Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Wheat

COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS – 32%, SS – 21% /

Large bearish cot change signal and I think we have a relatively good bearish extreme as well (77 report extreme) that could signal further decline in Wheat. On the long run, I’d be more careful, since there has been a significant bullish extreme in the market for a pretty long time.

 

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Are prices able to go any higher? The cot report suggests that the answer to this question is: NO! But since we are talking about Crude Oil and we know that all time cot extremes can stay in a market for many weeks, we should be careful.

 

Cotton

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The cot extreme signal is clear, we may expect lower prices coming here.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

New Zealand Dollar

COT Change (52W) / C – 31%, LS – 32%, SS – 5% /

Without any help from the cot extreme picture (more or less neutral), we can only use the signal coming from the large change in Traders positions to help us in our trading decision. The signal is bullish, may affect prices early this week.

 

Cotton

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

The cot extreme widened further, which means that the chances of prices turning down is increasing.

 

Cocoa

COT Extreme / C – 254, LS – 721 report COT extreme /

LS and C are definitely backing a higher prices are coming thesis, but it would be so nice if SS were also heavily pessimistic on Cocoa

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Mexican Peso

COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 44% /

A very large cot change signal at a good resistance level. If you thing that the downtrend should continue, this may be a good opportunity to get in.

 

British Pound

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Huge All Time cot extreme signal, but caution is advised, the extreme can widen further.

 

Sugar

COT Extreme / C – 52, LS – 51 report COT extreme /

If you are considering going long in this market, it’s good to know that the cot report is backing the trade.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Mexican Peso

COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS – 26% /

COT Extreme / C, LS – 134 report COT extreme /

The cot change signal may have come a bit late, but with the cot extreme picture supporting a decline, we may still consider the opportunity arising in this market.

 

Live Cattle

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Here we have an easily readable situation, the picture is crystal clear. Maybe not right away, but going short sometime in the near future may look like a reasonable decision.

 

Natural Gas

COT Extreme / LS – 527 report COT extreme /

LS have not been so bullish in Natural gas for approximately 10 years. Although not an all time cot extreme, but still pretty significant not to take a closer look at.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Rough Rice

COT Change (52W) / C – 29%, LS – 31% /

Large bullish cot change signal (largest in the last 52 weeks) which could easily halt the decline in prices. Longer term picture? Last major extreme was bearish (last report), so we could see further decrease in prices.

 

Wheat

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Further price increase expected in this market!

 

Live Cattle

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The cot extreme signal is very obvious, but caution is advised: prices can continue their rise for a couple more weeks (or even months) and the extreme will most certainly become even larger.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

British Pound

COT Change (52W) / C – 44%, LS – 46% /

The large change in traders positions is a bearish signal for us, but it is important to see the bigger picture. The last major extreme was an unquestionable bullish cot extreme signal and it is obvious that price have gone higher since. There is a long way to go to reach bearish extreme levels, so I would think that prices can go lower, but the main signal to follow is still the bullish extreme!

 

Canadian Dollar

COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 33% /

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Wow, what a bullish situation in the Canadian Dollar! Both of our main cot signals are very bullish: large change in Traders positions AND an All Time cot extreme! Does anyone need more than that??

 

Platinum

COT Extreme / C - 405, LS – 406 report COT extreme /

Very large bullish extreme here with possibly a good risk/reward trade opportunity due to the fact of close support levels.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Australian Dollar

COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS – 28%, SS – 22% /

Both cot signals are bullish: we had a large change in Traders positions (this may have come a bit late / prices have already been rising the past week) and we have reached a relative bullish extreme.

 

Natural Gas

COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 17% /

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Stress levels have never been as high as they are now, we should expect prices to fall in the next couple of months.

 

Canadian Dollar

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Have we reached a bottom? Last week prices have gone higher. If they can finish this week with the same result, we can speculate that the cot extreme signal has taken its effect.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Heating Oil

COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS – 19%, SS – 30% /

COT Extreme / C - 60, LS – 56 report COT extreme /

Both of our main cot signals are indicating a price movement upwards.

 

Live Cattle

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Here we have an unquestionable large cot extreme signal (all time large) that is telling us prices may not continue their rally for too long.

 

Euro

COT Extreme / LS – 317 report COT extreme /

Prices fell last week --> does this mean we have reached a top? The cot report definitely supports a move downwards.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

New Zealand Dollar

COT Change (52W) / C – 52%, LS – 54%, SS – 10% /

COT Extreme / C - 214, LS – 213 report COT extreme /

Huge change in Traders positions + large bearish cot extreme signal --> cot report is supporting lower prices.

 

Sugar

COT Extreme / C - 527, LS – 513 report COT extreme /

What a beautiful picture we have here… Dynamic decline since mid 2016, now a very large bullish cot extreme. Caution is advised, since the picture would not change dramatically if prices got further down, while the extreme widens more.

 

Wheat (Kansas)

COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 30%, SS – 44% /

COT Extreme / C – 326, LS – 335 report COT extreme /

Similarly to NZD, we have both major cot signals backing a decline.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Corn

COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 24%, SS – 12% /

Without any extreme present in the market, we have only got the cot change signal that can guide us in our trading. The cot change signal is bearish and since prices were going higher last week, it is a bit easier to act upon the signal.

 

Platinum

COT Extreme / C - 414, LS – 422 report COT extreme /

Stress levels have been building up towards the bullish side for over a year now. They have reached a level that we haven’t had for the last 8 years now. Is this the time to enter long? Cautiousness is advised, extremes can grow for many weeks, months before we see a change in the trend.

 

New Zealand Dollar

COT Extreme / C – 217, LS – 219 report COT extreme /

Such a beautiful picture we have here! Huge bearish cot extreme when prices are near resistance levels --> may be a good trade, who knows...

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Canadian Dollar

COT Change (52W) / C – 12%, LS – 14% /

COT Extreme / C – 234 report COT extreme /

Bearish cot change signal combined with a bearish cot extreme signal. We should start searching for short opportunities.

 

Mexican Peso

COT Extreme / C - 216, LS – 216 report COT extreme /

Not surprisingly we have very similar situation in the Mexican Peso…

 

USD Index

COT Extreme / C – 172, LS – 172 report COT extreme /

Large specs are net short! Check the chart to see what happened in the past every time they became short.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Dow Jones-30

COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 34% /

COT Extreme / C, LS All Time COT extreme /

Ok, now this may be a trap… If you scram your analysis, you might go short right away: Huge bearish cot change signal accompanied by a all-time bearish cot extreme signal. But (!) Price has fallen last week already, so the change signal is late. The extreme signal has to be back checked by the rest of the gang --> S&P, Nasdaq, Russel. Because of the significant correlation between these markets, it’s always important to analyze them all.

 

Natural Gas

COT Extreme / SS – 194 report COT extreme /

Here we can see a great example for Small Speculators cot extreme signal. 194 report extreme… ok, not an all time, but still pretty large. Have a look at the chart and see how well these extremes signaled bottoms in the price.

 

New Zealand Dollar

COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 17% /

COT Extreme / SS – 177 report COT extreme /

Small speculators are still supporting further declines. In the near term the bullish cot change signal suggest a bit of a rise.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

S&P-400

COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 7%, SS – 23% /

We have a bullish cot change signal in a bearish cot extreme place:) Ok, this level of extreme has been in the market for over a year now and nothing really happened, prices continued their rise.

 

Dow Jones-30

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Huge, never seen before bearish extreme in this market! Still… I advise caution here: bullish extreme in russel, Nasdaq and can’t see any significant bearish extreme in s&P.

 

Sugar

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

This market seems to be giving us a good investment opportunity. I used the term “Investment”, because the report suggests a shift in the trend. Prices are likely going to move higher.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Cotton

COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 20%, SS – 16% /

Only the change in Traders positions is what we can act upon: the signal is bearish. It is not backed by the cot extreme signal, so maybe not the best signal, but still good to know.

 

Euro

COT Extreme / LS – 330 report COT extreme /

Pretty large bearish cot extreme in Euro, but caution is advised, this could go on longer…

 

Rough Rice

COT Extreme / C - 304, LS – 311 report COT extreme /

Pretty nice bearish extreme in Rice… If you trade rice and you see opportunity on the downside, it’s good to know that the cot report is backing you

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Lean Hogs

COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 17%, SS – 30% /

COT Extreme / SS – All Time COT extreme /

Both major cot signals are indicating higher prices on the horizon… We have a bullish cot change signal, an all time bullish cot extreme is Small Specs (LS and C are not at their all time extremes, but definitely closer to their bullish extreme)

 

Russel-2000

COT Extreme / C, LS – 477 report COT extreme /

VERY interesting picture here… Prices near all time highs, but at the same time, we have a bullish cot extreme.

 

Mexican Peso

COT Extreme / C - 223, LS – 223 report COT extreme /

Prices are unable to go any higher, but we are not that surprised, when we have a 223 report bearish cot extreme.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Australian Dollar

COT Extreme / C, LS – 231 report COT extreme /

Pretty large bearish cot extreme signal is the Australian Dollar. Check out the chart, you can see I have indicated all the major bearish extremes in the past 5 years. It is hard to tell exactly when the turning point comes, but it is for sure that the stress level in this market has reached an extreme.

 

USD Index

COT Extreme / C, LS – 180 report COT extreme /

Commercials are again LONG!! We haven’t seen this for a long time now… Check the chart and see what happened to the USD Index after Commercials became net long.

 

British Pound

COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 37%, SS – 10% /

COT Extreme / C - 99, LS – 97 report COT extreme /

The bearish extreme here is not as strong as it is in AUD, but it should still be taken into consideration. What we have here compared the previous two markets is an unquestionable cot change signal (bearish) --> Traders have changed their positions pretty dynamically.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

S&P-400

COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 17%, SS – 37% /

COT Index (5y) / C – 8%, LS – 85% /

Both major cot signals are pointing downwards: the large change in traders positions at such price levels suggest a bit of a pullback early this week, but the bearish cot extreme also indicates that chances of a stable continuation of the rally is decreasing.

 

Heating Oil

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Get ready for a top… The picture can’t be any clearer:)

 

Canadian Dollar

COT Extreme / C - 244, LS – 254 report COT extreme /

Here we have a bearish extreme plus 3 week decline already which proves that the signal can be considered effective. We could experience a rebound, but in the medium to long term time horizon, I’d be betting on lower prices.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

30-Year Bond

COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 27%, SS – 16% /

Large bullish cot change signal, plus a bit more bullish extreme. My bet is upwards:)

 

Canadian Dollar

COT Extreme / C - 245, LS – 256 report COT extreme /

The bearish extreme that has turned the price down in the CAD has widened further which in my opinion support even lower prices.

 

British Pound

COT Extreme / C - 165, LS – 159 report COT extreme /

Pretty much the same picture as in CAD.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

S&P-400

COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 7%, SS – 21% /

Bearish cot change signal (not really strong, I’d put it aside) and a still bearish extreme. Conclusion would be to go short, but we are talking about an index and you can see how indexes reacted to bearish extremes in the past…

 

Euro

COT Extreme / LS – 335 report COT extreme /

Significant bearish extreme is still present in the market --> we can expect further decline in the market.

 

Canadian Dollar

COT Extreme / C - 246, LS – 257 report COT extreme /

Interesting, but the bearish extreme in the Canadian Dollar does not seem to weaken even though prices have started falling. In my view this support further weakness in the market.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

Edited November 4, 2017 by tradingwizzard

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

5-Year Note

COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 36%, SS – 23% /

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Possibly the BEST combination we can wish for! Not only do we have huge sudden changes in Traders positions (bullish cot signal), but this is happening, when we have stress levels in the market that we have never witnessed in the past! Beautiful bullish picture!

 

Lean Hogs

COT Extreme / SS – All Time COT extreme /

Interesting to see on Small Speculators signaling a direction! Of course this is just a good example for us to know: maybe they are “small”, but they definitely count! Have a look at that happened back in the end of 2013 (see attached chart). We had a pretty much similar situation as now. If it is not clear: we have a bullish signal from the report.

 

Canadian Dollar

COT Index (3yr) / C – 1%, LS – 99%, SS – 94% /

Not much change from last week, further weakness on the horizon.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Swiss Frank

COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 21% /

Both of our major signals are pointing upwards. Maybe the extreme could be even larger --> that would be a more comfortable situation.

 

Coffee

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture is crystal clear, we have a huge stress in coffee and we can expect it to erupt soon!

 

Feeder Cattle

COT Extreme / C – All Time COT extreme /

Commercials have never been as short (net) as they are now --> huge bearish cot signal, but caution is advised, I would not be surprised if prices would continue to rise a little bit more.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Swiss Frank

COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 28%, SS – 15% /

COT Index (3yr) / C - 83%, LS – 15%, SS – 22% /

Last week I said: “Both of our major signals are pointing upwards. Maybe the extreme could be even larger --> that would be a more comfortable situation.” Well that is what happened, we have now reached an even greater extreme! Things are becoming pretty supporting for CHF.

 

5-Year Note

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Beautiful! There is nothing better, when we have a bullish all time cot extreme signal at deep low prices!

 

10-Year Note

COT Extreme / SS – 606 report COT extreme /

The picture is not as bullish as it is for 5-year note, but small specs are pretty pessimistic about the market and that is definitely a good sign for higher prices.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Soybean Meal

COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 17% /

Bearish cot change signal and bearish extreme situation close to good resistance levels.

 

Curde Oil

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The all-time cot extreme has widened further, so my remark on caution was valid last time.

 

Swiss Franc

COT Extreme / LS - 284 report COT extreme /

Further increase in the extreme, although price is headed higher.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

S&P-500

COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 25%, SS – 39% /

Bearish cot change signal and bearish extreme, but I’d pass… Indexes are simply too risky to short now I believe…

 

Curde Oil

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The all time cot extreme in CL has risen to even greater levels, but price has not yet fallen too deep.

 

S&P-400

COT Extreme / C – All Time COT extreme /

All Time cot extreme in Commercials, supporting S&P-500 bearish bias...

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Australian Dollar

COT Change (52W) / C – 45%, LS – 59%, SS – 12% /

Both of our major cot signals are showing positive signs for the market: we have had a major change in Traders positions and with it we have reached a considerable bullish stress level. I would say that the chances are high for further increase.

 

Coffee

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture speaks for itself! Beautiful bullish extreme close to support levels.

 

30-Year Bond

COT Extreme / LS – 679 report COT extreme /

Interesting to see such a large bearish extreme when prices are not actually that high… I wouldn’t be betting large on further declines, but who knows. I would rather look for other opportunities that are more obvious (like coffee for example).

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts