Week 3 Trades- Spookywill

[wshahan 10]

atter the 5:30 CST low, prices traded back to yesterday's day session high and failed. I missed that trade.

 

1380.25 is a breakout to the downside. We may get a long opportumity off current levels (1381).

 

Enter long at 1382, Stop 1380.50

Edited April 26, 2012 by wshahan
typo

[wshahan 10]

move stop to 1384, initial target overnight high at 1392.25

Edited April 26, 2012 by wshahan
typo

[wshahan 10]

took a partial profit at 1388 or better for +6

[wshahan 10]

close rest of position at 1387

[wshahan 10]

I went short at 1388.25, stop 1389,50, low risk, high reward again.

[wshahan 10]

close short and reverse at 1387.

 

1387 high volume point, expecting it to hold, or serve as a retest point if we get lower prices first.

[wshahan 10]

for thepast 2 hours, the ES has generated two sided trade without any increase in price. Let us take profits now and await developments.

 

Closed trade at 1388.25,

 

reverse short at 1386.25, stop at 1389.75

 

5 mins to entercorrect typos

Edited April 26, 2012 by wshahan
add on

[wshahan 10]

we had a retest and definative bounce from 1387.50. cover and reverse fom 1388.25

Edited April 26, 2012 by wshahan
typos

[wshahan 10]

I have an order in to take a partial profit at 1398.25

Edited April 26, 2012 by wshahan
typo

[wshahan 10]

order executed at 1398.25 at 3:45 CST.

[gosu 10]

we had a retest and definative bounce from 1387.50. cover and reverse fom 1388.25

 

This is quite adept.

[wshahan 10]

Reply to gosu:

 

Tuesday was in island reversal day which formed a double bottom with the low on April 10th. The day session range was only 10 points, and I simply missed playing the 1:00 run which was the only legitimate trade of the day.

 

Wednesday we had a solid day with of higher value but, again, only an 8.5 day session range and two sided trading through out the session. My long recommendation and my short trades would have been good for roughly 12 points had I taken the trades. Instead I went for “big hits” which did not occur and got stopped out at break +- one half point on all the trades. (See the end of this epistle for some thought on methodology.)

 

That leads us to today. We had a new high in the Globex session followed by a pull back to 1376 and then we rallied strongly to new highs. Today I had decided to protect my profits rather than risk significant reversals. And this I did and I netted 18.25 points per contract. But it was the afternoon range extension in the day session that made the day so successful. And I did get very lucky with the 1398.25 sale in the after market. My ole pappy often said to me, “Son, I would rather see you luck than smart.” Today was such an occasion.

 

As to the reversal you referenced:

 

I would call it highly adept plus (much as I hate to admit it,) lucky. Call it the unconscious expertise, i.e. intuition factor. Actually it was a logical switch with 15 minutes warning. The order to reverse was entered at 11:46 and executed at 11:47. The bars at 11:49 and 11:55 bar just confirmed the likelihood of higher prices. The bungee jump bars at 12:08 and 12:18 were after the fact. I assume you referenced the 11:55 bar on a 5 minute chart, which is what I was using, although I did scale down to a 2 minute chart for the order entry. The order execution times were from time and sales records.

 

On anything from a two minute chart to a 30 minute chart we had a potential reversal in the 11:30 to 12:00 bars CST that caused me to put on the short as a precaution. It was a low conviction trade.

 

At this juncture we had a balanced situation with the high volume point being 1387. Such a pattern is likely to lead to a breakout without being predicative of direction. But remember that I was basically bullish. We had a four minute flat at 1387.50 followed by a 10 minute period back in which volume was building above the high volume point which indicated prices might go higher. So I put in an order to reverse at my cost (1388.25) at 11:45 and it was executed at 11:46. The 11:49 and 11:58 bars were the ones that to me indicated prices were, in fact, highly likely to go higher. There was a reference in the post before the one which drew your comment to a price of 1386.25. That clearly was below prices during this period and was a typo I missed.

 

The references at the beginning of this rather extended poem (more than you wanted to know) and much of the methodology for my trading decisions are based on auction market principles. These are somewhat similar to Market Profile principles to a point. Where as profiles refer to day types and positioning (Island Reversal as an example,) auction market trading depends on high volume nodes (Value area and Point of Control in profile parlance,) and Key reference areas (extremes.) Auction market trading also uses multi day volume structures a great deal more than profile analysis does. I am a student of pattern recognition techniques (the several reversals today) and it is possible for one who has expertise in auction market trading to trade only using bar charts. The eye can learn to distinguish the volume contractions from the bars. Therefore physical profiles become unnecessary. The other tool I use is a volume at price histogram which also was important in determining the low probability of a downside reversal in the afternoon.

 

So I eke by basically by using my brain and let you knowledgeable and sophisticated types fill your screens with oscillators and indicators and moving averages etc. Maybe someday I, too, will become educated. Nah, I am not smart enough.

 

I do appreciate your comments, and your comment was appropriate. I hope I answered your question.

 

Spookywill

[gosu 10]

Reply to gosu:

 

* * *

 

With regard to indicators and such, there is more than one way to skin a cat. The important thing is that you trust your method and I see that you do. While my views are not fully aligned with everything in your post, I can appreciate it nonetheless.

[wshahan 10]

I just went long at 1398, stop at 1395.50.

[wshahan 10]

I also like copper as a trade for today for an alternative to the ES. The Russell has been lagging so might be a good play to catch up. I always like the NASDAQ. So today the boys and girls will play.

 

I bought the pull back below 1400, prices retraced to the top of 10 minute overnight structure, held there and since have climbed back above 1400. We are not that far away from the yearly highs so it would make sense to test them.

 

Copper is making a nice move, 3.8040 breaks it outside to the upside.

Edited April 27, 2012 by wshahan

[wshahan 10]

1398 is yesterday's day session high. At current prices we would get a gap up opening (Mkt. Profie concept.) Standard gap play ala Jim Dalton: If the gap holds, go long; if it doesn't, go short. Real simple, perfect for traders like me.

[wshahan 10]

stop to breakeven plus 1 tick

[wshahan 10]

stopped out at 1398.25

 

It is never that easy to get through a whole number like 1400.

[wshahan 10]

entered short 1397,25

[wshahan 10]

I was real slow reversing,

 

So, cover and go long, 1396.25

[wshahan 10]

Real choppy, see if yesterday's high holds.

 

The prudent should watch for a while. The locals (rumor) are starting to go long according to Ben L.

 

stop is at 1395.00

[wshahan 10]

stopped out of long at 1395, patience or lack there of seems to be guiding my actions this morning.

[wshahan 10]

1393.75 was the top of the 30 min structure that prices broke out of yesterday. That is the low we just reached. It this area holds, I will have to go long. 1389 is support, breaking that level would be a short sell signal.

 

Following my own advice this morning would have been helpful, maybe next time.

 

Right now I want to go long at 1394 or better. Very high risk/reward ratio.

Edited April 27, 2012 by wshahan

[wshahan 10]

long 1394.50, stop at 1392.50

Edited April 27, 2012 by wshahan
typo

[wshahan 10]

raise stop to breakeven plus 2 ticks

 

Very aggressive on the stop placement

 

1397.25 first upside important level

 

ES lagging NQ and Russell. Copper near its highs.

Edited April 27, 2012 by wshahan