Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

lastninja2

The Un/importance of "context" when Scalping

Recommended Posts

Hi,

 

I'm aware that there are a few experienced guys lurking on these forums and I'd very much like to hear their thoughts on this:

 

Basically, I am troubled as to how relevant the market "context", as I call it, is to a pure scalper.

By pure scalping, I refer to using a mix of limit and market orders to take 1 or 2 ticks from the market. I keep my eyes transfixed on the price ladder for the vast majority of the day; I have no particular bias from one moment to the next, as far as I am concerned - anything can happen at any moment... a long, a short, it makes no matter.

If the momentum happens to be to the upside, I'll be watching the offers to see how they behave when someone starts to lift them... if the offer looks to be running scared, I might lift it myself to contribute to that upwards momentum. If my timing is right, that price will go bid immediately, and I will essentially be onside immediately.

If I lift the offer and it does not go bid, I am ready to bail on the trade for a 1 tick loss, 2 ticks would be upsetting. 3 and 4 ticks, a real headache.

 

All that said, both the market profile and traditional charts throw up some interesting cues as to what price might do next: sometimes price bounces off the prior day low. Sometimes it blasts right through. Sometimes that level might be the prior day point of control. Whatever.

Sometimes price will form short-term support and resistance. Sometimes price will bounce off a market profile buying tail. Sometimes price will run clean through a set of single prints.

...

Should a pure scalper care?

Am I being too narrow minded in just focussing on the interaction of the inside bid, offer and executed trades, while essentially ignoring whatever price level we happen to be at?

So long as I trade in the overall direction of the market, I'm not going to get caught out on a stop run. If anything, I might inadvertently stumble in to a string of stops while simply trying to scalp out 1 tick.

 

Really tired, hope this made some sense.

 

Thanks for any and all input.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

" Should a pure scalper care?" about context.

 

Basically I would say yes - and you just gave the context of what you are trying to do in your description of how you do it.

Context like everything is relative to what you are trying to capture.

When I talk about context its larger time frame, right down to trying to read the intraday stuff, but its context as to how I see it and context as to how I apply it.

eg; bear market...., i like to run shorts over a long term, however i may still trade some longs but due to the context of when i try and put them on, i will likely look to take profits quickly.

 

I think in your case, at a guess it just increases the probabilities of getting more trades right than wrong, and the real focus for you is such things as minimizing costs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LN2,

 

Yeah you were kinda subconsciously defining context there. If you take a long because momentum is there and you time your trade so that you get onside a few pretty much instantly, why are you choosing to do so at that specific point? You might see that volume/delta accelerating (without capitulating) through obvious resistance after earlier having failed to continue either at or below key support, as lending enough support to the idea that you could well nick a tick or two with your ninja-like order flow skills :). I have found that the more you think through and try to understand what you do (successfully or otherwise), the better placed you are to make consistent decisions. If for example, you were to remain a scalper, yet thoroughly take on board the concept of auction principles, I believe it's possible to really increase your win:loss. Possibly even push the scalp a couple of extra ticks in many cases.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When I mentioned there were a few experienced guys floating around the forums, I was hoping to get replies exactly as above.

Thanks a lot, its helped to clarify my thoughts on the matter.

 

If i recall correclty, Negotiator, you replied to a thread of mine about scalping (market vs limit orders) a while ago, and pointed out the importance of execution speed/costs. Fortunately I am ideally positioned now to trade in such a very short-term manner... really feel as though I'm making progress towards finding my own trading style (never mind developing the relevant skills) - it has taken a very long time and still just one of the first steps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
When I mentioned there were a few experienced guys floating around the forums, I was hoping to get replies exactly as above.

Thanks a lot, its helped to clarify my thoughts on the matter.

 

If i recall correclty, Negotiator, you replied to a thread of mine about scalping (market vs limit orders) a while ago, and pointed out the importance of execution speed/costs. Fortunately I am ideally positioned now to trade in such a very short-term manner... really feel as though I'm making progress towards finding my own trading style (never mind developing the relevant skills) - it has taken a very long time and still just one of the first steps.

 

Excellent. Just keep working away and be as professional as you can and of course if you ever have any questions, you know where to come ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have found scalping best with using limits of 2. Since one cant always 'close' the trade. I also dont go in 'deep' water when the market is very volatile.

Basically buy up on the way up and down on the way down. Using two accounts if necessary.

I trade the indices. The DAX and Wall St where there is a one spread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 4th April 2025.   USDJPY Falls to 25-Week Low as Safe Havens Surge and Markets Eye NFP Data.   Safe haven currencies and the traditional alternative to the US Dollar continue to increase in value while the Dollar declines. Investors traditionally opt to invest in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc at times of uncertainty and when they wish to avoid the Dollar. The Japanese Yen continues to be the best-performing currency of the week and of the day. Will this continue to be the case after today’s US employment figures?   USDJPY - NFP Data And Trade Negotiations The USDJPY is currently trading at a 25-week low and is witnessing one of its strongest declines this week. The exchange rate is no longer obtaining indications from the RSI that the price is oversold. The current bullish swing is obtaining indications of divergence as the price fails to form a higher high. Therefore, short-term momentum is in favour of the US Dollar, but there are still signs the Japanese Yen can regain momentum quickly.       USDJPY 1-Hour Chart     The price movement of the exchange rate in both the short and long term will depend on 3 factors. Today’s US employment data, next week’s inflation rate and most importantly the progress of negotiations between the US and trade partners. If today’s Unemployment Rate increases above 4.1%, the reading will be the highest seen so far in 2025. Currently, the market expects the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.1% and the Non-Farm Payroll Change to add 137,000 jobs. The average NFP reading this year so far has been 194,000.   If data does not meet expectations, US investors may continue to increase exposure away from the Dollar and to other safe-haven assets. Previously investors were expecting only 2 rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, however, most investors now expect up to 4. If today’s employment data deteriorates, economists advise the Federal Reserve may opt to cut interest rates sooner.   Therefore, it is important to note that today’s NFP will influence the USDJPY to a large extent. Whereas in the longer-term, trade negotiations will steal the spotlight. If trade partners are able to negotiate the US Dollar can correct back upwards. Whereas, if other countries retaliate and do not negotiate the US Dollar will remain weak.   USDJPY - The Yen and the Bank of Japan The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency in 2025 increasing by 6.70% so far. Risk indicators such as the VIX and High-Low Indexes continue to worsen which is positive for the JPY as a safe haven currency.   Yesterday Japan released March business activity data that came in weaker than expected: the Services PMI dropped from 53.7 to 50.0, while the Composite PMI fell from 52.0 to 48.9. The data is the lowest in two years. These figures could hinder further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. However, most economists still expect the Bank Of Japan to hike at least once more. It's also important to note, that even if the BOJ opts for a prolonged pause, a cut is not likely.   Additionally, a 24% tariff was imposed on Japanese exports to the US yesterday. Prime Minister Mr Ishiba expressed disappointment over Japan's failure to secure a tariff exemption and pledged support measures to help domestic industries manage the impact.   Key Takeaway Points: US Dollar Weakens, Safe Havens Rise: The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc continue to gain as investors shift away from the US Dollar. USDJPY Under Pressure: USDJPY trades at a 25-week low, with short-term momentum favouring the Dollar but long-term trends pointing to potential Yen strength. NFP and Unemployment Crucial: Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures will heavily influence short-term USDJPY. On the other hand, trade negotiations will dictate longer-term trends. Japan Faces Mixed Signals: Despite weak PMI data and new US tariffs, the Japanese Yen remains strong. Economists expect at least one more rate hike from the Bank of Japan, but no cuts are in sight. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • YUM Yum Brands stock, nice breakout with volume +34.5%, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?YUM
    • Date: 3rd April 2025.   Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.   Key Takeaways:   Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking. President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions. Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal. Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction. Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook. Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.   The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.   Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.   Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.   Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.   Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.         Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.   On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.   Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.   Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.   Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.