RIMM Analysis

[minoo 11]

Is RIMM now worth investing into

 

Would like to try Averaging Into from this Level

(@7:28 EST 11:22)

 

Is this now a good contarian and technical stock or still a falling knife ? ?

 

Thankyou Minoo

[minoo 11]

Waited patiently almost to the end for better Average In price

But the Stock didnot much falter from the support level

 

Wanted to get in just in case it Gaps up Monday AM

But hope it give a better average instead to roll some more in at lower price

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Quick Note

Pre Market was negative so had stops below yesterday lows to lighten the position a bit

and Got in below 7 at Area Support. (Refer Chart)

 

I took the entries even though Net vol of RIMM was still negative & the stock was already over 3.5% down. As ES was coming to support at 1343.5 with $Tick picking up, so took some quick positions into RIMM as I was gettting good entry just below 7 perhaps an historical low.

 

On Day Chat there is potential to form 2B Signal (lower low formed with momentum upswing)

[minoo 11]

The previous positions were averaged in (long) when the Net Vol was negative so stops were kept tight. This could also be classed as bottom fishing so I will trail them tight till Net Vol becomes postive (as I went long) in direction of trade in short-term, intermediate and daily time frames. (top right of windows) Ideally to keep the whole position and not scale out $Tick need to remains mostly in positive territory

 

ES has just filled the Gap from the Mean Reversion Fib line (orange), so out now & done with futures (Refer Chart)

 

Hopefully RIMM consolidates here so giving it some room (stops now below S2 & 7)

(I simply loose interest in the stocks once my ES day trading is done)

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Please Refer to chart for

Breakeven exit

Stop and

ReEntry

 

Once they can see your stops, most probably in the afternoon they will just get trodden over if in their range. Though manage to better my Re Entry Level shown in charts

 

Previously When I made profit in counter to Market Internal (MI) conformance, I didnot locked in profit tighter for the afternoon lul & hence let some profit slip by

 

MI are still on the negative side so tight stops

$Tick and Net Vol of RIMM are nicely positive for the time being

 

Will see if they give me another chance to Stop Out at BE and Average In at lower Prices or Scale In at higher prices.

 

Thankyou

Minoo

 

(Not sure why my margin is showing so low though ?)

[minoo 11]

Please read this thread for AM Update & Trading

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/stock-trading-laboratory/13306-facebook-thread-analysis-investment-5.html#post155086

 

In Short: Had PC problems today and also anticipated Big News TradingDay so concentrated in Daytrading the ES in the AM today

 

Had some holding in RIMM, saw price rise a bit in the pre-market, tighten stops on open to near BE level and got out.

 

Later took some positions in RIMM at lower levels just above support as Net Vol started to roll in favour of long-trade and already established positive Market Internals Data with Indices rising

So nice price divergence with non-price data confirmation and took the lagging longs

Didnot give much chance to Average-In the stock, But Scaled In positions in direction of MI & Indices Conformance on positive Net Vol opportunities

 

Sorry no timely charts update today but will post here some to let them do the rest.

 

Goodnight Minoo

[minoo 11]

In Short

Took some off at the Opening on 1st Target as market had Gaped up

Got sound alert at Gap fill & roll in what I took off at the opening Target

Refer Charts

 

I didnot trade much today as some how felt some BIAS for market correction at my pre market preparation. Note I took the 1st target still on +ve Net Vol (not according to my plan but jotted it & still took it. I strive to stay clear of BIAS or stay out.

So COP'd it & went out in the Evening (UK time)

 

COP: Conciously Out Position

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Yesterdays Negative BIAS worked out today

RIMM though didnot become much negative in the pre-market, so didnot exit than

 

But Market Internals were too negative on US Open so took exit at first lower level

(Refer Chart)

 

Didnot had much opportunity to trade ES in the opening as prices were not much falling neither $Tick was getting much in extreme negative territory; Perhaps it will test or retest the VWAP

 

Once RIMM reached S3 got an sound alert and I started to trail entry as it went below S3

(One realy need to monitor how vol acts at extreme levels in short term and medium term time frame; Relative vol play of short term and mid term traders gives an good indication; I enjoy Bottom fishing sometimes)

 

Refer charts for multiple entries when Vol was negative at extreme low levels and when it became increasing positive.

 

As I post this Locked in some profit at S2

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Ok, here are the Entry Charts!

 

Thanks & Enjoy the Weekend.

Minoo

 

Note: 1st Entry against the Net Vol; I started to trail it lower when the stock went below S3 (sound alert) and Down Over 5% with Divergence in $Tick Forming so I let it trigger

Edited July 20, 2012 by minoo

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Your a brave soul!

 

MMS

[minoo 11]

Vol inflow at the EoD has been consecutively been positive for the last couple of EOD close.

 

I continue the same drill on open take profit at first resistance pivot areas

and

EoD if Net Vol is positive at Previous Low I take position

Though I didnot like the daily bar pattern formed today, I did according to Vol & Plan

 

Note: There is lot of news driven bearish sentiment in the market

[minoo 11]

Not much I could do with RIMM at openning

Note: Today the Market Internals were Strongly Positive at Session Open

(so given the chance I would have hold at 1st Target most probably)

 

Prices came down to Yesterdays Low (My last Entry level) in the opening auction

Than Tested the support area successfully from above and took off north towards Previous High (PH)

Locked in profit at 3% & trailed it till Net Vol turn negative approaching PH

 

Huge ammount of negative Vol piled in, nearing Previous High so just went flat on Stocks

 

Refer to annotated chart

 

Goodnight Minoo

[minoo 11]

The Market Internals again were very positive today, $Tick struggled to deep below zero in the opening hour auction

ES and Rimm failed to fill their respective Day Gaps Below (indicating to possible parabola pattern, News driven again Upward today)

 

RIMM didnot deep even a cent below 7.00 (Support at such round figure in opeing with increasingly strong market internals meant an impending lift-off)

Bearing in mind all this started since yesterday on Euro News so the Parabola Pattern will Play out but suspended due to Eurolimpics)

 

Took my time to pull long on Rimm as Net Vol became positive over 7.05 & took it off around the 7.34 mark, Flat again (Refer Chart, Daily Level)

 

Ok guys, I have done my bit, now Enjoy the Opening Ceremony!

 

Thanks Minoo

[minoo 11]

Is RIMM fundamentally stronger than it appears to be technical on chart

ie Is it worth getting into RIMM from investment perspective, do you see any value in it ? at this lows (Is price below its net worth ? ?)

 

Essential Read on RIMM, Dont ignore the readers comments below this Article

 

Is Research In Motion A Sum-Of-Parts Deal? - Seeking Alpha

 

Is it 'Time' to start investing into this stock with the earlier daytrading profits made. Could this be played as an swing trade as Possible takeover target ? ? (shares price below its intinsic value)

 

Note: Imminent News Release on Thursday

[minoo 11]

Didnot post the chart with the last comment as I want to shift focus to swing trading the stock. Yes I did took some off at my daytrading targets but kept the rest to swing.

Today book first swing style profit and scale up the swing stops & protection. I hope this is not confusing

 

Chart 1 Entries for both Scalp and Swing (25 Sept, indicated by blue arrows)

 

Chart 2 Daytrading Profit (25 Sept)

 

Chart 3 First Swing part profit (2nd Oct)

After price came to my target & Net Vol turned Negative

(Time, Date, %gain, Net Vol, etc are on charts)

 

I look at pre-opening trading & RTH opening session market internals data to decide whether to daytrade stocks or not. I like to daytrade when market internal data at RTH Session Open has comparative confluence and conformance with the pre-market acitivity

 

I do not want to mention hedging with option or when I am using option instead of just stop loss as its difficult to explain for me. Best to Keep it Simple and Short.

 

Note: Historically months of May and Oct I play cautiously & employ hedging & lock-in-profit mechanism deligently. I reduce exposure to overnight positions.

[minoo 11]

Why I booked part Profit on RIMM ?

 

Read this yesterdays article of 1st Oct for figures & some stats

 

When Will RIM Reach $10? - Seeking Alpha

 

From 1st Para

' RIM was last assessed as being worth $8.35 '

 

From Last Para

RIM shares likely found a bottom at $7.50. It would not be unreasonable to expect markets to value RIM at $10. December open interest is highest for these $10 call options, but RIM is more likely to reach this double-digit share price in 2013

 

Good Trading to you

[minoo 11]

A quick update

Went just All Flat on RIMM, been dibbling & dabbling with the stock

It has been gapping up since the last trading days

But today It massively Gaped up above R4, showed Net Gain of 11%

With Net Vol turning negative at weekly resistance level, I pulled the plug

Also ES & NQ both had already started to pullback

Just keeping it Technical

 

Will now wait for some of those Gaps to fill and a probable Re-entry

 

Any Comments Welcome

 

Thanks Minoo

[minoo 11]

RIMM ReEntry to the Long side again Today

 

When Price retrace to S2 level; And Net-Vol turned Positive

Not much of an technical entry, apart from the stops could be tried out below S2 and intermediate chart showing WRB at Support

 

RIMM is under the limelight and the tone seems to be all positive so far . .. .

 

Sorry this is more of an opportunistic entry, which needs to be monitored at pre-opening and Intraday.

 

Enjoy Minoo

[RTM 10]

Hey Minoo. You seem to be in tune with this one. I've been watching closely and hoped to get your technical expertise.

 

I saw support at $12, and there's a big short interest still out there. Do you think this bounce has to do with short covering? Technically, fundamentally and just general gut feel on RIMM...I can't figure out who would buy at $13. Seems like a low upside, very high downside risk.

 

Thanks.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[minoo 11]

Some General & TA comments

 

The popular 50 & 200 MA is widely followed in the markets and would generally like to avoid playing at this areas.

 

As BB10 neared release date RIMM had 50MA crossing above 200MA on the daily Charts. The Price consolidated above the golden cross and 50MA between end of Dec and 2nd Week of Jan. It broke above consolidation on 11th Jan soon made highs 18.32 ish on 24Jan. Than came back down to area of consolidation on 31 Jan (low 12.15) also this same day BB10 was released. (Refer your daily chart)

 

The price pattern shows it traded as Parabola (what goes up on news will come to test the area it took off from (around 12 ish)

 

The Daily 50MA (13 ish) is in the current price region & sloping upwards; 200MA (9.9 ish) is Flat. This is an classic situation where news been traded and price back to place of pre-release consolidation and at 50MA. Also 50% retracement from the lows (6.22) to recent High (18.32) is around 12.27 mark.

 

Some Technical things to note here are:

There are Daily Gaps to filled, in the trading zone of 50 & 200 MA & also below 200MA

While at the moment 50 is sloping up 200 is Flat

The General Stock Indices looks Toppy

The BB10 and New Blackberry Models have so far somewhat positive press

RIMM is trading under its capital value

 

When it dive south this time to fill its gaps (I think more floating stock will be positively consumed by the funds)

 

Disclaimer: Most of the above though objectively put, it still is classified as opinion, generally to be used as background (present hindsight)

 

The best way to play in my opinion is take technical guidance (Price & Vol) from the (live) Market Indices to play the underlying stock

 

My Play Plan: Is to accumulate stock (including Average In) if it dives lower to fill its daily Gaps along with General Market Correction or stock should have positive Net Volume flow (ie accumulation)

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Commited the short as the Net Vol got Negative above the confluence area of Previous High and R1

 

RIMM seems strong in compare to general indices, today it held up and close higher than yesterday & previous day (3 concecutive closes higher)

 

50MA is at 14 evens (acts like an Magnet)

 

Note Further On the Daily Chart three previous days lower highs and higher highs printed by EOD

 

Keeping an Open Mind here; If the Indices trade lower overnight could benefit or may get stopped out tomorrow

 

Enjoy Minoo