Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

S&P-500

COT Change (52W) / C – 44%, LS – 31%, SS – 21% /

The situation is pretty confusing… Prices were unable to decline further, while the extreme was so large. Now we see Traders moving away from their extremes while the market is back to the rally. I’m unable to draw any conclusions from the cot report right now, the only interesting fact is that Small Speculators are the only ones Long now, both Commercials and Large speculators are Short.

 

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Large Speculators have built up such large net long positions (while Commercials net short) that we haven’t seen in Crude Oil before… It is an unquestionable bearish cot extreme signal that may take prices down soon.

 

Coffee

COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS – 20%, SS – 22% /

COT Extreme / C – 124 report, LS – 124 report COT extreme /

The very large changes that we have may be able to slow down the rally a bit, but in the medium/longer term the bullish cot extreme that we had not long ago is influencing the market: the trend has changed, we are in a bull market again.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Soybean Oil

COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 40% /

Technically, we are close to an important resistance level, so the large cot change may capable of stopping the rally, BUT (!) let’s not forget that in the medium, longer term cot extreme signals are the real “price movers”. You may see that about a month ago (basically when we’ve reach the bottom), we were close to an all-time cot extreme. If prices are able to continue their rise (judging by the dynamics of price in the last few weeks, I think they’re able to) and we see Large Speculators becoming net long once again, then I think we can be pretty sure that the trend is once again pointing upwards.

 

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

I can only repeat myself: the extreme is “All Time” large, so we are expecting prices to decline. Important remark: cot all time extreme can exist for many weeks, before price reaction.

 

Coffee

COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 17% /

COT Extreme / C – 145 report, LS – 144 report COT extreme /

Enjoy the ride:) --> for all of you, who reacted on the bullish cot extreme signal that we had in the end of last year. You may ask: Ok, great, but how long could this ride last? If we look at the historical charts, tops developed when Commercials were holding more than 40.000 contracts net short (LS, roughly the opposite / this is true since about 2004). Because of the dynamics both in price and in the cot report, I think that we may reach even >60.000 contracts before the rally is exhausted.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Nasdaq-100

COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS – 32% /

COT Index (3 yr) / C – 1%, LS – 90%, SS – 70% /

The large change in Traders positions is a bearish cot signal that could affect prices in the near term. Not only do we have this larger change, but also a cot extreme that indicates an end for the rally. Of course we should see that for the past 1-1,5 years we have reached these extreme levels multiple times without any major price reaction. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this extreme could become even much greater when we eventually reach a top.

 

Coffee

COT Extreme / C – 146 report, LS – 146 report COT extreme /

Nothing special here, the extreme is becoming larger and larger as prices are rising. As I’ve said last week, we should expect a change in the trend once Commercials and Large Speculators reach their bearish all time cot extremes.

 

Wheat (Minn.)

COT Extreme / C – 111 report, LS – 96 report COT extreme /

Although we’ve reached a cot extreme worth mentioning, on the 5 year chart we can see that there is still space left for the extreme to widen. This relative cot extreme examined in context with traditional TA tools (clearly visible downwards channel) may paint a more bearish picture: so I’m not saying that we need to wait for a much greater cot extreme to see prices decline, the extreme is already large enough that we can think about a short trade.

 

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Palladium

COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 36% /

Looking closer at the chart, we can see that the cot change signals in Palladium were pretty effective. Interestingly, there were more bullish change signals then bearish ones… The change we have now says that prices will fall. If we look at a longer chart, we can see that we have moved away from the bearish cot extreme that was present in the market in 2013. We can of course get there again, but for now, it seems that the extreme is not that large yet to really

end to the rally in Palladium.

 

Russel-2000

COT Change (52W) / C – 31%, LS – 28%, SS – 30% /

Similarly to Palladium, we can state that cot change signals in Russel-2000 are usable signals. Luckily we’ve got a bit more example for the bearish ones. The cot change signal we’ve got now is a stronger one suggesting a decline in prices. The cot extreme could be larger and if so, it would be a much easier task to decide what to do… If we choose to give it a chance, I’d strongly recommend it with a smaller position size or tighter stops.

 

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Last week we have seen some signals that indicate: we may have reached a top… The all time extreme became even greater than before --> stress levels are HUGE in CL.

 

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Soybean Oil

COT Change (52W) / C – 29%, LS – 27%, SS - 37% /

COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 25%, LS – 73%, SS - 72% /

The change was very large and we also have a relatively large cot extreme – both of these bearish signals. An unquestionable bearish cot extreme signal would be the case if commercials were below 100.000 contracts net short / large specs above 80.000 contracts net long, but I believe that this extreme may already be strong enough to influence prices.

 

Wheat

COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS – 19%, SS – 19% /

COT Index (3 yr.) / SS - 100% /

Similarly to Soybean Oil, the cot change and cot extreme signals are bearish. What we can see here is that small speculators are relatively the most optimistic (cot index on a 3 years lookback period). On the other hand, if we look at the rally in 2010 and the one in 2012 (both of them starting after a bullish cot extreme – similar to the one that started the recent rally), and how traders moved their positions, I believe that there could be fuel left in the rally.

 

Coffee

COT Extreme / C – 159, LS – 159 report COT extreme /

There’s not much I could say here, since the picture is pretty clear: after the bullish cot extreme of last year, prices have finally lifted off and are in a strong rally. The bearish cot extreme is becoming larger very fast which warns us to be careful about further buying… I’m not saying that the rally is over, there’s still much space left for the extreme to become larger, but we should look carefully at the developments in coffee and know when to get off the roller-coaster.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Japanese Yen

COT Change (52W) / C – 46%, LS – 44%, SS - 38% /

The large change (largest change size in the last 52 weeks) may easily push prices a bit lower, but in the medium to longer term, if the bullish cot extreme from last year holds, prices should further rally.

 

Lumber

COT Extreme / C – 268, LS – 274 report COT extreme /

The cot extreme we have now in Lumber supports the continuation of the rally that is present.

 

Coffee

COT Extreme / C – 187, LS – 187 report COT extreme /

“The bearish cot extreme is becoming larger very fast which warns us to be careful about further buying… “ After last week’s price actions, it seems that my warning a week ago was meaningful. Although we have space left for the extreme to become larger, the speed of the rally and the widening of the extreme parallel to it makes you cautious. I can’t tell what is go’na happen to Coffer now, because both sides have their reasons… I mean if Bears win, and prices continue last week’s decline, we may start thinking that the rally is over, but if Bulls turn out to be stronger, prices shift back into rally mode, we know that the extreme can get larger, thus we can look at last week’s decline as only a bit of reaction in the market.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Nasdaq-100

COT Change (52W) / C – 44%, LS –39%, SS - 12% /

COT change signals – in my experience – were successful signals many times in indexes. The large change in Traders positions in this recent cot report could be again another good signal (bullish of course). The cot extreme of course is pointing in the other direction, so any bullish trades should be taken carefully.

 

Feeder Cattle

COT Extreme / C – 20, LS – 103, SS - 105 report COT extreme /

The cot extreme is becoming significant, we should start expecting a top soon… on the other hand, this extreme can grow further, volume and open interest scores are supporting the rise.

 

Wheat

COT Extreme / C - 67, LS – 67 report COT extreme /

Similarly to FC, the extreme is large, but there is no reason to think that prices can’t go further UP --> In the last 5 years, we have had two larger extremes that were capable of ending rallies. I would say that the bullish cot extreme from the end of last year (that started the recent rally) is still in place.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Japanese Yen

COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS –23%, SS - 25% /

Both major cot signals, the cot change in the recent report and the cot extreme a few months ago indicate higher prices for the future.

 

Feeder Cattle

COT Extreme / C – 103, LS – 104, SS - 107 report COT extreme /

While the extreme has grown larger since last week, volume and open interest scores are not that supportive anymore for the rise in prices. We are expecting a top soon…

 

Wheat

COT Extreme / C - 69, LS – 68 report COT extreme /

If last week’s decline continuous this week, then we may need to assume that we’ve reached a relative bearish cot extreme – similar to the one from the end of last year – which could push prices down, even below 550. Since we are approx. 25.000 contracts away from All Time extreme levels (both for LS and C), it’s not that easy to determine what the case is… is this a relative extreme (if so, prices will most probably fall), or the extreme will become larger in the next few weeks.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Nasdaq-100

COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS –38%, SS - 36% /

COT Extreme / SS – All Time COT extreme /

The cot change signal (in case of Commercials and Large Speculators only) is bullish, but on the other hand we’ve got the major cot extreme (became all time in SS just now), which is bearish. It’s pretty hard to tell now, whether prices will continue their decline or as they’ve done it many times during the last 5 years, bounce back upwards.

 

British Pound

COT Extreme / C – 163, LS – 164 report COT extreme /

I think we’ve got a great trading opportunity: The cot extreme signal is clear and visible, while trading wise we’ve reached an important resistance level, where we can easily construct a good risk/reward trade!

 

Rough Rice

COT Extreme / C - 101, LS – 130 report COT extreme /

On a shorter time frame (let’s say 2-3 years), we may be looking at the market as good shorting opportunity. If we take the time to have a look at a longer time horizon, we can see that actually Traders are far away from their bearish extremes. Of course in the near term, we may witness a bit of a drop in prices, but I don’t think we should expect any major and especially long lasting price falls.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

RBOB Gasoline

COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS –32% /

Both the cot change signal now and the level of cot extreme in the market suggest prices should fall. All Traders are getting pretty close to their all time cot extreme (C and LS are approx. 25.000 contracts away).

 

British Pound

COT Extreme / C – 350, LS – 164 report COT extreme /

The extreme has widened, prices were unable to drastically strengthen, so I think last week’s comments are still valid.

 

Feeder Cattle

COT Extreme / LS - 108, SS – 109 report COT extreme /

Looking at the charts it’s difficult to believe that prices can go any higher, but if we examine the cot data, we can find that there were larger extremes in the past, we have not reached all time cot extreme levels yet! I’m not saying that prices will definitely go much higher, the picture is pretty obvious, but there’s still space left for all major participants to reach their greatest extremes.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Soybeans

COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS –17% /

The cot change signal is present, although not that large. It is bullish. We haven’t got a significant cot extreme, so there’s not too much supporting information from the cot data this week.

 

Russel-2000

COT Extreme / C – 94, LS – 94 report COT extreme /

Interestingly, we are starting to see more bullish cot extreme in indexes these days, even though prices are pretty high! This is supporting the continuation of the rally.

 

RBOB Gasoline

COT Extreme / C – 58, LS - 54, SS – 60 report COT extreme /

The cot extreme is becoming larger week by week. It is of course bearish, but it can become larger than now (just look at the 5 years chart and see for yourself).

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

Although I could not find the newest commitment of traders review on cotbase.com, I’ll update the post anyway with some interesting markets:

 

Wheat

COT Change (52W) / C – 18%, LS –19% /

COT Extreme / C – 75, LS - 75 report COT extreme /

Both, the cot change signal and the cot extreme indicate that prices may not be able to continue (at least for too long) their current rise. The change in Traders positions was much larger than the average, so already in the near term, I expect a bit of a decline. In the medium term, prices may go up higher, but if you open a 5 years chart, you will see clearly that the extreme is becoming significant, thus we should be cautious with further buying.

 

Coffee

COT Extreme / C – 195, LS – 193 report COT extreme /

The cot extreme is once again very large in coffee, this time it is of course a bearish cot extreme signal. Will prices top out soon, I can’ tell, but there’s a chance that prices will further rise. If you look at what happened back in 2010 when the cot extreme reached such levels, you can see that price reaction came only months afterwards.

 

Soybeans

COT Extreme / SS – 200 report COT extreme /

Interestingly, there’s not too much to talk about if we analyze only Commercials and Large Specs activity… but if we take the time to have a look at the smaller players of the market, we will see that they ARE pretty extreme in the market, they are VERY bearish… and we know what that means:) --> bullish signal.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

S&P-500

COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS –17% /

It looks like the rally can continue… The bullish cot change signals accompanied by no real bearish cot extremes paint the picture bullish in indexes.

 

RBOB Gasoline

COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS –25% /

The bullish cot change signal we have in Gasoline may be able to take prices a bit higher in the short term, but if we look at the cot extreme situation, you will see that the chances of further declining prices (after the last two weeks) are higher.

 

Wheat

COT Extreme / C – 76, LS - 76 report COT extreme /

The cot extreme is getting larger and larger week by week. I do not think that the rally can continue for too long anymore, I’m expecting prices to reach a top soon.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Euro

COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS –22% /

The last major cot extreme that we has in Euro was the bullish all time cot extreme back in 2012. I believe that it is still in effect and prices are more likely to continue their rise for now. The cot change signal also signals rising prices.

 

Dow Jones-30

COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 27%, SS – 22% /

COT Index (3yr.) / C – 75%, LS – 40%, SS – 0% /

It is pretty interesting to see such a cot report at these price levels: we are closer to bullish cot extreme levels than bearish levels!! Ok, the cot change signal is bearish this week, but we know that if it will affect prices, only in the near term. The general picture, at least the one that is painted by the cot report, suggests that prices can rally even further!

 

Wheat

COT Extreme / LS - 77 report COT extreme /

It seems that my feeling last week was good: we may have reached a top in Wheat. The cot extreme is large enough already, so the chances are a bit larger for declining prices.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

S&P-500

COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS –38% /

The cot change IS large (bullish cot signal) and we have no bearish cot extreme, on the contrary, in some of the indexes, we are seeing more of a bullish extreme! Conclusion: although cot analysis may not be the most effective in indexes, analyzing the report, I think the rally is not over.

 

Japanese Yen

COT Change (52W) / C – 18%, LS – 12%, SS – 35% /

The 18% in Commercials and the 12% in Large Specs (changes) wouldn’t be in my opinion something to talk about, but the 35% in Small Specs is a significant change. It is of course a bearish cot signal, so I’m expecting a bit of a decline in the near term. The cot data on the wider time horizon says that prices can continue their rise, at least the last major cot extreme signal was bullish (at the end of last year). It is still in place, until prices go below the last bottom, which would result in a widening cot extreme.

 

Platinum

COT Extreme / C – 64, LS - 64 report COT extreme /

The bearish extreme is widening, while prices are rallying. I think there is still some time left, before we reach the next top, and it would be nice to see small speculators reaching an extreme also (above 6000 contracts net long).

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Dow Jones-30

COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS –22% /

The larger than average cot change may cause a little decline, but the I’d say it is the extreme that causes me to think: the rally isn’t over yet!

 

Mexican Peso

COT Extreme / C – 51, LS - 51 report COT extreme /

The bullish cot extreme in the beginning of this year has stopped the decline in prices. There is plenty of space for Traders to build up larger positions --> the rally should continue.

 

Euro

COT Extreme / C – 44, LS - 43 report COT extreme /

Until we reach a significant bearish cot extreme I would say that prices can go higher. I would expect the trend to change when LS reach 100.000 contracts (or above) net long, C reach 100.000 contracts net short (or below) net short.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Japanese Yen

COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 17%, SS - 37 /

The larger change suggests that prices may rally in the next few days and since the last major cot extreme is also a bullish signal, the longer term picture also looks brighter for the Japanese yen.

 

Silver

COT Extreme / C – 43, LS - 581 report COT extreme /

Large Speculators have reached an extreme that we haven’t seen since 2003! It is an unquestionable bullish signal and luckily at a level where the Risk/Reward of the trade seems pretty decent!

 

Australian Dollar

COT Extreme / C – 56, LS - 56 report COT extreme /

We may talk about a relative bearish cot extreme, not more… of course as the last example shows, such extremes may also influence prices, but looking at the chart, there is no question that there could be much greater extremes ahead of us.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Rough Rice

COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 26% /

COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 77%, LS – 37%, SS – 2% /

We had a pretty large change in Commercials and also in Large Speculators positions (looking at the last one year history, the change size was in the top 10%). It seems as if the signal came a bit late, since last week Thursday and Friday prices have rallied. Since the cot extreme situation is still bullish, I’d say that the chances of further rallying prices is larger.

 

Australian Dollar

COT Extreme / C – 59, LS – 57, SS - 59 report COT extreme /

Not much change since last week: relatively we may talk about an extreme, but there is still reasonable space left for Traders to become even more extreme about the market. The cot report does not really give us an edge this time.

 

Soybeans

COT Extreme / C – 43, LS – 42, SS - 217 report COT extreme /

The extreme is becoming really significant in soybeans (bullish picture). Commercials and Large Speculators have still got room for further positions, but in case of Small Speculators, they have reached All Time (close to it) extreme levels. I think prices can still decline for a while, but I’d be surprised if this decline continued for many weeks…

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

USD Index

COT Change (52W) / C – 48%, LS – 51% /

The change in USD Index was HUGE (!), but not unseen… Large Speculators are long again (above 20.000 contracts net long), but the signal is still a bearish one. The last major cot extreme was a few months ago and it was a bullish signal. I don’t believe that in the medium/long term we need to expect any serious price declines.

 

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / C,LS – All Time COT extreme /

The All Time extreme we have in Crude Oil now suggests that prices will not be able to rally further for too long… of course the all time extreme can be in the market for a few weeks or even months before any real change in the trend.

 

British Pound

COT Extreme / C – 359, LS – 340 report COT extreme /

The cot extreme in GBP is considerable and I’m expecting prices to reach a top soon.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Dow Jones-30

COT Change (52W) / C – 31%, LS – 28%, SS – 31% /

Let’s see, what do we have here… Cot extreme: we had a bullish cot extreme in the last couple of weeks, so rising prices is not surprising. The change in Traders positions this week was larger than average and a bearish signal, so we may consider a cautious trade downwards.

 

Orange Juice

COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS – 27% /

Looking at the chart it seems that cot changes were pretty effective in Orange Juice in the past years… The bullish cot change signal seems to be a good signal that we can act on.

 

British Pound

COT Extreme / C – 361, LS – 342 report COT extreme /

Prices have not yet reached their top, but as they go higher and higher, the cot extreme is becoming larger too… We may need to be a bit more patient, but I’m pretty confident that eventually prices will react to this large cot signal.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Heating Oil

COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 22%, SS – 30% /

Having no extreme in the market, it is only the cot change signal that we can act on. The change in Traders positions was significant, much larger than usual. It is a bullish signal that may influence prices in the near future. Analyzing the effectiveness of cot change signals in heating oil, we can come to the conclusion that the signals are pretty effective.

 

Platinum

COT Extreme / C – 71 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /

There is an unquestionably large cot extreme in the market (LS have never been so optimistic about the market as they are today). It would be nicer if SS were as extreme, but never the less, it is still something to talk about! Ohh, if anyone is unsure, we are talking about a bearish cot signal here:) As always, my warning: all time cot extremes can be present in a market for even months before price reaction, so be careful, pleeeease!

 

Soybeans

COT Extreme / C – 405, LS – 225 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /

What a beautiful picture we have in Soybeans!! All major participants of the market hold extremely large net positions… (bullish cot extreme signal) If you look at the charts for all soybeans market, you’ll see how well they react to cot extreme signals, so I’m personally really excited now!

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

RBOB Gasoline

COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 28%, SS – 22% /

The change in Traders positions was significant, we can talk about a cot change signal. It is bullish and looking at the last one year, we can see that in the majority of cases, these signals could effectively be used.

 

Soybeans

COT Extreme / C – 429, LS – 226 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /

The cot extreme is becoming larger and larger. It is of course extremely difficult to tell, when the decline will end, but it is pretty clear that stresses in this market will soon burst and eventually create a bottom.

 

Silver

COT Extreme / C – 196, LS – 198 report COT extreme /

Not too long ago we were talking about a bullish cot extreme, but as you can see, things can change pretty fast in the market  we are now seeing a bearish extreme. This is a warning for those of you, who took the bullish signal earlier and built up a long position.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Heating Oil

COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 13%, SS – 18% /

The largest change in Commercials positions was in Heating Oil this week, so we definitely have a cot signal that we can act on. Of course examining the chart closer, we can see that two weeks ago we had an even greater change that most probably already influenced prices and that is why we see rising prices. You may ask logically if this is gonna continue? Well the extreme situation in the market also supports further rises in Heating Oil I believe.

 

Euro

COT Change (52W) / C – 14%, LS – 16% /

COT Extreme / C –99, LS – 86, SS – 110 report COT extreme /

The change signal and the extreme we have in Euro both point upwards… If you look at small specs, you can find them as pessimistic about the market as they were back in mid 2012 when we Euro reached an important bottom. Prices may of course continue their fall, but I don’t think it would last too long…

 

Soybeans

COT Extreme / C – 430, LS – 406 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /

Do I really need to say anything here? The pictures says it all!! (unquestionable large cot buy signal)

 

I’ll be out for a summer holiday during the next two reports, so sorry in advance for not posting. I’ll be back for the 32nd cot report this year.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Mexican Peso

COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 26%, SS – 10% /

The only clear signal we have in mxp right now is the cot change signal, which is bullish. After the relative bearish extreme we had, we are moving fast towards another bullish extreme.

 

Dow Jones-30

COT Extreme / C – 212, LS – 359 report COT extreme /

The bullish cot extreme we’ve got here suggest that prices will continue the rally… We will see.

 

Cotton

COT Extreme / C – 95, LS – 91 report COT extreme /

The picture is pretty obvious: judging by the past reactions of cotton after such extremes, we should expect the downtrend to end soon.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

[Dunstan 10]

Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Palladium

COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 26%, SS – 10% /

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Both of our major cot signals this week are producing strong bearish signals. The change was quite large besides having all time extreme both in Commercials and Large specs positions. The question may be: should we start shorting the market? Well that’s up to your system to decide, but keep in mind, that these all time cot extreme are capable of being present in a market for some time before any price reaction.

 

Natural Gas

COT Extreme / C – 37, LS – 141 report COT extreme /

The extreme has become large again, has a reached a level where we can start considering a trade. It would be nicer if SS were also in a align with LS and C, but nevertheless, we have a supporting cot report for thinking long.

 

Euro

COT Extreme / C – 107, LS – 106 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /

We’ve got a considerable extreme in C and LS and an unquestionable large extreme in SS. It is of course a bullish picture, but again, I need to repeat what I just said in my analysis on Palladium: these extremes can stay for long, widen even more before any change in the trend. Still, it’s good to know that we have such stresses in the Euro, cause we can start thinking of a possible long trades.

 

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts