBP/USD again looks good to short. I think we'll move down to at least 1.6140-1.6130.

 

here's a chart with some explanation of why I think it's good, etc.

 

Also, the AUD/CAD looks great for a long right now, as does the GBP/AUD look for a short.

 

Actually there's a whole lot of markets coming to some pretty critical points. The AUD/CAD long might be the best of all that i've seen this week.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Yea, either the AUD/CAD for a long, for the GBP/USD for a short is probably the best, gbp/usd is great because it's going with the trend to a degree...the uptrend went parabolic, and is now broken, this is a much deeper retracement to that broken move than I had thought, but it is an A+ setup IMO.

 

I was short from about 1.6205, covered too early for a little profit, and got back in bigger now.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Position Summary:

 

Ok, here is what I'm in right now:

 

GBP/USD short from around 1.6185-1.6200

 

GBP/AUD short from between 1.5820-1.5850

 

AUD/USD long from around 1.0205 - 1.0215

 

AUD/CAD long from around 9973-9980

[ForexTraderX 10]

GBP/USD should really push straight through downward towards 1.6140-1.6090. 1.6140 was the high of 10/3, 1.6104 is the U.S. session lows from 10/4, 1.6094 is the europe session lows of 10/4, and 6080 is the asian session lows, with 6071 and 6066 being the lows of wednesday and thursday. Not to mention 6100 is a major psych number (as 6200 was today)

 

so, considering the concentration of session and daily lows between 6066 and 6104, there's about a 38 pip range with plenty of opportunity for price to bounce.

 

Personally, I probably wont take many long trades there (if any) due to the fact that we are very high in price, a parabolic move was how we came into this previous multi-month high, and now that parabolic move is broken.

 

The rule of thumb is, when a parabolic move breaks, plan on it retracing back to the origin point. (in this case down anywhere from 5800-5300)

 

That's not to say we couldn't double top out up towards 6300, or that the drop back down to 5800 is a guarantee. But, unless and untill we see a day that can decisively push price upwards (like yesterday did. that was decisive), we have seen a strong, deep retracement, but it would take at least 1 additional strong day upwards for me to step back and strongly consider the possibility of further upward movement

 

At very least, I'm looking to take some profits and make this a risk free trade by around 6145-6150.

 

I don't anticipate much problem in doing that.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Taking a harder look at AUD/CAD, i'm noticing we've had some really critical, multi-year support that we are coming up to...in fac,t it's been support or resistance going back at least to Nov of 2010.

 

We are just blow parity for the first time in about 5 months, and the A/C is fairly over-extended in this drop, having sold off nearly 300 pips in only 7 days, without a single "up" day.

 

There are several price levels i'm looking at, actually, right here at 9970-75 is good. then better still down at 0.9956 is the low for may. Then we have a year ago october low at 0.9939, and then a multi year low at 9917.

 

With the fact that this market has made an incredibly steep drop off in the last 7 days, and is coming into an area that has seen support for over a year now, and the last time it was at this price level, it rallied well over 600 pips....

 

well, It think it's safe to speculate on a bounce. I already am, that's for sure.

 

I think 1.0050-1.0100 is a really likely target. I'll be looking to take some profits probably just before that area, as well as near the top of it, and maybe a final target just before 1.0150.

 

This is probably going to be the best opportunity coming into this next week, IMO.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Here's a chart of that cool AUD/CAD opportunity that is setting up right now...

[ForexTraderX 10]

Also, given everything I'm seeing with multiple major currency markets coming into significant S/R levels....some even coming into multi-month support or resistance, I'm gonna go ahead and say if we haven't already seen the high of the GBP/AUD, then the first part of next week (say, the first 48 hours of trading), we will see the high of the week for GBP/AUD between the price of 1.5890-1.5925. That's about a 45 pip range, but I really feel strongly about a rally in the AUD, and a selloff in the GBP.

 

Furthermore, this level is one that stands " on its own" in the GBP/AUD market. One that is clearly seen by anyone looking at a daily chart as a price level of previous support, and levels like that often act as resistance when price returns back to them a long time later... particularly if the move up towards the level is over-extended (which this one is.)

 

Here is a chart of the possible resistance levels as we come into this next week. There are 4 of them. I will be looking to get short at each and every one of them, for a move down to at least 1.5740 (that's between 150 pips and 200 pips, depending on which resistnce level holds)

 

Also, I may discuss a strategy that could give a 5:1 or even 10:1 reward:risk opportunity in the AUD/CAD, if it sets up just right.