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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 10th January 2025. Why is the British Pound Declining? The Great British Pound is the worst performing currency of 2025 so far after witnessing sharp declines for 3 consecutive days. The decline is largely being triggered by the bond selloff, lack of business confidence due to the UK Autumn budget and political uncertainty. Will the trend continue? The GBP Index Declines 2% In 2025! Why Is The Pound Dropping? The Great British Pound is the worst performing currency of the week and of the year so far. Below you can see a table showing the Pound’s performance in January 2025 so far. GBPUSD -2.25% EURGBP +1.69% GBPJPY -1.44% GBPCHF -1.42% GBPAUD -1.91% GBPCAD -2.00% A key reason for the GBP’s decline is the latest labor budget, which is driving a selloff in UK bonds. Bonds across the global market are declining, including in the US and Germany. However, the global decline is mainly due to monetary policy. The decline in UK bond yields is due to concerns regarding the UK budget, higher costs for business and investor confidence. As a result, investors are selling UK bonds, but also reducing their exposure to the Pound. Bond Selloff and Rising Yields: Higher bond yields can sometimes strengthen a currency by attracting increased investor demand. However, this effect is unlikely when rising yields result from a bond selloff driven by declining investor confidence. The UK 30-Year Bond Yields are at their highest level since 1998 and the 10-Year Bond Yields are up to the highest level since the banking crisis of 2008. Investors’ concerns are that the higher costs for business will be passed onto consumers, triggering higher stickier inflation. As a result, the Bank of England will struggle to reduce the cost of borrowing in 2025 and foreign investors will become more cautious of operations in the UK. The short-term impact is that the UK Chancellor may struggle to meet her fiscal rules. Her budget margin of £9.9bn to avoid overshooting borrowing has likely shrunk to about £1 billion due to market shifts, even before the OBR updates its forecasts. This uncertainty may force the Treasury to cut future spending plans, but the full picture won’t emerge until the OBR's March forecast. According to reports, the UK Chancellor cannot risk higher increases in taxes and will be forced to cut public spending. The GBPUSD Falls To A 60-Week Low! The GBP is struggling against all currencies, but the sharpest decline can be seen against the USD. The GBP’s decline is partially due to the incoming president, Donald Trump, who is expected to introduce Dollar-supporting measures, but also potentially impose tariffs on the UK. The new White House administration is likely to impose new tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico. This is likely to potentially disrupt supply chains and prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt tighter monetary policy, thereby strengthening the national currency. Some experts believe the UK will face tariffs or be pressured to adopt more pro-American economic policies. This is also something the EU will likely experience. In addition to this, reports suggest that the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, and Trump supporters are not on good terms, nor agree on much including on Geo-politics. Therefore, the decline is also related to concerns the UK may be put into a difficult position by the new US administration. According to analysts, Dollar strength is likely to continue throughout the year due to the new administration’s measures, but also due to a hawkish Federal Reserve. In the latest FOMC meeting minutes, the committee stated it expects interest rates to decline at a slower pace. The Federal Reserve is likely to only cut 0.50% in 2025 and may not cut until May or June. Liz Truss 2022 Or James Callaghan 1976? Is this the first Pound crisis? The GBP has experienced many "sterling crises” in the past. For example, Black Wednesday from 1992 and after Brexit in 2016. However, there have been similar crises in the past which are very similar to the current situation. For example, the Liz Truss Budget from 2022 which saw the GBP decline more than 23%. During the Sterling Crisis of 1976 the GBPUSD fell from 2.0231 to 1.5669. Both sterling crises were due to the budget, inflation and rising bond yields. Today’s issues for the GBP and UK are very similar, however, the performance of the GBP will depend on if the new SI contributions triggers lower economic activity, inflation and if the Federal Reserve indeed avoids cutting interest rates in the near future. If inflation rises it will dampen consumer demand and the Bank of England will be forced to pause any rate adjustments. As a result, the economy may contract or stall further pressuring the GBP. However, this cannot yet be certain. KPMG experts anticipate accelerated economic growth this year, supported by monetary policy and increased government spending. They project GDP to rise to 1.7%, more than doubling last year’s 0.8%. This growth, according to their estimates, will be driven by a recovery in consumer spending, expected to increase by 1.8% compared to 1.0% last year. In addition to this, if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly opts for more frequent rate cuts, the GBP and EUR are likely to benefit. When monitoring the price movement and patterns which can be seen in the exchange rate, the decline looks similar to the price movement seen in 2022, during the Truss reign. The price has now fallen below the support level from April 2024. The next support levels can be seen at 1.20391 and 1.17992. Technical analysis for the GBP can also be viewed in HFM’s latest Live Trading Session. Key Takeaways: The Great British Pound is the worst performing currency of the year so far, having declined by more than 2.00%. A key reason for the GBP’s decline is the latest labor budget, which is driving a selloff in UK bonds. UK 30-year bond yields are at their highest since 1998, while 10-year yields have reached levels last seen during the 2008 banking crisis. Investors reduce exposure to the GBP as the US edges closer to a new president and pro-Dollar supportive measures. The UK labour government will not reconsider higher taxes but may be forced to reduce public spending. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
Already made a new all times higher after halving and let see what it will be doing next. -
When we execute any trade, we have to pay commissions or spreads that impact our trading by leaving the profits in negative initially.
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I also can't see that either, maybe a repost can help viewing that image again..
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Myfxbook can also be a good source of showcasing traders' skills and performance over the time in my opinion.
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