Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

DbPhoenix

The Trading Journal: Appendix B

Recommended Posts

I'm ready to start backtesting my revised plan, here in the form of a comparative study. The setup used for this exercise is basically the same as the one described previously in this journal, but with the following adjustments:

 

General Rules

 

-- Positions may be only opened between 2:00 a.m. and 12:00 noon. Any open positions must be closed at 1:00 p.m.

-- All valid entries must be taken.

-- S/R levels may be adjusted any time before a trade (no fair adjusting levels to invalidate a running trade or to call a trade after the fact, and stops once entered may not be moved back).

-- During backtesting, if the sequence of price movements in a bar is unclear, I'll assume the least advantageous outcome.

 

Entry and direction

 

-- Trades are entered after a BO, defined here as any price penetration through a S/R level, followed by a SL/SH above/below that S/R level (entry details specified previously in this journal).

-- After BO, price must return to the S/R level (within a pip) prior to any entry. There will be occasional exceptions to this rule (RET's taken beyond the S/R level), but only at levels specified in advance. (Edit: this is to allow more leeway when price BO through more important levels, and price may not retrace all the way to the S/R level, at least as shown with the time resolution of the chart I'm using. Trade management rules are modified slightly for these trades.)

-- Trade direction is determined by trend direction. If price is in a range, the last trade direction remains in force.

 

Trade management

 

For this exercise, three contracts are traded:

- One contract is closed when price has reached the same distance from the entry point as the distance from the stop level to the entry point, or when SO.

- At that point, the stop is moved to the S/R level for the remaining contracts.

- The second contract is closed once price touches the next S/R level, or when SO. If there is no S/R level available during backtesting, I'll use the same distance as between the last two S/R levels. (Edit: at levels specified in advance as major BO levels, the rules for this contract are the same as for the 3rd contract, below.)

- The remaining contract runs until a signal is received in the opposite direction, or when SO.

- If one or both of the first two contracts has been closed, I may open a new trade (on a valid signal, same trade management rules) even if the third is still running.

 

If past is prologue, other issues will inevitably arise. But this should get me started. (FX_Cowboy)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 21st February 2025.   European PMI Disappoint, Weighing on Euro Before German Elections   The Euro is the first currency to witness the volatility on this month’s PMI reports. The French, German and British PMI data have resulted in the Euro being the worst-performing currency of the European Session so far. However, will the Euro continue to decline throughout the day? European Purchasing Managers’ Indexes The French Purchasing Managers Index was the first European index to be made public. The release resulted in the Euro instantly declining 0.24%. The main concern from the French data was the Services PMI which fell from 48.2 to 44.5. Previously the market was expecting the data to remain more or less unchanged. The weak data triggered the decline which came to a halt after Germany’s PMI was released.     The German Manufacturing PMI read 0.5 points higher than previous expectations and the Services PMI was 0.2 points lower. The data from Germany was a relief for Euro investors and the price rose 0.12% higher. However, traders should note that the price of the EURUSD continues to remain 0.20% lower than yesterday’s close. The price of the EURUSD will now depend on the PMI data from the US. The value of the US Dollar will depend on its PMI release this afternoon and the Consumer Sentiment Index. Analysts expect both the US Services and Manufacturing PMI data to remain above the 50.00 level in the expansion zone. German Elections 2 Days Away Germany is set to hold a general election this Sunday, February 23rd, following the collapse of the coalition of social democrats, liberals, and greens. Given the country's highly proportional electoral system, German polls provide a strong indication of potential government formations post-election. The main concern for Germany is the AFD party who are Far-Right Nationalists. Currently, ahead in the polls are CDU (centre-right), and AFD (far right), followed by the SPD (centre-left). Traders should note that the results of the elections are likely to trigger strong volatility on Monday, but also influence volatility today. Economists may become further concerned if the far-right gains power for the first time due to uncertainty. If the government, similar to France, is unable to form a coalition, this would also be a concern for the Eurozone. Furthermore, the Euro this week is also under pressure from comments from members of the European Central Bank. ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said to journalists that officials need not slow interest rate cuts, as January's 2.5% inflation is still expected to reach the 2.0% target this year. He also advised the European economy is weaker than previously expected. EURUSD - Technical Analysis and Indicators The EURUSD is trading above the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average and 100-bar Simple Moving Average on the 2-hour chart. However, the price is moving away from the key resistance level at 1.05058 indicating the price is losing momentum. The short-term volatility is indicating the price is retracing downwards. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price is trading below the 200-bar SMA and is also forming clear lower lows and highs. Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index is trading above the 200-bar SMA on the 5-minute chart confirming no current conflicts. Currently, the US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day attempting to regain losses from the past 2 weeks. Watch today’s Live Analysis Session for more signals as they develop!   Key Takeaway Points: Weak French Services PMI triggered an initial Euro decline, but German PMI provide a slight relief. However, EURUSD remains lower than yesterday’s close. The Euro’s direction now depends on the US PMI reports, with analysts expecting US data to stay in expansion territory. Sunday's German election could drive volatility, especially if the far-right AFD gains power or if coalition formation proves difficult. ECB official Fabio Panetta suggested no need to slow rate cuts, citing weaker-than-expected economic performance and expected inflation decline. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • BE Bloom Energy stock, watch for a range breakout, target 34 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?BE
    • APLD Applied Digital stock. nice rally, watch for a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?APLD
    • UAL United Airlines stock, watch for a narrow range breakout, target 122 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?UAL
    • WBD Warner Bros Discovery stock, watch for a range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?WBD
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.