Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C - 26%, LS – 24%, SS - 34% /
FTG Score / D -30.1, W -37.5, M -28.6 /
Huge cot change signal, but possibly late for us… COT extreme still bullish, but significant bearish FTG scores suggest the real rally is further away, months or even years should not surprise us.

Wheat (Kansas)
COT Extreme / C - 135, LS – 156 COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -41.2, W 0.8, M -37.6 /
Huge bullish cot extreme can be witnessed here indicating a rally ahead of us. By looking at FTG scores I would expect a bit of a decline now giving us better entry points.

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / LS – 68, SS - 362 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 27.0, W 21.8, M -4.0 /
Growing bearish cot extreme suggesting a top soon, but FTG scores indicating strength in the market suggests that patients could be a profitable direction now.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Lean Hogs
COT Change (52W) / C - 50%, LS – 27%, SS - 57% /

COT Extreme / SS – 1270 COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 6.9, W -12.2, M 14.3 /
All of our cot signals are bearish, ftg scores are not against this view either so we may be in for a top soon…

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.4, W 8.9, M 4.5 /
Correlating markets (LH) so we are not surprised to see this bearish cot signal in live cattle… Pretty obvious picture, not much to argue about:)

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / LS – 302, SS - 303 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.8, W -11.8, M -42.5 /
Beautiful bearish cot extreme signal which of course means that the chances of Mexican peso to lose value against the USD has risen dramatically. Looking at examples from the past one can easily come to the conclusion that cot extreme signals seem to be very efficient in this market.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Lean Hogs
COT Change (52W) / C - 35%, LS – 50%, SS - 42% /
FTG Score / D 25.6, W -6.7, M 8.1 /
Seem as if the market started reacting to these bearish signals coming from the cot report. Let’s see what happens the next few weeks.

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 17.9, W 8.9, M -2.8 /
As in case of Lean hogs, here we can also find signs that the market started to change in accordance with the cot signals. Such extremes are always great signals that eventually produce results.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / LS – 308, SS – 308 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 6.5, W -29.7, M -67.9 /
As the extreme grew larger, so did FTG scores become even more bearish. Now we have an ever higher probability for the currency to lose value against the USD.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Brazilian Real
COT Change (52W) / C - 34%, LS – 32%, SS - 21% /
FTG Score / D -40.3, W -47.5, M -43.2 /
Very large change has happened in Traders positions here (bullish cot signal), but FTG scores indicate that further weakness is on its way, so maybe we should wait a bit…

Bitcoin (CME)
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.4, W -8.8, M 10.9 /
COT analysis is here is not as straight forward here since we are talking about only a 1 year history for Bitcoin, but the fact that small speculators are heavily long suggests to me that there could be a higher chance for the market to move lower in the next couple of weeks /months. We will see… interesting market

Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -18.8, W -40.9, M -53.2 /
One of the nicest opportunities this week: All time cot extreme signal (bearish) and a support from FTG as well.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Cocoa
COT Change (52W) / C - 23%, LS – 26%, SS - 28% /
FTG Score / D 29.0, W 19.7, M -2.5 /
Bearish cot change signaling some decline for this week, but the larger picture seems to remain bullish.

Bitcoin (CME)
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 7.4, W -18.3, M 12.7 /
Following my remarks from last post I am still cautious here and waiting for enough history to be able to start seeing correlations between cot data and price action.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C – 312 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 13.3, W -9.2, M -57.8 /
If you are someone who is expecting a USD rise, then you should consider the Mexican peso as a means of trading it. The all time bearish cot extreme speaks for itself. 

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

Edited April 15, 2019 by Dunstan

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C - 30%, LS – 32%, SS - 14% /
FTG Score / D 27.1, W 35.7, M 35.6 /
No extreme / bearish cot change signal / strong FTG scores: pretty mixed up picture here, maybe it’s best to step aside and wait for a better more clearer situation.

Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 15.3, W -27.9, M -52.5 /
The all time extreme combined with such FTG scores says that a very nice shorting opportunity is on the table here:)

Corn
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -25.0, W -50.9, M -48.6 /
All time bullish extreme but here we do not have support from FTG, thus there may be a good chance that the market is continuing the decline and as it does, we will be receiving even greater extremes the next couple of weeks.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Swiss Franc
COT Change (52W) / C - 15%, LS – 14%, SS - 10% /
FTG Score / D -7.2, W -49.9, M -13.7 /
All of our main cot signals are pointing upwards, but the high weekly FTG score (bearish) warns us to be cautious, further declines could be on their way.

Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 17.3, W -24.4, M -50.2 /
If you were following these signals, then probably you have hopped on a profitable wagon here:) In accordance with the cot extreme signal the market started to move lower and the picture suggests this may continue for many more weeks and months.

Corn
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -25.9, W -48.9, M -52.2 /
My last week’s remark still holds and you can see that the extreme in the market simply became even larger. FTG system still very bearish, thus patients is still necessary here.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Australian Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C - 17%, LS – 15%, SS - 14% /
FTG Score / D -28.1, W -55.9, M -43.8 /
We can see a bullish cot change signal, an extreme cot signal becoming very bullish week by week, but bearish FTG readings suggest we may need to wait a little longer.

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – 125 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -50.9, W -47.4, M -19.0 /
The bullish extreme in Euro similarly to AUD is becoming larger and larger, but has not yet reached all time levels. Due to the fundamentals we are all aware of (US economy’s relative strength compared to rest of the world), I would expect a significant extreme (all time) before Euro turns north.

Swiss Franc
COT Index (10 year) / C - 95%, LS – 10%, SS - 6% /
FTG Score / D -33.2, W -28.7, M -10.1 /
The bullish extreme in the CHF is the strongest, could be one of the first ones that may advance against the USD… or one might see some potential in going long here against a weaker currency like the Russian ruble or the MXP-

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Corn
COT Change (52W) / C - 36%, LS – 31%, SS - 16% /
FTG Score / D 27.8, W 43.3, M 11.3 /
Bearish cot change signal suggesting some weakness early this week, but FTG seems to support further price increases. Let’s not forget that not long ago we have had a significant bullish cot extreme and bearish extremes are still far away.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – 163 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -62.8, W -18.6, M -17.9 /
Huge bullish extreme in recent cot report, but I’d wait a bit longer before entering the market. -62.8 daily FTG score suggests a near term new test of lows.

Oats
COT Index (10 year) / C - 11%, LS – 98%, SS - 48% /
FTG Score / D 28.1, W 49.5, M 44.3 /
Bearish cot extreme in oats suggesting that prices could retreat to lower levels in the next couple of weeks.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C - 28%, LS – 21%, SS - 41% /
FTG Score / D 48.2, W -34.3, M -9.2 /
This bearish change signal coming from the cot report suggests lower prices coming. Could be the case, although high daily FTG score (positive) makes me cautious.

Oats
COT Extreme / C - 76, LS – 307 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 21.0, W 31.5, M 42.0 /
Beautiful bearish cot extreme near the top -> let us be prepared for much cheaper oats.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C - 14, LS – 182 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -13.3, W -23.3, M -24.5 /
Significant bullish cot extreme in the market, but in my opinion it could grow larger. In anyways, it seems that there may be a good buying opportunity soon.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Gold
COT Change (52W) / C - 32%, LS – 36%, SS - 28% /
FTG Score / D 17.8, W 43.3, M 46.1 /
Both cot signal, the change and the extreme suggest that fallback in prices could happen. FTG scores are positive showing strength, but mainly on the weekly & monthly horizon: I can imagine some decline in the near term, but eventually see prices head north again. 

Oats
COT Extreme / C, LS – 308 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 32.6, W 52.3, M 57.1 /
It seems as if the bearish cot extreme signal I’ve been talking about the last time has taken oats down and judging by the size of this extreme I’d be expecting further declines coming.

Brazilian Real
COT Extreme / C, LS – 225 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -20.8, W -34.6, M -25.9 /
The cot report is indicating a bullish extreme in Traders positions, but FTG scores indicate weakness in the market it may be advisable to wait for a better opportunity.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Swiss Franc
COT Change (52W) / C - 26%, LS – 33% /

FTG Score / D 22.7, W -28.5, M 2.8 /
Huge bearish cot change signal indicating weakness ahead, weekly FTG score supporting it.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C - 183, LS – 184 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -43.4, W 1.2, M -34.3 /
Significant bullish cot extreme, but caution is advised: 1) Large weakness measured in the market by FTG (daily score of -43.4) and 2) correlating energy markets further away in extremes.

Gold
COT Extreme / C, LS – 62 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 27.9, W 35.2, M 46.1 /
Bearish cot extreme. Not the largest, but at a level worth mentioning. The market is at an important resistance, if it breaks through, we could see the extreme widen further. FTG scores supporting the market, especially in the long timeframes.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Platinum
COT Change (52W) / C - 18%, LS – 20% /
FTG Score / D -7.4, W -19.4, M -16.1 /
The larger than average change in Large Specs and Commercials positions, together with the negative reading from FTG suggest we could see some weakness from platinum in the coming days…

Bitcoin (CME)
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 25.0, W 60.3, M 24.5 /
We do not have such a history of cot data to be certain that we have cot signal that we can act upon, nevertheless it is interesting to see Large specs continuing to increase their net short positions, seeing Commercials net short and only Small specs taking the long side of the market. The all time extreme signal in LS would be generally considered a bullish signal, small spec net long a bearish FTG scores, especially the weekly show significant support for further rally in the market.

Canadian Dollar
COT Extreme / C - 72, LS – 68 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 37.5, W -26.2, M -25.7 /
In the past few weeks we have witnessed traders changing their positions towards a more bearish situation. The example from May 2017 to October the same year suggests that we could see this trend continuing for some time before the market dips back down. Daily FTG scores seem to back this, although the weekly and monthly already expect changes happening to the CAD.

All the best, 
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

[Pro_Traders 0]

Why Invest?

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[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Seems like it’s all about metals this time

Platinum
COT Change (52W) / C - 24%, LS – 25% /
FTG Score / D 16.7, W 15.1, M -33.1 /
Bearish cot changes signal together with bearish extreme and that strong FTG readings suggest to me that we have a great opportunity to enter the market from the short side.

Copper
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -27.8, W -26.6, M -18.4 /
Opposite to Platinum here we find a more bullish case: all time cot extreme in Commercials and Large speculators position. There is a good change we will find the market higher in a few weeks, months.

Gold

COT Extreme / C - 164, LS – 155, SS - 343 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 35.1, W 3.7, M 3.0 /
After the thy dynamic strengthening of the last few weeks, we should not be surprised if gold pulls back a bit, This is well signaled in the commitments of traders report.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Brazilian Real
COT Change (52W) / C - 54%, LS – 54% /
FTG Score / D -24,1, W -36,7, M -25,9 /
All major cot signals are indicating that we have a good chance to see the market to rally.

Wheat (Minn.)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -25.7, W -31.3, M -29.7/
All time cot extremes are always highly valued, but we should be careful, since history has proven that we can be in such a place for a long time before we see the major trend change… Nevertheless we should be prepared to see Wheat go higher.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -28.6, W 26.4, M -45.2 /
Well I could simply copy+paste what I just wrote for Wheat but actually there are some differences here… If you look carefully, you may find Sugar to be in a bullish extreme since mid 2017, and we have still not been able to leave the bear market…. So even with this all time cot extreme, one should be willing to accept the high chance that Sugar will stay low even with such extremes!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading

Edited September 16, 2019 by Dunstan