Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

I will introduce a new EUR/USD thread. I will frequently post my EUR/USD chart analysis

 

I hope some people will participate and also post their EUR/USD analysis here.

 

Let's share our knowledge!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD Market Recap 08.06.12

 

EUR/USD found resistance at January's low 2012 (orange line) and the 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing (EUR/USD Market Recap 07.06.12). Yesterday's daily candle could not close above the 20 SMA and closed in the price range of the prior daily candle (false breakout). Furthermore, market formed a Doji bar or evening star pattern, which led to a sharp drop in price in today's Asian and European session.

 

 

On the hourly chart we see that the sharp price drop started at 1 a.m. GMT ,right after yesterday's daily doji bar closed. EUR/USD got initially pushed down by the 10 SMA and 20 SMA. The price drop at 1 a.m. triggered the bear flag (blue circle) and market moved to the 100 % fib extension (A-B at C ) and formed the second bear flag (D) at the green trend line and the 100 % fib extension (also 61.80 % fib retracement). In the following, market broke put of the bear flag and resumed it's down trend to the weekly pivot point. (Market respected the resistance in form of a bear, which means that market could not sufficiently bounce back from support-bearish signal). Recently, market respected (touched) the hourly 10 SMA (green circle) at 3 p.m. and broke through it with the next hourly candle. The 4-hour candle closing at 4 p.m. also looks like a doji (support at the weekly pivot).

 

 

On the 5 min chart we see the different bear flags (circled). After EUR/USD broke out of the first bear flag (blue circle) market went to the 161,80 % fib extension (1-2 at 3) where market formed the second bear flag (red circle). EUR/USD broke out of the bear flag and went to the 100 % fib extension (5-6 at 7). Market found support at the weekly pivot (slightly penetrated but no confirmation, stop fishing below the low of June 6th-blue line) where it formed a kind of ending diagonal ((8-impulsive,9-correction,abcde-ending diagonal). The correction high (9-green line) is the initial target after the ending diagonal terminated, which market reached quickly (directional move). Recently, EUR/USD found resistance at the daily S2 (1.2492-not shown), the prior consolidation (red circle) and particularily the 61.80 % fib retracement (5-e-not shown) at 1.2493.

daily-eurusd8.JPG.1db55ec760b7f48e5e484705484f2563.JPG

1h-EurUsd122.JPG.8a4d2ed6f900e0325744dea9cc2dd822.JPG

5min-eurusd25.thumb.JPG.4920c16674d4c1ba11c69879ca58edfa.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD Market Recap 11.06.12

 

Market gapped up to 1.2624, which is the resistance zone of the 61.80 % fib retracement and the low of January 2012 (orange line) (EUR/USD Market Recap 07.06.12). Market moved above this resistance (second test) but could not overcome the monthly pivot point at 1.2661. From there, market bounced back and in the following EUR/USD closed the gap from today. On the 4 hour chart we see that the 4-hour candle closing at 12 a.m. GMT respected (closed at) the weekly pivot. Initially after the 4 hour candle closed market breached the weekly pivot point and EUR/USD formed a typical 3-wave consolidation pattern (5 min chart) below the weekly pivot before market resumed its down trend to close today's gap.

 

On the 1-hour chart we see that EUR/USD also closed at (respected) the daily pivot with the 3 p.m. candle before market initially breached the daily pivot point in the beginning of the next hourly candle.

1h-EurUsd123.JPG.ddb3161446b600a455864f1e7e7b04f9.JPG

4h-eurusd11.JPG.9784aa8131932edc517fe51e2a735a03.JPG

daily-eurusd9.JPG.4b2b6c619f8e26c507e7927f2a16ecbd.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD Market Recap 12.06.12

 

 

In the Asian session, the Euro found support at the weekly S1 and market formed a kind of doji/ pin bar (reversal candle) on the hourly chart (Yesterday's low-blue line). From there, the Euro moved up to the 20 SMA (hourly) where the euro found some resistance (5 a.m.) (1) before market moved above the 20 SMA up to the daily pivot point at 1.2522 (2). The Euro reversed at the daily pivot point and market targeted the recent hourly low at 7 a.m. to clear some stops (3) (no breakout confirmation of the hourly low on 5 min chart) before the euro moved up again and penetrated the daily pivot point (4). However, we see on the 5 min chart (B) that market never confirmed a break of the daily pivot point (no close above the breakout candle). Market rolled over at the daily pivot point and targeted yesterday's daily low. Yesterday's bearish daily candle made a retest of this low very likely (bearish sentiment) and many stop and limit orders are expected to be below yesterday's low. Market cleared these orders and bounced back and closed again at/above the weekly S1 on the hourly chart (first breakout is often a false breakout). On the 5 min chart (below) we also see that the breach of the weekly S1 and yesterday's low did not get confirmed. The 5 min candle at 3:05 p.m. closed at the weekly S1 (respected it) and the following breakout candle penetrated this support level, however, there was no suceeeding candle which closed below the range of the breakout candle. Moreover, market bounced back at the 100 % fib extension from C-D at E.

Today's price action in the European session might be seen as a Head & Shoulder (ABC) with the green line as its neckline (5 min chart). Market formed a nice 3 wave consolidation pattern at the neckline (visible on the 1 min chart-bear flag) just prior to the breakout (D)

 

On the 5 min chart we see that the Euro bounced back after the unconfirmed breach of the weekly S1 and yesterday's low (blue line) (F), moved up to the 20 SMA (3:45 p.m.) where market consolidated before the Euro went up further and formed a bullish consolidation (bull flag). The green neckline seemed to provide some resistance. The bull flag got triggered, supported by the rising 20 SMA on the 5 min chart and market moved up again.

1h-EurUsd124.JPG.673b41976a208f9c7f2751786e06190d.JPG

5min-eurusd26.JPG.a7ed6f3a532d64d37997659a175be6e1.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD Market Recap 13.06.12

 

1h-EurUsd125.JPG.acfce0d4068550ab891d5cced6ecf935.JPG

 

 

Today in the beginning of the European session the Euro moved up to the 100 % fib extension (1-2 at 3) and daily R1 at 1.2548. The Euro struggled with this resistance level although EUR/USD moved up close to the weekly pivot point (1:35 p.m. GMT, 4). However, EUR/USD failed to close above this resistance zone (1.2548) on the hourly basis so that market moved lower (1:35 p.m.) to find some support at the rising hourly 10 SMA (red line-5). From there, the Euro strongly moved up above the prior resistance zone at 1.2548 (second test) and market was able to close above the weekly pivot on the hourly (second test) and 4-hourly basis (candle close at 4 p.m.). The hourly candle (3-4 p.m.) approximately closed at (respected) the 61.80 % retracement and daily R2, which in the following got broken with the beginning of the next hourly candle (4-5 p.m.) and the Euro moved up to the 100 % fib extension at 1.2603 (6).

 

5min-eurusd27.thumb.JPG.7a046c84c96a87526795ae9afbc94577.JPG

 

 

On the 5 min chart we see that the Euro very often reacted at the 61.80 % fib retracement marked with the 0 on the 5 min chart and also at the 100 % fib extension market with the 1 on the 5 min chart (important fibonacci levels). At the beginning of the London trading session at 9 a.m. the Euro made a abc retracement before market moved up to the 100 % fib extension at 1.2554. In the following market formed a typical 3-wave consolidation pattern/ butterfly (circled). After the termination of the consolidation the Euro reached the typical butterfly target (127 % fib extension-1-0 at 0) before EUR/USD reversed and took out the low of the prior consolidation (1.2526), which is also typical for a butterfly pattern. The Euro found support at the 10 SMA on the hourly Chart (2-3 p.m.) and formed a kind of ending diagonal on the 5 min chart (ED). In the following, the Euro strongly moved up to the 100 % fib extension, where market consolidated.

 

Unfortunately,I am not sure how to use larger images

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD Market Recap 14.06.12

 

Yesterday, the Euro found resistance at the 100 % fib extension (1.2603) (4) and bounced back to today's daily pivot point (1.2552) and the 61.80 % fib retracement (6). From there, the Euro form a larger consolidation around the weekly pivot at 1.2564 on the hourly chart. During this consolidation the Euro did not confirm a break below the weekly pivot point on the hourly chart after yesterday's confirmed upward penetration of this level (4 p.m-yesterday) . The recent consolidation pattern at yesterday's high (5) and the low of August 2010 (orange line/weekly chart-last chart) seem to have capped the market to the upside recently (8). Since the break below orange line on Monday the Euro struggled to confirm an upward break through this level again on the hourly chart. However, the 4 p.m. hourly candle confirmed the upward breach of the orange line on the hourly chart after market paused at the 61.80 % fib extension (3-4 at 7). But in general, the price action on the daily chart might be more important in analysing the price behaviour around weekly support/resistance.

 

1h-EurUsd126.JPG.87fda36a5cef6d94e3eb671cd4bd3144.JPG

 

On the 5 min chart (below) we see that the Euro retested the daily pivot point at about 10 a.m. GMT but market could hold at support. The initial breakout candle at 9:55 a.m.did not get confirmed on the 5 min chart. The Euro consolidated around the daily pivot point (B) and moved up again (no confirmed breach of the daily pivot point). The daily pivot and the recent consolidation (B) at this price level held the market again at 1:10 p.m © and the Euro moved up again. At 2:40 p.m. the Euro bounced strongly back from the weekly pivot point and the 61.80 % fib retracement (D) after the Euro formed a higher low (1:10 p.m.) and higher high (1:55 p.m.) on the 5 min chart. The Euro consolidated at the 61.80 % fib extension before market resumed its uptrend and breached the recent high (blue line-stop clearing target) but the Euro found resistance at the 61.80 % fib extension on the 5 min chart (G) (first breakout often false one) and market price closed below the blue line (recent high) on the hourly (4 p.m.). The Euro found some temporarily support at the price level of the prior consolidation (H) and market formed a bear flag before market went lower (not shown).

 

5min-eurusd29.thumb.JPG.312b0aaf3009f3d972acd9472a4dafe4.JPG

 

weekly-EURUSD4.JPG.5fa08db3fe21db84c3eb3303b783aaa7.JPG

 

Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD Market Recap 15.06.12

 

4h-eurusd12.JPG.c1356c0cbb607b2565ac02adb5578cab.JPG

 

1h-EurUsd127.JPG.f6828e05363e2bfa299144cde2ccfb68.JPG

 

On the 4 hour and 1 hour chart we see that the Euro very often closed at the low of January 2012 at 1.2624 (pink line), which coincides with the daily high of the 7th of June and the gap opening on Monday. Particularly on the 4 hour chart we see that every candle today closed at this important level. On the hourly chart we see that the Euro respected the 61.80 % fib extension at 5 a.m. (recent high) and price moved lower from there. On the 1 hour and 5 min chart (below) we see a nice Head & Shoulder formation. At 11:15 a.m. the Euro breached the neckline (brown line) (A) but market could not confirm this breakout (first test). The second break of the neckline occurred at 12:45 p.m. and market moved to the 100 % fib extension (B). EUR/USD breached the daily pivot point, however, the pivot point, the 4-hour 10 SMA and trend line (4-hour chart) supported the market. The Euro managed to close above the neckline on the hourly chart at 2 p.m. after a choppy price between the neckline and the weekly pivot.

 

On the 5 min chart (below) we again see the importance of the pink line and its changing role from resistance to support vice versa. The Euro formed a bull flag on the 5 min chart and in the following closed above the pink line after market already regained the neckline with the hourly close at 2 p.m.. The Euro bounced back from the pink line at 5:25 p.m. (now support) and cleared the stops above the recent high ©. However, market could not close above the recent high on the 5 min chart at the first breakout (only stop fishing) and the Euro fell back again.

 

5min-eurusd30.thumb.JPG.efe5d349fabb134a8fc03f62effe0c7a.JPG

 

Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD Market Recap 18.06.12

 

1h-EurUsd128.thumb.JPG.5328d2b99ff0204fd361134a167fadb8.JPG

 

5min-eurusd31.thumb.JPG.d989b1690c770be869451ca935d9616c.JPG

 

Today, the Euro gapped up to 1.2748 and from there EUR/USD started to move down and completely retraced the gap and the Euro even fell much further.

The 2 a.m hourly candle found support at the 10 SMA (red line) and the Euro started to retrace up to 1.2725 supported by the rising hourly 10 SMA . After the end of the upward retracement the Euro resumed its downtrend and closed today's gap.

The 8 a.m. hourly candle respected (touched) the hourly 20 SMA (purple line) after the Euro consolidated between the 20 SMA and 200 SMA on the 5 min chart, and the Euro initially broke through the 20 SMA with the beginning of the new hourly candle at 9 a.m. (London open-green circle on 5 min chart). The Euro found some temporary support at the pink line (low of January) and formed an abc-retracement up to the monthly pivot point. From there, the Euro bounced back and penetrated the pink line again but market could not confirm the breakout on the 5 min chart . However, the Euro made a hourly close below the daily and particulary weekly pivot point (11 a.m.) and confirmed the break below the daily and weekly pivots on the 5 min chart. The following retracement went up to these pivots and the 20 SMA on the 5 min chart which now all acted as resistance (red circle). EUR/USD bounced back from this resitance, which also coincided with a retest of the gap opening (brown line) and the Euro finally breached the low of January 2012 (pink line). The Euro found some support under the low of Friday (initial target reached = stop clearing-The first breakout is very often not confirmed). Moreover, the orange line highlights the low from August 2010, which acted as support . Market retraced up from there (abc-retracement) but as market resumed its downtrend at 3:30 p.m.the Euro breached the orange line and confirmed the break on the 5 min chart so that the orange line became resistance on the 5 min chart and market's upward correction terminated at this resitance at 5:50 p.m..The daily S2, the 200 hourly SMA , the 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent daily upswing and the 100 % fib extension (1-2 at 3) give some support around 1.2550-1.2565.

 

Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Based on the information you provided in post # 8, do you have an opinion on what will play out today???

 

On my 4 hour chart I have the 50 SMA holding, a Doji ( in the shaded gray area ) and the stoch coming out of oversold ( also in shaded grey area ).

 

So, perhaps a re test of 12700 ?

eu4hr.thumb.gif.7814123b7c68048b30703b298dd64d2a.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Mysticforex said:
Based on the information you provided in post # 8, do you have an opinion on what will play out today???

 

On my 4 hour chart I have the 50 SMA holding, a Doji ( in the shaded gray area ) and the stoch coming out of oversold ( also in shaded grey area ).

 

So, perhaps a re test of 12700 ?

 

 

For me the resistance at 1.2624 (low of January, gap from last week..) is an important resistance. As long as the Euro does not confirm a break above I am bearish, and current price action could be seen as a consolidation after yesterdays strong downward candle. A retest of Yesterday's low (strong bearish candle) is also not unlikely. The recent down swing found support at the 200 SMA on the hourly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Mysticforex said:
Based on the information you provided in post # 8, do you have an opinion on what will play out today???

 

On my 4 hour chart I have the 50 SMA holding, a Doji ( in the shaded gray area ) and the stoch coming out of oversold ( also in shaded grey area ).

 

So, perhaps a re test of 12700 ?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Target hit. 12700.

eu4hr.thumb.gif.c122ef8cbb14036ff3f3ce357586b3ca.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD Market Recap 19.06.12

 

nice call mysticforex.

 

Short version:

Market formed a bull flag at the 1.2624 resistance level and broke through this major level. The upward break through the key resistance level led to a strong bullish momentum

 

1h-EurUsd129.JPG.df9c1a595f23a8b82243470fc82e10cd.JPG

 

Longer version

 

On the 1 hour chart we see the changing role of the key level at 1.2588 (August 2010 low-orange line). Yesterday in the US session the Euro closed below this level at 3 p.m. GMT and in the following the Euro found resistance at the orange line. However, the Euro got supported by the hourly 200 SMA (black line) and the EUR/USD move above the orange line again in today's overnight session. Now, the orange line acted at support (prior resistance becomes support) and the Euro did not close below this level on an hourly basis. EUR/USD penetrated the orange line between 9 a.m. -10 a.m. but market bounced back again from the 200 SMA (yesterday's consolidation also provided some support at this price level) and closed finally above the key support.on the hourly chart. From there, the Euro moved up to the next key level at 1.2624 (pink line-January low). The Euro could not overcome this level for a while, however, EUR/USD also did not significantly bounced back from this resistance. The resistance got further strengthed due to the daily pivot at 1.2629. Market formed a bull flag on the hourly chart and the Euro broke through resistance (pink line) with the beginning of the 2 p.m. hourly candle after market repeatedly slightly penetrated this level during the three hour consolidation (bull flag-eroded resistance over time). Moreover, the bull flag terminated exactly at the 100 % time projection of the prior upswing (A-B at B, 5 min chart below).

After the break of the strong resistance (pink line) market gained strong bullish momentum.

The 2 p.m. hourly candle closed above the weekly pivot, the 3 p.m. hourly candle above the monthly pivot and the 4-hour candle closing at 4 p.m. closed (respected) at the 61.80 % fib retracement and market breached the 61.80 % fib retracement initially after the 4 hour candle closed (red circle on hourly chart).

 

5min-eurusd32.JPG.221ec2a11e248b13e9d6c4538603dd3f.JPG

 

On the 5 min chart we see that the Euro initially moved to the 61.80 % fib extension (A-B at C) after the breach of the pink line. The Euro found some resistance there and bounced back to find support at the rising 10 SMA (red line) on the 5 min chart and the Euro got repeatedly pushed up after touching the rising 10 SMA (strong bullish momentum).

The 5 min chart also highlights the changing role (support/resistance) of the orange line. EUR/USD repeatedly reacted at this level (1.2588).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD Market Recap 20.06.12

 

1h-EurUsd130.JPG.cb0978f65cf6bb64d3c2f7eacf7097e1.JPG

 

The daily high of the 11th of June at 1.2669 is another key level (blue line). Today, the Euro found some support at this level in the Asian and beginning of the European session (hourly chart above). The Euro traded in a tight range prior to the FOMC market release.

 

5min-eurusd33.thumb.JPG.eac47fc85828cb8ecc54fc3540d37aa3.JPG

 

On the 5 min chart (above) we see that market formed a kind of Head & Shoulder pattern (ABCDE). The break of the brown neckline got confirmed with the news release at 5:30 p.m. GMT. Just prior to the news release at 5:25 p.m. the Euro bounced back from the 100 % fib extension from C-D at E and market closed in the range of the preceding 5 min candle. After the news release the Euro (5 min candle-5:30) initially moved down to the H & S target at around 1.2665 (B-D at F - blue circle, F= neckline break), also 161% fib extension C-D at E. From there market bounced back before the Euro resumed its downtrend to the weekly pivot point where the Euro found strong support and moved up again. The Euro found some resistance at the brown neckline (touched-respeced it, red circle) before market finally broke the neckline to the upside with the beginning of the new hourly candle at 6 p.m.. The chance of a temporary continuation of the uptrend and a breach of the high of the 5 p.m. hourly candle got increased due to the 5 p.m. hourly rejection candle (long tail) and the hourly close at the neckline. The 6 p.m. hourly candle breached yesterday's high. The volatile market after the news release led to a clearing of the stops below and above today's "pre-new release" trading session, which is not untypical for a news release (stop fishing targets).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD Market Recap 21.06.12

 

daily-eurusd10.JPG.b92e3b874a6c64c7f8dfedc0d94f2f70.JPG

4h-eurusd13.JPG.9e859915e2dc48c74fdb630f43a612e8.JPG

 

On the daily chart (above) we see that yesterday's daily candle formed a doji and market formed a kind of double Top. The Euro dropped in today's European and US session and currently market penetrates the daily trendline and the Euro is close to the 20 SMA (purple line). On the 4-hour chart (above) we see that the Euro touched (respected) the daily trendline (red) with the closing of the 4-hour candle at 4 p.m.. The Euro initially dropped further with the beginning of the new 4-hour candle starting at 4 p.m. (Timing) and the Euro penetrated the low of the 18th of June (green line).

 

1h-EurUsd131.thumb.JPG.307d29a441716af2420bf60537272705.JPG

 

On the hourly chart (above) we see that the Euro found resistance at the 61.80 % fib retracement (1) yesterday in the US session. Today, the Euro found support at the monthly pivot point in the Asian session (2) and moved up to the 20 SMA (3) where the Euro bounced back. The Euro moved down and penetrated the monthly Pivot point at 8 p.m. whereby the breach of the recent low (grey line, (4)) did not get confirmed on the 5 min chart (stop fishing). From there, market moved up and finally penetrated the daily pivot point at 1.2691 (5), however, the Euro did not confirm the breach on the 5 min chart (no higher close of the succeeding candles above the range of the breakout candle at 12:20 p.m.) and market formed a strong one-hour rejection candle (long tail of the 12 a.m. candle). In the following, the Euro dropped down strongly. The 2 p.m. hourly candle respected (touched) the support level at 1.2624 (pink line-Januarly low, orange circle) and market initially breached this level with the beginning of the 3 p.m. hourly candle. The same pattern occurred at the hourly 200 SMA and the daily trend line (red line). Market touched this support level and immediately after the close of the hourly and 4-hour candle at 4 p.m. (Timing) the Euro breached this support level and resumed its downward trend (black circle).

 

5min-eurusd34.thumb.JPG.88484d4ed40b5fe862b8513cbbf764cf.JPG

 

The 5 min chart (above) shows the failed breakout confirmation at the grey line (A) and the daily pivot point (B). The red circle illustrates typical price behaviour around support and resistance. The 1:35 p.m. candle breached the monthly pivot but could not close below, however, the second breach got confirmed on the 5 min chart from the 2:05 p.m. candle. The Euro moved up again but market could not regain the prior support level (no confirmed close above the monthly pivot). The Euro also found resistance at the decreasing 10 SMA (red line), and the 5 min candle at 2:15 p.m. closed as a doji. The monthly pivot point now acted as resistance and price moved down. The green circle shows the bearish consolidation (bear flag) at the pink line (January low). The Euro breached this level at 3 p.m. initially after the hourly candle closed at this support level. The same price behaviour occurred at 4 p.m.. In a strong bearish or bullish environment market often close at key levels and after market respected these levels with the candle close these levels often get breached with the beginning of the new candle (either for a false or confirmed breakout-Timing). This price behaviour is visible on all time frames. The blue circle on the 5 min chart shows the retest of the orange line (low of August 2010) after this level got breached (confirmed). The 20 SMA also pushed the price further down (trend continuation).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD Market Recap 25.06.12

 

daily-eurusd11.JPG.641efd85a3750640ff069acb6862e469.JPG

 

4h-eurusd15.JPG.a6a50d7771cc1b4000844d4448055d75.JPG

 

1h-EurUsd132.JPG.806b24552e23e0ef9e52dcce27ed7f93.JPG

 

 

Last week the Euro formed a Double Top whereby the second top is a doji on the daily chart. The EUR/USD initially moved down and reached the price target of the Double Top on thursday (EUR/USD Market Recap 21.06.12), which is the breach of the low between the two tops at 1.2557 (low of June 18th-blue line). The Euro found temporary support at the daily 20 SMA after market breached the blue line. The Euro is currently close to the 61.80 % fib retracement (1.2464) of the recent upswing (daily chart).

 

On the 4-hour chart we see that a kind of bearish flag was formed. Today market triggered the bear flag and the Euro resumed its downtrend. The 10 SMA (red line) on the 4-hour and 1-hour chart pushed the Euro down. The Euro found some support at the 61.80 % fib extension from the recent swing down (A-B at C-see 4 hour chart).

 

5min-eurusd36.thumb.JPG.6badbfb350bd907c6549c14ab76af505.JPG

 

The blue circles show some bear and bull flags on the 5 min chart. The fib extension levels 61.80 % (initial target), usually 100 % and sometimes even 161 % (strong trend) are typical swing projection targets e.g. of the bull and bear flags. The swing down after the first bear flag moved to the 161 % fib extension (breach of friday's low-stop triggering). The swing down after the second bear flag only moved to the inital 61.80 % target and the swing up after the small bull flag reached the 100 % fib extension. The recent upswing on the 5 min chart found resistance at the 200 SMA and the 100 % fib extension.

 

 

The main question will be whether the Euro can make some larger retracements from the recent 61.80 fib extension on the 4-hour chart or whether the Euro is forming a new bear flag on the hourly/4-hour chart before resuming the down trend to the 100 % fib extension. The hourly 20 SMA and the 200 SMA on the 5 min chart currently provide some resistance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  macplauz said:
EUR/USD Market Recap 25.06.12

 

Last week the Euro formed a Double Top whereby the second top is a doji on the daily chart. The EUR/USD initially moved down and reached the price target of the Double Top on thursday (EUR/USD Market Recap 21.06.12), which is the breach of the low between the two tops at 1.2557 (low of June 18th-blue line). The Euro found temporary support at the daily 20 SMA after market breached the blue line. The Euro is currently close to the 61.80 % fib retracement (1.2464) of the recent upswing (daily chart).

 

On the 4-hour chart we see that a kind of bearish flag was formed. Today market triggered the bear flag and the Euro resumed its downtrend. The 10 SMA (red line) on the 4-hour and 1-hour chart pushed the Euro down. The Euro found some support at the 61.80 % fib extension from the recent swing down (A-B at C-see 4 hour chart).

 

The blue circles show some bear and bull flags on the 5 min chart. The fib extension levels 61.80 % (initial target), usually 100 % and sometimes even 161 % (strong trend) are typical swing projection targets e.g. of the bull and bear flags. The swing down after the first bear flag moved to the 161 % fib extension (breach of friday's low-stop triggering). The swing down after the second bear flag only moved to the inital 61.80 % target and the swing up after the small bull flag reached the 100 % fib extension. The recent upswing on the 5 min chart found resistance at the 200 SMA and the 100 % fib extension.

 

The main question will be whether the Euro can make some larger retracements from the recent 61.80 fib extension on the 4-hour chart or whether the Euro is forming a new bear flag on the hourly/4-hour chart before resuming the down trend to the 100 % fib extension. The hourly 20 SMA and the 200 SMA on the 5 min chart currently provide some resistance.

 

I get that a lot of this is chart language but I find it very indecisive and confusing. It seems that the reader would not know what to do until after it is done doing what it was going to do and then he can marvel at what it did and feel that he knew it was going to do what it did, but he wouldn't have made a penny since he was undecided about what it was going to do until after it did what it was going to do. I do find the highlighted text particularly funny.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The way I am looking at the pair, the monthly timeframe shows that Eur/usd will drop to at least 1.1677 due to channel movement. After that trade will depend on wether the pair will break the channel or bounce up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  MightyMouse said:
I get that a lot of this is chart language but I find it very indecisive and confusing. It seems that the reader would not know what to do until after it is done doing what it was going to do and then he can marvel at what it did and feel that he knew it was going to do what it did, but he wouldn't have made a penny since he was undecided about what it was going to do until after it did what it was going to do. I do find the highlighted text particularly funny.

 

Thanks for your feedback. I got your point and I think it is a good point. Nothing is for sure and you always have to live with uncertainty. The trader only can try to find high-probability setups with acceptable risk in relation to the price target. The point is that after years of trading I am convinced that these kinds of charting tools/patterns are the most effective. For trading purpose I think it is important to understand these basic charting tools. But more important is to put everything in context. The charting tools give you an understanding on what levels market is likely to react. The way market is reacting often depends on the price action at these levels (context-trend/consolidation, confirmation/non-confirmation of a break, candle close at or near a level at an important timing point (4-hour,hourly close)).

So the first step is to know the important price levels and the second to watch price there (e.g. confirmation of a breach or rejection, fake breakout - only stop fishing).

 

If market is close to a key level (first time) a bounce from this level is likely. If market returns quickly to this level (second test) or market even consolidates at the level (first test-bear flag) then a break of this level is more likely particularly on an important timing point (either fake breakout-stop fishing or true breakout- confirmation). Consolidations often take at least the same time as the last related impulsive swing. Very often market only goes for stop fishing (recent highs/lows, first test) and market does not confirm the breach (breakout candle/stop triggering candle does not get confirmed). A trader should also understand the changing role of support/resistance levels after a confirmed break of a level.

Moreover, a trader should use these charting tools to find confluence levels where more charting signals agree on a specific level and watch price around it, which led to higher probability in trading. If a trader understands these pattern and tools then IMO a trader can better understand price behaviour and is more likely to understand what market action is about and the underlying implications.

 

So in general, a trader should not take a signal (SMA) on its own but should consider the context and also look for confluence levels (key level-first touch). An SMA is stronger in a trend and with a rising/declining shape and at the first touch. However, other tools also should agree on the same levels. The way price reacts on the SMA is also important. If market after bouncing from the SMA only reaches the 61.80 % fib extension of the recent swing and quickly turns back to the SMA then the support/resistance of the SMA for a further bounce might be in question.

 

The recap should help people to get a feeling for the use of the charting tools and the behaviour of price movements. The recap should explain the most influencing chart technical factors (IMO) on the price movements to give people an idea how and why market reacted in a specific way.

 

However, in the recap it is in hindsight and sometimes the recap might highlight the (IMO) most important chart technical reason for a price movement but in real time this would not be enough to qualify for a high-probability trade.

However, you will see that many pattern I highlight will repeat over and over. If someone understands these pattern/ charting tools and the likely implication for future price movements and price targets as well as the rejecting of the pattern then someone can tie everything together and search for high-probability trades (key levels/confluence levels, specific price patterns).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR/USD Market Recap 27.06.12

Everyone is welcome to post some analysis, trade setups, forecasts or thoughts about the EUR/USD so that this thread can get more interactive.

 

1h-EurUsd134.JPG.a9bb4a798b27b3ff5500745fc91707d9.JPG

 

5min-eurusd38.thumb.JPG.82a664325c5b6ed210e42c370061ddd7.JPG

 

Yesterday, the Euro found support at 1.2445 and formed a pin bar on the hourly chart. The bullish pin bar is a reversal pattern and it shows a strong demand at its level of creation. Hence, market was supported at this level and the strong rally back indicated a bullish rejection of the penetrated price level.The pin bar (bullish sign) led to some follow through and the Euro moved up to the 1.2500 zone. However, on the hourly and 5 min chart we see a kind of Head and Shoulder pattern. The brown neckline of the H&S and the supporting green trendline got broken at 1:15 p.m. GMT (confirmed on the 5 min chart). As often, market retested the recent support which now became resistance (neckline, green line) at 1:35 p.m. (small red circle). However, the neckline/green trendline held the market, which also coincided with the 5 min 20 SMA and 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing down. The Euro initially moved down after the retest but market did a second retest of the brown neckline (green circle) after market got rejected at the 61.80 % fib extension and weekly S1 at 2:15 p.m. (pink circle). If market strongly bounce back from the 61.80 % fib extension (no initial penetration or consolidation at this level then a temporary rejection of the current trend on this time frame is likely (either reversal or larger consolidation) and market moves to the recent support/ resistance. However, the Euro could not move above the neckline (green circle) and market resumed its downtrend and finally the Euro reached the H&S target (100 % fib extension from the largest swing of the H&S moved to the breach of the neckline) (blue cirlce). The H&S target also coincided with the March 2009 support level and the 100 % fib extension from the recent swing down. The Euro moved up from there but market penetrated this support level with the beginning of the new 4-hour candle at 4 p.m. after the prior hourly and 4-hour candle already touched (respected) the monthly low of March 2009. However, market only temorary breached this level (brown circle) and the Euro found support at the fib confluence level at about1.2447 and the daily S1. The Euro hold at the two 100 % fib extension and the 61.80 % fib extension (rejection) and market closed again above/at the March 2009 support level (rejection). The Euro resumed its uptrend after the formation of two bull flags (first one at the 5 min 20-SMA resistance).

The price zone of the consolidation at 1 a.m. and at 6 a.m. (on the left of the 5 min chart) gave some support/resistance to the market as the Euro reached this price zone again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think anyplace is a decent place to get in short dependent on your risk tolerance. Throw away the charts. The euro is heading lower.

 

Sub 1.100. I don't know when, or for sure. There is no way to fix the mess in the short run

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think you are right MM...eu leaders are too slow to act and things have been getting worse since this crisis started...I wouldn't be surprise to see 1.1 before end of 2013...

 

German FinMin spokesman denies earlier WSJ report that Germany ready to move sooner than expected on shared liability of EZ debt. EURUSD falls.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Jonh Smith
      I searched in google with keywords best forex robot 2019 and in the end I found fxflightproEA from their website fxflightpro.com . if anyone has ever bought, I was interested in their ea. I saw a very small drawdown, and monthly profit looks great.and I see myfxbook profit reaching 50% in 50 days. if there are buy please review here and I say thank you if anyone would like to share here.

      thanks
    • By StraussX
      Hi GUYS, Happy Wednesday!
      I'd like to share daily forex analysis from Followme, hope this information helps your trading.
      Today, Let's focus on AUD and NZD.
      AUDUSD is trading at 0.6761; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6765 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6635. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6825. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6905.
       
      NZDUSD is trading at 0.6447; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6455 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6315. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6525. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6645.
    • By Georgebro8
      So I've been 18 for about 4 months, since I turned 18 I started up an account, and basically thought I was doing amazing because of beginners luck, put in some of my savings and managed to do well, some days I would make £200, one day I even made £900, after time I lost my profits and made a loss as well. I've realised I need to spend the time analysing the market and making technical judgments. I'm trying to read more and spend a lot of my time looking at the charts. is there any advice people can give me. and is making 5% a week a realistic goal to set myself? before anyone assumes that im looking for a get rich quick scheme, im certainly not, I see every loss ive made as a lesson and ensure that I learn from each mistake I make. 
      any advice about indicators, strategies, how to analyse the market, or even analysing earning reports would help me.
    • By edakad
      Firebird is an indicator to identify the price spikes in the market. Firebird indicator first calculates a 10-period moving average, then shifts this moving average a certain percentage above and below the 10-period moving average. The shifted averages are drawn on chart as the red and green line. When price touches these lines, price spike is identified. Usually after a price spike, the trend reverses for some time. The indicator can be used to take advantage of this price behaviors. In daily chart usually the 10 period MA is shifted by 2 percent to form the price bands. On lower time frames like Hourly, Four Hour a smaller percentage price shift is used like 0.5% . The important consideration here is most of the price bars must be contained within the upper and lower bands.
      When price reaches above the upper red band, a sell position is opened. When price reaches the lower green band, buy position is opened. Trades can be managed with proper stop loss and take profit. In the picture, Firebird indicator is attached to daily chart of EUR/USD with 2% shift on MA. Note that almost all price bars are within the price bands. And when price extends beyond these bands, price trend reverses and comes back into the bands.

      FireBird.zip
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.