Watch A Typical Day Of A Real Day Trader

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, I thought the GBP/USD would be a straight shot down, but it looks like it really did need a retest of the high of the day so far.

 

Now that it hit that, about 4 minutes ago, I do expect a bit of a selloff, however, we I may have to wait until euro news is realeased in about 40 min, or even until the first hour of so of the U.S. session.

 

That being said, it may just continue on up... considering the tight price consolidation we have right around the 6200 level.

 

I'm still short of course, but would like to see greater compelling price action on the GBP/USD to demonstrate a likely move downward. ANd as of right now, i'm not seeing much...

 

EDIT: on 2nd thought, running stops at the daily high might have been exactly what the market needed in order to trigger some larger selling interest. We are still trading in this uninspired 20 pip range, but at least there is a possibility of downward momentum building.

 

not my favorite type of market conditions to trade in, but at this point I have no substantial reason to justify exiting for the small loss that my open positions currently have, so it looks like a bit more waiting around for now.

Edited September 14, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, for todays trading so far, the 5 min bearish candle that was formed immediately after the GBP/USD retested the highs at 1.6206 is the highest volume candle of the day.

 

Generally, seeing a volume spike in a bearish candle after an uptrend can foreshadow a shift in short term market direction. It shows an increasing amount of sellers willing to either exit longs, or enter shorts, at market price rather than at limit. Orders executed at market usually denotes a degree of "need" more than limit orders.

 

And when a market is hitting a new high after several significant bullish days, but suddenly sellers jump to sell when it makes new highs...this is often a signal of possible direction change in the short term.

 

Of course, it's not 100%...but seeing this type of volume and price action gives me further reason to continue to hold my short.

[ForexTraderX 10]

With regard to the GBP/USD short potential, I will be paying close attention to any move that retests the most recent high around 1.6206. London will often reverse any trend established during the asian sessions, and of course stops would be at 1.6206 and higher...

thus providing any needed liquidity for a larger player to take profits on a long, or get short, with minimal slippage.

 

Fact is, i'm short both markets now, but both are very small, inconsequential size trades. I will increase them should I see a move that breaks the highs of the day so far, but is then quickly reversed on above average volume (tick based volume is not ideal, but it's a good proxy)... best of all if such a situation were to unfold within the first hour or so of londons opening.

 

time will tell.

 

 

It's always nice to post a price level, and see the market touch it exactly to the pip, and then turn exactly as anticipated. It's also not often it happens that well, but at very least I can say 1.6206 was the high of the london session thus far, and it was good for about a 20 pip selloff.

 

i'm still holding short, but the trade is starting to look a bit better now.

[ForexTraderX 10]

And now it seems like the NZD/USD is starting to move my way also. might turn out to be a decent finish to the week if these moves can continue.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, as it turned out, that 20 pip swing in the GBP/USD I mentioned earlier was about all it did before taking off for the next major level. Ended up stopping out on that.

 

the NZD/USD worked out slightly better. I'm feeling tired as I ususally do when friday rolls around, so I closed it out a bit early, but peace of mind and a locked in profit (no matter how small) is worth the trade off for me (I am looking forward to my weekend)

 

Not really the best example of A+ trading... as I really underestimated the effect of this new Heli Ben Stimulus. I figured the moves had been mostly priced in going into todays session, but I couldn't have been more incorrect.

 

Fortunately, I bet small going into such counter trend type trades, so the initial losses wouldn't really be of consequence, and I was able to recover it by the end of todays trading.

 

A somewhat slow week over all for me, as I took the first two days off, and when I started on wednesday I was looking at a loss (from a trade that I held on friday, but was stopped out when market opened on sunday). The week stands with about a 1.6% profit, but for my actual trading that I did this week, I did about 2.2% over the past 3 days.

 

Since i'm not carrying anythiung over the weekend this time, I won't have any possibility of having to dig myself out of a hole come market open this next week.

 

I'll try to post some of my weekend analysis if I get around to it. I do hope some of you are finding this thread insightful or helpful. if there are any questions, i'll answer them when next post up.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, after a somewhat stress free and relaxing weekend, I'm ready to get back to the pleasant job of risking my life savings in a career that determines my income based completely on the opinions, moods, and feelings of millions of random strangers who are all simultaniously trying to bet trillions of dollars against each other (and me).

 

At any rate, at least I took the time to study the markets and I feel that something is definately afoot in terms of a significant shift in underlying market sentiment.

 

Namely - risk is coming back in vogue, and this will likely only increase over the coming months though to at least the end of the year.

 

I did a pretty detailed post up already over at the ES thread on this site... check my posts about half way down the page

 

Markets and opportunities I like the most:

 

1. Short the U.S. bond market (10 year is my favorite)

 

2. Long the U.S. stock market (S&P is my favorite)

 

3. Long the Euro (EUR/JPY I think is most likley to win out)

 

Basically, I'm looking to short the yen, possibly the dollar (though it's quite oversold), long risk currencies, best of all the euro, and my least favorite risk market is probably the Comdolls right now.

 

I made a more in depth post over on the E-mini thread. here's a link:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/9773-day-trading-e-mini-futures-708.html

[ForexTraderX 10]

Here are a couple charts of the EUR/USD and the USD/JPY.\

 

Notice how the USD/JPY made a perfect pinbar (and a bit of a false breakout) last week. Also, this is about the price that BOJ has said is their "line in the sand", not to mention the overall improvement in risk sentiment and a high yen putting downward pressure on japans export based economy. For these reasons, I see both technical and fundamental reasons to support a move up in the coming weeks for the USD/JPY.

 

Furthermore, there is a chart of the EUR/USD. it too is showing some significant bullish price action, but is nearly 200 pips away from the most likely significant point of resistance.

 

Also, the Draghi euro bond announcement, combined with the Bernake QE announcement, make for two powerful fundamental reasons to believe the euro will keep moving up this week against the dollar.

 

So, we have significant weekly price action AND fundamentals supporting more bullish movement in the EUR/USD.

 

And we have significant weekly price action AND fundamentals supporting more bullish movement in the USD/JPY

 

With this being the case, I think the best currency trade of the week will be to catch a long in the EUR/JPY. I see a very clean shot for it up towards about 104.60, and then more at 105.50ish. But I don't think that'll hold for long, and I really don't see any significant resistance until at least 107-108.

 

I think this is a fairly rare opportunity that allows both for a fairly clear 250-400 pip zone where price will likely move through, but probably with 1 or 2 opportunities to get in with a pretty tight stop.

 

If we can pull down towards 102.30, I'll put a decent position on somewhere between 102.30 and 102 if price action shows slowing momentum as price pulls back to that level.

This could essentially provide a trade with a 25-45 pip stop, and a 250-300 pip 1ST target, and a 400+ pip final target. Essentially, this will provide a minimum of about 5:1 reward:risk ratio, and possibly over 10:1 reward:risk ratio.

 

If the eur/jpy dropped lower, the next place I would be looking to get in long for a significant position would be around 101.25 - 100.50. Of course, this would likely provide even a better RR. Any lower and I would have to reconsider my bullish bias, but that seems a very long way away, and very unlikely to happen anyway.

 

I think it's a fairly rare opportunity here to be able to take a trade with a 5:1 or even 10:1 payout, and have probably better than a 50% chance of hitting it.

 

Trading opportunities like this can make an entire month, so when they come along, it's best to carefully plan out the entry and risk managment aspect of it, so you can be sure not to miss the trade by either entering too early and getting stopped out, or waiting too long and missing it.

 

It needs to be a balance of carefully selected entry and stop points, with a willingness to take more than 1 entry if necessary, but with a predetermined plan that provides a maximum cutoff point both in terms of how much total will be risked on the trade opportunity (say, 2% risk over 3 entries), and at what point it will be determined a non-starter (say, daily candle closes below 100.00, move on to the next trade)

 

As for myself, I have a tiny position on now, with a big stop, but bigger target taht is better than 2:1 reward:risk. It's possible that we won't even see 102.30, and with an opportunity this good, I want to be sure to get something, even if it's just a fraction of a percent.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Also, if I had to pick a very aggressive entry on the EUR/JPY, it would be 102.65-102.50, but the most reasonable and optimal support level to get in would be between 102.30-102.00 IMO

[ForexTraderX 10]

And, not saying the above list is all inclusive of the "good opportunities" of course, but I've currently got a long trade on in the EUR/CAD, and I feel similar to the opportunities in the E/C that I do with regards to the E/J.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, so far the EUR/JPY long is up about 32 pip, and moving up strong. I really figured it would fall back down further before making this move, but it did pull back to my more aggressive possible entry point, and I was able to get in just above that point.

 

When we failed to drop down any lower than 102.60ish when the U.S. session opened, i figured that would possibly be it for the drop, and so far so good.

 

With such a strong impulse move up right now, I'm doubtful we'll see price hit 102ish before it hits 104.60-105. At any rate, seems like a good trade over all so far, even if i didn't get my ideal fill size and entry.

 

The rest seem to be doing good as well

[ForexTraderX 10]

Also, the 10 year bond futures just made a nice 1hr pinbar (I watch both the regular and extended sessions on my charts), and it's dropping. I got an entry at 132'020, and I think it's good for about 40-80 ticks without much problem or risk.

 

Anyway, it's been a good start to the week.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, the first part of the day looked perfect. Now seems as though things are slowing down quite a bit however, and pulling back.

 

So i've moved stops to various price points that even if they do all stop out, I will have made at least 0.75% for the week so far.

 

Kinda like a free ride in the EUR/JPY and the EUR/CAD.

 

One of the advantages of watching ones trades on smaller TF's is the ability to trade around a position. I rarely hold trades all the way to either their stops or their targets, but usually will take some off or put more on as I see price action developing as I like (or don't like).

 

But, it does take a fair amount of experience and desire to watch the markets to be able to manage trades as they move along, and there is the obvious downsides as well. However, I find it works well for me, and today (and friday as well considering how wrong I was on some of my market biases) is a decent example of that so far.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, as I said in an earlier post I made over the weekend regarding the weekly candle price action on the USD/JPY looking bullish, and also on the EUR/USD looking bullish, therefore the EUR/JPY being the best possible trade in the forex markets, it played out pretty much as good as I could have hoped for.

 

the ES futures and the bond futures didn't do much really, and I am not so sure either way what to expect for the next 24 hours. Of course, I will not be going long bonds or short the ES, but I will hold out establishing any position until something changes or it looks like we will see a break one way or the other.

 

I'm still holding a very small long on the EUR/JPY, and I actually kinda hope it stops out, becase I'd love to get a better, bigger fill down at 102ish.

 

Haven't checked the charts much to see if there is any great opportunities that have developed, but I doubt it, since the best ones I feel already moved, and would have to either pull back more, or move up more to be really A+, and some markets just kinda consolidated. So I'm not expecting much but i'm going to look of course. Maybe just take some "scalp" trades when the london or U.S. session open up.

 

Anyway, just one really nice example today of how daily and weekly price action can give some very powerful, very high probability signals, particularly when you can "stack" opportunities like bullish E/U + bullish U/J = extremely bullish E/J.

 

This stuff works. And if a person can get the most likely direction of the day figured out, that's really half the battle in my opinion.

[ForexTraderX 10]

I've looked over a few charts, and I can't help but get the feeling we are a bit overbought for now on the euro. I don't think this move up in risk markets is anywhere close to over, but I do think we'll see a slowdown in for at least the next 24 hours.

 

I am looking to get long pretty much anything USD, JPY, GBP, EUR against the comdolls.

 

The best plays seem to be long "risk off" markets like USD and JPY, against AUD or CAD, and then close behind is NZD.

 

So, i'm currently sitting with a very small USD/CAD long trade, and will be happy to get in for a bigger position if it can drop back to 9730-9710, with target somewhere around 9775-9800.

 

The comdolls have been weak for a little while now in general, and for the moment, the european currencies look quite overbought too. the GBP in particular has pretty much hit a very over extended price point, and has made a symmetrical high with where it previous peaked out at a few months ago. These types of moves that return to the price point from which they initially moved tend to stall a bit, particularly when the market has gone parabolic, and is over-exteneded in the short term, and the parabolic move is breaking down.

 

At any rate, seems that the crazy good bullish strength I see forming in risk markets needs a break for at least a day. I could well be wrong of course, and wouldn't be shocked if I am given my underlying bias, but for some smaller than usual positions and stops wide enough to have a piece of skin in the trade for as long as I believe my play is valid, I'll take the risk, for now.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Looks like the tone of the RBA release is a bit more hawkish than most were expecting, and it seems they have little reason onverall to take much action to change rates, or take any other action for that matter.

 

Of course some things were mentioned as possible concerrns, but overall the consensus is that there seems to be a decent balance of strength and weakness, and other than a few commoditiy prices dropping and a slightly slower china, there is little reason for them to act at this moment.

 

Pretty much same thing that's been going on for the last few months. won't help or hurt my view much, unless price starts showing otherwise as we move into the london session.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, after a trading day with almost no volitility at all, I've decided just to get out and hold off until later. the USD/CAD is showing some weakness now, and I'd rather not be in it unless it drops back down further to a level I want more, and the gbp/usd is simply bouncing in a 40ish pip range. Not something I want to be trading at the moment.

 

So, took a tiny profit, and am done for now. only market i'm interested in getting in is the USD/CAD if we drop a bit, or of course the EUR/JPY from levels discussed earlier in the thread.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, today has been primarily an excercise in frustration. However, I'm seeing things line up now a bit across multiple markets. Got long in the EUR/JPY, as I still have the conviction on the opportunity that I had over the weekend, and It seems to be making a bit of a base and being bought up from there. I was originally wanting to wait to get in at a lower price, but as I thought about it all a bit more, when a market is as strong a potential opportunity as this one, it is frequent that any retracement is shallow, and momentary.

 

With that in mind, I pulled the trigger for a position I will let run at least until about the coming london open, pending that it doesn't stop out between now and then.

 

I don't normally like to enter positions that I intend to hold as london is closing, however, I feel strong enough about this potential trade to do so.

 

It may well stop out, but I believe it's worth the risk.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, today looks like EUR/JPY should be the strongest, or EUR/USD. EUR/USD right now is at a more potentially supportive level, but EUR/JPY is more poised to move up. and, as I type this, things are taking off. strange how that happens more often than not it seems to me on this forum.

 

Anyway, the upcoming london and U.S. sessions should provide the liquidity to see EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, and probably USD/JPY push up as I spoke about earlier over the weekend before the markets opened this week.

 

We'll see, but i'm long all of them now.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Wow, got pretty lucky on that one. but then again, easing by the BOJ has continued to become more likley the higher the JPY rose against it's peers, most importantly the EUR and the USD.

 

When bernake announced QE3 last week, it was very interesting to see the USD/JPY actually show bullish price action. Both due to a flight towards risk, and due to hightened speculation that the BOJ would ease to compete, it's not any surprise that indeed short the JPY was a good trade this week, in part because of the price points at which the BOJ has said it will not let the yen get under (they were hit last week).

 

Again, there was absolutly an element of luck in my catch here (not to mention my timing), but part of the reason I've been so bearish on the JPY this week, and bullish the euro, and even the USD against the yen.

 

besides, I've got no problem taking luck like this

[ForexTraderX 10]

Very nice start to the day. London hasn't even opened, and I've almost already realized a full 1% profit, with another 3/4% running still.

 

could be a very good day, but now I can guarantee it won't be a bad day. I'll make sure I finish the sessions up at least 0.5%, thus ensuring I finish near my equity high for the week so far.

 

FUnny thing is, based on the analysis I did during the weekend, and the price levels I choose for possible entry points (including 102.65-102.50), I've had some fantastic trades.

 

It's amazing what one can do when one considers longer term time frames to develop a bias, stacks the strongest market against the weakest market in order to isolate the best possible opportunities within that bias, breaks down possible support and resistance levels based on market profile, chart patterns, candlestick patterns, etc... and then finally looks to read price action as it approaches those "possible entry points" to decide to get in or not.

 

Keep in mind, getting stopped out is not a problem if one keeps their risk low, because if the opportunity really is solid, you can afford to take 2 or 3 attempts at it, keeping a 20 - 30 pip stop, and a 100+ pip target, you can always afford to take a couple entries if need be.

 

Of course, this has to work for your style and your temperment, but it's absolutely something to consider. I do it all the freaking time.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, just got long the EUR/GBP. For those reading this thread know I've been bearish on the GBP since last week, and now that the euro has hit a critical suppport level and is in fact being supported, but the GBP has been over extended, and is now also consolidating, and has not yet made any significant retraccement, but the EUR/GBP also has come to a nice support level and is bouncing...

 

 

It makes a long eur/gbp trade a pretty decent choice for me.

 

Essentially it works like this: I'm very bullish on the EUR/USD.

 

I'm slightly or bearish on the GBP/USD.

 

Therefore, I should be very happily bullish on the EUR/GBP.

 

May not work out for me, but well worth the risk.

[ForexTraderX 10]

hey folks, if anyone is interested i'm on skype this evening just hanging out, watching markets, picking trades, etc.

 

hit me up if you wanna chat about trading, or ask any questions, or whatever.

 

my skype id is:

 

forextraderx

[henry1000 10]

About 2 days ago, there was one heck of a good trading opportunity in the EUR/CAD.

 

It was one of those days, that the market just moves relentlessly in one direction. However, many people may have missed the opportunity, because it had in fact moved relentlessly in one direction the day prior, and "usually", after strong one directional moves

 

This may not always be able to be "predicted" ahead of time... but here is a specific concept that any trader can make good use of. It does require some discretion, and it does require some patience... but it's about as "no lose" a situation as one will find in the forex markets.

 

Essentially, it is this:

 

Find two pairs comprised of 3 different currencies, with both pairs showing clear evidence of moving in a particular direction (either both up, or both down)... then look to take the strongest market long against the weakest market.

....

 

Thank You

This is an excellent method for picking the strongest and weakest currencies for the Forex pair to trade.

 

I like your style of trading and the amount of risk you typically take on a trade.

 

I personally would prefer intraday trading because of the tighter stops and quicker feed back from the market.

 

1.

On your charts showing the horizontal Market Profile bars what does green and red

mean ?

Does it mean up volume for gree and down volume for red ?

 

2.

What time zone are you trading in ? I saw your spreadsheet table showing account performance for 9-6-2012 showing entry and exit times but I wasn't sure what time zone that was for. Also I was trying to match up your post times with my Forex charts but I wasn't sure what your time zone was.

 

3.

And what chart program are you using to see market profile and VSA ?

[henry1000 10]

Very nice start to the day. London hasn't even opened, and I've almost already realized a full 1% profit, with another 3/4% running still.

 

could be a very good day, but now I can guarantee it won't be a bad day. I'll make sure I finish the sessions up at least 0.5%, thus ensuring I finish near my equity high for the week so far.

 

FUnny thing is, based on the analysis I did during the weekend, and the price levels I choose for possible entry points (including 102.65-102.50), I've had some fantastic trades.

 

It's amazing what one can do when one considers longer term time frames to develop a bias, stacks the strongest market against the weakest market in order to isolate the best possible opportunities within that bias, breaks down possible support and resistance levels based on market profile, chart patterns, candlestick patterns, etc... and then finally looks to read price action as it approaches those "possible entry points" to decide to get in or not.

 

Keep in mind, getting stopped out is not a problem if one keeps their risk low, because if the opportunity really is solid, you can afford to take 2 or 3 attempts at it, keeping a 20 - 30 pip stop, and a 100+ pip target, you can always afford to take a couple entries if need be.

 

Of course, this has to work for your style and your temperment, but it's absolutely something to consider. I do it all the freaking time.

 

 

Congratulations on your great trades and thanks for the explanations of your thought processes.

[ForexTraderX 10]

So, my network crashed early on in the trading day, and I had to finish out on an iphone. Very frustrading, not to mention it was quite a bit of a handicap on my trading.

 

However, the good news is that the EUR/JPY pulled back to my ideal entry point between 102 and 102.30. I got long of course, and will look to take something of when we retest the highs of today.

 

Closed trades up about 1.5%, still have 2 trades open (usd/jpy long and eur/jpy long of course)

 

will se how it all works out later on.

 

Again, this was an opportunity that didn't fully crystalize until today, though It was determined a good opportunity last weekend, and did provide some nice moves in the meanwhile.

 

but today was the pullback tothe ideal level, so lets see how it ends up playing out.