Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Sugar

COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS – 33%, SS – 31% /

We have a larger cot change then average, but hey (!), look at the larger picture: we are not far off from a huge bullish cot extreme. Prices are just simply reacting to that. It’s possible to see a bit of a decline in the next few days, a bit of a rebound, but I’d focus on the larger picture.

 

Lumber

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

I LOVE THESE SCENARIOS! Do I need to say anything here?! Come on… It is soooo obvious:)

 

Feeder Cattle

COT Extreme / LS - 115, SS – 114 report COT extreme /

Large bullish cot extreme in the market suggesting higher prices coming. Caution for two reasons: Extreme has plenty of space to widen + dynamic decline present.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Mexican Peso

COT Change (52W) / C – 39%, LS – 40%, SS – 13% /

We have a bearish cot change signal, but at the same time we are not that far away from a bullish extreme. We could assume a drop in prices in the near future, but on a larger time horizon, to me the picture is bullish.

 

Lumber

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

Well, what can I say… If you were following this thread last week, you shouldn’t be surprised to see Lumber rallying.

 

Feeder Cattle

COT Extreme / LS - 116, SS – 116 report COT extreme /

From last week’s price movements in FC, it seems that the relative bullish cot extreme has taken its effect. We may as well be prepared for further increases coming.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Euro

COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 26%, SS – 27% /

Bullish cot change signal coming after a rebound in the recent rally. Let’s not forget that the rally was signaled well earlier by the bullish cot extreme in the market. It is still in place / at least we do not have a serious bearish cot extreme signal yet.

 

Silver

COT Extreme / C – 380, LS – 515 report COT extreme /

I’m keeping it short: Bearish cot extreme.

 

Sugar

COT Extreme / C – 74, LS - 68, SS – 102 report COT extreme /

Time for selling / exiting longs… at least that is what the recent cot report suggests.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

RBOB Gasoline

COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 6%, SS – 53% /

The cot change signal is bearish, could push prices lower the next few days. The larger picture: Small Specs were heavily pessimistic last week, I’d say that is a strong bullish signal. Because of the support levels not far, it may be a good risk/reward trade.

 

Sugar

COT Extreme / C – 104, LS - 75, SS – 105 report COT extreme /

Heavily bearish sign from the cot report. Prices were unable to sustain the gains of early last week, this supports the bearish picture.

 

Platinum

COT Extreme / C – 39, LS – 59 report COT extreme /

In the past year, we had a rather bullish picture presented in the cot report, but prices continued their decline. The extreme we have at the moment is far away from being able to influence the market, so the decline can easily continue.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Platinum

COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 43%, SS – 21% /

Large bullish cot change signal combined with a bullish extreme = Very positive for the market!

 

Wheat (Kansas)

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

All Time cot extreme /bullish/ --> says it all: We should expect prices to bottom soon, and start rallying. Caution of course is advised (!) --> the extreme can grow larger, while prices head downwards, so we may need to wait a few more weeks. Keep your eyes open!

 

Coffee

COT Extreme / C – 104, LS – 104 report COT extreme /

I think the chart gives us a clear picture: Prices are ready to RALLY!!

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Cocoa

COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 33%, SS – 17% /

Both of our main cot signals are bullish. The change was much larger than average, but the extreme is also relatively large. Although prices may continue their decline (the extreme can widen further), a bit of an upwards price reaction could be in place.

 

Copper

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

Large Speculators have never held such large short positions in the past, we do have an all time cot extreme situation, a very large bullish signal. As it is clearly visible on the chart, even if these signals were unable to change the Trend drastically, they did stop the decline temporarily.

 

Palladium

COT Extreme / C – 188, LS – 187 report COT extreme /

The picture is very similar to what we can see in copper. The cot extreme is huge! Here we can also find Small Specs being very pessimistic about the market and as you can see on the chart, that always signaled the end for a decline.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

New Zealand Dollar

COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 15%, SS – 24% /

The last major cot extreme signal was bullish and it is still in place. The larger cot change signal present is also bullish.

 

Copper

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

The extreme has widened further since last week. Much has not changed, so we can still state that the picture is very bullish. This of course does not mean that we should jump right in the market, these extremes can exist for many weeks or even months before any price reaction.

 

Soybean Meal

COT Extreme / C – 213, LS – 571 report COT extreme /

With the exception of Small Specs, who were net short, the picture is very similar to what we had back in 2011. Nevertheless the signal is huge, very bullish. I very much like this market!!

 

All the best,

Dunstan

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Platinum

COT Change (52W) / C – 45%, LS – 41%, SS – 19% /

It looks as if prices started to react to bullish cot extreme signal that has been present in the market for some time now. We should not be surprised to see such a larger change in Traders positions. It may influence prices and push them back in the near term, but let’s not forget that the stronger cot signal is the extreme!

 

Wheat (Kansas)

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

When we reach and all time cot extreme in a market, there is not too much I can add, the picture is pretty obvious. The only important note I may add is that these extremes can go on for many weeks before price starts to react!

 

Cotton

COT Extreme / C – 52, LS – 52 report COT extreme /

We have a relative bullish cot extreme in the market, but caution is advised: with even greater extremes (second half of 2014 for example) the market may still head downwards.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[kuokam 10]

Hi Dun,

Re. Cotton, I don't see the extremes in the net positions, as they are getting near to zero. By "relative cot extreme" , do you mean the cot index ?

 

Thanks

 

 

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Platinum

COT Change (52W) / C – 45%, LS – 41%, SS – 19% /

It looks as if prices started to react to bullish cot extreme signal that has been present in the market for some time now. We should not be surprised to see such a larger change in Traders positions. It may influence prices and push them back in the near term, but let’s not forget that the stronger cot signal is the extreme!

 

Wheat (Kansas)

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

When we reach and all time cot extreme in a market, there is not too much I can add, the picture is pretty obvious. The only important note I may add is that these extremes can go on for many weeks before price starts to react!

 

Cotton

COT Extreme / C – 52, LS – 52 report COT extreme /

We have a relative bullish cot extreme in the market, but caution is advised: with even greater extremes (second half of 2014 for example) the market may still head downwards.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi Dun,

Re. Cotton, I don't see the extremes in the net positions, as they are getting near to zero. By "relative cot extreme" , do you mean the cot index ?

 

Thanks

 

Hi Kuokam,

 

Sorry for replying so late...

 

What I meant was that the cot extreme is relatively large in the market. It doesn't matter if net positions are close to 0... what matters is how it stands in the history. In cotton we can see that net positions for LS and C mean bullish extremes.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Lumber

COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 32%, SS – 23% /

The cot change signal indicates that prices can fall on the near future, but a cot extreme is still bullish.

 

Wheat (Chicago)

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bullish signal.

 

Soybean Meal

COT Extreme / C – 576, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bullish signal.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Mexican Peso

COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 36%, SS – 21% /

We have a change in Traders positions that is much larger than average and it is a bearish cot signal. Prices have gone down last week Thursday, so the signal may be a little late for us. The cot extreme is relatively bearish and as you can see on the chart, when it reached these levels the last two times, prices went further down. The longer term picture of course is definitely bullish, we are far away from All Time or close to AT bearish cot extreme leves.

 

Silver

COT Extreme / C – 541, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bearish signal.

 

Japanese Yen

COT Extreme / C – 421, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bearish signal.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Crude Oil

COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 37%, SS – 53% /

Both of our main cot signals are bearish. We have a huge cot change signal (largest in the past 52 weeks) and we have reached a significant cot extreme level also. Of course caution is advised, these extremes can become much larger, but nevertheless, we have a bearish picture from the report.

 

Sugar

COT Extreme / C – 435 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bearish signal.

 

Lumber

COT Extreme / C – 164, LS – 166 report COT extreme /

Not an all time cot extreme like in Sugar, but still significant showing us that the rally may be over soon…

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

Sorry for being away for so long… I’m back again:)

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Crude Oil

COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 23%, SS – 47% /

Having a more or less neutral cot extreme picture in the market it is only the change signal (which is bearish) that we can act on if have to. Although it is large and visible, I would only take it into consideration if besides cot analysis my view would be bearish.

 

S&P-400

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture is very clear and obvious, but in case of indexes, the “correlation factor” should not be neglected. It is very important to have a look at other markets as well, such as Nasdaq, Dow and the S&P-500.

 

British Pound

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Another all time cot extreme signal, now in a currency. Currencies react well to cot signals, so we can expect the GBP to move higher on this bullish signal, but (!) don’t forget that these all time cot extreme can be in the market for many weeks before anything happens.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Feeder Cattle

COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 22%, SS – 8% /

The trend in FC is still bearish. We have had a bit of a rise in prices in recent weeks after the cot report was showing a bullish cot extreme, but now we have this large cot change signal that support price actions in the direction of the main trend.

 

S&P-500

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

Last week it was only S&P-400, but now we have S&P-500 following. This just further supports the fact that stress levels in indexes are rising rapidly.

 

British Pound

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

The all time cot extreme is still present, stress levels are rising. As I have said it last week, this picture may stay the same for many weeks or even months before we see a reaction in price.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Copper

COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 31%, SS – 26% /

Although the cot change signal indicates that prices could jump up now, because of the strength of the bearish cot extreme that we had, I think we should be cautious with any buying now.

 

S&P-500

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture did not change from last week, let’s be patient!

 

Dow Jones-30

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

The third index to have all time cot extreme in Large speculators positions. This definitely strengthens the cot extreme signal in general for indexes as a whole.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

USD Index

COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 46%, SS – 1% /

The change in traders positions was huge! This could mean that the dollar index will fall a bit beginning of this week. The cot extreme does not show too much. I would say that it supports the continuation of the rise.

 

Heating Oil

COT Extreme / C,LS – 189 report COT extreme /

We have a very clear bearish cot extreme signal, but caution is advised, since we can easily see further increases in stress levels before the actual top comes.

 

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / C - 116, LS – 117 report COT extreme /

Similarly to Heating Oil (of course not unexpectedly due to the natural correlation between these markets), we have a bearish cot extreme that is large enough to be taken into consideration in our trading.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Wheat

COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 29%, SS – 5% /

Bullish cot change signal and a relatively bullish extreme in the market, so we can state that the cot report definitely supports higher prices.

 

Soybean Oil

COT Extreme / C – 1370 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture is crystal clear: we have an all time bearish cot extreme --> expect a top soon.

 

Nasdaq-100

COT Extreme / C – 619 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /

A very large bearish cot extreme here, but before any sudden moves, I advise you to check the other indexes as well.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

Edited November 22, 2016 by tradingwizzard

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Wheat

COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS – 30%, SS – 8% /

We have a 30% bearish cot change signal – I wouldn’t act on it – and a cot extreme picture showing bullishness… I’d step aside from this market for now.

 

Cotton

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Although we’ve got an all time cot extreme, I’m not that confident that cotton will change it’s path for now. I will wait for further increase in the stress level.

 

Russel-2000

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

All Time cot extreme in all major participants positions, but trading indexes these days is risky business.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Wheat

COT Change (52W) / C – 40%, LS – 28%, SS – 34% /

I’m still on the sidelines here…

 

Cotton

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

No change from last report.

 

Copper

COT Extreme / C – 681 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Huge, all time cot extreme here that developed very fast. I think this is a good signal that we can act upon.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Wheat

COT Change (52W) / C – 21%, LS – 17%, SS – 11% /

If you look at the 5 years long chart, you can see that maybe, just maybe the bullish cot extreme that has been present in the market for many many months now is taking an effect on Wheat. I can imagine that we might have reached a bottom and we will see further increases in prices, but the cot change signal that we got now suggests a bit of a reaction downwards.

 

Heating Oil

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Since the last major bullish cot extreme, prices have gone dynamically higher. The recent report shows us that Traders have gone from their most bullish extreme levels to their most bearish extreme. We may have reached a top!

 

S&P-400

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Stress levels at record highs, but what do the other indexes show? Because of the significant correlation between indexes, such signals should be dealt with caution.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Wheat (Chicago)

COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS – 37%, SS – 36% /

Prices have not gone much higher since the first report came out, and we’ve just received another bearish cot change signal, this time an even greater one. Traders are dynamically moving the market towards it’s bearish extreme. Although in the long run, I am expecting much higher prices to come, there may be a reaction in the market.

 

Cotton

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture here seems to be pretty obvious: we have an all time cot extreme in the market, so we should be prepared for a change in the trend.

 

Cocoa

COT Extreme / LS – 236 report COT extreme /

The last time Large specs were net short, price of Cocoa was at a bottom. Although the extreme can further widen, become larger, I think that this opportunity should be carefully analyzed.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Soybean Meal

COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 22%, SS – 42% /

After a dynamic increase in prices during the last two weeks, we shouldn’t be surprised to see such a sudden change in Traders positions. The signal of course is bearish, but the cot extreme shows us that we can reach even higher prices the next couple of weeks, months.

 

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / C – 133 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Huge bearish cot extreme signal. Will this mean a top? The last time we were at such extreme levels, prices started to fall. Caution is advised: it would be too simple to expect history to repeat itself exactly the same way. I would be prepared for further increases.

 

S&P-400

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

Have a look at other indexes before entering short just because we got an all time cot extreme signal here.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Oats

COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 21% /

Cot change signal indicating that prices may drop early this week, but the wider picture (last major cot extreme being bullish) shows that prices could easily continue their rally.

 

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

No change from last week.

 

S&P-400

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

No change from last week.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

RBOB Gasoline

COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 21% /

Bullish cot change signal, but coming a bit late, prices have already jumped higher. The cot extreme is not that clear either, so I’d rather stay out of this market for now.

 

Cocoa

COT Extreme / C - 243, LS – 657 report COT extreme /

Holly Sh*t! Now that is serious decline… Although we have got this very large COT extreme signal (bullish of course), we need to be careful: this extreme can easily become even larger the next couple of weeks, before we reach a bottom. Nevertheless, it is a great market that is providing us with trading opportunities, so let’s keep an eye on Cocoa!

 

Live Cattle

COT Extreme / C, LS – 112 report COT extreme /

Bearish cot extreme here. I wouldn’t jump in here, but if you are a regular LC trader than it’s good to know that the cot report supports lower prices for now.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

COT Charts