Eur/usd

[Mysticforex 13]

I think anyplace is a decent place to get in short dependent on your risk tolerance. Throw away the charts. The euro is heading lower.

 

Sub 1.100. I don't know when, or for sure. There is no way to fix the mess in the short run

 

Sort of like 5th ave in NYC . . . One Way, Downtown.

[Mysticforex 13]

Europe has an Angel ! her name is Merkel. Spain has won the Euro Cup !

Everyone's elated.

I would buy above the TL on this 5 min chart... to the previous resistance at the Red horizontal line. Stp below recent low at the time.

[macplauz 10]

 

On Friday the Euro moved up to the 61.80 % fib extension (A-B at C). Today, market bounced back from this resistance level. The monthly pivot and daily 20 SMA (purple line) currently act as support. The low of January at 1.2624 (orange line) and the low of August 2010 at 1.2588 (purple line) are key levels.

 

 

On the 4-hour chart we see that the Euro respected the orange line and the 4-hour 10-SMA (red line). However, after the close of the bearish 4-hour candle at 12 a.m. (red circle-left) (Timing setup) the Euro fell below the orange line/ 10 SMA.

 

 

On the 1 hour chart we see that the 12 a.m. hourly candle (A) respected the daily pivot at 1.2598. The 1 p.m. candle penetrated the pivot point and respected the weekly pivot at 1.2586 and the purple line (August 2010 low) but closed above the daily pivot on the hourly chart. However, the 3 p.m. hourly candle resumed the down trend and penetrated the already touched/ respected support levels (second test). The Euro found support at the monthly pivot point.

The price zone of the circled consolidation (blue) from Friday also provided some temporary support.

 

 

On the 5 min chart we had a kind of inverted Head and Shoulder in the Asian session with the green neckline and a prolonged left shoulder at the support level of the low of January (orange line). At 11 a.m. we had a typical 3-wave consolidation at the support level (orange line) before the Euro resumed its downtrend. The duration of the consolidation is the same like the duration of the prior 5-min down swing. Most of the circled candles on the 5 min chart show how price bounced at support/ resistance.

 

Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market

[macplauz 10]

Europe has an Angel ! her name is Merkel. Spain has won the Euro Cup !

Everyone's elated.

I would buy above the TL on this 5 min chart... to the previous resistance at the Red horizontal line. Stp below recent low at the time.

 

I think that the blue trendline is not very important but good luck anyway.

 

We are currently at the monthly pivot point, daily 20 SMA and August 2010 low. I dont think that much will happen today anymore. If EUR/USD is able to hold the current support these days (possible bull flag on daily) then we could have some follow through of fridays strong candle. If market is falling below the support level then more downside is likely (possible bear flag on the hourly/4 hour chart, consolidation at support (respecting) before resuming the down trend).

[Obsidian 10]

eur/usd just does not want to go down:roll eyes:

getting help from crosses as well I guess...eur/gbp is holding above 0.8000, eur/jpy is above 100

[macplauz 10]

EUR/USD Market Recap 03.07.12

 

 

Today, the Euro had a relatively quite session. On the daily chart we see that the support level around the monthly pivot at 1.2568, the low of August 2010 at 1.2588 (purple line) and the 20 SMA (purple) held the market so far.

 

 

The circled areas on the hourly chart show how price bounced from support/ resistance.

On the hourly chart we see that the Euro moved up to the daily pivot at 1.2611 at 7 a.m. GMT but market could not breach the resistance and moved lower from there. The Euro penetrated the monthly pivot and cleared some stops below it and yesterday's low but the Euro closed above this key resistance level on the hourly chart (green circle). After the clearing of the stops and the rejection of prices (close above the monthly pivot on the hourly and higher low on the 5 min chart) market moved to the other side of the consolidation (1.2568 - 1.2614) to test it. The Euro breached the pivot point and the recent high at 1.2614 (stop clearing) but the key level at 1.2624 (orange line- January low) provided strong resistance and the Euro bounced back.

The fake breakouts (stop clearing) seem to be typical in a quite session when everyone is waiting for major news and thus traders are lacking commitment/ low participation.

 

 

On the 5 min chart (above) we see how price bounced from support/resistance (blue circles) and the formation of consolidations/bull/bear flags (red circles) as well as some Fibonacci extensions (100 % and 161 %).

The price zones of the consolidations (red circle) provided some temporary support/ resistance as the market moved back into these zones.

At 9 a.m. market formed an inverted Head & Shoulder at the purple line (August low 2010). During the pattern market did not confirm the break of the purple line (no close of the succeeding candles below the range of the 9:30 a.m. breakout candle on the 5 min chart). Market breached the brown neckline and moved up to the H&S price target (100 % of the larger swing in the H&S-(left shoulder to head)-moved to the break of the neckline). Between 1 and 3 p.m. the Euro breached the monthly pivot but the Euro formed a higher low and closed above the monthly pivot on the hourly chart (rejection of the breakout). From there, the Euro moved up to test the other side of the consolidation range and market found temporary resistance at the weekly pivot/ 161 % fib extension at 3 p.m. and the daily pivot at about 4 p.m.. The chance of a breach of the daily pivot increased due to the bull flag, the rising 10 SMA, the prior test at 7 a.m. (second test now) and particularly the fact that the prior 4-hour candle closing at 4 p.m. already touched (respected) the daily pivot so that this resistance level got weaker with the beginning of the new 4-hour candle (Timing setup).

 

Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market

[macplauz 10]

EUR/USD Market Recap 09.07.12

 

 

On Friday, the Euro closed at the low of June 1st (pink line) after market slightly penetrated this key level during the day. Today, market gapped slightly below Friday's low but initially reversed, closed the gap and consolidated around the pink line most of the day. On the 5 min chart we can see that the daily low of June 1st (pink line) acted as support/resistance. The breakout candle at 3 p.m. (penetrating the pink line) did not get confirmed and market reversed to the upside after hitting the price zone of the consolidation between 9 - 10 a.m. GMT. The main resistance to the upside was the daily pivot point. The Euro formed a bull flag/typical 3-wave-consolidation (red circle) before penetrating the daily pivot for the third time (level already weaken) whereby market breached this level (no confirmation) and triggered most of the stops above the daily pivot. The Euro is currently consolidation at the daily pivot.

 

The positioning of the stops above a high/low or strinking levels is easy to anticipate and market often tends to trigger these stops. Very often these levels get penetrated and stops/limit orders get triggered but market reversed (no confirmed breakout-only stop fishing).

 

Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market

[macplauz 10]

Hello,

 

We might see the setup for an ending diagonal/wedge on the 4-hour chart.

I made a possible EW-count but the main important wave structure is the ending diagonal (red circle 1-5).

 

Lets wait and see...

 

 

 

Technical Chart Analysis (EUR/USD) Euro to US Dollar - Forex market

[forexpic 10]

Euro stay high and strong the last three days but my forex analysis show that we must see deep correction down and the "bears" must come tommorrow and the next week

[ForexTraderX 10]

well, I'm going to look to get long between 1.2510, and 1.2490 if we can pull back to that price range, and I see price action showing signs of the retracement being done, and a continued move up. In particular, any nice pinbars or range expansion bullish candles on a 15 minute, 30 min, or 1hr chart once price hits that range.

 

If other risk markets are generally holding up well during this coming london/US trading session, I may look to enter if price hits 1.2510... however, if price is moving down with conviction, particularly if we have hit 1.2620 or higher in price BEFORE we retest the 1.2510 level... I will wait for price to hit the bottom of my "zone of interest"...closer to the lows around 1.2490-1.2480.

 

However, I will have a long order at around 1.2460ish, with about a 30ish pip stop, and a 30 pip 1st target, 75 pip 2nd target, and i'll keep that order there until the week is finished.

 

Basically, 2 areas I like, the lower one I want a long order at no matter what... the higher one, i'll wait to see what other markets are doing, how price enters that zone, whether we break trendlines or not... etc. It will be situational, most importantly it will depend on how price reacts if it reaches 1.2510-1.2490 during the london or U.S. session, but before it has hit 1.2620.

[Obsidian 10]

eur/usd sitting on support. i don't expect a surprise move today, but close below 1.2480 would take us to 1.2420. i think it would be better to leave this pair alone before Ben speaks

[Obsidian 10]

they wont just let it drop before the ECB meeting...what EU does is far more important than what the Fed does...

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, we just hit 1.2700 a few minuts ago... and I'm tempted, but gonna hold off only due to the very positive sentiment for risk at the moment... but I think a short here with about a 25 pip stop,, and a 30-50 pip target would probably do just fine. I think this is nearing the high for today anyway... guess we'll just have to wait and see.

 

I will say this however... if i'm watching this a while longer, and see some strong volume correlate to pinbars and bearish reversal candles.... I probably will take a quick short.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, price does indeed look like it's stalling out and rolling over on the EUR/USD... so i took a very small short position at 2708... 30ish stop, similar target... we'll see.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Whoops! just remembered it is NFP day... that completely slipped my mind. Closed out the trade for a 6 pip loss. not going to hold such a position through this news announcement.

 

That being said... if we could get anywhere towards 1.2740 or higher, I will be looking for a short trade. I'll be placing an order for a short at 1.2748 about 5 minutes after the NFP release because want a short at that price regardless of what PA does, as long as it's not driven into that price within the first few minutes after the NFP release... and will probably take a 30ish pip stop, 30-60 pip target.

 

Next price up to short abouve that is right around 1.2800-1.2820... and i'd like to get long if we could get back towards yesterdays high.

Edited September 7, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[ForexTraderX 10]

Actually, managed short at 1.2735... hoping for the best now.

[macplauz 10]

Hello,

 

I just wrote an article about forex price manipulation in terms of stop running for example in the EUR/USD.

 

 

If you are interested then you find the article at

 

http://forex-chartanalysis.blogspot....market-is.html

 

 

Feedback is always welcome.

 

Have a good trading day.

[Ammeo 10]

it wud remain bullish and safe to buy if it trades above 1.3287 level...

[ntrader 10]

Euro failed to break above the 1.34 level this week and fall back to 1.3340. A test of 1.3312 support expected for the beggining of the week. It looks tough at the moment a move above 1.34.