Facebook Thread for Analysis & Investment

[minoo 11]

Is Facebook showing good value now or has still further to trade down

 

How would you possibly analyse a recently (very limited Data) floated share like Facebook

 

Its around 40% lower than it inital hour trading high of 45.

 

4th June close 26.89 and Low so far is 26.44.

 

Would like to identify viable support (23.5 ?) level to start accumulating (average into) this stock ? ?

 

Would like your Analysis & Comments about this particular stock

 

Thankyou Minoo

[karoshiman 10]

 

...

 

Would like to identify viable support (23.5 ?) level to start accumulating (average into) this stock ? ?

 

...

 

 

 

Sounds like you have bought the stock already. Have you ever heard that averaging is usually not a good proposition in trading? This is no exception. Sell all of your holdings in FB and wait for a bottom forming...

 

Not only that you increase your losses if you keep holding the stock, but you have also opportunity costs. Instead of holding the stock and analyzing it and/or hoping for it to return you could make money elsewhere in the meantime. FB is not the only tradable instrument out there...

 

Accept and take the losses and move on.

[MadMarketScientist 11]

I agree with the other posters here ...take your losses (if you have any) and move on. FB's ads don't work, the ecommerce stores didn't work, the tax on game revenue is questionable as zygna's revenue is questionable, in short the killer revenue model is still unknown. The social media bubble is bursting right before our eyes.

 

MMS

[c0l$il 10]

First rule of trading cut losses.

[minoo 11]

Thankyou all for the response, much appreciated

 

I mostly daytrade futures and cyclically invest with ETF and use option or futures for hedging my portfolio

Have so far left individual stocks alone and thought to take up the challenge with FB (Dont particularly know why it appeals to me but a challenge)

 

I dont normally initiate an investment without proper insurance to the support area (ie put options)

Enroute to London when working for a prop firm in London; One of the respected trader told me in flight: Just as one buys insurance before their travel one should do the same with any of their investment till atleast you can lock in profit. Since following the advise, I have done well with my protfolio & managing the Assets accordingly. I also believe in Sell in May and Go Away; Got rid of various Commodity based Assets and looking to Diversify a little now.

 

With FB I missed taking out the put options and its coming to some initial support (refer aobve chart). I have work out to average into this stock so bought the first lot below 27 (@ the1st support on my chart) and plan to average into it till 23.5. This initial execution may work out as mean reversion phenomena may help the stock, I may employ this profit as stop loss margin later. Every 1% in profit I will Scale in and at 3% in profit I will lock in some gains. Good going so far.

 

Updating this in the initial half hour of the market open, so there are no hindsight doubts.

Any feedback appreciated; Now back to trading .....

 

Thanks Minoo

Edited June 5, 2012 by minoo

[minoo 11]

1 June Inside Day Gap fill at 27.72; So locked in profit

Seeking entry further below, I will try to avearge into this by buying it cheaper than my first support entry below 27 or when it again crosses my 1st support level above

Will FB make double bottom or 2B type divergence pattern ? 10:15 EST

 

Refer Chart, -Ta Minoo

[minoo 11]

The 3% profit is deployed as stop loss below the low so far as my entry is Averaged in near the low; FB is coming to test this low so far at 26.61

ES futures mean reverts to VWAP, test from above so hopeful of positive test for support here, EST 1100 +

 

I got to work my ES entry at VWAP (If ES falls 2 point below VWAP most probably I will exit out of FB)

 

Refer FB Chart for entry and test of area

 

Good Trading Minoo

[minoo 11]

FB prices have come to my next area lower to Average In

While FB is trying to make new low here (around 26 ish)

ES is trying to make new high, with Market Internals staying positive

A classic price divergence

 

The only thing to wait on FB is now the Net Vol to turn positive after price dipping below 26

I would like to Average in another part of the first-lot, When Net Vol turns positive on FB.

 

Refer FB Chart

 

Enjoy Minoo

 

As I post this the 26 area is being tested on FB, EST 1518

[minoo 11]

FB EOD Update

 

Forgot to mention I went flat on the FB puts before CBOE close, purchased at 1 June Gap fill level in the AM

I prefer to use put options instead of static Stop Loss on Stocks and ETFs while averaging into its value

I mentioned my intention to Average in right from the out set as its difficult to trade the bottoms.

Note: Put option increases in value as one gets to average in at lower prices

 

FB shyed away couple of ticks from entering the final Average In Zone so did not manage to Average in the Last part of my first lot (Refer Chart);

But amticipated buyers at close so am glad to be out of put position

 

If overnight ES session trades higher towards 1300 than FB has good chance to Gap Up along with the indices at open tomorrow

FB closed 25.87 with Good Positive Net Vol

 

Note: This type of investing is certainly not meant for the newbies or traders who does not understand the Hedging concept, but you may learn, Non-price data on indices and the stock is vital, note where the ES fair value closed today.

New Stocks / IPO like FB lacking in Data are challenging, I am just taking it publicly to adhere & be consistent at the method.

 

Keep an Open Mind and you may Learn, who knows either from my mistakes or method,

Its not about being wrong or right, The Market always will take care of that.

My intention is to try use this method to be more consistent with this Challenging Market & Stock. Trying it out publicly may Help my concious behave consistently, Amen!

 

Goodnight Minoo

[jimbo320 10]

Often IPO stocks give a surge some time after the offering.

However with all the negative hype on

FB the odds might be against you here.

But best of luck, if sentiment impoves it could bounce nicely.

[minoo 11]

Indeed ES touched 1300 in overnight trading and gracefully mean reverted to 1290 ish just before RTH opening & back to 1300 level around EST 1000

 

Opening Notes

Market Internals from the open were strongly positive, With $Tick so far in positive only terrritory

So seeking entry near the lows on positive net vol on FB when / if it retest the low area

FB fabulously dipped below 26 (opening low =25.52) so Limit Order at 25.60 (24.6 would been text book trade but .. . . taking what market is giving now & getting back to my futures trading)

Order got filled almost instantly, so snapping and sending

I will give this averaged in positions the time and room to work out

As I scale in at higher levels I will trail the stops up

Got to pay attention to my daytrading now, yesterdays 1277 at VWAP was an key area

 

Enjoy Minoo 1013 EST

[minoo 11]

A quick update

 

Entry at 26 on retest with positive net vol

 

As I am writing this (EST 1445) FB at 26.5, so locking in some gains here, same as in AM

 

Refer Chart

[minoo 11]

Trade Progression

 

Targets to Lock in Gains

 

As I post this again 26.96 (Orange line in chart), Trigering some profit taking

But Net Vol is still positive so just Trailing Stop close some profit taking

 

Refer to Chart Please

 

I am done for today

 

Thanks Minoo

EST 1501

[minoo 11]

Ok here is the chart

 

Look at the Net Vol in top left corner of 1st Window

I trial it as long as the Net Vol remain positive

Nearing R1 as it got negative I took off some profit (6 June)

Got to go, I may not update tomorrow

 

Enjoy Minoo

[narcontis 10]

Even at $7 I think Facebook would be hugely overvalued. That would mean a market cap of around $15b for a co that made only $1b in profits last year.

 

Just like AOL,fb is a fade, people get way to caught up in what is hot for the day instead of looking at the large picture. Technology and the way we use the internet is changing faster and fast; do you really think that in 15 yrs from now kids will be signing up for fb? No way imo, fb will be history and long forgotten just like another wall st darling in its day; AOL

 

the fact that they did the IPO at valuation close to $100b is an insult to any sane rational investor. Even Google (which has 10 times the lasting potential into the future that fb does) went public well under $25b

[minoo 11]

Just the same thing (Get rid of Put before CBOE close and Buy the Stock)

 

As ES came to my area of 1306 after filling the overnight Gap at 1309 ish

$Tick hook up with ES Net Vol starting to pick up

 

FB nicely came near the aformentioned 26 Area

And limit order at Pivot area just above 26 got executed

(Refer Chart)

 

Will we get the chance to average in below 26 tomorrow or will the area Breakdown ? ? ?

 

I am just trading Technically here; Not much of News or Fundamental Guy

Its very difficult to be consistent as it is; Too much of such information makes me compromise my system so I avoid it if possible.

 

Goodnight Minoo

Note: I bought FB even though the Net Vol was negative but use the anchor chart of ES instead

[minoo 11]

As requested my ES Chart

I primarily daytrade the emini Indices ES & NQ

 

I use put options on popular Indices at areas of Target to protect my Invested ETF Portfolio

 

FB stock is not part of my portfolio & am experimenting with it and doing the same thing

I never invest the whole lot in, always Average In around the identified Areas and Scale In when market permits

At Targets collect some profit & employ Put option (When Big Picture is Bearish) to protect the rest;

Again at Support below Buy the Stock using Indices charts support and non price data events

Thats it.

 

Hope this helps

Minoo

[minoo 11]

8June RTH opening ES Gapped Down

Market Internals negative with $Tick mostly negative at opening

 

But FB showing very strong positive Vol today right from the opening (FB Gapped Up)

 

Hopeful of ES Gap fill as it tested the 1300 area in RTH successfully and have turn to the upside with $Tick above zero line

Got to give it time to work out . . . . .

 

As ES filled its Gap levels of 50%, 61.8%, etc FB went up through resistance level with Net Positive Vol; So hold through each of them

 

After ES filled Gap at 1309.5

FB approached R2 level and Vol became Negative

And the Rest is History . . . . . (Refer to Charts)

 

Though note today 8 June FB has left unfilled gap below at 26.3 ish

 

I hope I have been able to shed some light here

 

Enjoy Minoo

 

Note: Mits and rest I will get back to you all with an common answer to your questions & queries

[minoo 11]

(I will try to cover questions of Market Internals, etc as well as Mits question above on ReAction, hence a bit long winded reply . . .)

 

Please be aware when you read the below that I prefer to differentiate between Market / Price 'Action' and 'Re-action'

To me market or Price Action is mostly normal auction of healthy bid / ask with reasonable volume

Market Reaction is borne out of News, Speech, Stats, etc etc

 

I would rather prefer to Act according to my system than React to news releases or speeches (noise)

Bias is something I strive to stay clear off as this mostly is borne from my thinking or on the fly analysis

 

The best practical way I have found is to be aware of such news events than conciously cut down on the outside noise.

I try to derive info from my charts & data only, Both of Price charts and Non-price data (more important)

 

Non Price Data (Market Internals)

Personally in my trading plan I call it as 'Market Radar'

ie Up & Down Vol; Increasing & Decreasing Issues, Buy & Sell Prog, $Tick & USDollar Direction

My RADAR shows me the Preference of the floor (existing pressure or energy of the market)

I have preset sound alerts on Market Internals Data so my workspace alerts me timely on events such as extreme $Ticks or prog buy / sell which precedes price Re-actions.

 

Next is Grid (ie Areas)

Defined Areas ie RTH Open, VWAP, Previous HLC, Globex Hi Low, Gaps, Pivot levels, etc

 

Lastly or rather Firstly is Preparation

Premarket Preparation of Self and System both (Vital Step)

Where I prepare myself to be objective part of my System & Trade Management

To do my assign Role, Processes as per Events

I develop market-mental-map during the pre market preparation (ie take account of overnight action, impending news, speeches, Gap, Present price level (Fib measured alternate) last Mean Reversion, etc)

 

With the above mental prepartion and map if some news/speech moves the market negatively or positively

Than you have the real time data of Market Internals (with timely sound alerts) and Grid layed out for the price mostly to be reactive from and within (S&R areas). Most News events resultantly trade as Parabola pattern (Sometimes not on the same day, check the last two days indices data & draw out the Parabola than go back in time on big news days and check for the recurrance) Also have a look at price pattern on lower time frame charts preceding to big news or speeches; I avoid taking new trades when pattern is forming.

 

Understanding of How Market Internals acts precedingly to Market / Price Reaction (news, speeches, etc) and during Proper Price Action or Auction is Vital. Many Trading Plans do not account for such different Market Scenarios

 

For daytrading the eminis

I prefer the Opening Preference of Market Internals rather than Big Picture or Higher Time Frame charts. Here Big Picture is my present Hind-sight

But developing Bias based on Big Picture I find it deterimental to my Daytrading (This is personal to my system)

I would rather concentrate on the Markets Current or Opening Energy or existing Floor Pressure derived from Market Internals rather than any higher time frame chart for Daytrading.

 

 

I try to keep my Trading Environment clutter free & focus on the current data and chart action, especially when price approaches defined areas in my system (Important); This practise gives me much confidence to trade the market. But realistically we humans cannot do well at all times with the market despite all the routine and preparations. Than the best position for me is the Conciously-Out-Position (COP). This exercise was particularly hard for me and had to get professional guidance as if you fail to stop than you may sabotage yourself (Conciously or Sub-Conciously). My focus mostly lasts from 20mins to 2 hrs top. So I do my trading etc in two or three different sessions for the Day. But mostly only do two sessions.

 

When lack of focus or void happens there is room made for emotions to play & may takeover; So I tend to have mental routines to make my self act timely (Process based Trading). I have studied the science of Trade Management but to perform the The timely Art of Trade Management is quint-essential to me.

 

No Rules here only Guidelines or my mind inherently wonders away to break known Rules (especially the Donts or Do Nots). Have a Congnitive plan to train yourselves to your system and trading plan. Know and acknowledge your traderself (the good, the bad & the ugly). Exercise and Cultivate the Discipline rather than just trying to Impose it on your trader self (It didnot work with me, kept trading my mistakes repeatedly and call myself all sort of things and wasted a lot of time)

 

Thanks for all the questions, hope I have covered most of them.

 

For extra charts, etc kindly refer to previous threads like; 'Charting the Past Bear' and Steve46 thread 'Ideas for Struggling Traders' There is also seperate Market Internal Section at TradersLaboratory

 

All the Best

Minoo

[minoo 11]

What I did after the last chart and whether I am long or short now and what I intend to do with FB

ok will answer to these question & clear up misunderstanding on lock in profit term

 

I am not sure of my future intentions now but will keep and eye on FB

I beleive in having some big Eggs only and looking after them Deligently

Admit liquidity and volatility both are good in FB

Whether FB qulaifies or not it remains yet to be seen (ie Value, Yield, Corelation, etc)

 

First I want to clear up one misunderstanding here about Lock in Profit (LiP)

When I lock in profit that doesnot mean I have made an decision on market to take off the contracts or shares immediately

I tighten my stop as it approaches target areas and let market do its own thing, If it wants to give more than I will trail along happily & if it doesnot than the tighten stop loss order will do its job; Though I will pull the trigger if both net-vol and $tick have evidently change affecting the price

 

What I did after the last chart posted ? (or rather how it played out)

The target R2 was almost reached with momentum and as some WRB was evident on 10 minute chart. One would anticipate some pullback as ES Gap had also just filled (marked in chart)

 

When its difficult to make decision during consolidation period or pattern formation

I employ non-oco brackets, to let market work out its own direction and trigger into trade in its own time. FB formed price-pattern (Refer Chart); Where its best left to market to workout its own direction. I noted the negative net vol and $Tick falling and anticipated the trigger to the downside bracket order

 

Price gracefully than mean reverted to the Fib line (Refer Chart 2, orange line)

& Lets just say I took the remaining off at first line of support, so virtually flat here.

Note the Net Vol is still negative so I normally would hold, if short and lock in profit by tightening my stops; Unless both Net Vol and $Tick changes (The situation was different here as market had reverse my holding and I will allow that to the point of mean reversion slope)

 

I hope it certainly doesnot matter now whether I am in or long or short FB

I believe One can make money by their Own way Only

Trade according to your trading plan and dont change it on the fly

Otherwise you will be trying to trade someone else's Plan and against your own Personality

You can learn the method and make it your own first & than try out the odds

(Whenever I change my Trading Plan, I vigourouly test it with my Trade Management criteria)

 

Yes, I do Reccommend a Blog and a Book, Please find it in Zdo's thread 'Flow Thyself'

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/7576-flow-thyself.html

 

I believe, its mostly about overselves rather than about our systems or trading plans; Previously when struggling I spent 90% effort & repeated effort in indicators, plans, system, etc etc. Had heard about 'Self and Psychology' (SnP) were all important but seldom did reaslise than, The importance of it or How True it was. Make an honest effort in yourself and see what difference it makes to your trading life.

 

Best Trading to you All

Minoo

Edited June 10, 2012 by minoo

[jimbo320 10]

Gone quiet? I hope you were patient, nice rally of the lows.

[minoo 11]

Jimbo nothing but patience, wish I had more of it.

Yesterday was challenging to hold as the indices were tumbling & was doubting whether I dont land up marrying this stock. But FB was very resilient yesterday.

Once you have worked your position, nothing else but to sit tight; Wish my memory was good enough to quote Jessie Livermore quote here.

 

Today it paid me well & just took most of it off as Net Vol went negative approaching area above, Refer to chart

 

I am holding some token shares to again do the same drill Average in when opprotunity allows.

I will wait now for either FB to hit the above fib and gap targets and than retrace back towards the unfilled gaps it has left behind.

 

Enjoy the Weekend

Minoo

[jimbo320 10]

Well done. Pleased you did well.

Good IPO pullback trade.

[minoo 11]

Sorry for late posting as my Work PC played up a bit today

(bad sector errors on drive, so HD soon to be replaced)

A bit challenging day for me, sorry No timely charts, this is the best I could do.

 

News Day so had to concentrate in the AM in Daytrading the Futures

As recently mentioned I anticipate a parabola type pattern and mentally have to prepare myself 'Differently' for Big News/Speech daysI seldom take part in the first directional move of such news day to preserve my mental-capital as these days are normally long & usually rewarding to trade

 

If you menatally prepare yourself to play the known usual parabolic pattern than they are also fun to play (It may look as countertrend trade and may involve reversing as well)

First thing is to act your discipline, as mention previously COP (Conciously Out Position) for the initial Opening-Direction & Leg

Than once I get the change in signal from Market Internal data (extreme $Tick Hook, Prog Buy / Sell Alerts, etc) affecting the Price, I go Prepared, Tango with this Lanky Lady (market price action, Refer to ES Charts)

 

 

FB

Was challenging to come back to play with; As due to my recent stock daytrading account locked up at PFGBest

 

Did played a little with FB; Didnot take any major position long as still there is impending Gap to fill at lower level

 

Only manage to scale in no Averaging today in stocks

FB did move lower after I took the initial positions but turn around just before touching the support Area below

 

When I took these FB positions it had clearly fallen behind to rising Stock Indices.

 

So for me clear divergence in prices & just took the ride on the lagging FB prices when Net Vol become positive just above areas of support

 

(by time of stock entry Market Internals, $Tick and Indices all had turn around and were scaling higher)

 

Enjoy Minoo

[minoo 11]

Note FB just manage an Outside Day but still under 29.5 overhead Resistance

Pending Earnings figure and Gap below to fill at 26.31 (This kind of situation makes me nervous so will let go till good opportunity arrives at areas)

 

Same Drill on open take profit at first pivot target

Any intraday target of 3% or over near an area (Previous High) than lock in profit

Re-Enter at Previous Low (PL) or Support Area below PL with Net Vol change in direction of Long Trade.

So far the above technique for range bound trading has work well (Pending Earnings Figure)

 

Note: There is negative sentiment generally in the market this week by too many Technical-Analyst, so trading the charts still on the long side but nimble and ready

 

Enjoy Minoo