FX EuroSwooning

[zdo 20]

I’m not like a TRO “rat” who can just specialize in trading just one direction for an instrument, but I do have long periods of time where I simply ignore signals from one direction… in this case, for a long time just ignored long signals in EUR. But since returning from vacation, I just realized I have started taking some longs with increasing frequency. (mostly short intraday holding period but based on intermediate time frame potential(s) )

 

Since May 2011, I have been posting bearish bs when I projected EUR was going to break lower. (see http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/9749-fx-eurotrash.html) At this point I’m far from switching to ‘bullish’ or even less bearish… but

1) a smattering of 'technicals' are starting to show some persistence that a good ‘rally’ has some potential…(albeit feasibly from much lower levels )

2) Also some ‘ordinary’ fx flow reasons continue to levitate it and bring it back up when it falls.

3) ...

 

Not saying the odds don’t still favor short trades at all, but I wanted to get a little equivalent place established for long side projections …

 

Also not saying at all that the EUR as a currency will ‘survive’… in fact I blve it is already finished … but we are all still in denial ‘for as long as it takes’… the idea of collectivism still rules the world for now…

 

...bringing you the world's only marco analysis

...thanks to TL which is the only venue on the planet for marco analysis

[MightyMouse 12]

What does the following mean:

 

1) a smattering of 'technicals' are starting to show some persistence that a good ‘rally’ has some potential…(albeit feasibly from much lower levels )

 

It reads like you are saying the market has some rally potential but it might be from lower levels which sounds like it could go up but it could go down. That info doesn't help much.

[Obsidian 10]

they say "the markets can run a lot longer in one direction than you think"

[SIUYA 11]

I am of the bearish EURUSD type......however,

just poked my head in, and for me (and what works for me....) using rough numbers.

 

recent little consolidation at 1.2174 -90......sharp rally to 1.2210

abc retracement (trend resumption).back to 1.2185, then a rally back over the B point....at 1.2205

 

Possible long opp from an oversold (I hate that word)......

 

buy around 1.2200 - ---- stop 1.2180 ---- a reasonable possibility for some upside.....especially with a move back about 1.2215

[Obsidian 10]

Moody's gift to Italy before its bond sale:

Moody's downgrades Italy's government bond rating to Baa2 from A3, maintains negative outlook

[SIUYA 11]

Moody's gift to Italy before its bond sale:

Moody's downgrades Italy's government bond rating to Baa2 from A3, maintains negative outlook

 

I just had a laugh about that, there was a guy on TV talking about it - his view....

 

Italy wont have any problems unless they keep coming back to the market and wanting to raise more money, and the other rating agencies keep downgrading them.....

 

Q; WTF sort of expert advice is that -????.....

A....the sort that gets you into all sort of trouble in the long run.

 

- no one has learnt a thing yet with attitudes like that, and the focus seems to be on what is China going to do to in terms of stimulus! Maybe they should join the EUR?

 

Update - EURUSD - climbing the wall of worry overnight......might have a spike up, but in my mind never a good sign.....needs a proper consolidation......wait and watch and sell rallies.....at this point....quick jobbing day today

[zdo 20]

It reads like you are saying the market has some rally potential but it might be from lower levels which sounds like it could go up but it could go down. That info doesn't help much.

 

No good or helpful “info” was attempted. It’s just a thread to post bullish bs about the EUR when I ‘project’ a move or run across an interesting tidbit that seems on topic. Regardless of bullish or bearish, EUR continues to be ugly, fiat trash. It may lose the race to the bottom via DNF… by wrecking and tearing all to pieces.

 

So…To rephrase “1) a smattering of 'technicals' are starting to show some persistence that a good ‘rally’ has some potential…(albeit feasibly from much lower levels )”

Another way to say it is - Yet EUR continues to find relative utility… and to find “support” at both marco and mirco levels.

 

Please don’t hold me to a high standard when it comes to mkt calls and opinions. I could bust my butt and not produce high quality posting… my “info” posts are not sufficiently timely… and worse – they are not produced consistently. Past a certain trading activity level, I forget or defer forums - so far too many would get skipped… and if all of them don’t get posted, in effect/principle all of them are “info [ that ] doesn’t help much”. ie to attain ‘good info’ level would require that I post anything and everything consistently and in consistent ‘format’

 

…so I rarely ever even try with posts about trading methods, edges, and techniques… and I am too ADHD sparodic to really contribute quality in the daily ES, etc . Generally, I have to confine my posts to thoughts and opinions about personal performance and to challenging some of the truisms, trading rules, and some of the silly psychological paradigms that prevail...

 

As SUIYA said - “quick jobbing day today” … Lifting high % of EUR longs from last night as we speak...

[zdo 20]

... just curious - I inferred a definition but just to be sure, could someone 'translate' the word "jobbing" from english-english to american-english. Many thx.

 

 

... sunday night...

 

Ya'll have a great weekend.

 

zdo

[SIUYA 11]

... just curious - I inferred a definition but just to be sure, could someone 'translate' the word "jobbing" from english-english to american-english. Many

 

jobbing = scalping.

 

Lots of smaller trades looking for shorter term speculative moves.

as opposed to position trading whereby the timeframe might be slightly longer term (even if its only 30mins- 30 days).

 

Personally when i would say its a jobbing day it means - directionless, and hence dont fall in love with a position - take a profit and look for the next small move as it is likely to a f..n choppy day that will frustrate you otherwise......

it was a term we used to use in Australia....Not sure where the name came from but i found this....loved the wrestling term - maybe thats why jobbing is a crap job IMHO.

 

http://onlineslangdictionary.com/meaning-definition-of/jobber

[MightyMouse 12]

jobbing = scalping.

 

Lots of smaller trades looking for shorter term speculative moves.

as opposed to position trading whereby the timeframe might be slightly longer term (even if its only 30mins- 30 days).

 

Personally when i would say its a jobbing day it means - directionless, and hence dont fall in love with a position - take a profit and look for the next small move as it is likely to a f..n choppy day that will frustrate you otherwise......

it was a term we used to use in Australia....Not sure where the name came from but i found this....loved the wrestling term - maybe thats why jobbing is a crap job IMHO.

 

What does jobber mean? - jobber Definition - Meaning of jobber | The Online Slang Dictionary

 

I have to thank you for the vernacular orgy you provide from time to time. I am enriched.

[SIUYA 11]

I have to thank you for the vernacular orgy you provide from time to time. I am enriched.

 

we always say in Australia we learn two languages....English and Australian.

 

if i did not watch what i said half the time you would think i had gone troppo.

 

Australian slang dictionary

[Obsidian 10]

I just had a laugh about that, there was a guy on TV talking about it - his view....

 

Italy wont have any problems unless they keep coming back to the market and wanting to raise more money, and the other rating agencies keep downgrading them.....

 

Q; WTF sort of expert advice is that -????.....

A....the sort that gets you into all sort of trouble in the long run.

 

- no one has learnt a thing yet with attitudes like that, and the focus seems to be on what is China going to do to in terms of stimulus! Maybe they should join the EUR?

 

Update - EURUSD - climbing the wall of worry overnight......might have a spike up, but in my mind never a good sign.....needs a proper consolidation......wait and watch and sell rallies.....at this point....quick jobbing day today

 

there are times that these types of comments-markets' ignorance to such events tell more than indicators...

seems like usd bears will be back in action...

[Obsidian 10]

EUR/USD hit 1.2150 after:

ECB's Ewald Nowotny said "there are arguments in favor of giving Europe’s rescue fund a banking license, reviving the debate on bolstering its firepower as leaders face the prospect of a full-scale Spanish bailout."

 

good luck with that...if ESM ever becomes functional and Merkel quits politics :rofl:

[zdo 20]

EUR/USD hit 1.2150 after:

ECB's Ewald Nowotny said "there are arguments in favor of giving Europe’s rescue fund a banking license, reviving the debate on bolstering its firepower as leaders face the prospect of a full-scale Spanish bailout."

 

good luck with that...if ESM ever becomes functional and Merkel quits politics :rofl:

 

This is a bullish thread. Don't be bringing none of your bearish bs up in here

[Obsidian 10]

I am bullish !!! Draghi the savior of the euro is my hero

 

have to admit that I am happy to see the bulls are back in action...else the trading range was getting too tight

[Landser 10]

Yup, I also think that EUR is going to correct some of recent losses in the week(s) ahead. EU authorities rhetoric was quite surprising to the upside - except for good old Bundesbank that called the aforementioned 'savior of the euro' a 'plunderer of the nest eggs of citizens' :haha:

[Obsidian 10]

do we see "buy the rumor sell the fact" effect?

[zdo 20]

...

 

...what goes around comes around...

 

... dabbling on the long side of the EUR into the year end...

:spam:

 

happy holidays all...