The Not-So-Magic Trading Formula

[TheNegotiator 13]

Trading is a maze of different approaches, possibilities, choices and outcomes. From money management to trading psychology, the information we must process to form coherent trading methods and apply them effectively to the markets may as well be endless. This is the very reason why trading can at times be so difficult. “A series of meaningful choices”- a quote borrowed from somewhere else, I believe sums up how we strive to succeed in trading and life in general. Yet when presented with too much information and too many possible routes, how is it possible to make these “meaningful choices” (and good) on a consistent basis? I believe it’s very hard. So my approach is to distill trading into as simple objectives as reasonably possible and then look for, formulate, assess and apply methods which fulfill these objectives in a way which I can make work.

 

So what is my “Not-So-Magic Trading Formula” I hear you ask. Well let me first make it clear that this is not some trading secrets revelation-type thread. They are ten-a-penny or a-dime-a-dozen on the net. They don’t truly exist. They never actually deliver. This is the real “holy grail” so think hard before you again dismiss the wisdom as something you can’t use to get that perfect entry time and time again. What I want to say is that there are basic areas you must work on in a structured and ordered way to enable you to trade by a full and comprehensive plan. I know this is something many do not do and so it’s important to start simply. To ensure you are able to make a “series of meaningful choices” you must cover in your plan:-

 

Strategy- What are you trying to capitalize on specifically? How much risk is potentially associated with your plan? Typically, how often do trade opportunities show up and how frequently are they successful?

 

Market assessment- What is the market doing at the moment? If your strategy is a bracket strategy, it’s probably not going to work very well when the market is trending. How exactly do you define specific market conditions?

 

Trade management- Do you have rules to exit trades early? Do you have fixed or variable profit targets? Do you fully understand that in spite of having done all your research and worked out a great plan, any individual trade can look as good as anything and yet other participants ready to act can end up disagreeing on that specific trade and just because that trade doesn’t work, does mean that the strategy is rubbish?

I don’t want to keep going, I just wanted to illustrate the fundamental constituents to trading so that you can decide for yourself what exactly is important to your trading and how the vast amount of information out there relates to your plan. Then maybe, just maybe you will be able to make that “series of meaningful choices”.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Quite

Would you mind if i nominate this post for room 101 on the basis that it is no different to the syndicated articles you yourself nominated? Just my own neutral objective opinion of course.Wouldn't this post be better placed in the beginners forum?

If nobody else posts on your room 101 thread do my nominations win?

 

Excuse me mitsubishi? Bad day?

[koyasan 10]

I don’t want to keep going,

 

 

Please do, I want to hear the specifics. I'm sure that you are not just full of regurgitated bland statements about the nature of trading.

[TheNegotiator 13]

My intention is to illustrate that there is so much to consider in trading, that without a set of well considered core objectives, each and every choice you make is going to be much more difficult to make and then to follow. If you really know what you are trying to do, you will be less likely to be bogged down by the vast amount of information out there and prosper far more.

 

Perhaps it's something akin to moral values and principles. If you have a strong set, then no matter how many obstacles you may come accross, you are likely to be better equiped to tackle them as they come.

 

For me, there is so much information out there through authors, coaches, media and so on. There is crap out there, but there is also good stuff or at least stuff that's not bad, but it's dismissed nevertheless due to the individual not being able to make it work for them. The key for me is that the people who do make ideas work who are genuine, have this underlying organisation of principles of what they are trying to achieve. In not conveying this, the vital part of the equation is missed. The specifics of the strategies are just the manifestations of driven, determined and skilled traders.

[thnickster 10]

Indicators,, no indicators..ticks, minutes..Stops? get rid of emotion..What is an intra day trader to do? I have a friend who has eighteen indicators on a chart..about six Ma'S..Man..when they cross look out! I expect I'll get some snide remarks, but here's my offering..the way I trade ES (ESU2), Eur (EU2), RLM-MU2 (Russell). This is the Global Zen platform (about which I have certain entry compaints..but all in all a great platform and free.) way of naming the products. And there is also ZB, etc. Anyway..I use a ten minute chart, one stochastic indicator with my own inputs which tell me trend direction, overbought/oversold and when trend change is confirmed. Also use one MA and one EMA. That's it for indicators. I don't trade crosses of oscillators, use bollingers, or any fancy stuff. Simpler the better in my opinion. I have two trades and they both involve breaking what I call shelves. Shelves are a little different than mathematically setup pivots..but a lot of times they coincide with them. A shelf is where traders have repeatedly reversed course (yes, a pivot point..ok!) But I set up those areas by backing up the chart at first open and finding them by eye..then putting in a horizontal line at all of them hit more than once. To get to the point..when these shelves are broken or bounced from..an opportunity for a trade arises. Then I use 2nd candle entries. I normally trade short, but any break of a 2nd shelf down or up usually makes a big trend trade. It's that second one that creates monsters..and why not? It says that support or resistance be damned..we are going down folks ( or up) and the ride is strong.

 

N

[koyasan 10]

I think I know what you are getting at. My life experience and education has basically given me the ability to learn, the structure to acquire and apply new skills, the methodology to research and extract relevant knowledge. Add to that mix a determination to succeed, adequate financial capital and a clear objective to make a profit and you think I have every chance of becoming a successful trader? It's possible , if of course I don't blow my account in trying or spend it all on useless 'education'.

 

Let's say that becoming a trader is not the same as becoming a brain surgeon...if it requires the same amount of skill/learning I would quit right now. In my lifetime I have trained/worked as a teacher and as a psychotherapist so let's assume becoming a trader is no more or less a challenge. Here is the difficulty......where do I go from here to learn my new profession? Imagine asking a student who wants to become a teacher to wade through chat forums, study from home, read a mountain of books full of contradictions or sign up to some Guru who wants you to travel half way round the world to learn the secret in one weekend. Alternatively you are told that there is no 'one way' to become a teacher but you have to see what fits with your personality. Imagine after years of floundering around in self education (assuming he has'nt already given up) this trainee teacher is finally put in front of a real class of students?

 

Yes, you need organisational skills, core principles or whatever but what is lacking is a recognised proven program where I can learn how to become a trader (I can just hear the testimonials/reccommendations to follow). Of course there are loads of fancy titled virtual reality 'Trading Academies' etc .with about as much credibility as the hundreds of Learning English as Second Language schools here in Australia. Of course it is still possible to become a successful trader but because of the lack of credible external structure most (irrespective of existence of core attributes) will never make it through the expensive and inefficient process of self education.

 

As a footnote, I am a full time trader and I am still (and probably for ever) in the process of becoming more successful but I would never reccommend anyone to learn the way I did. If I had to do it again maybe I would hope for a face to face apprenticeship or mentoring program from a trader who would first allow my accountant to do due diligence on his/her trading accounts.

 

Let's say a person has made the 'meaningful choice' to become a trader , what next would you suggest?

[gosu 10]

* * *

Let's say a person has made the 'meaningful choice' to become a trader , what next would you suggest?

 

What is there to suggest? Just don't get in his way.

[koyasan 10]

What is there to suggest? Just don't get in his way.

 

Is 'don't get in his way' not a suggestion that the best way to learn is for the wannabe trader to figur it out for himself ? I'm simply saying that self education is expensive and inefficient and why does every wannabe trader have to reinvent the wheel? Is there nothing that those of us who have tasted success and failure discovered that is worth suggesting? Is trading the only profession in the world where every new trader has to work it out for himself?

[gosu 10]

Is 'don't get in his way' not a suggestion that the best way to learn is for the wannabe trader to figur it out for himself ? I'm simply saying that self education is expensive and inefficient and why does every wannabe trader have to reinvent the wheel? Is there nothing that those of us who have tasted success and failure discovered that is worth suggesting? Is trading the only profession in the world where every new trader has to work it out for himself?

 

No, it does not mean the best way to learn is for the person to figure it out for himself. It means mere suggestions are not worth much and may even be misinterpreted and therefore worse than not suggesting anything at all. I have stated more than once previously what I consider the ideal conditions for transference and won't bother to repeat them here.

 

In any case, there's nothing wrong with moving on if a person can't figure out how to trade for himself. I think the vast, vast majority of people struggling and searching for answers are better off moving on to something for which they are better suited.

[fast 10]

Trade managementDo you fully understand that in spite of having done all your research and worked out a great plan, any individual trade can look as good as anything and yet other participants ready to act can end up disagreeing on that specific trade and just because that trade doesn’t work, does mean that the strategy is rubbish?

 

You've touched upon an excellent issue that frequently leads traders astray. Not every trade, even in the best of plans, will result in a win. In fact, it's not uncommon for very good plans to yield a string of losses from time to time. The skilled trader will recognize this and remain disciplined and stick to his or her rules and manage his or her risk like a master. The amateur will quickly lose confidence in the plan and either start trading unwisely or start looking for additional indicators or plans in search of something better.

 

Success is not solely a function of having a good plan. Of course, without a good plan, any significant long term success won't be attained, so having a good plan is a necessary condition for consistent profitability over the long haul. Still, most people, even with a good plan won't make it work, and the main reason for that is most often because traders don't actually trade their plan. They think they do sometimes, but more often than not, they're fudging (or bending) their very own rules when trading on the right hard edge of the screen. There are a variety of issues, mistakes, or shouldn't have's that pave the way for trading failure. Regardless of the reason, confidence wanes and soon after, they're back on the look out for something that'll help them find the very thing they have--a good plan that works.

 

New traders will most often find themselves in a serious dilemma, and that is in not knowing whether or not the problem is their plan or them or perhaps both. That's why it's so very important to do two things: 1) they must gain strong confidence in their plan. One very common way to do this is to paper trade. Once it's been established that the plan is a good workable plan, then 2) they must learn the art of losing confidence in themselves. That didn't sound good did it? What I mean by that is although it's okay to have confidence in their ability to properly implement their plan, what they must lose confidence in is their ability to predict the market. Getting lucky or having a run of good luck in their educated guesses can seriously undermine their plan, and what's called for is a very high level of confidence not in themselves to predict the price action of the next few price bars but instead that their plan will work such it'll lead to consistent profitability. If anyone thinks I'm wrong, all they have to do is religiously record their thoughts about their trades before pulling the trigger.

 

Putting together a great plan can be quite challenging, for it requires taking into account a lot of separate elements, and the truth is, and just like you say, there's quite an extensive number of possibilities. There's still quite a lot I don't know, but I'm well educated on what pertains to me, and what I've found to be most helpful in my trading isn't so much knowing what to do but what not to do. I'm a short-term trader, but I'm seldom in the market. I’m in and back out waiting on the sidelines quite often. I'm always on the look out for good reasons to stay out, for I only want to be in during those times when everything (or most everything) that pertains to my plan comes together at once.

[koyasan 10]

No, it does not mean the best way to learn is for the person to figure it out for himself. It means mere suggestions are not worth much and may even be misinterpreted and therefore worse than not suggesting anything at all. I have stated more than once previously what I consider the ideal conditions for transference and won't bother to repeat them here.

 

In any case, there's nothing wrong with moving on if a person can't figure out how to trade for himself. I think the vast, vast majority of people struggling and searching for answers are better off moving on to something for which they are better suited.

 

I think it is still useful to offer suggestions (if asked) on how to tackle the task of becoming a trader, if only to share what we know from our own experience. Not the same as offering suggestions on how to trade which I would be reluctant to do.

 

Totally agree with your second point that sometimes the best thing is to move on to something else...the 'positive attitude' mentality which never gives up can be delusional.

[SIUYA 11]

If to use another "profession" as an example.

Artist.....(and yes the end result may be different, but lets assume success in trading is a PL and success in the art world is recognition)

 

you can learn all you want as an artist about the history, background, ideas and philosophy, techniques and styles - but its very hard to teach the creative process.

 

You only need to read a few market wizards books to realise how many varying ways there are to do this, and how unless you are completely systemised (and even this has a creative process) there is a lot of "feel"

 

Yet, if there are a few recurring themes that do come up over and over again then they are not that hard to learn, understand and do....they are repeated in every list of things a trader must do.....and yet its too often not done.....how many really have a plan, a detailed one, how many develop and work at habits, recording journals, experimenting and working out what works for them. My guess is a small percentage.

As for technique - buy button, sell button......not that difficult.

 

Koyasan...."Yes, you need organisational skills, core principles or whatever but what is lacking is a recognised proven program where I can learn how to become a trader"

 

A course will not cover everything. They exist already, in various forms. Its a simple profession. The barriers to entry are small, the processes simple. (expansion through various CFA exams etc; is different, but these wont help you trade)

 

The magic formula is in the doing Doing more of the the things that work, and less of those that dont, and maybe unfortunately while many of us might be the arts and crafts home artists, very few will be able to apprenticeship with great artists, and even fewer will be on the cover of artist digest themselves.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Of course the issue for a new trader is going to be that how can they make informed choices in something that they really don't have much or any experience in. However, there are basics and fundamentals which really can be picked up very quickly which do make a big difference. Are you looking at breakouts or brackets for example? How big should the maximum size of a losing trade be relative to your account. Much of trading is common sense, discipline and courage/conviction. If you don't have any of that before you first look at a chart then you don't have a cat in hells chance of making it. Even so, I agree that a new but sensible trader will not have the experience to know where to seek knowledge. Unfortunately for traders, unlike standard education learning to trade is not a mandatory task, so there aren't trading schools as such where you can learn from. Not to say that standard schools are places where you will receive a good education, just that there should be a minimum level to which they are required to meet. Not that they always do either. How to learn to trade other than by books and self-education and sheer will/determination/practise is usually going to be from a mentor. Not some guy on the net who offers mentoring services. But a a successful trader in their own right who is willing to pass on their knowledge and skills. This is something that needs really imho to happen in a company- fund/bank/arcade. This way you'll see all of what they do. Not all great traders are great teachers. That being said, you could go to a firm, learn off a great trader who's a great teacher, market conditions change and then you realise that their strategy was really only going to last for a short while at which point you are back to square one. Trading is not like most other endeavours.

[koyasan 10]

Interesting that the Turtle Trader experiment is being run again based in the UK (The New Turtle Traders). The organisers (Mike Baghdady and Training Traders) "believe that trading is a teachable and trainable skill" through a hands on mentoring approach. Whatever we might believe about trading as being akin to an art form there our others who break it down into a pure skills set which if taught properly will result in making consistent profits. Maybe the real benefit of mentoring is not the methodology (which we can all understand) but the confidence which comes from working alongside a trader who knows what he is doing. Gaining that confidence on ones own is often a longer process.

 

Basically I am self taught but looking back I believe that a mentoring program would have been more efficient both in time and money though I accept the point made by SIUYA that opportunities for apprenticeship are scarce. If I had the opportunity to be properly mentored I might not be a better Trader than I am now but I certainly would have got to where I am now a lot quicker.

[SIUYA 11]

Interesting that the Turtle Trader experiment is being run again based in the UK (The New Turtle Traders). The organisers (Mike Baghdady and Training Traders) "believe that trading is a teachable and trainable skill" through a hands on mentoring approach.

 

I am not really aware of Mr Baghdady, but i do believe there is a bit of controversy around him. Given that the apprenticeship was meant to finish at the end of 2011.....how did it go? My guess is the unsuccessful applicants not accepted where asked (ahem offered) to sign up for training courses.

 

I Whatever we might believe about trading as being akin to an art form there our others who break it down into a pure skills set which if taught properly will result in making consistent profits. Maybe the real benefit of mentoring is not the methodology (which we can all understand) but the confidence which comes from working alongside a trader who knows what he is doing. Gaining that confidence on ones own is often a longer process.

 

Basically I am self taught but looking back I believe that a mentoring program would have been more efficient both in time and money though I accept the point made by SIUYA that opportunities for apprenticeship are scarce. If I had the opportunity to be properly mentored I might not be a better Trader than I am now but I certainly would have got to where I am now a lot quicker.

 

Yes....you are quite correct, having a mentor would certainly speed things along, however having a poor mentor, one who does not really trade, (without telling you so), or one who trades a very different style can actually set you back a long way - they might instill poor habits, styles or other such issues if its not to your personality.....its can then be harmful.

Just food for thought.

 

and dont worry - in my case I started trading early, and I was thrown into the bear pit with virtually the only training i did i did myself.

I was watching the old green reuters screen and paper trading the futures markets - all based on what i had read in the first market wizards books.....at the same time, i was punching in tickets for some options traders, and reading Natenberg on options (that gets the head spinning) - one guys left, and they said - you seem to be interested and know what you are doing, give it a go. (Luckily i was confident, and took things slow, otherwise its easy to blow up quick, and I had an edge of being an option market maker)

I can tell you at the end of a year of doing it full time, i had over 500 a4 pages of notes, thoughts ideas etc;. and i still did not know sh.t This also involved sitting and watching a lot of others guys of various styles doing it (maybe I was slow, maybe i had too much info going on)

Point is it really is not until you find your own way, as many have testified - its when the light goes on for you that it really starts to work.

Edited June 25, 2012 by SIUYA

[Martinigue 10]

Success is not solely a function of having a good plan. Of course, without a good plan, any significant long term success won't be attained, so having a good plan is a necessary condition for consistent profitability over the long haul. Still, most people, even with a good plan won't make it work, and the main reason for that is most often because traders don't actually trade their plan.

 

Ok, a "good plan", four times in a row.:-) So why don't you elaborate a bit more on that; I mean, how would you instruct an apprentice trader to tell a good plan from a bad one? That is what most of those self-proclaimed gurus and experts fail to deliver (no wonder they do) and yet even the fresh novice has the notion that a sort of a plan definitely IS needed. Then the 'guru' comes in and makes money selling utter crap, but how is the novice trader to recognize it actually is a crap?

 

I speak from my own experience that assessing one's plan and gaining confidence at that is one of the most overlooked aspects of trading and we should touch on that topic more thoroughly.

[koyasan 10]

I'll answer according to my own experience:

Still, most people, even with a good plan won't make it work, and the main reason for that is most often because traders don't actually trade their plan.

At one time I did not trade my plan because I did not believe in it and had no confidence in it though at the time I would not admit that. Unfortunately I started trading during the late 1990's when the only plan was to pick anything and go long so I had really bad habits confusing success with luck.

 

 

how would you instruct an apprentice trader to tell a good plan from a bad one?

It has to be profitable with acceptable drawdown (my personal max tolerance is 20%, that's not individual trade tolerance).It has to be robust (minimal curve fitting) in all conditions showing a smooth equity curve and to execute requires minimum amount of discretion (if any). If it can be coded then backtest in all conditions. (you need a good backtesting system that can test for drawdown,risk/reward ratio,profit/loss,win ratio, etc). If it can't be automatically backtested then you have to manually pour over the charts (great learning experience).

 

assessing one's plan and gaining confidence at that is one of the most overlooked aspects of trading and we should touch on that topic more thoroughly.

My confidence comes from backtesting a plan and then roadtesting with real money (low leverage test account) before moving on to multiple contracts. I use a cash forex account for testing and trade Forex Futures to make a living. In the end there is no substitute for the confidence that comes from designing my own plan and seeing it work in real market conditions.

[fast 10]

Success is not solely a function of having a good plan. Of course, without a good plan, any significant long term success won't be attained, so having a good plan is a necessary condition for consistent profitability over the long haul. Still, most people, even with a good plan won't make it work, and the main reason for that is most often because traders don't actually trade their plan.

 

Ok, a "good plan", four times in a row.:-) So why don't you elaborate a bit more on that; I mean, how would you instruct an apprentice trader to tell a good plan from a bad one? That is what most of those self-proclaimed gurus and experts fail to deliver (no wonder they do) and yet even the fresh novice has the notion that a sort of a plan definitely IS needed. Then the 'guru' comes in and makes money selling utter crap, but how is the novice trader to recognize it actually is a crap?

 

I speak from my own experience that assessing one's plan and gaining confidence at that is one of the most overlooked aspects of trading and we should touch on that topic more thoroughly.

 

I hope my repetitive use of the two-worded term "good plan" wasn't too terribly distractive. My point was that traders often unwittingly disregard good plans without even knowing that they are, then subsequently head off in search of something else--be it another plan or perhaps a better indicator.

 

However, you raise a couple very good questions: 1) What's a good plan (?) and 2) how do we discern good plans from those that are not (?). Wow, you ask tough questions.

 

In my opinion, a good plan would usually be one with a comprehensive scope that not only addresses the many issues a trader will face in practice while implementing the plan, but it should also explain the role that underlying market forces play in the methodology. In other words, a plan that explains the what but not the why doesn't share the quality trait that I'd expect in a good solid workable plan.

 

Seldom do traders prosper merely because they have a good plan. In fact, I don't know two successful traders that use identical plans. They prosper when they learn to only veer from good plans when they should, and if you don't know why you're doing what you're doing when you're told to do what you're told, then because you haven't learned the why but only the what, you're not going to be able to adequately adapt to the changes in the marketplace.

 

The kind of market forces that come to mind are the basic market cycles. The market is very cyclical in nature. For instance, and to just name a few, there's the trending to non-trending (or consolidation) cycle. There's the high volatility to low volatility cycle. There's the cycle of time—e.g. how much time passes during a retrace is less than the time that passes during an impulse move in an uptrend. Also, there's a cycle (or common alternation) between retracements and complex retracements. There’s more, but the point is that there is a constantly changing rhythm to the core cycles in the market, and a plan that harnesses those cycles as the basis of a methodology would be (to me) a plan well worth our attention.

 

There are other traits I'd expect to see in a good plan. One is simplicity. What all goes into a plan may have had very complex beginnings, but if a trade that takes twenty minutes to analyze isn't going to be very advantageous for a day trader viewing a 200 tick chart.

 

There are several traits we could possibly list that would guide us in our endeavor to analyze a plan to see if possibly it’s good, but because of the vast number of potential plans, there will be many plans that are good overall but not quite up to par in every area, so it would probably be unwise to immediately eliminate a plan as a good plan without further analysis. For instance, a plan that fails to utilize filters to keep a good setup from triggering isn’t necessarily going to be a bad plan.

 

The new trader isn't going to be able to recognize a good plan at first sight, for a new trader hasn't had enough of exposure to weed out the uninformed from the informed. They're going to have to do a lot of due diligence and walk around the block a few times. How does one tell a good philosophy professor from one that's not if one is oblivious to the subtle nuances in philosophy? It takes time. It takes experience. It takes wading through the field of the misguided.

[JMB 10]

Most traders in the beginning (myself included) jump at strategy first and believe that thats the only way as thats what's being told and sold everywhere. I believe one realy starts to learn to trade once you take a step back and look at the market for what it really is.

Trading is a plan in its whole and therefore has to be planned out from minute to minute from the moment you wake up untill the market (that you trade) closes. For example, a daytrading scalping strategy might work well for someone in the morning hours of that particular market traded You would not take a scalping strategy and trade it in the afternoon when certain markets are closed.

One question that i ask myself before i enter a trade is "would a big wallstreet firm, bank, hedge fund or institution get in here?" As i firmly believe they are the ones that have the actual account size to make price move from one level to another level and we "the small retail dudes" facilitate those moves, i think that that is the first place to start. No need for indicators here.

"the not-so-magic-trading formula, i like that title , thats exactly how trading should be. I wish i thought this way 7 years ago :doh:

[SIUYA 11]

Most traders in the beginning (myself included) jump at strategy first and believe that thats the only way as thats what's being told and sold everywhere. I believe one realy starts to learn to trade once you take a step back and look at the market for what it really is.

Trading is a plan in its whole and therefore has to be planned out from minute to minute from the moment you wake up untill the market (that you trade) closes. For example, a daytrading scalping strategy might work well for someone in the morning hours of that particular market traded You would not take a scalping strategy and trade it in the afternoon when certain markets are closed.

One question that i ask myself before i enter a trade is "would a big wallstreet firm, bank, hedge fund or institution get in here?" As i firmly believe they are the ones that have the actual account size to make price move from one level to another level and we "the small retail dudes" facilitate those moves, i think that that is the first place to start. No need for indicators here.

"the not-so-magic-trading formula, i like that title , thats exactly how trading should be. I wish i thought this way 7 years ago :doh:

 

yes...part of a trading plan is a philosophy of how a market works, why it does what it does, how it moves, and how you can extract profits from that - if you dont have these things in your mind, then how do you know what strategy and tactics to use and when.

[Obsidian 10]

finding (or creating) a good plan requires a lot of patience and experience. Trading is like cooking...you can learn the basics from books or teachers. however you have to practice and see the outcome...knowledge makes you successful when combined with experience..you should do your homework to improve yourself