Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. (sorry for being late a bit)

 

Dow Jones-30

COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 31% /

COT Extreme /SS – All Time COT extreme /

Both of our main cot signals are pointing downwards… we have a bearish cot change signal (larger changes in Traders positions) and an all time cot extreme in Small Speculators positions (SS have never been so optimistic about this market).

 

Heating Oil

COT Extreme /LS – All Time COT extreme /

We, who use cot analysis in our trading just love these situations! The picture is so clear that it is hard add to it anything… Stress levels in Heating Oil have once again reached all time levels, thus we can expect an ending to this decline (and judging from last week’s performance, we it may already be the case (?)).

 

Natural Gas

COT Extreme /C – 200, LS - 200 report COT extreme /

We may not have such an obvious case as in Heating Oil, but there is no question about the extreme present in this market. We may just need to be a bit more careful here and take into consideration the possibility of further increase in the cot extreme, which of course would most probably come together with further declining prices.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Soybean Meal

COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 22% /

The cot change signal is bullish and so is the cot extreme signal. Although we cannot talk about a very large cot extreme, we can see that in the past 2-3 years these relative extremes were good at signaling changes in the market.

 

Heating Oil

COT Extreme /LS – All Time COT extreme /

After witnessing a >20% increase in prices in the last 2 weeks it is becoming clear that our beautiful cot extreme signal is effective again!

 

Copper

COT Extreme /LS – All Time COT extreme /

What a beautiful cot extreme, isn’t it? There’s not much that I can add here… the picture says it all…

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Nasdaq-100

COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 37%, SS – 31% /

Mainly the cot change signal that can help us this week: LS increasing their net long positions, C their net short positions rapidly. We can only talk about a larger cot extreme in case of SS, who are pretty optimistic about the market right now.

 

Japanese Yen

COT Extreme /LS – 117 report COT extreme /

The 117 report extreme we have in LS positions can be considered a relative bearish extreme, but if we look at the wider horizon here, you can see that the cot picture is rather bullish.

 

Lean Hogs

COT Extreme /C, LS – 92 report COT extreme /

On a longer chart it is clearly visible that we are not that close to all time bullish extreme levels yet in the report, but still, the level of extreme we have is reasonably large. We should be watching this market in the next couple of weeks, months, I think there is great potential here.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

S&P-500

COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS – 32% /

No extreme and a bullish cot change signal = the rally can continue:)

 

Japanese Yen

COT Extreme /LS – 118 report COT extreme /

Not much has happened since last week. The extreme is reasonably bearish on the last 2-3 years interval, but unquestionably bullish on a longer time horizon.

 

Oats

COT Extreme /C – 249, LS – 107 report COT extreme /

Now here we got a good signal! Just look at the chart and you’ll see:) Commercials are long, SS and LS are short --> that is an unquestionable bullish extreme!

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Soybean Oil

COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS – 32% /

Not a market that I suggest to you now… Reasons: COT Change signal coming a bit late (prices have already dropped since the report date (last week Tuesday)) and the cot extreme situation isn’t that clear either… Of course if any of you have different view, my ears are open:)

 

Lumber

COT Extreme /C – All Time, LS – 1247 report COT extreme /

Now here’s a “WOW Situation” All market players are at their extremes, we have a good track record of successful cot extreme signals from the past… any questions?

 

Orange Juice

COT Extreme /C – 601, LS – 596 report COT extreme /

I could only repeat what I just wrote for Lumber!! We have a similarly bullish picture here as well!

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Dow Jones-30

COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS – 22% /

The larger changes in Traders positions suggests that we should see a bit of a prices rise in the next few days… We’ll see. We do not have a mentionable cot extreme, so that’s all we can gather from cot data this week.

 

Australian Dollar

COT Extreme /C, LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /

Does it get any better than All Time cot extreme in all three major Market Players positions? I don’t think so… It is a clear and unquestionable bullish cot extreme situation. We are expecting prices to bottom out soon, but (!) let’s not forget that these extreme may be present in a market for many weeks or even months before we see a reaction from price.

 

Rough Rice

COT Extreme /C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Another huge signal, but maybe not as “easy” as in case of AUD… If you look at the chart, we have had similar level of extreme for quite some time now and without any reasonable reaction from price. I’d say we can position ourselves accordingly, but with greater caution knowing the history of Rough Rice.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Soybean Meal

COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 22%, SS – 26% /

Both cot signals point upwards: we have a larger change in Trader’s positions plus a relative bullish cot extreme. I wouldn’t say that this is the best trading opportunity, but for any of you, who trade this market, the cot data seems to be indicating a positive picture.

 

Rough Rice

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

Last week I said it is not too easy to determine rough rice’s move, because we have had such stress levels in the market for quite some time now without any major price reaction. After many weeks of declines, last week was very strong. Have we reached the bottom? It’s hard to tell, but the bullish cot extreme signal is still present, that is for sure.

 

Orange Juice

COT Extreme /C – 606, LS – 601 report COT extreme /

What a beautiful signal in one of my favorite markets:) It’s hard to say much about it, the charts tell us a very clear “story”. OJ has many time reacted nicely to cot extreme signals, thus I have great confidence that it will once again do so.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Soybean Meal

COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 19%, SS – 15% /

In my last post, I’ve wrote that we have a relatively good buying opportunity – nothing special, but it’s there. Things have not changed so far, we still see the cot report supporting a bullish move in this market.

 

Lean Hogs

COT Extreme / C – 149, LS – 150 report COT extreme /

The cot extreme is very well “seeable” , so I needn’t explain too much… As you can see, the last few weeks we could witness a bit of a rise in prices which brings us to the question: is the decline over already? Of course I can’t tell, but judging from the past reactions from Lean Hogs to these large extremes, we can expect prices to develop a bottom soon.

 

Cocoa

COT Extreme /C – 103, LS – 103 report COT extreme /

Relative bullish cot extreme signal. Ok, we don’t have a beautiful, all time cot extreme, but as you can see from even recent examples, these signals could also be helpful to us. I’d say that the report is telling us: “Up”.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Silver

COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 19% /

Only the bullish cot change signal could be of help right now, since we do not have an extreme to talk about… I’d leave silver aside for now.

 

Wheat (Kansas)

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The signal here is clear and visible… luckily we have “good” history --> such cot extreme signals were pretty much effective all the time in the past, so we can expect prices to bottom out soon.

 

Rough Rice

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Contrary to Wheat, the situation is not that easy here… We have had bullish extremes for quite some time now, but without any reasonable reaction from price. If you wanted to enter long in grains, I’d rather choose Wheat instead!

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Oats

COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 32%, SS – 11% /

Both of our main cot signals are bullish: a larger change in Traders positions and also the cot extreme. I think this is a good market with large trading potential in it!

 

Wheat (both: Chicago and Kansas)

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Prices are still declining, but as they do, stress levels are getting larger day by day… I think these are again great markets with good trading opportunities! Similar to Oats of course, so take into consideration the correlation effect when managing your portfolio.

 

Natural Gas

COT Extreme / C – All Time, LS – 213 report COT extreme /

I thought I’ll jump over rough rice and talk about something new instead:) The cot extreme is clearly huge and we have seen confirming price reaction last week, so we may start looking for good entries here!

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Nasdaq-100

COT Change (52W) / C – 48%, LS – 33%, SS – 34% /

COT Extreme / SS – 160 report COT extreme /

It may seem interesting at these price levels, but all major cot signals are bullish: a large change in Traders positions and pessimistic small speculators.

 

Rough Rice

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Prices are declining and as they do, the cot extreme is becoming larger and larger… I have attached a longer, 15y chart to show you: although there is plenty of space left downwards (making us cautious), we have reached a significant support level.

 

Wheat (Kansas)

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Extreme has become larger, but last week prices managed to gain some momentum… we’ll see in the next few weeks whether we have reached the bottom or not:)

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Japanese Yen

COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 35%, SS – 17% /

COT Extreme / SS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture is becoming pretty bullish in the Japanese Yen. We have a bullish cot change signal, relative bullish extreme in LS and C and an unquestionable large bullish cot extreme in SS positions.

 

Soybeans

COT Extreme / LS – 537 report COT extreme /

It looks like the bullish cot extreme from last year September was not enough for prices to maintain strength and we may see much greater extremes coming in the near future… so even though we have this bullish extreme, I’d very cautious.

 

Coffee

COT Extreme / C, LS – 75 report COT extreme /

As we can see, the bearish cot extreme from last year that managed to draw prices down, is gradually leaving the field… we are getting closer and closer to a bullish cot extreme!

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Nasdaq-100

COT Change (52W) / C – 53%, LS – 26%, SS – 35% /

Without an extreme to talk about, it is only the larger change in Traders positions (mainly Commercials) that has any signal value for us --> bearish cot change signal, possibly effecting prices this week… I’d move on to other markets.

 

New Zealand Dollar

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

With the all-time cot extreme present in the market, we have an unquestionable cot extreme signal (bullish of course). I love currencies in this respect, because these are very reliable signals! Have a look at the chart and you will see that in the past how well the New Zealand Dollar has reacted to these extremes. Of course don’t forget that these extremes may stay in place for many weeks before the action starts!

 

Orange Juice

COT Extreme / LS – 612 report COT extreme /

Although not all-time, but clearly a huge cot extreme here as well (and again bullish). If you have a look at OJs history, you will find that Large Speculators were very rarely bearish in the market… but whenever they were, shortly after that prices hit a bottom and from then on, prices rallied. I’m expecting something similar to happen again.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Silver

COT Change (52W) / C – 43%, LS – 49%, SS – 27% /

On one side we have this bullish cot change signal and on the other side we have the bearish cot extreme (more visible two reports ago). This could mean that we will see a bit of rise in the next few days, but for the next few weeks we expect further weakening in prices.

 

New Zealand Dollar

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Further declining in prices as the extreme becomes larger… if you remember my last sentence in last week’s post, you shouldn’t be surprised --> these extremes bay be present in a market for many weeks before we see price reaction!

 

Natural Gas

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

After the decline of 2014, we have once again reached a bullish cot extreme… not only a large one, but one that we have never seen in the past. It is truly a strong signal, one that shouldn’t be neglected! I think we have opportunities here:)

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

COTbase did not post a new review, but anyhow, I’ll still update for you!

 

Nasdaq-100

COT Change (52W) / C – 81%, LS – 71% /

Bearish cot change signal that was large enough to push the market to a cot extreme that is considerable. This means that all our major cot signals have become red, but of course caution is advised, indexes – in my opinion – do not react to cot signals as well as other markets do.

 

Palladium

COT Extreme / C, LS – 133 report COT extreme /

The cot extreme is becoming larger, we can talk about a relative extreme, bullish of course. In case of SS, they are at a much larger extreme, pessimistic about the market which of course is great news for buyers!

 

Corn

COT Extreme / C – 71, LS – 73 report COT extreme /

We can see a widening extreme as prices go lower. Has the time come to buy again? Well there could be much greater extremes, but as the las bottom shows, a relative cot extreme of this strength is already capable of influencing prices.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Soybeans

COT Change (52W) / C – 52%, LS – 54%, SS – 14% /

By having such a large bearish cot change signal, one might think that we are in for a huge drop in prices… well lower prices in the next few days is highly possible, but let’s look at the bigger picture. You can see that the market is moving away from bullish extreme levels. These levels are not far yet and there is plenty of space in the opposite direction --> The rally can continue in the long run.

 

Nasdaq-100

COT Change (52W) / C – 50%, LS – 42%, SS – 39 /

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

All major cot signals are pointing heavily downwards, not much that I can add here:)

 

New Zealand Dollar

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Patience. That’s what we need now… The picture is crystal clear, we’ve never witnessed such a bullish cot extreme in New Zealand Dollar in the past, we are expecting this to have an effect on prices. When? Maybe now, maybe only after a few months.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Heating Oil

COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 15%, SS – 37% /

Bullish cot change signal: possible rise in prices this week.

COT extreme: not that long ago we had a bullish extreme, prices reacted, but the rally was short living and we are once again seeing dropping prices. Until we breach 2015’s lows, I’d say that we’ve still some change to see rising prices.

 

New Zealand Dollar

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Last week we saw a bit of a rise… does it confirm the end of the decline? Volume and OI analysis does not support…

 

Mexican Peso

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Not much to say here either: all time cot extreme, huge bullish signal, but as NZD shows, we may need to wait a “little” to see higher prices.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Sugar

COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 28%, SS – 38% /

The bearish cot change signal came a bit late, but looking at that chart patterns, it may have launched another down leg in prices. Although not long ago, we had the bullish cot extreme – giving prices a little momentum – we can witness what happened the last couple of times, when we had such a scenario. Ok, now you might say: “Hey D, that wasn’t oo helpful… tell me, what to do then?” …well I think until a cot extreme signal is breached, we should stick to it: until we see a lower bottom, the signal is in place and we have a good chance to see the rally develop further.

 

New Zealand Dollar

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

I could only repeat myself… patience.

 

Mexican Peso

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

I could only repeat myself… patience.

 

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Sugar

COT Change (52W) / C – 54%, LS – 44%, SS – 36% /

After last week’s bearish cot change signal, now we can see an even greater bullish one. Prices have gone further down as it was expected, although not breaching the support level of the last major bottom --> bullish cot extreme signal is still in place. Now of course the chances are pretty high that we will see Traders changing their positions in the same manner as last week, thus pushing prices even lower / their positions to bullish extreme levels.

 

Mexican Peso

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

No change from last week.

 

Oats

COT Extreme / C - 332, LS – 267 report COT extreme /

We have a huge bullish extreme in Oats, so definitely keep watching this market for trading opportunities!

 

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Soybean Oil

COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 23%, SS – 41% /

A few weeks ago we were at a pretty large bearish extreme, now prices are down again. This week’s cot data show larger changes in Traders positions (bullish cot change signal) + relative bullish extreme (based on a 1-yr time range). I could argue in any direction: on the bearish side we can say that the close to all time extreme we had a few weeks ago is still in place… on the bullish side: prices at such support levels, the relative bullish extreme and cot change signal present should be viewed. Not an easy picture, that’s for sure:)

 

Mexican Peso

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

No change from last week from cot analysis perspective / Friday’s strength maybe signaling the end of the decline?

 

Oats

COT Extreme / C - 333, LS – 268 report COT extreme /

With widening extreme, prices gone higher last week --> keep watching

 

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Orange Juice

COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 12%, SS – 44% /

Yeah, we have a bearish cot change signal, but hey (!) we just had a bullish cot extreme --> yes, prices may decline in the short term, but I think prices are headed up in the long term.

 

Oats

COT Extreme / C - 334, LS – 269 report COT extreme /

Although prices were unable to go much higher last week, momentum is still in place. With widened extreme in the cot report, chances of further increases have gone higher.

 

Palladium

COT Extreme / C - 156, LS – 156 report COT extreme /

Huge bullish cot extreme (that can easily grow further!!) --> Commercials, Large Speculators getting closer to net0 positions, Small specs bearish. Last two times when this was the case (2011, 2012) we got bottoms. Having great support levels not far, we may be in for a good risk/reward trade!

 

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

(Back from my summer vacation:) )

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Japanese Yen

COT Change (52W) / C – 50%, LS – 44%, SS – 46% /

Bearish cot change signals accompanied by a relative bearish cot extreme. Small speculators are becoming more and more optimistic about a rally, which adds to the bearishness level. On the other hand we’ve got the fundamentals, so I’d be cautious now with a short trade.

 

Oats

COT Extreme / LS – 272 report COT extreme /

Widening cot extreme with bit of a rise last week. The picture is still positive!

 

Palladium

COT Extreme / C - 160, LS – 160 report COT extreme /

Similarly to JPY, I think we have to be cautious with the signal now, because of the “situation” we have, but nevertheless, the bullish picture is unquestionable and we should be ready when the opportunity arises.

 

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

British Pound

COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS – 20%, SS – 43% /

The cot change signal is bullish, the last major cot extreme signal was also bullish, yet last two week’s price movement calls for some caution. I think we may see a bit of a rise early off this week, but it’s hard to tell if that will continue afterwards or would be see prices falling again. If prices do fall, I’m expecting the cot extreme to widen again towards bullish extremes.

 

Live Cattle

COT Extreme / C, LS – 122 report COT extreme /

We haven’t had such a bullish extreme since 122 reports ago (= about 2 years). Now that is a considerable extreme. But (!), it may also be seen on the chart, that Traders can increase these positions further, so we may need to patient before entering long.

 

Soybean Oil

COT Extreme / C - 58, LS – 57 report COT extreme /

We do not have such a clear bullish extreme as in LC, but it is visible enough that the picture is becoming bullish week by week.

 

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Sugar

COT Change (52W) / C – 42%, LS – 39%, SS – 25% /

The cot change signal suggests a decline will happen, but the bigger picture shows us that we have just reached a bullish cot extreme not long ago. Looking at the past few months, it may easily happen again that prices start to continue their decline while the cot extreme further widens.

 

Live Cattle

COT Extreme / C, LS – 126 report COT extreme /

Not much has changed since last week, the extreme became larger, prices could not gain momentum yet. We need to be patient.

 

Coffee

COT Extreme / C - 92, LS – 92 report COT extreme /

We are once again getting close to all time (bullish) cot extreme levels, so start getting prepared for higher prices.

 

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Mexican Peso

COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 43% /

Generally speaking, the picture looks bullish, but we have got a bearish cot change signal and it seems that price were unable to stop declining even though we has a major cot extreme signal. We may need to wait a few more weeks and possibly a clearer cot signal.

 

Live Cattle

COT Extreme / C - 311, LS – 799 report COT extreme /

We have a close to all time cot extreme in this market, yet prices are dynamically falling. This set up is always hard, but nevertheless it seems to be good trade! We may just need to be more patient.

 

Coffee

COT Extreme / C - 96, LS – 96 report COT extreme /

Last week we saw a strong Thursday and Friday… are we over the bottom? Stay tuned, this market has great potential!

 

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts