Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Dunstan · January 15, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500

COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 53%, SS – 10% /

One word: Crazy…

Euro

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

As the market moved further up, the extreme has become even greater… The question is not IF it is going to burst, but WHEN?

Heating Oil

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

Not much changed from last week. Prices could not gain too much, but the extreme became larger.

All the best,

Dunstan

Dunstan · January 23, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Natural Gas

COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 30%, SS – 12% /

Due to the bearish cot change signal we could see a bit of a decline in the market, but the fact that the last cot extreme signal was bullish and effective, we should be prepared for further rallies in Natural Gas.

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

All Time bearish cot extreme, but (!) caution is advised as stated in the cot review -> these extremes can stay for a few weeks or even months before the market trend starts to shift.

British Pound

COT Extreme / LS – 174 report COT extreme /

Not an all time extreme, but significant enough to be careful. The cot report is signaling an end to the rally in GBP.

All the best,

Dunstan

Dunstan · February 1, 2018

Hi everyone,

Sorry for being out for so long, have been struggling with a virus... getting better:)

I just wanted to let you know that I have been monitoring this new service that COTbase has built, it is called Futures Trading Guides. Check out the results, really impressive! I have been testing it in my own trading and to tell you the truth, I am pretty satisfied with what I see!

You can see the system here:

All the best,

Dunstan

Dunstan · February 13, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30

COT Change (52W) / C – 57%, LS – 42%, SS – 34% /

Huge bullish cot change signal, but we should not be surprised, since there has been a very large drop in prices. The signal suggests higher prices early this week.

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

Last week’s decline may have confirmed the top we have been waiting for since we have had this all time cot extreme in the market.

Cocoa

COT Extreme / C – 65, LS – 64 report COT extreme /

Not much here… I’d say that the last major bullish cot extreme is still in place: I’m expecting higher prices to come.

You may want to check out the following cool video about FuturesTradingGuides.com, the service I have mentioned not long ago. They have enhanced their results page and you can now see the system’s performance on a longer time horizon!

All the best,

Dunstan

Dunstan · February 26, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybeans

COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS – 21%, SS – 12% /

The cot change signal is clearly bearish (maybe influencing the market early this week), but the extreme is not that obvious. Large Speculators were at these levels roughly a year ago, but other than that, the bullish cot extreme from 5 weeks ago is still acting. So my assumption is this: we may see a bit of a decline, but it should not be long lived and thus we could easily see the continuation of the rally.

Soybean Meal

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Unquestionable bearish cot extreme --> be prepared for lower prices to come.

Dow Jones-30

COT Extreme / C, LS – 91 report COT extreme /

Interesting to get to a bullish extreme so fast (under a month), but looking at the price action, our surprise should be washed away:)

All the best,

Dunstan

Futures Trading

Dunstan · March 5, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybeans

COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS – 19%, SS – 5% /

COT Extreme / C - 53, LS – 52 report COT extreme /

The rally continued, the extreme became larger, but it is questionable whether or not it is large enough to make any changes to the rally. The cot change signal suggest a pullback in this rally.

Soybean Meal

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The extreme became even greater… Eyes on this market

Silver

COT Extreme / C - 133, LS – 778 report COT extreme /

Huge bullish cot extreme in Silver suggesting higher prices to come!

All the best,

Dunstan

Futures Trading

Dunstan · April 9, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Gold
COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 19% /
Bullish cot change signal possibly pushing prices higher the next few days, but no extreme.

Silver
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Further increase in the cot extreme here. Great example that all time extremes could be with us for pretty long time before the market reacts. FuturesTradingGuides is indicating a -51.79 FTG score on a short time frame and a -56.99 FTG score for medium term so actually even though we have this huge bullish extreme, I’m waiting…

British Pound
COT Extreme / C - 193, LS – 194 report COT extreme /
Huge Bearish cot extreme in GBP suggesting an end to this rally we have been witnessing since the beginning of 2017.

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · April 16, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 10%, SS – 22% /
Although we have this bearish cot change signal, I’d stay away from any short trade. Volume and OI analysis is supporting further rallies in the market and the extreme isn’t that significant either.

S&P-500
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Interesting to see such a bearish extreme in S&P, when we have nothing similar in Nasdaq and the Dow… tricky situation that’s for sure. Nevertheless if someone is considering shorting here, they may be happy with the fact that the cot report is backing the trade.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C - 194, LS – 196 report COT extreme /
As prices gone higher, the bearish cot extreme has also become larger – no surprise here.

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · April 23, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 21%, LS – 14%, SS – 31% /
Bearish COT change signal combined with an extreme bearish cot extreme. Eyes on rough Rice.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
All time bullish cot extreme in Coffee! Let the chart speak for itself

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
LS at a bearish cot extreme (all time) suggesting prices should turn downwards.

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · May 8, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Orange Juice
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 22%, SS – 22% /
The large change in Traders positions suggest that prices may fall back a little, but analyzing the stress level in the market I can except further increases in the next weeks, months ahead.

S&P-500
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The most bearish of all indexes is the S&P-500. The all time cot extreme makes this clear. I’d be careful though, since the picture seems to be very bullish in Nasdaq and the Dow.

Soybean Meal
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Soybean markets in my experience tend to react very well to cot extreme signals (just take a brief look at some historical examples…), so the fact that we have all time bearish cot extreme in Commercial’s AND Large Speculators positions makes me excited.

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · May 14, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Orange Juice
COT Change (52W) / C – 29%, LS – 26%, SS – 30% /
Nice signal from the change in Traders positions, but I don’t see a big extreme yet.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / C – 566, LS – 307 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
Huge bullish cot extreme in Swiss Franc! In the past the market reacted well to these tense situations, so I’m expecting this to repeat again. I’ve just subscribed to FX Trading Guides and now I can see that I should wait a bit before entering the market. Attached you can see the daily-weekly and monthly FTG scores that measure strength/weakness in the market. I gathered all major currencies with CHF.

Wheat
COT Extreme / C - 41, LS – 207 report COT extreme /
Very large bearish extreme here suggesting further declines to come.

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · May 20, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 27%, SS – 31% /
FTG Score / D -29.6, W -18, M -46.1 /
Huge change in Traders positions (bullish cot signal) and the stresses in the market are also becoming more and more bullish. Because of the FTG scores I’d be neglecting this market for now.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / C – 567, LS – 563 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -38.6, W 10.2, M -14 /
The extreme became even greater than last week, but the price was unable to continue its decline. Maybe the downtrend is over? I’d be betting on that more… Since we have still a negative FTG score (daily), I may wait until it becomes positive.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C - 119, LS – 118, SS - 120 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -22.3, W -12.2, M -33.1 /
Maybe not as large extreme as for CHF, but still big enough to consider taking a position on the LONG side. Same as in case of MXP and CHF, it would be nice to see supporting FTG scores.

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · May 28, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 23%, SS – 21% /
FTG Score / D -42.4, W -48.9, M -3.5 /
Large bearish cot change signal combined with FTG scores that signal weakness in the market --> I am expecting a bit of pullback in prices. On the other hand we should not forget about the bullish cot extreme that triggered this rally and the fact that we are pretty far away from bearish extremes.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 29.1, W 18.6, M -13.4 /
The All time bearish cot extreme in Gasoline suggest prices have reached their top, we should be seeing lower prices coming.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / LS – 564 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -39.6, W 5.1, M -5.9 /
The increase that we have witnessed suggests that the bullish cot extreme we have in the market may very well be successful.

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · June 25, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 47%, LS – 47% /
FTG Score / D 36.8, W -10.5, M 20.7 /
We are witnessing truly large changes in Traders position (bearish cot signal), but caution is advised for two reasons: The bullish cot extreme that lead us to this rally has still not decreased too much, FuturesTradingGuides scores indicate further positive signs in the market…

Platinum
COT Extreme / C – 606 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -34.9, W -44.9, M -33.3 /
Platinum cot report is showing us a very bullish picture… The fact the Large Speculators are net short is “scary”, haven’t happened too many times in the past. FTG scores are still bearish which means patience could be needed / further decline in the short-medium term is likely.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C,LS – 227 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -64.3, W -19.2, M -15.7 /
Similarly to Platinum, we have a significant bullish cot signal, but here the FTG system is indicating (especially in the short term – daily) a very bearish picture… I’d wait for FTG score values to at least settle down before I take any action.

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · July 23, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 22% /
FTG Score / D 35.4, W 35.1, M 25.5 /
The bearish cot change signal is telling us that prices will not be able to continue their rise early this week, but FTG Score 35.4 (Daily) is supporting higher prices. I would step away from Nasdaq for now…

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -54.5, W -41.5, M -23.8 /
All Time cot extreme are always exciting to have in a market. Neither Commercials nor LS have held such big long/short positions in the cot History of Coffee. We can expect a major change in the trend. The only BIG question is “when”? For this, it is advisable to go into details and here is where FuturesTradingGuides comes handy. FTG scores are very bearish still which warns us to be patient with entry. I would wait for the system to show me a signs of strength before entry, or at least I would cautiously enter the market (scaling in the position).

Platinum
COT Extreme / C – 1030 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -54.1, W -36.0, M -3.9 /
I have become very bullish with silver recently (prepared for the “everything bubble” to pop), so I was pretty satisfied to see Platinum producing this all time bullish cot extreme. If you open a longer chart for platinum, you can find that it has been approximately 15 years since LS were ne short in this market… unbelievable! This is a GREAT opportunity in precious metals! Similarly to my suggestion in Coffee, we might need to be patient, FTG scores are still very bearish.

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · July 30, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 18%, SS – 16% /
FTG Score / D 41.1, W -0.1, M 14.3 /
The larger than average change in Traders positions suggests that prices may fall in the short run, but looking at the extreme, I don’t see why the USD Index cannot continue the rise.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -43.8, W -39.2, M -25.6 /
The picture here is pretty much the same. COT data shows added stress to the market. FTG score have changed a bit since last week, showing modest signs that technical maybe slowly shifting the bullish bias that the cot report is indicating.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / C, LS – 577 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -21.4, W -40.9, M -4.5 /
Very large bullish stress in CHF suggesting higher prices are on the corner, but FTG scores warn caution, we may need to wait a few more days, possibly weeks. I think it is important to analyze all such currencies (measured in USD) together with the USD Index.

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · September 9, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. This time I want to focus ONLY on metals, especially Silver!!

Silver
COT Change (52W) / C – 13%, LS – 12%, SS – 7% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -21.9, W -34, M 3.3 /
Not only do we have a bullish cot change signal in Silver, but (!) again we have reached ALL TIME COT Extreme in C & LS positions! Commercials are net long!! Amazing… Something really big is on its way…

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · September 17, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 18%, LS – 27% /
FTG Score / D 32.4, W 18.3, M 17.8 /
Bullish cot change signal together with positive reading from FuturesTradingGuides suggesting further strength in the market.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C – 240 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -28.7, W -26.9, M -21.5 /
Beautiful bullish extreme, but as said in the cot review, could further increase (lower prices supported by FTG scores).

Copper
COT Extreme / C, LS – 97 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -39.3, W -11.5, M 3.7 /
Large extreme, but not as great as in other metals… If buy in metals --> not copper!

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · October 1, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 31%. 29% /
FTG Score / D 49.1, W 9.0, M 21.4 /
All cot signals show bearishness in the market, but FTG scores seem to be supporting higher prices.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 12.2, W 30.2, M 37.0 /
All Time bearish cot extreme in the market --> getting prepared for lower prices may be a good idea.

Gold
COT Extreme / C – 875, LS – 875 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -72.3, W -42.2, M -0.3 /
Huge bullish cot extreme in Gold, but at the same time the daily FTG score (-72.3) together with the weekly (-42.2) pulls be back from the arena for a while…

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · October 15, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS – 36% 14% /
FTG Score / D -4.1, W 28.0, M 36.8 /
Interesting to see Traders still close to bullish extreme levels here. As said in the review, I think we should always have a look at the other indexes as well to get an overall picture. I had a look at the U.S. Stock Index Complex cot data (only at COTbase) and saw All Time BEARISH cot extreme!! So even with the bullish signs we have right now in Nasdaq (bullish cot change signal as well), I’m more leaning toward the idea that stock indexes are way overvalued at the moment.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -59.5, W -45.2, M -8.5 /
Although we have this beautiful bullish cot extreme (All Time), because of the significant FTG Scores I’d be more careful in entering the market. Of course if you are a long term investor, you may neglect these shorter term signals:)

Gold
COT Extreme / C – 910, LS – 911 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -10.7, W -44.1, M -9.1 /
The picture is pretty clear, the extreme we have in metals these days is astonishing. Gold seems to have bottomed and there is a good chance that we shall see rising prices!

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · October 29, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 22%, SS - 24% /
FTG Score / D 15.8, W -38.8, M -14.8 /
Larger change in Traders positions suggest some rebound in prices. The extreme has risen also, plus weekly and monthly FTG scores are bearish. We may see some decline.

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / C, LS – 176 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -54.1, W -1.4, M -10.4 /
Significant bullish extreme, but (!) caution is advised due to large bearish FTG score (daily).

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – 83 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -20.4, W -44.3, M -27.4 /
Relatively larger bullish extreme (about 1.5 years since Traders were at such levels) suggesting a possible strengthening, on the other hand FTG scores on all timeframes producing bearish signals. Picture is not that easy, we can argue in both directions.

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan · November 12, 2018

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 28%, SS - 20% /
FTG Score / D -20.5, W 12.0, M 34.7 /
We saw a bullish cot change signal, but the extreme is still bearish. This, combined with a -20.5 daily FTG score suggests to me that we may neglect the change signal and focus our attention on the larger picture.

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / C, LS – 178 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -27.9, W -0.5, M -14.3 /
The picture remained the same in the past two weeks since my last post… The bullish extreme is in place, prices should head north in the medium/long term.

Euro
COT Extreme / C – 85, LS – 86 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -61.3, W -11.3, M -12.4 /
Although bullish extreme grew larger, the HUGE daily FTG score pushes me towards the assumption that price will continue to fall.

All the best,
Dunstan