Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

TheNegotiator

Economic Data is All Cock and Bull

Recommended Posts

To anyone who tries to trade or invest based on economic releases and can't fathom why the market reacts the way it does, please take a look at this story and the video:-

 

Ignorance Is BLS

 

I've mentioned before that I question the reliability of the data and clearly this guy does too. I'm sure there are many others out there with the same view.

 

The data in question was the just past US Advance Retail Sales release, but it could be applied to many if not all releases.

 

I'm not advocating trading against the number. Indeed we see markets move in the direction of a release at least for a little while. But think carefully about how much weight to give the actual figure over the information that is right in front of you on your charts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
think carefully about how much weight to give the actual figure over the information that is right in front of you on your charts.
Other than the expectation of increased volatility coinciding with the timing of reports there isn't any value in giving any weight to anything other than my charts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
nice video, I think data gathering style has to change somehow...

 

It certainly feels like that to me, although if you were a conspiracy theorist you might suggest they actually want to report inaccurate numbers (or perhaps more to the point- ones which they can manipulate easily).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It certainly feels like that to me, although if you were a conspiracy theorist you might suggest they actually want to report inaccurate numbers (or perhaps more to the point- ones which they can manipulate easily).

 

I do not believe that governments are being realistic or transparent all the times...

There was an old comedy series on bcc (around 15 years ago I guess), "yes, minister" then it became "yes, prime minister"...new generation should watch those series to see how politics work :rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes time and time again it is amazing to witness the market's price move according the lies of the Goverment Statistic & News Media. Like so many blatant ironic paradoxes of modern life "fighting for peace", etc. etc. it seems people get used to it as they are preoccupied with their own personal issues regarding personal and future security for them and their families.

 

I recently saw the new Sterlock holmes film and thought....hmm just like Iraq?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes time and time again it is amazing to witness the market's price move according the lies of the Goverment Statistic & News Media.

 

It's usually because of opportunist traders who hit market off unexpected numbers. I think it's self fulfilling. Numbers traders hit market making it move a lot, other traders are wary and pull orders, numbers traders move the market more, other traders are more wary .....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Did a bit of research for day trading methods that deal with news events.

For what it's worth, here's a video I found:

 

How to Trade the News

 

...It focuses on trading once the event is over - interesting.

 

I guess that video is a bit misleading, or not proper...the candle bar alone (closing higher or lower than opening) does not mean anything. that long shadow says a lot...imvho

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Posts

    • ADMA Adma Biologics stock, watch for a range breakout, target 26 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?ADMA
    • URI United Rentals stock, nice rally off 829 support area, watch for top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?URI
    • Date: 27th November 2024. S&P500 at its 52nd new peak for 2024; USD Firmer, Kiwi & Yen Up. Asia & European Sessions: Wall Street rallied into the close with the S&P500 and Dow registering more record highs with the S&P500 climbing 0.57% to 6045, its 52nd new peak for 2024. The Dow rose 0.28% to 44,860.3 for its 46th record of the year. The NASDAQ advanced 0.63%. Trump named Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative and Kevin Hassett to direct the National Economic Council. Greer was intimately involved in Trump’s first-term trade policy decisions. President Biden announced Israel and Hezbollah have reached a cease fire. Over the next 60 days the Lebanese army and state security will take control of their own territory and Israel will gradually withdraw its forces. FOMC minutes: Minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting revealed officials leaning toward a cautious approach to future rate cuts. All agreed to cut the rate by -25 bps and nearly all thought risks between achieving employment and inflation goals were “roughly in balance.” Upside risks to the inflation outlook were little changed, and while inflation had eased, it remained elevated. The implied December rate continues to hover around a 50-50 bet as we await the PCE price data Wednesday and the crucial jobs report on December 6. The January 2025 rate is priced for a total of 20 bps in cuts, with -75 bps by January 2026. RBNZ cut its cash rate by 50 bps, yet the Kiwi gained as traders analyzed the central bank’s rate outlook and the governor’s remarks. Chinese government approved a 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) bond quota, enabling two state-owned asset managers to issue bonds for funding projects aimed at spurring economic growth. Today: US inflation and economic growth may provide clues to the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Financial Markets Performance: The USDIndex has dropped to currently 106.459. The Yen climbed with USDJPY pulling back to 151.82, while NZDUSD jumped to 0.5900 despite the RBNZ’s 50 bps rate cut. Oil prices stabilized at $68.84, with optimism over delayed OPEC+ output increases balancing the reduced geopolitical risk stemming from the ceasefire. Gold rebounds to 2653.54, with next Resistance at 2660-2664. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • RBLX Roblox stock, pull back to 49.2 gap support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?RBLX
    • UHS Universal Health Services stock, nice rally off the 197 support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?UHS
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.