Week 9

[steveshutts 10]

Attention switching from the Yen to the dollar this week, with plenty of data out to cause some action on the majors. Nice bullish end to last week on cable, but scrappy today with the fib confluence up at 9660 area keeping a lid on cable this morning, as most await the Durable Goods tomorrow. Most of the data is expected to be dollar bearish apart from the Manufacturing releases.

Looks like 9600 is holding at the moment. 9730/50 will be the key level that the cable bulls need to hurdle if we get a continuation of this move up this week. Any further push down towards 9534, the higher low printed on Friday, would seriously negate this recent move up.

 

 

 

[Buk 10]

Most of the data is expected to be dollar bearish apart from the Manufacturing releases.

 

Looks like 9600 is holding at the moment. 9730/50 will be the key level that the cable bulls need to hurdle if we get a continuation of this move up this week. Any further push down towards 9534, the higher low printed on Friday, would seriously negate this recent move up.

 

 

it's certainly a neutral to weak $ stance Steve for sure.....Euro is pressuring the top end of it's channel & looks good to go for a run up to check the bullish momentum.....wouldn't be surprised to witness a shake out of weak longs on a confirmed shunt to the 3250 area, with a pullback buy opp....same on Cable at current highs.......

 

obviously it will be 'data dependant' but any mopping up of Euro & Cable longs transacted on Friday & again today, especially on Euro's trip back to todays pivot @ 3150, are sitting to the right side of the value-risk bias......

 

 

[steveshutts 10]

Well, got the long trigger at 9612 after the fake out south. Too good to miss the turn at the asian base and the bounce off the 50 fib.

Scaled already so free trade to ride out the news this afternoon. I expect home sales will be the key data release today but not expecting too much if these figures come in as expected? We have the important GDP revision tomorrow and unless we get surprise releases today, i'd expect most will be awaiting those tomorrow?

 

 

[milliard 10]

The Housing Data is being underlined on both sides of the pond Steve. Both sets of finance offices are chattering it up for obvious reasons, so it's sure worthy of more than a casual glance.

 

This shake & pop could be tested back to the London base on a jump through last weeks highs on both European leaders up at current levels, Euro has the toughest barrier to blow through with the channel top on a sideways resistance marker to the Dec 20 high (1.3244).

[steveshutts 10]

Excuse my ignorance Milliard, but what is the London base? Are you referring to the price at 08:00 GMT?

[Anna-Maria 10]

3205: R1, 78.6 & the likely 1st line stop bed for these intraday runners off the Asian lows here.

 

That collection will send it back for sure if it's not supported into the European doldrums. Durable Goods will be the first $ test of the week. Should attract decent follow thru if that number disappoints.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Excuse my ignorance Milliard, but what is the London base? Are you referring to the price at 08:00 GMT?

 

Yes Steve,

 

3160-80 Euro

 

9600-610 Cable

 

Meaning, they'll look to shake out any new(er) weak longs into the Durable Goods, if this initial pop fails to hold above the Asian highs.

[milliard 10]

Yeah, quite a bit of dual side activity between Buk's top tier channel lines Anna.

 

% profits likely being booked off last weeks shift through 1.31. The "indicator crowd" are chirping topping up here too - good enough reason to buy any pullback lag imo LOL.

[steveshutts 10]

Thanks Anna, i thought that was it.

Coming off a little now. Lets see if we find support at the pivot and todays open.

Stop down at 9590 so hopefully should be able to ride this out if we get some dollar negative news?

[milliard 10]

Safe a place as any (590) considering you nailed your premium entry at the 610.

 

You got the market doing the work for you now. If the $ gloom unfolds, you have your optimum kick to the upside. If not, you're booked & ready to switch. The late comers are handling all the risk from hereon in.

[Art Krantz 10]

Well, got the long trigger at 9612 after the fake out south. Too good to miss the turn at the asian base and the bounce off the 50 fib.

Scaled already so free trade to ride out the news this afternoon.

 

Surprised you're not hunting with the Yen Bulls Steve? Again, far less stress gunning the carry positions than dodging bullets on these babies & more bang for your buck?

 

You got a good handle on your set ups & tools, they'd keep you tucked away safely if & when the conditions get windy.

 

Looks like you'll get a run on your trade in 15mins if the number doesn't shake up the dirt anyhow.

 

Some heavy duty specs turning the Bears over on the Asians by the looks Andre! You sure got "your fun" by the looks.

 

The China ticket & repatriation no doubt adding to the assault.

[steveshutts 10]

Yeah, bit of unwinding of those carry trade positions. To be honest, i didn't expect such a move. GBP/JPY has really shifted off some today and technically a very easy one to catch from the break of that daily doji printed on Friday.

Maybe a covering of speculative positions as well in advance of the inflation figures on Thursday?

Awaiting durable goods now, fingers crossed for bad data!!

[steveshutts 10]

Lovely print.

[steveshutts 10]

Cable doesn't want to hurdle this 9660 barrier at all, its just not playing ball at all.

[steveshutts 10]

Will someone buy some sterling please.

Everyones buying yen by the looks of it!!

[milliard 10]

Some heavy duty specs turning the Bears over on the Asians by the looks Andre! You sure got "your fun" by the looks.

 

The China ticket & repatriation no doubt adding to the assault.

 

They're jawboning the goddamned thing to death Krantzy. We got Chinese & Jap top table talking heads chatterin the wires to dust on the overnights.

 

+ Smaghi & Juncker tripping over their bootlaces on a mission to the mic. LOL, it's a regular circus out there again huh?

 

Yen's getting a backwind from the heavy duty (Asian) Life offices past couple days. Repatriation will account for a whole heap of att'n for sure.

[milliard 10]

Will someone buy some sterling please.

Everyones buying yen by the looks of it!!

 

Yeah, the hitters are on the other boat Steve.

 

Like Krantzy mentioned, it's (still) the path of least resistance!

[Buk 10]

They're jawboning the goddamned thing to death Krantzy. + Smaghi & Juncker tripping over their bootlaces on a mission to the mic. LOL, it's a regular circus out there again huh?

 

:o

 

this just ticked across the screen......you couldn't make it up LOL........

 

 

BRUSSELS (AFX) - European Central Bank board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said euro zone finance ministers should exercise greater discipline in their comments on exchange rates.

 

"Although the current arrangements on the exchange rate policy of the euro area are well designed, they probably need to be better implemented, in particular to achieve more stringent verbal discipline," he said in a speech.

 

"When euro area finance ministers express themselves on exchange rate issues in terms that differ from each other and from the agreed euro area and G7 positions, the most likely outcome on financial markets is the opposite of that intended," he said.

 

Bini Smaghi said market participants interpret any differences in statements on currencies as indications of potential disagreements between policymakers and then tend to push exchange rates in the opposite direction to that desired by the person making the statement.

 

He said public communication on exchange rate issues should be conducted mainly by ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet and euro group president Jean-Claude Juncker.

 

"The members of the euro group should thus align their communication to the message agreed between the ECB and the euro group presidency," he said.

[milliard 10]

You see the 2nd edit Buk? Now that's a giggle or three.

 

You were on the nail re: 'voluntary exit', certainly via dllr/yen - kudos!

 

Retail chasers will fuel the kick & they'll be a mild handover.

 

118.29 (50% of 114.40/122.20) on the short term radar, then some flak through to the 06 summer line at 117.35, the 61.8.

 

Should attract short term specs & value chasers all the way down from 119.20 if this remains genuine.

[steveshutts 10]

Positive home sales and consumer confidence. Not looking too good for this cable long now. The lid must have been kept on cable from all this selling against the yen.

Terrible choice of trades today.

[Anna-Maria 10]

 

Terrible choice of trades today.

 

 

Don't beat yourself up! You extracted profit & hit your plan based on your observations.

 

Book it, sit back & wait for the table to lay the odds again. If it offers you the chance to saddle up at a better price, take it if not, seek out a table (diff pair) with brighter colored chips!

[steveshutts 10]

Yeah, fair comment. So unusual to see cable standing still and everything else going full steam ahead.

I am trying to get to grips with the fundamentals as well to give myself a better insight into what to trade. Saw the huge sell off on yen last week, which made me realise that i need to concentrate more on what is going on fundamentally so i can try and take advantage of these moves. Huge amount of dollar data out this week so i switched my focus to the dollar pairs, keeping a close eye on the Euro and Cable.

I suppose if there hadn't been so much selling of sterling and Euro today then it may have painted a different picture.

Looking at the daily frames , the Yen does provide a much cleaner picture, something i need to consider more in future i suppose.

Just closed my position at 43, out for today.

[Anna-Maria 10]

I am trying to get to grips with the fundamentals as well to give myself a better insight into what to trade.

 

Saw the huge sell off on yen last week, which made me realise that i need to concentrate more on what is going on fundamentally so i can try and take advantage of these moves.

 

Quite often the pace in which these animals move (based on Fundamental bias) emanates via the chatter & expectation. Once the actuals/reality kick in, the thick end of the move is done, which is usually when the retailers saddle up.

 

Doesn't mean you can't catch decent pops up & down the ladder, but it maybe requires a little more slack & patience to sit the moves out?

 

You can certainly leg in even if the move sprints away, & it doesn't necessarily mean you have to be an A Grade eco watcher to catch it either.

 

Generally when enough noise is evident, you'll see the technicals developing on your favored timeframe stamp. Use them in harmony & you'll get some meat out of a move.

 

The tech aids you seem to utilize, (pivots-fibs & prev session H-L markers) will still screen your entries/exits on Yen just as easily as they do on Cable

 

Just scroll back on your charts with the appropriate aids onboard to see where you'd have judged your entries/pares etc. They're no different to your observations on your favored pair.

 

Today (on Yen) being a good example.

[steveshutts 10]

Quite often the pace in which these animals move (based on Fundamental bias) emanates via the chatter & expectation. Once the actuals/reality kick in, the thick end of the move is done, which is usually when the retailers saddle up.

 

 

I suppose, keeping an eye on upcoming releases, ie a week in advance?, would maybe help when observing price action on the mid frames(daily and 240). Us retail traders are out of the rumourville bubble, and as you say, most of these moves initiate on the expectations of future data releases and economic status.

Probably a stupid question, but how far in advance do the big players start to factor in upcoming data releases? For instance, this week, there is a lot of US data due out, which is forecast to be dollar bearish. Last week, on Thursday and Friday we experienced a move back up on the Euro and Cable against the dollar. Could this have been traders positioning themselves for this coming week?

I not going to start spending huge amounts of time studying the fundamentals as most of this can be depicted within the charts anyway, as even from a technical stance, we are, in effect trading the fundamental picture most of the time? But by being more aware of upcoming events, i may be able to sharpen my edge???

[Anna-Maria 10]

There's no particular "time frame" for adjudging really Steve, it's more a case of staying abreast of what's on the menu at that specific time.

 

I think Krantz mentioned on another thread, that in the absense of any Tier 1 & 2 data, the market will merely trade off a pure technical bias. And of course, differing agenda's come into play at varying levels according to the trend/range & expectation etc.

 

Most of the activity off the lower channel line/78.6% Fib @ 1.94 was mostly technical to be honest. Sure, players will have one eye on upcoming data & if enough "consensus" errs to the $ neg camp, the impetus will continue shoving it.

 

There were certainly appropriate lower levels to hide your stops on any leg into the higher low activity, the weeks low level being one such bed.

 

But I guess at the end of the day, it comes down to how comfortable you feel re: rolling over and/or holding? I guess are views & opinions from either camp on the risk guage (closing out v/s rolling), and that's very much a personal view based around a number of variables.

 

As you say, a broad sweeping awareness of who is talking up what & why will add to your tool-kit.